Brewers to pick up Gallardo's 2015 option

[monty57]

Whatever number you want to associate with him, he is an above average MLB starting pitcher. The only real question is whether the franchise will be better off keeping all their starters and putting Nelson (along with potential starters Thornburg and Smith) in the bullpen, or are they better off trading either Gallardo or Lohse (both decent pitchers on the last year of their deal) and putting Nelson in the rotation. The final option would be to trade both, but I highly doubt that will happen.

 

So, would you rather have Lohse, Gallardo, Garza, Peralta, Fiers with Nelson in the 'pen, or Lohse, Garza, Peralta, Fiers, Nelson with a decent player (maybe a 1B) back in trade?

 

It could go even further. If Melvin could land an MLB-ready prospect or two for Gallardo, they could get a league minimum player, which would also free up a lot of money to fill other positions. Hypothetical example: Gallardo is traded for a MLB ready 1B, and then uses the freed up cash in a salary-dump trade for Rollins. We insert Nelson into rotation, have a long-term answer at 1B, Rollins at SS and Segura is utility IF/platoon partner for Gennett.

[brewcrewdue80]

28th in NL WAR, so pretty much a 2 or a 3. On the open market I think he would have no problem getting the Garza contract which was the same $ amount but with a 4 year commitment.

 

WAR is an Accumulating Stat. 32 Starts will accumulate more vs. a SP with 8-18starts.

Jose Fernandez had a 1.1WAR season in 8 starts. Far superior to Yo's if stretched to 32 starts. Gio Gonzalez had identical WAR in 5 less starts. Jorge Dela Rosa had identical WAR while having to pitch in Coors Field. Andrew Cashner 19Starts 1.9WAR. Hyun-Jin Ryu 1.9WAR in 26starts. Josh Beckett 1.9WAR in 20 starts. Tyler Matzek 1.9WAR in 19starts for Colorad. Vance Worley, Tsuyoshi Wada, Gerrit Cole, Jesse Hahn, Mat Latos, Cliff Lee, Gavin Floyd, Bronson Arroyo All NL only names that were on pace or ahead of pace with Yo's WAR value if they made 32Starts. 15 more names makes a 43rd in NL WAR which is identical to my 43rd in ERA if looking up non-qualified ERA SPs in the NL. Theres at least 6 more SP prospects who are looking to graduate to ML rotations in 2015 that would appear to be Yo's equal or better.

 

I just see no reason to hang on to him for his pricetag. That QO after 2015 will likely fall in the 15.5-16.1mil range. Trade him while you can for some kind of future value now, vs. relying on that. Again, the upside isn't there anymore for Yo. He peaked a few years ago and has been declining for 2 seasons now. Why not talk with the Cubs. They are all-in to win 2015. See if that Magic turn scrubs in to SP ACEs will work with Yo. See if you can nab Arismendy Alcantara perfect Switch hitting 2b/SS to play every day platooning Gennett and Segura. Offer them up someone else (Davis,Thornburg,Smith,Henderson,Schafer?)if you can land their 1b prospect Dan Vogelbach which would solve 2 problem areas for a lengthy period of time.

[monty57]

32 Starts will accumulate more vs. a SP with 8-18starts.

 

...and will help the team more. I agree that we should look to trade Gallardo and/or Lohse, but the ability to stay healthy (which both pitchers have a history of doing) is a valuable trait.

 

It doesn't really matter if there are 26 or 30 or however many better pitchers than Gallardo or Lohse. They are above average pitchers who should get something decent in return if we trade one or both of them. Of course, Melvin/Attanasio will see them as necessary for our "playoff run" in 2015, so they will probably keep them and stick our top prospect (Nelson) in the bullpen.

 

I don't believe that Attanasio would agree to trade both of them, but it makes a whole lot of sense to trade one of them.

[umphrey]

28th in NL WAR, so pretty much a 2 or a 3. On the open market I think he would have no problem getting the Garza contract which was the same $ amount but with a 4 year commitment.

 

WAR is an Accumulating Stat. 32 Starts will accumulate more vs. a SP with 8-18starts.

Jose Fernandez had a 1.1WAR season in 8 starts. Far superior to Yo's if stretched to 32 starts. Gio Gonzalez had identical WAR in 5 less starts. Jorge Dela Rosa had identical WAR while having to pitch in Coors Field. Andrew Cashner 19Starts 1.9WAR. Hyun-Jin Ryu 1.9WAR in 26starts. Josh Beckett 1.9WAR in 20 starts. Tyler Matzek 1.9WAR in 19starts for Colorad. Vance Worley, Tsuyoshi Wada, Gerrit Cole, Jesse Hahn, Mat Latos, Cliff Lee, Gavin Floyd, Bronson Arroyo All NL only names that were on pace or ahead of pace with Yo's WAR value if they made 32Starts. 15 more names makes a 43rd in NL WAR which is identical to my 43rd in ERA if looking up non-qualified ERA SPs in the NL. Theres at least 6 more SP prospects who are looking to graduate to ML rotations in 2015 that would appear to be Yo's equal or better.

 

I just see no reason to hang on to him for his pricetag. That QO after 2015 will likely fall in the 15.5-16.1mil range. Trade him while you can for some kind of future value now, vs. relying on that. Again, the upside isn't there anymore for Yo. He peaked a few years ago and has been declining for 2 seasons now. Why not talk with the Cubs. They are all-in to win 2015. See if that Magic turn scrubs in to SP ACEs will work with Yo. See if you can nab Arismendy Alcantara perfect Switch hitting 2b/SS to play every day platooning Gennett and Segura. Offer them up someone else (Davis,Thornburg,Smith,Henderson,Schafer?)if you can land their 1b prospect Dan Vogelbach which would solve 2 problem areas for a lengthy period of time.

 

Health is a skill. Gallardo has thrown 180 innings for 7 years straight. Every year there will be some awesome young pitchers with great sliders and Gallardo has proven to be more valuable than them by not getting hurt.