2015 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation

[Eye Black]

A lot of good comments above, and really appreciate Colbyjack's sharing his insight. A few random thoughts/observations...

 

Regarding Kevin Newman, I would be disappointed if he was being targeted by the Brewers. I realize he hit well in Cape Cod the past two summers, but there are doubts about him sticking at shortstop, and at he lacks any hope of developing enough power to become a star at another position.

 

Of the position players likely to go in the first round, I would bet on Ian Happ becoming the most consistent MLB hitter. I realize Brendan Rodgers has a much higher ceiling with more power, and at a premium position, so Rodgers clearly has more overall value. I do think it is worth noting however that Happ is young for his grade while Rodgers is old for his. Happ has three years of college baseball under his belt, but he is just under two years older than Rodgers.

 

I agree that pitching should be the Brewers focus in the first round. It seems likely there will be good options available. Based on Montgomery's track record, I expect the Brewers to take a pitcher with the first selection. If guys like Allard, Nikorak, Funkhouser, and Bickford are available at the Brewers selection, they will have a tough decision. Out of that group I think I would prefer Allard or Nikorak.

[LouisEly]

I think you're just paranoid. The draft last year should alleviate your concerns about a low-floor guy; even the year before when without a first round pick they went upside with Devin Williams and Tucker Neuhaus in the 2nd round. Even in 2012 they went upside with Roache and Coulter, and Taylor in the 2nd round. But you have to look at the draft in it's entirety; with a sandwich pick at #40 they may draft a guy at #15 a little higher than he should go to have some extra money to go after some high-upside tough signs at #40 and #55. There was some speculation last year that was part of the reason behind Medieros. With three of the top 55 picks they may not want to put all their eggs in one basket at #15.

 

Per my earlier post, I don't think that the Brewers drafted Jungmann and Bradley because they thought they were quick-to-the-majors, high floor guys. I think they drafted them, and I seem to recall Melvin alluding to this but have no proof, because they were looking for ground-ball pitchers because Miller Park is such a home run friendly ballpark. In 2011 Bradley only gave up 1 home run in 400 plate appearances. Jungmann only gave up four in over 500 plate appearances; he only gave up 81 hits and 16 extra base hits in 140 IP (struck out 126, suggesting that there were a lot of ground ball outs).

[splitterpfj]

The draft last year should alleviate your concerns about a low-floor guy; even the year before when without a first round pick they went upside with Devin Williams and Tucker Neuhaus in the 2nd round. Even in 2012 they went upside with Roache and Coulter, and Taylor in the 2nd round.

 

This is absolutely true, but one thing to keep in mind - Bruce Seid is gone, Ray Mongomery is in. The Brewers went with upside recently, and I think they should again this year too, but it's a new decision maker.

 

The question is, what does Montgomery think?

[brewcrewdue80]

Alright my procrastinating butt sat down and taking off a BA top 200 draft list I'm going to give my amateur scouting for top 50 and up. Try for 5 each day.

50>Juan Hillman LHP HS

High Leg Kick, inconsistent with it. Flat Ball flight. Poor Control not working low in the zone. Little movement on ball plane. Pass

 

49>Jake Woodford RHP HS Almost no video to go off of. Incomplete reads as a strong commit to Fl

 

48>Peter Lambert RHP HS

Like his follow through. Hopefully matures to where he works higher than 89-93. Solid movement with Curve. Fastball location in lower half. Definitely consider with 2nd pick for sure 3rd. Great prospect video

 

47>Austin Smith RHP HS

Loose Motion. Little erradic. Breaking pitches have solid movement. I envision more Relief Pitcher than SP barring more control. Motion and movement is there to be positive for 3rd rd selection.

 

46>Joe McCarthy OF Col

Strong bat speed, strong pull swing. Low extension to hit to all fields. Golfing yank swing motion. MLB.com claims soft arm and a LF requirement. Doesn't suit me under that circumstance with that swing. I'd think low outside would be worn out and he'd not hit it.

 

Overall in this 5. Lambert then Smith simply because SP visions with Lambert and RP visions with Smith. Woodford being Incomplete can't rank. Pass on Hillman&McCarthy. McCarthy to me would be more of a 5th-7th rd College pickup. Prospect video also listed 1b in one of them I watched. I'd consider that for him in that value of a round. Legit Pull power LineDrives that get out in a hurry. But again Seems low extension to cover outside of the plate and opposite field.

[WV Brew]

Haudricourt JS Article

 

Mentions Whitley and Plummer as being associated with the Brewers.

[LouisEly]

The question is, what does Montgomery think?

If you look at Arizona's picks the last four years, he seems to be an upside guy and likes pitching in the first round. They took a chance on Toussaint last year at #15. In 2013 they went with upside mid-major college arms in Shipley (Nevada-Reno) at #15 (BA had him at #8) and seem to have found a winner so far at #36 with Blair (Marshall). 2012 they weren't afraid to go HS catcher at #26, and then 2011 was the Bauer, Bradley, Chafin draft.

 

I feel confident with that track record.

[splitterpfj]

My latest mock - how did I do?

 

http://www.baseballintheblood.com

[Eye Black]

My latest mock - how did I do?

 

http://www.baseballintheblood.com

Thanks for sharing Splitter, certainly not an easy year to try and project the first round, so kudos for taking on the challenge.

 

I see you have Kyle Tucker listed at #5 to the Astros, and it reminded me I wanted to bring him up at some point. I realize #5 is in line with where he has been projected by some, and he is certainly a realistic candidate to go in the top 10. I also realize he is 6'4" with an extremely thin frame (175 lbs.), so there is room for added strength and projection. He also appears to have good bat speed and swings from the left side. What makes me wonder about him as a top five or top ten pick is he appears to have some flaws in his swing. My problem is mainly with his footwork, watch his at bats in this

. His weight transfer seems erratic from swing to swing with him completely picking his back foot off the ground on several of the swings. Obviously it is something that can be worked on, but I am a little surprised a guy that is a candidate to go in the upper third of the first round wouldn't have a more repeatable and balanced swing.

 

EDIT: I realize scouts that do this for a living see 100's of swings from these guys, and judging anyone off of a 2:00 minute video isn't remotely close to fair. I am just genuinely curious about it because there are several other high school hitters that appear more polished (again judging off of short video clips). Interested what others think?

[brewcrewdue80]

Eye Black, I'm looking at the video and like his lower body motion. The timing of it with a swing that is rather flat through the zone, should translate to some real powerful shots getting both lower+upper in his contact. You've gotta ignore some of the swings with pitch location, apparently just putting the poor pitched ball in to play. I see the swings he's locked in on(i want to say 5 of them) and 3 were crushed, 1 was pulled a little to heavy, and the other was hit hard but without the loft/ more of a hard hit ball to 2nd maybe through a hole.

 

The motion is very solid through the zone and unlike my dislike of Tyrone Taylor he's able to not only make that powerful swing flat through the zone, but do so with a lower body that adds to it. Taylor's wide leg stance and almost 0 lower body results in only an upper body swing to contact. He has 6 doubles, 1 triple, and 0 HRs now in 40hits and 150+PAs. So 33 singles to 7 XBH and 0 HRs.

 

Tucker is hitting the ball with more power in a better swing than Taylor has today and he's 6'4" with a frame to fill.

 

Always remember size. It seems to me in Golf and Baseball a sweet spot seems to be at 6'2" to 6"6" (Carlos Gomez 6'3"/Braun 6'2") These other high school hitters you're looking at may not be of that height? Maybe the weight too. Yes 175lbs is thin at 6'4" Are the other HS hitters 6'2" and 210? basically looking at being filled out with weight? Imagine when you put Tucker's frame next to a filled out frame of 6'2" and the avg HR distance of both are equal? You suddenly drool on 385feet each on both turning in to 415feet for Tucker and 395 on the other batter. The HR upside will be quite a bit higher for Tucker than others.

 

I did watch video again. It was about the 5th pitch he seemed to turn it on but youre right he does have some off balance....But then there's this:

 

How sweet is that swing in the middle of the zone. His feet was also more balanced during a game situation. What a dream he would be to fall to Milwaukee honestly.

 

Your video is from Aug. This one if of May 10th. Coach is telling him swing to scenarios so pay attention to which swings you're evaluating him at.

He's rolling over his swing a little much in this video. And yes, again has some happy feet unlike the game video.

Still a fan of his swing through the zone. Maybe when he fills out and grows strength, he won't have so much happy feet, because he'll learn/realize he's strong enough to just allow his swing create the power and just plant more balanced on his front foot when swinging.

[colbyjack]

LouisEly, you've got it on Thompson. We had one of our guys see him 2 weeks ago and said he's not a third baseman. He doesn't have the arm to stick there first and foremost, and may not even open his pro career at the position.

 

Eye Black, I'm with you on Kevin Newman. We have him rated as more of a 3rd-round prospect, as do other scouts/directors/crosscheckers we've spoken with. However, there are others who still like him for the first round. That said, I think the ESPN crew (nothing against them) has somewhat taken the report on him and ran with it more than other resources has. I would be surprised, and disappointed, to see the Brewers take him.

 

Garrett Whitley is an incredibly athlete NE kid who hasn't had a ton of exposure at national events. So while he's loaded with tools he does have to prove he can hang with the big boys on a daily basis. Plummer on the other hand is a very polished left-handed hitter. He's an ok overall athlete and is very, very patient at the plate (almost to a fault). His arm will limit him to LF.

[brewcrewdue80]

My latest mock - how did I do?

 

http://www.baseballintheblood.com

 

 

Seems very reasonable. I'd probably switch Pittsburgh's and Oakland's picks. With Cole/Glasnow/Taillon. An advance polished infield 2b bat would seem a great fit for what they've got as top prospects. Happ could move quickly and replace Walker at 2b with Hanson at SS. Could try to envision a 2017 date to coincide with Liriano's last year, McCutchen's last guaranteed year(option likely picked up and traded that offseason)

 

I'd think of college bats Happ is the most likely quickest to advance and Pittsburgh's Window of opportunity meaning McCutchen+Cole likely ends after 2017. Not that they won't be playoff contenders, just losing the talent of McCutchen and maybe having to part with Cole too for his expense. Man, it's embarrassing what they've done with current talent and future talent in prospects, nevermind what a trade of McCutchen or Cole would get them for 2018.

Of course that's if Happ lasts that late. I'd just be surprised a team doesn't take him in the top 15 because how his bat is. The exact reasons I'd love Happ on the Pirates, is likely the exact reason a team takes him earlier.

[splitterpfj]

I'd think of college bats Happ is the most likely quickest to advance

 

I really like Happ, in fact, I'd love it if the Brewers took him. I have this feeling the Brewers will take a pitcher now, because one way or another, a guy or two we didn't think they could get, will probably be on the board for their pick.

 

You can't win without pitching, and you can't buy the best free agents in this market, so I would imagine the choice would be an arm if someone really stands out in the eyes of Montgomery.

 

I honestly think Happ should go ahead of the Brewers' pick, so if he doesn't, I'd love it if Milwaukee took him. I have this lousy feeling he'll fall to St Louis, and then be a pain in the butt for years.

[LouisEly]

Is Vandy's Rhett Wiseman a 3rd round substitute for Happ? Happ had a little better numbers, but it could be argued that Wiseman played in a tougher conference against better pitching.

 

Speaking of the 3rd round, if Austin Allen is good enough to stick behind the plate, I wouldn't mind his LH bat in the system.

[splitterpfj]

In their new podcast, Callis/Mayo had Atlanta taking Kolby Allard right ahead of the Brewers, with Milwaukee then selecting Tyler Stephenson.

[Eye Black]

I try to resist the temptation to link every mock draft that comes up, but this Fangraphs Mock Draft (v2.0) is especially useful because it includes video links to all of the prospects listed.

 

15. Brewers – Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt

 

This would likely be where Buehler’s slide ends, with the Brewers waiting to see which player slides to them. They’ve been tied to Ian Happ, Tyler Stephenson, Andrew Benintendi and Jon Harris.

If that is how the draft actually plays out, I will be a little disappointed. If Kolby Allard, Mike Nikorak, and Garrett Whitley are all available at #15, I really hope they take one of them. I would be ecstatic if the Brewers some how ended up with both San Clemente kids, Allard and his Catcher, Lucas Herbert, with their first couple of selections.

[splitterpfj]

Eye Black, if the Brewers took Buehler, it certainly wouldn't be a reach, and for all we know, he may have a great MLB career ahead of him. For some reason though, he just hasn't moved me - I don't know why not, there's no reason not to like him for the Brewers, but if they take him, I'll just be like, "OK, good pick", without the, "wow."

 

Benintendi and Harris have certainly been getting a lot of attention lately, I'll be surprised if either of them make it to the Brewers at this point, though I'd love it if the Crew took Harris. I'd take Happ all day long, and Stephenson would be fine with me too, if he makes it to their pick.

 

I've decided to hope for Allard if it's a pitcher, and Happ if it's a hitter.

 

One other note, I heard from Charlie Hayes the other day, he sure is excited for his boy. I know the Dodgers and the Braves have been watching Ke'Bryan closely, those two teams have four of the first 41 picks. I think there's a chance young Mr Hayes goes in the first 30 picks, and i'd bet he will be picked before the end of the first wave of competitive balance picks.

[TheCrew07]

Eye Black, if the Brewers took Buehler, it certainly wouldn't be a reach, and for all we know, he may have a great MLB career ahead of him. For some reason though, he just hasn't moved me - I don't know why not, there's no reason not to like him for the Brewers, but if they take him, I'll just be like, "OK, good pick", without the, "wow.".

 

Well other than him not having a plus pitch and profiling like a #3 there's this:

 

His start to his junior season at Vanderbilt was delayed by elbow soreness, but he's pitched well since rejoining the Commodores rotation.

There's plenty not to like about him for the Brewers in the first round. He'd be fine in the 20s, but I'd rather go with greater upside at #15.

[splitterpfj]

Well, there you go, 07, I wasn't moved by him, and now I'm really not moved by him.

[Eye Black]

Splitter, I would be content with some of the other guys you mentioned (Stevenson, Harris, Happ), but they weren't available in that particular mock. I agree with you that I don't think there is any chance Harris falls to #15. Going back to the mock, a couple of other parts of the article that are worth highlighting...

 

Note on injured pitchers: There are some teams that are steering clear of the injured pitchers (Brady Aiken, Michael Matuella, Kolby Allard and Nate Kirby) altogether in the first round. Some teams seem likely to pounce on one of them, like the Dodgers, but none of the medicals are out on these players yet and meetings are just starting, so it’s too early to know landing spots with any certainty. Teams have also said they want to see Phil Bickford’s medical, despite his solid spring, because it’s widely believed that his deal two years ago with Toronto at 10th overall fell apart due to shoulder concerns. Louisville RHP Kyle Funkhouser looked like a top 5-10 pick about a month ago, before he completely fell apart and went from throwing 93-96 to 88-92 mph, which prompted some teams to say they are interested to see if his arm is healthy. Teams won’t be getting medicals on Funkhouser due to his adviser’s stance on that issue; I’ll let you guess who that adviser is.

There’s plenty of buzz on players that could sneak into the top 26 pick and about the teams targeting them at lower picks.

 

Of the high school bats, there’s CF Nick Plummer (

could sneak in back half of round one, some interest from Brewers, Yankees and D’Backs beyond pick 26) and 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes (many spots from 20-35 could be homes, Royals, Blue Jays and Braves are on him).

[splitterpfj]

Charlie posted a pic of Ke'Bryan at the Braves' pre-draft workout.

 

On Funkhouser, the velocity is down and the command is off....no, No, NO! If that's going on with a pitcher, and you can't see medicals, why bother with it in the first round? If you test drove a car, and it was sluggish, with a sound coming from under the hood, and the dealer said, "You can't take that to your mechanic before you buy it." Would you buy it? How about if it was going to cost seven figures to take it home?

[brewmann04]

They can't really afford to miss in round one going to be curious where they go.

[brewcrewdue80]

I try to resist the temptation to link every mock draft that comes up, but this Fangraphs Mock Draft (v2.0) is especially useful because it includes video links to all of the prospects listed.

 

15. Brewers – Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt

 

This would likely be where Buehler’s slide ends, with the Brewers waiting to see which player slides to them. They’ve been tied to Ian Happ, Tyler Stephenson, Andrew Benintendi and Jon Harris.

If that is how the draft actually plays out, I will be a little disappointed. If Kolby Allard, Mike Nikorak, and Garrett Whitley are all available at #15, I really hope they take one of them. I would be ecstatic if the Brewers some how ended up with both San Clemente kids, Allard and his Catcher, Lucas Herbert, with their first couple of selections.

 

 

Nice Link. Reading it makes me wonder on teams not jumping on Allard/Mutuella/Aiken earlier than expected. When the claim by the writer is the talent is so good for 2016 15 of the picks would be first rounders this year based on now.

So would a team draft an Allard/Matuella offer them a cheaper prcietag due to injury concerns and if they won't sign, just consider the picks being delayed a year a non-lost cause?

The Brewers take Aiken, say 1.5mil offer. He doesn't take it think about the top 5 pick in 2016 plus #16? For next year?

How about monetary? So you didn't spend your 1st pick's money. Spend it July 2nd overspend even. Use the cap you can't spend 2016 on internationals for 2016 on the double 1st rd choices then. That's if Aiken declined the offer.

[Raw Biz]

From my fairly limited scouting, I'm liking (in no particular order) Happ, Benintendi, Whitley, Nikorak, and Allard (even with the injury). If St. Louis ends up with Allard, I will be pissed. I really like the movement that Nikorak has, though not sure what his control is like.

 

I would be unimpressed with Funkhouser, Kaprelian or Harris. I'm also not impressed with Kyle Tucker (not sure why, just something I don't like about his swing), though I doubt he would make it to us anyway.

[splitterpfj]

Those who are not thrilled with Harris - tell me why.

[TheCrew07]

Well I hate to invoke the "J" word again but there's limited upside, he's a #3 best case. FB 91-93, 2 average to above average secondary pitches (flash plus but not plus), and so-so control.

 

When it comes to college pitchers I'm skeptical that their secondary stuff is going to improve to plus if they don't have it. After if it was that easy to have plus stuff every pitcher would have it. There's nothing wrong with MLB average stuff, but I'm not looking for #3s, I'm looking to fill out the top of the rotation.

 

Of course the so-so control scares me off in the 1st round as well since control is the #1 thing I'm looking for in pitchers, just like the ability to make contact is the #1 thing in hitters which is why I argued vehemently against Gatewood at #12 last year. If the guy isn't a 60 from the control or contact side I'm moving on, I believe a pitcher can learn to command his pitches if he has good FB control.

 

I would rather take a control guy with stuff but a so-so FB than a guy with a big FB and none of the rest. Ideally the pitcher has control, FB, and stuff in the 1st round. I'll sacrifice FB velocity for better stuff which is why I talk about setting the sites on #2s in the first round (unless we're picking in the top #5 and even then it has to be a year with that kind of pitcher available), I want impact pitching first, I'm not looking for Aces, give me a rotation where 4 of 5 pitchers are #2s and we're going to legitimately compete for a WS.

 

Later on in the draft I'm looking to latch onto 1 plus tool.... FB velocity, good stuff with projectable velocity, raw power, all around elite athleticism.... what have you.

 

I have a very narrow window of talent I'm looking for in the first round because I don't believe the Brewers can develop control in pitchers and I'm not sure anyone can teach a player how to put a bat on the ball.