2014-2015 Brewers Off-Season Optimism Thread

[pete]

For me Hank has jumped the shark.

 

Wait, that's not optimistic... uh... we're getting closer to ST, maybe some other critter can drift in for free snacks.

[Warning Track Power]

After the quiet Brewer offseason that seems like they have regressed and the horror of the final 5 minutes of the Packer game on Sunday, I need a little sports cheer up...

 

Brewerfan, please get me excited for the Brewers in 2015. On January 20, looking at the rest of the NL and the Central in particular, I find it difficult to imagine much more than a .500 record and a third-fourth place finish. Added to that, I see a farm system that still is behind the Cubs, Pirates and Cardinals which means the Brewers could be in line for mediocrity or worse for a while.

 

While I am usually the eternal optimist when it comes to the Brewers, I am finding it a little hard to be so right now given the MLB roster and the farm system. I want to get pointed back in the right direction of blind optimism. Brewerfan, do your best...

[3and2Fastball]

I'm looking forward to the trade deadline and getting some very good prospects in the Brewers system in trades for Lohse & others, as the Brewers will very likely be out of it by July.

 

Those prospects, in addition to the players brought on board in the Gallardo trade, will be fun to follow. I like the players the Brewers drafted in 2014, too, especially Harrison.

 

So I'm feeling optimistic about the 2017 Brewers when the next wave of players hits. I'll be looking forward to seeing/watching for development from Davis, Gennett, Segura & Nelson, as well as following the minor league Brewers players.....

[sheetskout]

Five Things To Be Excited About (In My Book):

 

1. Braun's thumb - I know we're all worried, but he seems to think he's at the very least in a better position then last season

 

2. Young, Controllable Pitching With Some Upside Remaining - It's difficult to appreciate in most circumstances, but it's a luxury we should all be aware of right now

 

3. Gilbert Lara

 

4. Jonathan Lucroy - Post Braun-saga, we have a player we can all look up too who is mature enough to be our team leader and face of the franchise

 

5. MiLB Depth and System - We're starting to climb out of the cellar with a more respectible crop of youngsters, we may be out of the bottom ten systems in MLB now

[Mass Haas]

Going to merge this into the "2014-2015 Brewers Off-Season Optimism Thread", it's the same concept.

 

Until then, this will help:

 

Reviewing the Brew: Buying Into Jimmy Nelson

[torts]

I am not buying the Pirates. Yes, they've got great farm players, but issues I have with their MLB team for 2015..

 

a. they lost Martin and replaced him with another Yankees catcher. as we all know, catchers can greatly impact the rotations performance, and I think Martin did that A LOT for everyone. it will be interesting to see how Cole/Liriano/Burnett pitch to someone else this year, and if they're able to continue that success they've had in past. Plus, Martin's production for a catcher was top notch for this club last year, and he came up big in key situations. I dont know if the new guy can fill those shoes

 

b. they replaced Volquez with a late 30's Burnett. Not crazy about this, I dont think AJ is going to be anything great, but im sure he'll still manage 190 IP somehow.

 

c. Harrison is an unknown. his 2014 year came out of nowhere. they're putting a lot of faith in him that he will not regress as he is their starting third baseman.

 

d. which brings me to their 2014 starting third baseman, Pedro Alvarez being moved to first base, against his wishes. maybe its what he needs, the guy can crush, but he's been a blackhole of production both at the plate and on the field for the better part of 1 1/2 seasons now. They have Hart listed as an OF, which they have the most depth at.. he's clearly the backup/platoon 1B option as they have barely any other IF options beyond Alvarez having cut Sanchez/Davis.

 

so their infield is Pedro/Hart at 1B, Walker/Kong 2B, Mercer/Kong SS, Harrison 3B. yikes.

[torts]

I AM ALSO EXTREMELY EXCITED ABOUT BASEBALL!!!!! I CANNOT WAIT!

[sheetskout]

I am not buying the Pirates. Yes, they've got great farm players, but issues I have with their MLB team for 2015..

 

The scariest thing to me about the Pirates is that I don't think we've seen what Garrett Cole can do. We're about to get 175+ innings from Cole and they were pretty good when he put up 138.0 and 117.1 respectively. Assuming health I would expect Cole to breakout in his third year.

 

In contrast, I see the Cardinals like you see the Pirates. I think they feel something from letting a strong arm in Miller go for Heyward who I see having just another blah year. That's a net-negative to me there.

 

At this point I am more weary of the Pirates then the Cardinals.

[DocLuna7]

I became very excited last night when at the grocery store I saw the first spring baseball magazines on the shelf of the magazine rack. Always an exciting omen of spring and better things to come.

[torts]

I am not buying the Pirates. Yes, they've got great farm players, but issues I have with their MLB team for 2015..

 

The scariest thing to me about the Pirates is that I don't think we've seen what Garrett Cole can do. We're about to get 175+ innings from Cole and they were pretty good when he put up 138.0 and 117.1 respectively. Assuming health I would expect Cole to breakout in his third year.

 

In contrast, I see the Cardinals like you see the Pirates. I think they feel something from letting a strong arm in Miller go for Heyward who I see having just another blah year. That's a net-negative to me there.

 

At this point I am more weary of the Pirates then the Cardinals.

 

Sure, Cole is probably going to continue to improve, but his improvement is going to probably be offset by AJ Burnett, Liriano regression and Chuck Morton in the rotation. With a different catcher, too. It'll be interesting to see how Cervelli does replacing Martin.

 

I just hope were both right, and that the Pirates arent all they're cracked up to be and the same with the cardinals!

[fondybrewfan]

With the Super Bowl now over it really is time to start getting excited about baseball again. Pitchers and catchers report in about 3 weeks.

 

While I am not optimistic like I was for the 2011 season for example where everyone was expecting big things; I think the 2015 Brewers are more than capable of making a solid run. It will require some bounce back years (Braun & Segura), some good health (Ramirez), and development with the young starters (Nelson & Fiers) but it is not completely unrealistic. If Braun is healthy RF should be miles better and 1st should be much better as well. C and CF might fall back a but just because they were so good last year. Excited for that first Spring Training game.

[Austin Tatious]

Excellent summation, Fondy. I might add needing the bullpen depth to gel. I like some of the bullpen, but the last 2-3 spots are questionable IMO.

[torts]

OMG you guys have seriously NO IDEA how excited I am right now that football is over! Its officially the beginning of the best and longest season of the year, Baseball season is here!

[DocLuna7]

I agree with the above posts. Now that the NFL is finally done (thank God) we can get back to some baseball talk. I still expect the Brewers to bring in one of KRod or Papelbon and maybe another bench guy but either way, very excited for sunny weather and baseball in 2015.

[brwrsfan]

While I'm definitely counting down the days until Opening Day...I'm glad college basketball is hitting its peak season. Especially with the Badgers having a real chance this year.

[Ennder]

Ned Yost got fired because he was a terrible in game manager and took a ton of heat this off season for being just that. I am usually very kind when it comes to second guessing managers because we don't know all the details of what is going on. Yost had a number of times when he didn't just go with what felt the 2nd best option but with what felt like the absolute worst option.

 

I have no clue what to expect out of this team. Lucroy is the only offensive player we have that I'm comfortable projecting at all. Is Aramis just done or was the 2nd half a fluke, 1st half was just like 2013. Will Braun be healthy. Can Scooter hit lefties at all. Which Segura shows up. Can Davis build on his mid season growth from last year or was it just a hot streak etc etc.

 

I can see a playoff team in there somewhere. I can see a really really good bullpen in there too. Unfortunately the team seems really thin on depth.

[RobertR]

Here's Baseball Prospectus's Projected Standings for the NL

 

Washington 91 wins

New York 81 wins

Miami 80 wins

Atlanta 75 wins

Philadelphia 70 wins

 

St. Louis 89 wins

Chicago 81 wins

Pittsburgh 81 wins

Milwaukee 80 wins

Cincinnati 79 wins

 

Los Angeles 97 wins

San Diego 85 wins

San Francisco 84 wins

Arizona 73 wins

Colorado 71 wins

 

Two playoff teams are going to come out of the scrum I bolded and the Brewers are in that group. Frankly, I believe the Padres are going to find that their parts don't actually fit together, especially their outfield defense and they're going to do worse than that projection.

 

I also wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers do acquire a good reliever before the start of the season which should shift them upwards in the projections. Obviously, they need Braun to be the hitter he used to be. And Lind to be able to fake it enough at first base. And, good health. But, they do have a chance.

 

The question I ask is, assuming the Brewers are able to get off to a good start, is whether they're able to pull off the moves that they would need to vault them up? They sure could have used Morneau last year and Doug wasn't able to make a deal. Complacency is one of the problems that this team has to avoid.

[pacopete4]

If the Brewers do get off to a good start, I'd bet on them making a move or two to secure a playoff spot. MA won't let another one of those type season pass him by.

 

The Brewers can win this division. Lots of if's for their team but that's just like any other team. I personally think this will be the year we see a step back from the Cardinals and it'll be for the taking for the Pirates or Brewers. Cubs will have to wait a year as they wont win 80 games.

[pete]

I'd bet 10,000 imaginary internet dollars that Cards don't come within 5 games of that projection. Ditto the Dodgers and 97 wins.

[fondybrewfan]

What about New York's team makes anyone think they are going to be a playoff contender either. Washington and LA will most likely be very good teams and should make the playoffs barring injuries or severe underperformance. The rest of the teams are a big muddled mess and I certainly don't think STL is 8 games better than the rest of the NL. Are the Cubs really ready to fight for a playoff spot too? Personally I think 2016 is the target for them.

[RobertR]

New York does have very good young pitching. And the division is weak, other than the Nationals.

 

Obviously, with the number of teams involved, the Brewers certainly don't have the inside track for the wild card. But, I don't know if anyone does. Good health, good luck, and some astute roster moves are the things that will probably decide the wild card teams.

[Ennder]

The Mets could actually have an elite rotation with DeGrom, Wheeler, Niese, Harvey and Colon. I can see why it puts them in that .500ish range. Those NL projections seem about right to me. Each division has someone who stands out and then a bunch of .500ish teams. The AL seems completely up for grabs to me. I don't see any clear division winner even.

[torts]

POSITIVE MINDS BREED POSITIVE LIVES BRING ON 2015, WE ARE GOING TO DO THIS! 96 WINS! I SAID IT, IT SHALL HAPPEN!

[brewcrewdue80]

Well, its nice they at least credit Milw with 80wins. Espn came out with their rankings and predicted Milw with just 78 wins. When it comes time to look at what or who will be worse this year from last, and who will be better this year from last, I find it hard to see a decline in numbers overall on a season. Lind upgrades the team's offense at 1b undoubtedly. And Pairing the Matchups Lucroy vs LHP you're staring at .800+ batting from that position vs the less than .680OPS of Overbay/Reynolds and seeing 70ks less if not more through the season so 10% more Balls put in play at minimum there.

 

Peralta even though he had a 17win season, his Fip was over 4, he can certainly improve upon that. Garza was victim of 6th/7th innings either via himself, or via the Bullpen 5/12 Inherited runners scored. A little better luck on his end and he's just a 3ERA SP giving the team a true #2 to #1 in stats SP(he's being underrated) Nelson already said he got away what worked for him in AAA, and struggled in his stint in 2014 due to it. Growth in experience from him(his Fip was 3.78 with said struggles) easy to expect improvement and being everybit the equal in 32 starts of Yovani Gallardo. (Career Fip 3.71-3.94 in 2014)

 

Gomez/Lucroy should be the same batters overall in numbers in 15. If they don't collapse that equals improvement but going with them having Big years in 2014 and suggesting that's them meeting expectations. While Weeks nice bat is gone for 2014, so too is his terrible 2b defense, something heralded about for Sardinas. His depth means no Jeff Bianchi PAs and competition to Segura who's batting line cannot possibly get worse than the .551OPS he posted. That right there means more offense from him.

 

That leaves Braun/ARam to mull better/worse or equal. Braun had the worst offensive season he's had thus far in his career. Odds are he's either going to be that player or more than likely better. ARam. Huge numbers vs LHP, poor numbers vs RHP. Avg them out he's still a positive batter at his position. The fact there's 2 potential 3b not named Mark Reynolds to give him added days off may help him stay healthy and produce more.

 

Depth, Reynolds/Overbay/Bianchi/Schafer/ even Weeks aren't going to have the roles for Milw they had in 2014. Parra provides as quality defense as Schafer with a much better batter profile, Reynold/Overbay as mentioned gone equals Lucroy at 1b and Maldonado giving him added Catcher days off of rest. Sardinas replaces Bianchi/Weeks more versatile with SS ability at a cost of power, better defensively. Hector Gomez/Jimenez/ and Jason Rogers also provide some upside maybe even power off the bench vs Ks with Reynolds/Overbay/Weeks...etc.

 

Bullpen. Broxton is as consistent as KRod for a Closer. No Marco Estrada, no Wang, return of Thornburg/Henderson and the addition of Kneble. Wooten more experienced(his Fip was improved but like Garza, 6 inherited runners scored after he left) No Wang or Gorzellany to clog up a 25man roster spot. There's more reason to believe they'll be better as a group than last season.

 

What does that really leave? Managing? Will the small changes made make a difference? Less baserunning errors? Less handcuffed situations in the Bullpen due to Wang/Gorzo's roster spot being open now vs tense situations?

 

Theres just more to believe in this team for 2015 than prior to the beginning of 2014. And I believe I suggested them as 84game winners for 2014. I'm going 85game winners in 2015. The optimism on the Mets Staff is ignoring the potential Peralta/Fiers/Nelson can give Milw. It's an equal amount of boost that I think is being ignored. Peralta had just 2 appearances in the 8th in 2014. Can you believe that? He still managed 198IP. What if he reduces his Fip to 3.65 and does so while pitching 210Innings? He has 20game winning ability, the world hasn't seen the best he has to offer.

[igor67]

I could quibble with those numbers, but it is probably one of the more agreeable projections I've seen from BP over the years, basically everyone outside of the Cards is equal in the Central though the Reds are a half step back. I see the Brewers potential record as more volatile this year than last. Good health and a bounce back from Braun makes 90 wins a possibility, conversely it's not too hard to imagine crash and burn seasons where we end up a 70 wins.