2015 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation

[Austin Tatious]

 

This draft you need to get Aiken, Allard, Nikorak otherwise turn attention to Whitley, Betts, or any of there other high ceiling high school bats. Be nice if some of the ones like Cameron who are projected earlier drop down

 

I like this.

[reillymcshane]

I want to again thank everyone who posts info on the players, opinions, mock drafts, reviews, etc.

 

The amateur draft is such a blank slate, it's nice to have resources turn to.

 

So again, thanks.

[nate82]

[sarcasm]The Brewers are going to take with their first pick in the draft RHP Ben Ancheff.[/sarcasm]

 

Ben Ancheff

[Eye Black]

With one week left until the draft, I am curious what players others are favoring at this point? So pretend you get to set the Brewers draft board next Monday. Lets assume for the purposes of the exercise we knew these eleven guys (not necessarily in this order) were going to be off the board with the first eleven picks of the draft:

 

Dansby Swanson

Brendan Rodgers

Tyler Jay

Dillon Tate

Alex Bregman

Daz Cameron

Kyle Tucker

Carson Fulmer

Andrew Benintendi

Trenton Clark

Tyler Stephenson

 

So if you know those eleven players are gone, what would be your top four remaining players, and in what order? Worst case scenario you would get one of your top four guys, so who are they?

 

My Brewers Draft Board right now would be:

1) Kolby Allard

2) Garrett Whitley

3) Brady Aiken (assuming the medicals weren't completely discouraging)

4) Still TBD

 

I like Mike Nikorak for the fourth spot, but I'm slightly concerned with reports that he regressed a little during the season (not that unusual for a high school pitcher). I also think the baseball appears easier to pick up out of his hand than some of his counterparts. Last thing going against Nikorak is that some quality RHP's are projected to likely still be available at the #40 pick.

[narwhalattack]

Allard and Whitley are my top 2, with Nikorak a close third. I'm not sure about Aiken because I don't know much about his medicals. But assuming that he'll be fine, it would be very tough not to pick him. But it all depends on how healthy he'll be.

[Austin Tatious]

For a comp for Brady Aiken, in 2014 at one point, Jeff Hoffman was considered to have potential as the first pick in the draft but also needed to have TJ surgery for the ulnar ligament. Even though he couldn't pitch in 2014, the Jays still took him 9th. He started pitching a week or two ago in 2015.

 

Isn't that a comp for Aiken? Different thoughts?

 

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Hoffman

[WV Brew]

I am against taking Aiken with the 1st pick. It is too risky there. Take a look at Stephen Strasburg, now in his 6th year after Tommy John. He may be finished. ERA of 6.55, FIP at 3.96 the worst of his career, WHIP 1.721 the worst of his career, K/9 down to less than one per inning. Okay, maybe he just threw too many innings last year but people are now comparing him to Mark Prior. There are other players who can be taken. Maybe if he's available at the comp pick but not otherwise.

 

These TJ issues crop up very often in 6-8 years after surgery. If a second surgery is required, the player is almost universally done as a baseball player.

[Austin Tatious]

Thanks, WV. That's a fair concern. But is the Strasburg collapse related to TJ or something else?

 

It doesn't seem clear. Here's a link mentioning a neck problem, not his elbow, and that he still has a heater

 

http://www.federalbaseball.com/2015/6/1/8700007/whats-wrong-with-the-nationals-stephen-strasburg-problem-is-no-one

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Mark Prior had his career derailed by TJ surgery. He had weird mechanics and a series of injuries, including an Achilles and a shoulder.

 

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Prior

 

The Brewers' inability to develop 1-2 front line, elite starters has really set back the organization. I like Peralta and Nelson as mid rotation guys, which is a semi-victory. But we need to identify top of the rotation makeup, mechanics, and stuff.

 

It hasn't happened, and it's been a downfall. Sheets could have been our guy as an ace but for injuries. Getting an ace starter reminds me of getting a franchise quarterback in the NFL. You need one. Can Aiken be a gift? It may be a risk but guys come back from TJ all the time if patience is a virtue. Stash him for 2015 and work him up starting in 2016.

[splitterpfj]

If it's a pitcher, take whoever you think is the safer bet between Allard and Aiken, and if it's a hitter, I like Ian Happ.

[narwhalattack]

For a comp for Brady Aiken, in 2014 at one point, Jeff Hoffman was considered to have potential as the first pick in the draft but also needed to have TJ surgery for the ulnar ligament. Even though he couldn't pitch in 2014, the Jays still took him 9th. He started pitching a week or two ago in 2015.

 

Isn't that a comp for Aiken? Different thoughts?

 

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Hoffman

 

The thing is, Aiken reportedly had an abnormal UCL to begin with. So there is a greater uncertainty about how well he'll recover and stay healthy.

[Raw Biz]

Aiken's odd UCL scares me so I'm staying away in the 1st, though I would take him in the supplemental round if he was there (highly unlikely).

 

I'm looking at:

 

1) Allard - I know back injuries can be scary and sometimes linger, but I think this kid is special. It also doesn't appear as if his injury is as significant as Aiken.

2) Nikorak

3) Happ

4) Whitley

 

I'd prefer to target pitching but it really should be BPA.

[narwhalattack]

Apparently Garrett Whitley will work out for the Brewers this week, and has worked out for the Braves and the Yankees before.

 

[Mudville9]

1-Whitley

2-Happ

3-Allard

4-Betts

 

I think Allard might be the best of the bunch, but back injuries scare me...just not as much as irregular UCL's. (Aiken)

[SRB]

This seems like a good year to gamble on an injury risk, because it's a shallow draft and so at #15 we wouldn't be passing on a bunch of players it's hard to pass on. Plus, I would much rather gamble on talent-with-an-injury-risk than a guy with better medicals but lower odds of turning into something great. As an extreme simplification, I would rather have a guy with a 30% chance of staying healthy and a 100% chance of being a frontline pitcher, as opposed to a guy with a 100% chance of staying healthy and a 30% chance of being a frontline pitcher, even though in one sense the expected value is the same.

 

With the guys you listed gone, my draft board would be:

 

1) Aiken

2) Matuella

3) Allard

4) Happ

 

(I should add that this in contingent on the injured guys agreeing to reasonable and maybe even under-slot signing bonuses - no go if Aiken wants top-5/top-10 money)

[heresrobin]

Kolby Allard

Garrett Whitley

Mike Nikorak

Ian Happ

 

Still trying to figure out what I think of Jon Harris.

[heresrobin]

Fangraphs article from Tuesday regarding Aiken:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/brady-aikens-medicals-are-out-situation-is-still-cloudy/

[splitterpfj]

My last shot at it before the draft - the one big wildcard that I couldn't possibly know would be the demand$ from each player. Guys will move up and down based on the cash too.

 

http://www.baseballintheblood.com/?p=1199

[82brewcrew11]

First, great effort and better than anything I could ever put together. I will say that unless the Braves are blowing smoke, I have been told they will not be taking Stephenson at 14. Also, if still on the board, Harris will not last past 9 and the Cubs. Also, Allard will probably go much higher than 18 and will most likely be off the board before the Brewers pick.

[SRB]

My last shot at it before the draft - the one big wildcard that I couldn't possibly know would be the demand$ from each player. Guys will move up and down based on the cash too.

 

http://www.baseballintheblood.com/?p=1199

 

That would be good.

 

I want Aiken, but given the somewhat long odds the Brewers take him, Whittley or Allard seem like the most ideal probable-picks.

[splitterpfj]

Thanks, 82brewcrew11. The one thing I really thought I got wrong when I did that mock was Allard. The problem is, I truly have no feel for who will take him. I thought about him for several teams, but there was always someone else who fit too, so I guess I turned him into Aaron Rodgers in the green room.

[splitterpfj]

From Jim Callis, I've heard him say this a few times now in interviews, he really seems to think it's a college pitcher for Milwaukee, one way or another.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/128740596/three-shortstops-land-atop-latest-mock-draft

[colbyjack]

For those interested in seeing Jon Harris for themselves, he'll be pitching for Missouri State on ESPN at 3:30 CT. Tune in if you have a chance as he's been carving batters up all spring.

 

And if you want to see a couple of top guys for next year, watch the Virginia/Maryland game at 3pm on ESPN U. Mike Shawaryn (probably my favorite arm for 2016) will be facing UVa's Connor Jones.

[narwhalattack]

From Jim Callis, I've heard him say this a few times now in interviews, he really seems to think it's a college pitcher for Milwaukee, one way or another.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/128740596/three-shortstops-land-atop-latest-mock-draft

 

I'm not really sure why, though. Ray Montgomery doesn't usually go with conservative picks. Perhaps it's because he thinks a quick to the majors guy will speed up the rebuilding process?

[Eye Black]

From Jim Callis, I've heard him say this a few times now in interviews, he really seems to think it's a college pitcher for Milwaukee, one way or another.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/128740596/three-shortstops-land-atop-latest-mock-draft

 

I'm not really sure why, though. Ray Montgomery doesn't usually go with conservative picks. Perhaps it's because he thinks a quick to the majors guy will speed up the rebuilding process?

Baseball America's John Manuel agrees with Callis in today's BA Mock 5.0 by stating, "After last year’s high-risk draft, Milwaukee will go more conservative on the college tip. They’re tied closely to college righties such as Louisville’s Kyle Funkhouser and Cal Poly Pomona’s Cody Ponce."

[splitterpfj]

This figures, it's Harris' worst game of the season, and Benintendi took him deep.