The Kansas City Star take on the Greinke trade

[BrewersSuperCollector]

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/sam-mellinger/article2694012.html

 

Its a nice article on what that trade means to the Royals now.

[TURBO]

I admit it kind of depresses me that we could have Cain, Escobar and Odorizzi without that trade, but what's done is done...

[fondybrewfan]

Eh; Melvin was all in that offseason. If it wouldn't have been Grienke it would have been someone else. I am still happy how everything turned out.

[3and2Fastball]

I admit it kind of depresses me that we could have Cain, Escobar and Odorizzi without that trade, but what's done is done...

 

And, if the Brewers scouting dept/GM were more talented, Nelson Cruz

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

2011 was a special year. Wish they would have gone a little farther, but it's just another ok year without Grienke. I'm glad those guys they traded are doing well. I'm also glad they reversed course the following year and traded him away when they were out of it. Maybe Segura will figure it out and provide plenty of WAR going forward to balance out the trade. The Royals certainly did better on their end compared to the Indians with the CC trade.

[logan82]

If any scouting department was more talented they would have Cruz. He was waived after we traded him.

 

That is the kind of trade we need to make. Trade a proven veteran for young talent. We haven't made a deal like that for a long time. Last was Gomez, kind of. Before that maybe Sexson.

[DocLuna7]

I don't have time to find the link right now, but the New York Times had an interesting article and some quotes from DM regarding the trade yesterday as well.

[sveumrules]

I admit it kind of depresses me that we could have Cain, Escobar and Odorizzi without that trade, but what's done is done...

 

Lorenzo Cain last 2 years : 278/325/383

Carlos Gomez last 2 years : 284/347/491

 

Alcides Escobar last 2 years : 259/288/337

Jean Segura last 2 years : 272/310/378

 

Odorizzi had a nice year. The main reason he had a nice year is because he finally learned an out pitch from Alex Cobb which he never would have learned had he not been traded by the Brewers (and the Royals). Without that newly learned out pitch he is a stalled out prospect with no way to consistently put away major league hitters.

 

I see no reason for even mild depression reflecting upon consummated baseball trades, but maybe I'm a little biased because I have a cache of exhilirating memories from watching the Brewers win their division for the first time in my adult life during the summer of 2011.

[Thurston Fluff]

I admit it kind of depresses me that we could have Cain, Escobar and Odorizzi without that trade, but what's done is done...

 

Lorenzo Cain last 2 years : 278/325/383

Carlos Gomez last 2 years : 284/347/491

 

Alcides Escobar last 2 years : 259/288/337

Jean Segura last 2 years : 272/310/378

 

Odorizzi had a nice year. The main reason he had a nice year is because he finally learned an out pitch from Alex Cobb which he never would have learned had he not been traded by the Brewers (and the Royals). Without that newly learned out pitch he is a stalled out prospect with no way to consistently put away major league hitters.

 

I see no reason for even mild depression reflecting upon consummated baseball trades, but maybe I'm a little biased because I have a cache of exhilirating memories from watching the Brewers win their division for the first time in my adult life during the summer of 2011.

 

 

I agree you make a trade and move on. I also agree with your assessment that we are no worse off with the two guys we have than the two we would have without the trade. But I disagree on the idea that we are supposed to be happy remembering what happened several years ago. I want more than an occasional post season appearance. We were promised a consistent challenger. While we have been close to that I think we are still a step away from what we were promised.

[1992casey]

I don't have time to find the link right now, but the New York Times had an interesting article and some quotes from DM regarding the trade yesterday as well.

It was probably this one:

 

How a Disgruntled Ace Gave the Royals a Full House

[dlk9s]

But I disagree on the idea that we are supposed to be happy remembering what happened several years ago. I want more than an occasional post season appearance. We were promised a consistent challenger. While we have been close to that I think we are still a step away from what we were promised.

I'm happy remembering what happened several years ago AND want more than an occasional post season appearance. Is that okay?

[JohnBriggs12]

The Royals finished last how many times in the last 15 years? Sooner or later all those high draft picks they accumulated would pay off, either on the field, or via the trading off of guys.

 

The postseason is purely a tournament. Are the Royals the best team in baseball? No. Are they the best team in the AL? No. Can they win the tournament? Sure, any team can.

[coolcool]

I admit it kind of depresses me that we could have Cain, Escobar and Odorizzi without that trade, but what's done is done...

 

And, if the Brewers scouting dept/GM were more talented, Nelson Cruz

 

Two guys with PED scandals would have been a fun time...

[Thurston Fluff]

But I disagree on the idea that we are supposed to be happy remembering what happened several years ago. I want more than an occasional post season appearance. We were promised a consistent challenger. While we have been close to that I think we are still a step away from what we were promised.

I'm happy remembering what happened several years ago AND want more than an occasional post season appearance. Is that okay?

 

Whatever trips your trigger. I just disagree with the "it was all worth it" mantra three years later. Especially for a team that didn't even win it all.

[BrewersSuperCollector]

I could not have sat through the 3 previous years of Lorenzo Cain. Escobar has been basically a boom or bust player at the plate the last few years. Nelson Cruz was passed by every team in the major leagues at one point.

 

I'd make the trade for the chance at something great.

[monty57]

it wasn't just this trade that offseason, it was also the Marcum trade and that we didn't trade away Fielder and Hart (who both were entering their final year) and potentially others like Weeks. I can understand how doing all of this to go "all in" for one year was exciting for fans who have been bombarded with sub-par baseball for most of the team's existence. I just can't understand why management won't understand how going all in for "today" will hurt the franchise's chances "tomorrow," and that eventually some moves have to be made to help "tomorrow."

 

Most Brewer fans are are also Packer fans, and most would never accept from the Packers what they get giddy about from the Brewers. We made big moves that seriously hurt the future of the franchise and got one playoff series win. Some here seem to think that they can now go to their grave satisfied because they saw the Brewers win one playoff series. Talk about a low hurdle.

[DocLuna7]

I don't have time to find the link right now, but the New York Times had an interesting article and some quotes from DM regarding the trade yesterday as well.

It was probably this one:

 

How a Disgruntled Ace Gave the Royals a Full House

 

It was. Thanks Casey.

[Teatoe993]

You can keep stockpiling all the prospects you want for that mythical tomorrow or 'someday' but John Fogerty once told me...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMz1I6KsgXc

[RobertR]

it wasn't just this trade that offseason, it was also the Marcum trade and that we didn't trade away Fielder and Hart (who both were entering their final year) and potentially others like Weeks. I can understand how doing all of this to go "all in" for one year was exciting for fans who have been bombarded with sub-par baseball for most of the team's existence. I just can't understand why management won't understand how going all in for "today" will hurt the franchise's chances "tomorrow," and that eventually some moves have to be made to help "tomorrow."

 

Most Brewer fans are are also Packer fans, and most would never accept from the Packers what they get giddy about from the Brewers. We made big moves that seriously hurt the future of the franchise and got one playoff series win. Some here seem to think that they can now go to their grave satisfied because they saw the Brewers win one playoff series. Talk about a low hurdle.

 

They tried to trade Fielder. There was no market.

[jerichoholicninja]

If the Brewers don't make the Greinke trade, the pitching sucks and they miss the playoffs. If they Brewers had Cain and Escobar this year, maybe they make the playoffs. Whether they make the trade (or trades if you include the Marcum trade) I think they make the playoffs the same number of times over the last 4 years. If you replace Escobar with Segura and add Cain and Odorizzi to the current team, are they really that much better? I don't think so.

[BrewersSuperCollector]

it wasn't just this trade that offseason, it was also the Marcum trade and that we didn't trade away Fielder and Hart (who both were entering their final year) and potentially others like Weeks. I can understand how doing all of this to go "all in" for one year was exciting for fans who have been bombarded with sub-par baseball for most of the team's existence. I just can't understand why management won't understand how going all in for "today" will hurt the franchise's chances "tomorrow," and that eventually some moves have to be made to help "tomorrow."

 

Most Brewer fans are are also Packer fans, and most would never accept from the Packers what they get giddy about from the Brewers. We made big moves that seriously hurt the future of the franchise and got one playoff series win. Some here seem to think that they can now go to their grave satisfied because they saw the Brewers win one playoff series. Talk about a low hurdle.

 

When do you go for it? Half of prospects don't even make it. How long would Brewers fans wait for Brett Lawrie and Lorenzo Cain to make it. Brett Lawrie has done nothing in the majors. We'd still be waiting on Matt Laporta from the CC deal. I'm more pissed that the previous regime didn't trade away Nomo and Nilsson at the end of their contracts. Nilsson had a .400 OBP.

 

How frustrating is it to see the Packers draft every year and won't go after free agents. Charles Woodson didn't want to come to Green Bay. Green Bay was the only place that would take him.

 

Reggie White would have gone back to Philadelphia if they offered him a contract.

[Surhoff5]

What people seem to forget is that Grienke had the fourth highest ERA among the starting pitchers that year. The immortal Randy Wolf had a lower ERA. Grienke's ERA in the playoffs approached 7. I think the Brewers still make the playoffs without him, but the mindset definitely changed after the ZG and Marcum trades.

[The stache]

If the Brewers don't make the Greinke trade, the pitching sucks and they miss the playoffs. If they Brewers had Cain and Escobar this year, maybe they make the playoffs. Whether they make the trade (or trades if you include the Marcum trade) I think they make the playoffs the same number of times over the last 4 years. If you replace Escobar with Segura and add Cain and Odorizzi to the current team, are they really that much better? I don't think so.

 

If the Brewers don't make the Greinke trade, the pitching sucks, and they miss the playoffs.

 

Hmm.

 

Did you know the Brewers actually had a better record in games not started by Greinke and Marcum?

 

The Brewers in 2011 were 96-66

 

In games started by Greinke and Marcum, Milwaukee was 37-24. 13 games over .500.

In games not started by Greinke and Marcum, Milwaukee was 59-42. 17 games over .500.

 

If they had signed two free agent pitchers, or signed one free agent pitcher, and promoted one pitcher from Nashville, the Brewers only needed to go 32-29 in games started by these other two pitchers to win the NL Central. That would have given Milwaukee a 91-71.

 

Consider if the Brewers hadn't given up prospects to rent CC Sabathia, Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. We would have Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Michael Brantley and Brett Lawrie.

 

Would the team we had in 2014 been better had those trades not been made? In a word, yes.

 

Now, I know WAR is hardly a perfect metric. But it's pretty good. So, let's consider who we had at first base, shortstop, center field and right field.

 

First: Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbar. 0.7 and -0.3 WAR. Combined 0.4 WAR

Second: Rickie Weeks and Scooter Gennett 0.2 and 1.3 WAR. Combined 1.5 WAR

Short: Jean Segura 0.6 WAR

Center: Carlos Gomez 4.8 WAR

Right: Ryan Braun 1.0 WAR

Total 8.3 WAR

 

And what we might have had:

 

First: Ryan Braun 1.0 WAR

Second: Brett Lawrie 1.7 WAR

Short: Alcides Escobar 2.4 WAR

Center: Lorenzo Cain 5.0 WAR

Right: Michael Brantley 7.0 WAR

Total 17.1 WAR

 

By the way, that 1.7 WAR from Brett Lawrie, who people think hasn't done anything at the Major League level, was in 282 at bats. And by the way #2, Lawrie is a career is a career .264 hitter vs right handed pitchers, and a career .265 hitter against left handed pitchers.

 

Now, these comparisons assume that everything else is constant, which obviously is an impossibility. These guys on the Brewers would even have slightly different numbers if they played the exact same way, because the performance of their teammates around them affect their numbers. But, if we don't trade our prospects to rent these pitchers, we are better off .

 

Oh, and then there's this:

 

2014 salaries:

Lyle Overbay $1,500,000

Mark Reynolds $2,000,000

Rickie Weeks $11,000,000

Scooter Gennett $504,000

Jean Segura $534,000

Carlos Gomez $7,000,000

Ryan Braun $10,000,000

Total $32,538,000

 

2014 salaries:

Ryan Braun $10,000,000

Brett Lawrie $516,100

Alcides Escobar $3,000,000

Lorenzo Cain $546,000

Michael Brantley $1,500,000

Total $15,562,100

 

So, for $32,538,000 we got 8.3 WAR when we could have gotten 17.1 WAR for $15,562,100.

In plain English, we could have more than doubled the wins above replacement we got from the first base, second base, shortstop, center field and right field positions for less than half of what we ended up playing. Not only that, but we would have gotten younger at every single position in doing so.

 

But yeah, those two playoff appearances we made where we won nothing at all was sure worth sacrificing our draft and develop strategy.

[logan82]

Lawrie could have been traded for a longer term solution.

 

The CC trade also sent over Michael Brantley.

 

 

What people seem to forget is that Grienke had the fourth highest ERA among the starting pitchers that year. The immortal Randy Wolf had a lower ERA. Grienke's ERA in the playoffs approached 7. I think the Brewers still make the playoffs without him, but the mindset definitely changed after the ZG and Marcum trades.

Who was our next starter? That is who we have to compare Greinke to if we want to decide if they are still likely to make the playoffs.

[BrewersSuperCollector]

Lawrie could have been traded for a longer term solution.

 

The CC trade also sent over Michael Brantley.

 

 

 

How could Lawrie been traded for a long term solution? Teams don't trade a top prospect in their organization for another top prospect in another teams. As his career has gone on his value has dropped.

 

Yes, CC was traded for Brantley, who wasn't the prize of the trade at the time. If the Brewers had kept Brantley would his career be the same as it is now. Would he have gotten the opportunity. Braun in left and Hart in right. That leaves CF, and would Gomez have turned into the player that he is now? Would Brantley have turned out with less playing time? Aoki would probably never been a Brewer.

 

The issue with the Brewers is that other than Braun, Fielder and Weeks their 1st. round picks just don't pan out.