Brewers to pick up Gallardo's 2015 option

[3and2Fastball]

109 career ERA+

 

Almost a perfect example of the player you should trade for prospects rather than give millions to

[3and2Fastball]

Gallardo was 21st in the NL in ERA this year, 38th in MLB

 

According to FanGraphs, Gallardo was 62nd in MLB in WAR (among pitchers).... he's worth about 1.7 wins above replacement

[brewcrewdue80]

didnt heyman say the brewers were picking up Rami'z option only to get shot down? is there an actual statement from the front office this has happened?

 

Melvin said at the time that he and Attanasio hadn't even talked about Ramirez yet.

 

The Gallardo story is more believable though. Some people still seem to be thinking about player salaries and team budgets as if it were 2005. $13 million for a #2/3 type of starter like Gallardo is basically a bargain these days. ERA around 3.50, WHIP just under 1.3. He's not an ace, but you would think he was Jeff Suppan the way some in this thread are talking.

 

His ERA is nice yes but this is now the third straight season, his Fip being essentially 3.9(3.94,3.89, and 3.94 again this year)

 

I don't believe 3.94Fip is worth 13mil. add to it his horrendous Batting this year vs. what we've been accostumed from him? He's become stagnant as a Pitcher. There isn't any upside with him anymore, only downside. Ks were down more for 2nd straight season in what is the "Deadball" era. Allowed the most hits in a season ever in his career. There's just a lot of signals flashing "Caution" and like in 2013 vs 2014 his luck could result in him being near a 5ERA pitcher again. I hope he's traded away, this year's 3.5ERA may be a sell high we won't have the opportunity to take advantage of once 2015 begins.(sell them the QO tag option if they acquire Yo in the offseason hard! Your 1st rd compensation means we can ask for a 1st rd kind of Prospect in return!)

[brewcrewdue80]

Gallardo was 21st in the NL in ERA this year, 38th in MLB

 

According to FanGraphs, Gallardo was 62nd in MLB in WAR (among pitchers).... he's worth about 1.7 wins above replacement

 

 

1.7WAR in FA money is worth about 11mil? yes? So with his Best ERA season(but similar Fip of the 2 prior) Yo isn't worth the money on his best ERA season. He's definitely not worth having on the team next year for 13mil. Trade has to be coming for whatever you can get!

[Roderick]

Gallardo is extremely underrated by a lot of Brewer fans, probably because he never turned out to be an ace. "Gallardo isn't a true ace" is probably the most obnoxious thing I've heard repeatedly over the last 5 years or so. That's true, but who cares? He's still a very good pitcher. He finished with a 3.5 ERA this year - which is the lowest he's ever had in a full season with the Brewers, by the way. 3.5 ERA pitchers aren't that easy to find, you know.

 

My biggest issue with Gallardo is the high pitch count he racks up so that he can't stay longer in games to help the bullpen out.

[fondybrewfan]

Gallardo's option was a no brainer pick up; Aram's is probably the same. You couldn't get a pitcher of Yo's caliber this offseason without committing far more years and more money.

[dlk9s]

add to it his horrendous Batting this year vs. what we've been accostumed from him?

 

"Yovani, we won't be picking up your option for next season. We appreciate everything you have done for our franchise and wish you all the success in the world wherever you may go."

 

"But I had a good season. I'd love to stay in Milwaukee. I feel I can be a valuable pitcher for you going forward."

 

"We have no doubt you will pitch well next year and for several more years to come. Frankly, it is your hitting that concerns us. You just haven't held up your end of the bargain at the plate, so we need to explore other options."

 

"SCREW YOU! WHEN I COME BACK TO FACE YOU I'M GOING TO SACRIFICE BUNT DOWN YOUR THROAT!"

[monty57]

Picking up the option was a no-brainer. What to do now is the question.

 

The fact that guys of this caliber cost $10-15MM on the open market, while superstars cost $20-25MM is the reason that the Brewers can't run their franchise in a way that relies on paying market rate for their "core." The goofy "price per win" numbers may say players like Gallardo are worth it, but the reality for the Brewers is that they had a record payroll this season, and $13MM would be around 12.5% of that record payroll. We need 25 players, and could only pay eight average-ish players "what they're worth" with our budget.

 

Therefore, with contracts like this, in order to stay within budget we need to either:

 

A) pay a lot of good players far less than they're worth, or

 

B) pay a lot of below average players what they're worth

 

I'd prefer option (A), so we need to stock up on good young prospects and do better in the draft in order to get good young players who are pre-arby/arby (when you can underpay for their services). Trading good, proven MLB players for prospects is a way to supplement the draft to greatly raise the odds that the farm will produce more players who fit into "option A," allowing us to pay market rate for the players who deserve it.

 

Throw in that I don't think we have the ammunition to fill in all the holes to make next year a good team, and that all of our division rivals should be better next year than they were this year, and I believe we should trade one or both of Gallardo and Lohse in order to get some young, cheap talent back. I don't expect us to do this, but I wish we would.

[brewcrewdue80]

add to it his horrendous Batting this year vs. what we've been accostumed from him?

 

"Yovani, we won't be picking up your option for next season. We appreciate everything you have done for our franchise and wish you all the success in the world wherever you may go."

 

"But I had a good season. I'd love to stay in Milwaukee. I feel I can be a valuable pitcher for you going forward."

 

"We have no doubt you will pitch well next year and for several more years to come. Frankly, it is your hitting that concerns us. You just haven't held up your end of the bargain at the plate, so we need to explore other options."

 

"SCREW YOU! WHEN I COME BACK TO FACE YOU I'M GOING TO SACRIFICE BUNT DOWN YOUR THROAT!"

 

You're missing the point. His Contract was signed with his added values as a Batter being a pitcher. It was also being based off Yo being a 200IP/200k type pitcher. He hasn't improved his numbers. He's now at 190IP K/9 below 7 in a year where batters are striking out at alarming rates. His ERA looks nice but his Fip is average. I don't believe he'd get 13mil in FA is my point. Garza in a weaker market with better numbers only got 12.5mil. You want to know what Gallardo's numbers are looking like? Ricky Nolasco's. Who got 4/48 in FA. Who has better Fip numbers than Gallardo but far worse ERA numbers. Not as long a track record, but the numbers Gallardo put up are numbers Nolasco put up in 2013. And a move to the AL? Nolasco became horrendous, something that I believe would befall Gallardo if he had to face a DH filled AL.

 

Just suggesting that we have others to take his place at a far less price. And keeping him at 13mil is such a gamble to get poor results and still nothing for him when he departs. Remember he had 0 trade value in 2013. No owner wanted him at the deadline with whatever he was owed of his 7.75mil contract and having him for 11.25mil the next season. Without having to pick up his option. None. Now getting paid 13mil and no underlying numbers to suggest Gallardo is going to breakout with a better year in 2015 than his 3 previous years? Unless the team trades him this offseason, more than likely the Brewers are just going to watch him walk for nothing after 2015 because he damn sure isn't going to be worth a QO in 2016.

[JohnBriggs12]

If healthy, Thornburg should start next year in Colorado Springs rotation. He was excellent starting the last couple months in 2013 and though he was great out of the pen early this year, he burned out quickly. If Nelson should falter, then go with Thornburg. I just don't think Thornburg can be trusted with a huge workload out of the pen.

[dlk9s]

add to it his horrendous Batting this year vs. what we've been accostumed from him?

 

"Yovani, we won't be picking up your option for next season. We appreciate everything you have done for our franchise and wish you all the success in the world wherever you may go."

 

"But I had a good season. I'd love to stay in Milwaukee. I feel I can be a valuable pitcher for you going forward."

 

"We have no doubt you will pitch well next year and for several more years to come. Frankly, it is your hitting that concerns us. You just haven't held up your end of the bargain at the plate, so we need to explore other options."

 

"SCREW YOU! WHEN I COME BACK TO FACE YOU I'M GOING TO SACRIFICE BUNT DOWN YOUR THROAT!"

 

You're missing the point. His Contract was signed with his added values as a Batter being a pitcher.

 

http://i.imgur.com/S4Q9f.gif

[chadomac]

Doug said this morning on 1250AM that they will probably pick up the option but it hasn't officially been decided yet.

[monty57]

Doug said this morning on 1250AM that they will probably pick up the option but it hasn't officially been decided yet.

 

That was probably an innocent comment, and I don't want to make a mountain out of a molehill, but does the Brewer management have a clue as to what direction they're headed? If we are to believe what Attanasio and Melvin are telling us, they haven't decided on what they're doing with their manager or coaches, they haven't even talked about the Ramirez option, they need to interview players to see if anyone gave up on the season, and now they haven't decided on Gallardo's option.

 

I guess this is all part of the two paths they can take that is not a crossroads.

[FVBrewerFan]

"Gallardo isn't a true ace" is probably the most obnoxious thing I've heard repeatedly over the last 5 years or so. That's true, but who cares? He's still a very good pitcher.

 

I don't think anyone has used "Yo" and "ace" in the same sentence for at least a couple years now. Years back, it was talked about a lot because he was the best pitcher on the staff. And it was a legit debate over whther he was a "true #1" type of pitcher.

 

I think we've all come to accept Yo isn't an ace, "true" or otherwise.

[TooLiveBrew]

Gallardo was 21st in the NL in ERA this year, 38th in MLB

 

According to FanGraphs, Gallardo was 62nd in MLB in WAR (among pitchers).... he's worth about 1.7 wins above replacement

So he was basically a #1^1/2 this season by ERA. It's surprising to me that a fringe-#1 ERA season isn't even north of 2.0 WAR

[Baldkin]

Gallardo was 21st in the NL in ERA this year, 38th in MLB

 

According to FanGraphs, Gallardo was 62nd in MLB in WAR (among pitchers).... he's worth about 1.7 wins above replacement

So he was basically a #1^1/2 this season by ERA. It's surprising to me that a fringe-#1 ERA season isn't even north of 2.0 WAR

 

Well, that puts him in the #3 starter region which makes him an average starter... which would be about 2.0 WAR. B-R, which uses ERA (fangraphs uses FIP) has him worth 2.4 WAR.

[TooLiveBrew]

Gallardo was 21st in the NL in ERA this year, 38th in MLB

 

According to FanGraphs, Gallardo was 62nd in MLB in WAR (among pitchers).... he's worth about 1.7 wins above replacement

So he was basically a #1^1/2 this season by ERA. It's surprising to me that a fringe-#1 ERA season isn't even north of 2.0 WAR

 

Well, that puts him in the #3 starter region which makes him an average starter... which would be about 2.0 WAR. B-R, which uses ERA (fangraphs uses FIP) has him worth 2.4 WAR.

Maybe I'm being dense... 15 teams in the NL, 21st in ERA... 21/15 = 1.4. Thinking of it in terms of like a fantasy draft, he'd be one of the first guys taken in the second round, so a #2. That was my thought process, anyway.

[TURBO]

I don't think he would be picked in the second round of a fantasy draft.

 

I have 5 leagues and he was drafted in the following rounds:

 

11th

13th

11th

13th

13th

[trwi7]

Why are we comparing actual baseball to fantasy baseball? Unless the pitcher is an absolute stud, think Kershaw or King Felix, they're not being drafted in the first few rounds.

 

Just looking back at the draft I was in Johnny Cueto went in the 10th round. Corey Kluber went in the 14th round. Mike Leake went in the 20th round. Tim Hudson 21st round.

 

If you're going by round you'd have to count all the pitchers that went ahead of him and then place him like that but even that isn't a good measure. Just a quick look it looks like Gallardo was around the 50th SP in my league which puts him as a lower tier #2.

[TooLiveBrew]

Why are we comparing actual baseball to fantasy baseball? Unless the pitcher is an absolute stud, think Kershaw or King Felix, they're not being drafted in the first few rounds.

 

Just looking back at the draft I was in Johnny Cueto went in the 10th round. Corey Kluber went in the 14th round. Mike Leake went in the 20th round. Tim Hudson 21st round.

 

If you're going by round you'd have to count all the pitchers that went ahead of him and then place him like that but even that isn't a good measure. Just a quick look it looks like Gallardo was around the 50th SP in my league which puts him as a lower tier #2.

I was just trying to explain my line of reasoning. I didn't say Yo would be taken in the second round of a fantasy draft, but just wanted to point out that if you distribute the top NL SP ERAs one by one over the 15 NL teams, Yo'd be the 6th player 'distributed' in the second go-round the league, based on where his ERA ranked.

[Baldkin]

Well, that puts him in the #3 starter region which makes him an average starter... which would be about 2.0 WAR. B-R, which uses ERA (fangraphs uses FIP) has him worth 2.4 WAR.

Maybe I'm being dense... 15 teams in the NL, 21st in ERA... 21/15 = 1.4. Thinking of it in terms of like a fantasy draft, he'd be one of the first guys taken in the second round, so a #2. That was my thought process, anyway.

 

Nope, you're not being dense, I'm just being illiterate.

[brewcrewdue80]

Well Yo ranks 21st in NL SP ERA of those that Qualified. Add Non-Qualifiers I count 43rd in ERA of NL Starters. Which then puts that 15 ranking as him being a bottom of a #3 SP Just above being a Top #4 SP.

 

Now there's something to be said about making 32starts over 8-18 and beating Yo's ERA. But a number of SPs if healthy and not visiting Dr. Andrews would have beaten Yo's 21st ranking if they qualified.

 

Now, I have a different idea of what's a #1, #2, #3 and so on it doesn't have to just be based on ERA. Sometimes Aces who can throw 110-120 pitches are left in a game that if had been tight would have been pulled. But instead to give tired bullpens rest they take a 6IP 1ER outing and leave them to give up 4Runs in the 7th inning for a rather pedestrian 7ip 5ER outing(6+ERA) Yo isn't that type. He's lucky if he's not approaching 110 pitches by the time he completes the 6th inning. Much less pitching in to the 8th inning or the elusive CG for him.

 

Names of players with higher ERA than Yo that I'd take over Yo in a heartbeat:

Wily Peralta, Zach Wheeler, Gio Gonzalez, Cliff Lee, Gerrit Cole, Mike Leake, and Homer Bailey So from 43 we're now approaching 50.

 

Yo is what we expect a #3 SP. But he's never what we hoped he'd be which was a #2. Pitching 8 or 9innings at least an average of once a month. Yo is that High Floor, Low Ceiling SP at this point. And that is why we should trade him. He doesn't possess any more value than now. And him being removed from the rotation in a deal, his presence really won't be missed. Since his Great outings are 6IP 0ER or 7IP 1-2ER. Nelson has provided that so has Fiers. It'd be different to lose Yo if he had 8IP outings but he pitched in the 8th twice this year and once all of last year. Not one 9th inning pitch. He's just an average #3 to me, who's K/9 rate has fallen, and that is a red flag imo. He's on his way to being a #4.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

A one year deal is not a big risk. Even if you think it's an 11mm pitcher and you are paying him 13mm. You can't get that without at least a 3 year deal on the open market. At that price, you can keep him, trade him, make a qualifying offer at year end...there are plenty of options. Unless he gets hurt, he's not going to fall off a cliff at that age in one year. Picking up the option is an absolute no brainer.

[umphrey]

28th in NL WAR, so pretty much a 2 or a 3. On the open market I think he would have no problem getting the Garza contract which was the same $ amount but with a 4 year commitment.

[brewmann04]

its a given they resign him but sure they be looking to move a starter down the road .