2015 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation

[brewcrewdue80]

Man, They show video of Aiken and I just couldn't pass him up if his medicals showed promise. I know I've shied away from him due to the smaller UCL/TJ. And only a team with seeing his medicals that maybe the surgery also included fixing his smaller UCL would it make so much sense to take him. We'll probably never have the info on what his medicals come out until he's picked and that team's interview says something positive on the medicals. Obviously, if he drops and it's end of 1st rd or even mid 2nd round, the medicals on him must have come back as negatively. Maybe I should try and watch a little video of the mocked names and like last season give my impressions on what and whom I like/don't like.

[splitterpfj]

I still like Atlanta for guys like Aiken and Matuella. The Braves made moves to get themselves, if you will, more "cap space" for the draft - they've got early picks, and the cash to pay them with.

 

Maybe Atlanta bypasses those two particular players, but they are a team that is well-positioned to gamble on a risk/reward guy.

[Austin Tatious]

I'm so desperate for a top shelf starter that I'd be very tempted by Aiken and Matuella, in that order. I can't comment on the medical and particularly the small ulnar nerve on Aiken. That would need the medical expertise, obviously.

 

I'd be ecstatic with either of them. Over the moon. If it's money and not medical, I'd just be creative and find a way financially. Balance the financials on other picks as Splitter mentioned above. I would prioritize that. We really need the elite pitcher one way or another. We need that asset. I don't want a rotation of 2s, 3s and 4s forever. Let's get our home grown Kershaw. When he's in his 3rd year, extend him. It can be done.

 

If the medicals aren't there, as I said earlier in the thread, I just think Chris Betts really sounds like a great prospect that fills a huge void. Big kid and the reports I've read said he can stick at catcher at 6'3 with a left handed stick. Last year I liked the Schwarber kid and was shocked he went 3rd to the Cubs. Betts would be my consolation.

[paul253]

I agree. Go high upside. If Aiken is available and his medical is ok take him. If not I like Betts too. We have a huge need at catcher and even if he can't stick there we have a huge need at 1B too. Surely he can move there.

[splitterpfj]

Tweet from Kiley McDaniel...

 

Borderline unbelievable amount of scouts here for Arkansas CF Andrew Benintendi's BP. 15-20 crosschecker/director/VPs, many in top 15 picks.

[TheCrew07]

This shouldn't be surprising but I'm actually eying up my usual assortment of HS pitchers given the Brewers' draft position skewed heavily in favor of LHP since I wasn't and still am not thrilled with Medeiros pick. Kodi has a very steep mountain to climb from a control standpoint at this juncture in his career.

 

I will of course be livid if the Brewers make a high floor college selection along of the lines of a Jungmann who's a #3 best case and more of a 4/5 type.

 

I'd like HS RHP Ashe Russell, HS LHP Kolby Allard, or 4yr LHP Tyler Jay. Jay is currently a closer for the Illini in the B1G (yes I know) but he's just so easy to dream on with a FB that tops around 97 and really good secondary stuff. I'd have a hard time passing on Brady Aiken if he was there hoping he'd stay healthy enough to pitch at least 6 years for the Brewers. I'm still going back on forth on him, for me it's all about the medicals and without being able to see them I have a hard time committing, but I wouldn't be disappointed if the Brewers took a chance. I also find 4yr LHP Nathan Kirby intriguing statistically and stuff wise (hits 94 with the FB, plus slider and change), but I fear he's more of a #3 because his FB location is spotty and as I've mentioned many times I just don't trust the Brewers to make significant strides with a player of that type. I have no doubt he could move fast and be a mid rotation guy, I'm just not sure the #2 upside is there.

 

The pitcher I'm most intrigued by because of his pitchability and stuff is HS RHP Triston McKenzie but there's no way I can justify taking him at #15. I gotta believe a dude that scrawny (he's something like 6' 4" 160lbs) can add some muscle and bump up to 93-94 or better with with the FB. For some reason I just really like the kid, maybe it's the smooth athleticism he pitches with but he would be my competitive balance pick.

 

All of these guys have delivery quirks I'm not thrilled about but that's just the way it is.

[nate82]

 

4yr LHP Tyler Jay. Jay is currently a closer for the Illini in the B1G (yes I know) but he's just so easy to dream on with a FB that tops around 97 and really good secondary stuff. I'd have a hard time passing on Brady Aiken if he was there hoping he'd stay healthy enough to pitch at least 6 years for the Brewers. I'm still going back on forth on him, for me it's all about the medicals and without being able to see them I have a hard time committing, but I wouldn't be disappointed if the Brewers took a chance.

 

Yeah another person on the Tyler Jay bandwagon! He could be a cheap sign at the Brewers pick which would allow the Brewers to take Aiken with the competitive balance pick if he is still available at that time. That is the only spot I would be comfortable with the Brewers taking Aiken.

 

Though you would have to be almost 100% positive with Jay being a starter to take him that early in the draft. I imagine he will lose a bit on the fastball velocity wise if he becomes a starter 93-95 should be his average as a starter I believe. I do love his secondary pitches though as I think he may have at least 2 more plus pitches or at least 2 more above average pitches.

 

This change up is nasty kind of reminds me of Cole Hamels change up.

 

Jay's change up

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Jay-Santana-Certainly-CH-SS-K.gif

 

Hamels change up

http://usatftw.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/hamelschange.gif?w=1000

 

I am on board with drafting Jay in the first round which probably means it is not going to happen.

[jjfanec]

This shouldn't be surprising but I'm actually eying up my usual assortment of HS pitchers given the Brewers' draft position skewed heavily in favor of LHP since I wasn't and still am not thrilled with Medeiros pick. Kodi has a very steep mountain to climb from a control standpoint at this juncture in his career.

 

I will of course be livid if the Brewers make a high floor college selection along of the lines of a Jungmann who's a #3 best case and more of a 4/5 type.

 

I'd like HS RHP Ashe Russell, HS LHP Kolby Allard, or 4yr LHP Tyler Jay. Jay is currently a closer for the Illini in the B1G (yes I know) but he's just so easy to dream on with a FB that tops around 97 and really good secondary stuff. I'd have a hard time passing on Brady Aiken if he was there hoping he'd stay healthy enough to pitch at least 6 years for the Brewers. I'm still going back on forth on him, for me it's all about the medicals and without being able to see them I have a hard time committing, but I wouldn't be disappointed if the Brewers took a chance. I also find 4yr LHP Nathan Kirby intriguing statistically and stuff wise (hits 94 with the FB, plus slider and change), but I fear he's more of a #3 because his FB location is spotty and as I've mentioned many times I just don't trust the Brewers to make significant strides with a player of that type. I have no doubt he could move fast and be a mid rotation guy, I'm just not sure the #2 upside is there.

 

The pitcher I'm most intrigued by because of his pitchability and stuff is HS RHP Triston McKenzie but there's no way I can justify taking him at #15. I gotta believe a dude that scrawny (he's something like 6' 4" 160lbs) can add some muscle and bump up to 93-94 or better with with the FB. For some reason I just really like the kid, maybe it's the smooth athleticism he pitches with but he would be my competitive balance pick.

 

All of these guys have delivery quirks I'm not thrilled about but that's just the way it is.

 

I agree with not wanting a Jungmann type and the 3 guys you mentioned really are intriguing. I think you are a little harsh on Medeiros. The kid just turned 18 and his control doesnt seem as bad you make it out to be. He had terrible back to back games with control - 8 walks and 2 k's in 5 innings. In the other 28 innings he has 10 walks and 39 k's. In those two terrible starts he gave up 9 hits in those 5 innings. He has given up just 19 hits in the other 28. I think it could be chalked two bad outings but I understand he had control issues before. I guess I like his upside a lot more than you.

[TheCrew07]

I don't really equate control to walks, though I can see how that would be inferred, I'm talking about the ability to throw quality strikes. If you've read the Link Reports I've talked about the way Kodi is pitching quite a bit over there, as have manager Matt Erickson, pitching coach Gary Lucas, and pitching coordinator Rick Tomlin. I linked to Rick Tomlin's interview here, it's under the Postgame Post link near the bottom.

 

Kodi doesn't throw to spots, rather the catcher sets up behind the plate in the same spot every time and the ball just goes where it's going to go. It worked early as I marveled at how and why the hitters were swinging at so many pitches out of the zone. However with the T-Rats schedule they've already seen all the teams at least once, most twice, so that simple strategy hasn't worked as well as hitters have adjusted. Today he threw just 46 of 86 pitches for strikes (53%) and of course that total includes pitches that were out of the zone and swung at. The Brewers are hoping he learns to control his pitches better over time as he moves up, and he may well do so, but this strategy they are employing is something you really only see at high school and below. He's the first pitcher I've seen since the Brewers became affiliated with the T-Rats in the MWL pitch in this manner, and I don't mean for the Rattlers, I mean league wide, most guys are working on hitting specific spots.

 

Kodi is of course unique in that his very low arm slot creates unique movement on his pitches, and boy do they ever move, but that low arm slot also makes it harder to throw strikes consistently. He's piling up SOs in A ball but I really don't know if he can continue to have success as he moves up, by the time pitchers hit AA the hitters aren't swinging at much garbage out of the zone anymore. AA players are the best, of the best, of the best, from R ball through both levels of A ball, all of the guys who consistently chase garbage are gone by AA. Is he a MLB starting pitcher? I'll say here what I said in the LRs, "Maybe?". There are very few pitchers who had decent careers being effectively wild as MLB starting pitchers, Edwin Jackson being the most recent example everyone would know.

[DHonks]

I say give the kid time. He's lacking experience. As he learns to harness his stuff, they can focus more on command. Reminds me a bit of the talk of Derek Lowe or Randy Johnson as youngsters. Set up down the middle and hope it's a strike.

[TheCrew07]

Please don't take this wrong way, I just really have no interest in debating Medeiros and continually defending my position as I did Jungmann... it's a waste of time.

 

All I said was that I did not like the pick on draft day and I still don't like the pick now, I've laid out what I'm looking for in a 1st round pitcher many times. Kodi doesn't meet my single biggest qualification which is control, that's all. I've never said he can't or won't be an effective MLB pitcher and of course I realize it is very early in his career and he has plenty time. He does have a steep hill to climb, he's way behind the curve from a control standpoint, but he's also way ahead of the curve in terms of movement... as with most young pitchers there is good and bad.

 

I actually like Kodi on a personal level, I find him to be genuine in his interviews and he competes on the mound; where other young pitchers can sometimes whither under the pressure of a bad inning, he keeps fighting, and I really like that about him. It would be incredibly petty to root against him just because I didn't like the pick and that's not what I'm about, the Brewers desperately need an impact lefty and right now he's as close as we have.

 

Simply put, we need him.

[splitterpfj]

Patrick, for the Brewers, who would you take - Kolby Allard, Kyle Funkhouser, or James Kaprielian?

[SRB]

After our all-upside draft last season and the state of the major league roster right now, I just do not understand anyone projecting the Brewers to pick a safe, high-floor college player (e.g., Funkhouser, arguably). It's about as clear as you can get that we should be using our top picks on guys who will contribute 4+ years from now.

[colbyjack]

Todd, I take Allard of that group. But he won't be there. Funkhouser is a maybe at this point in time, and if he is you have to give that serious consideration. I'm not a big fan of Kaprielian. He has good stuff, but he's a college pitcher IMO and I see him getting hit hard at the next level. Upper-80s/low-90s FB for the most part although he can get up to 93-94 and sometimes 95, but it's straight, and he doesn't have good enough secondaries for my tastes.

 

Tyler Jay is getting legitimate top 10 overall attention right now, and things have really heated up with Benintendi. I would expect either of them there. In fact, here's the list of players I don't expect falling:

 

Brendan Rodgers, Dillon Tate, Dansby Swanson, Daz Cameron, Kolby Allard, Ian Happ, Tyler Jay, Andrew Benintendi.

 

Could be there: Carson Fulmer, Walker Buehler, Kyle Funkhouser, Mike Nikorak, Jon Harris.

 

If any of those guys are there it would be hard to pass on them. Jon Harris is really getting positive reports and is growing on me. He's one of those guys in this draft that you just have a feeling is going to make people wonder how he fell past the top 3-5 picks in a few years (and he may not fall that far). One guy I like more and more every time I get to see some video of him and read some of the reports I have access to is Phil Bickford. Great extension and arm angle, good athlete with incredible natural movement on his fastball, even when it's sitting 90-91 (and he can dial it up to 97-98).

[splitterpfj]

Thanks Patrick.

 

I wasn't sure how the industry saw Allard right now, after his back injury, it sounds like teams believe in him. I like Ian Happ, there was a time when I thought he might make it to the Brewers' pick, but it doesn't look like it now. I posted something about Benintendi in this thread a couple of days ago, until that time I hadn't realized how hot he had gotten.

 

Tyler Jay is really interesting, I agree, he has a good shot at the top ten picks, and that surprises me some. He has moved himself from, "Is he a starter or a reliever?", to, "He's just plain good."

 

Jon Harris - I'd love it, but I'll bet against it. With so many of these guys having questions around them this year, I think someone ahead of the Brewers will take him - he's just kept pitching well.

 

I was surprised to see you list Fulmer as a guy who might make it to the Brewers' pick, I thought he was safely in the top ten.

 

I still like Betts, I don't know what to think of Funkhouser right now, and having read your summary of Kaprielian, I'm fighting the urge to just roll my eyes and assume Milwaukee will take him.

[Boomer5]

If the medicals check out, Aiken has the be the pick. A top of the rotation lefty and if nothing else, he will carry a big stick as a trade chip as he will be viewed as better than his Brewer's draft status if he can throw at all down the road.

[splitterpfj]

Jim Callis says Kolby Allard to Milwaukee. He has Ian Happ and Phil Bickford going well after Milwaukee's pick, with Chris Betts missing round one.

 

Take a look at where Tyler Jay is ...

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/125729150/two-shortstops-headline-latest-mock-draft

[SRB]

Only recounting this secondhand because I don't pay for Insider, but Keith Law has us taking HS SS Kevin Newman, and also mentions HS SP Tristan Beck and HS 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes as potential targets.

 

Last month Law ranked Newman as the #2 overall draft prospect.

[nate82]

Jim Callis says Kolby Allard to Milwaukee. He has Ian Happ and Phil Bickford going well after Milwaukee's pick, with Chris Betts missing round one.

 

Take a look at where Tyler Jay is ...

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/125729150/two-shortstops-headline-latest-mock-draft

 

I would be OK with Allard and wow Jay wasn't even in consideration as a 1st round pick about a month ago and now all the way up to the 3rd pick in the draft? that is just crazy.

 

 

Only recounting this secondhand because I don't pay for Insider, but Keith Law has us taking HS SS Kevin Newman, and also mentions HS SP Tristan Beck and HS 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes as potential targets.

 

Last month Law ranked Newman as the #2 overall draft prospect.

 

Newman would be a horrible pick. I don't believe he can stick at SS and is probably a 2B with no power. I will pass on him.

[Raw Biz]

Has Allard really fallen that far because of his back injury? His stuff just seems so good, plus he's a lefty. IF he's available for the Brewers, I would be all over him.

[colbyjack]

Allard could get there, but I still see someone taking the chance with him. The back issue isn't supposed to threaten his success long-term (or even relatively short-term for that matter). He was getting legitimate pub as a top 3-5 overall pick before that occurred.

 

Todd, I only mentioned Fulmer because we've seen shorter RHPs fall before, Sonny Gray being the most obvious and recent to come to mind.

 

Just for kicks I put together a little plan if I were the Brewers scouting director and some of the players I would target in the top 10 rounds:

 

 

First pick, #15, assuming the following are gone: Rodgers, Tate, Swanson, Bregman, Cameron, Allard, Happ, Tucker, Jay, Benintendi

 

Targets: Jon Harris (probably will be gone as Todd noted), Walker Buehler, Phil Bickford

Watch for in case they fall: Funkhouser, Nikorak

Others: Chris Betts, Tyler Stephenson, Cody Ponce, Austin Smith

Take him if he’s there: Carson Fulmer

 

The balance of talent favors pitching at this spot, and considering the draft isn't as deep with high impact arms, I'd probably focus on getting one with the first picks and load up on bats later.

 

 

#40 Pick

 

Potential Options, hitters: Nick Shumpert, Eric Jenkins, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Tyler Nevin, Chris Shaw

Pitchers: Dakota Chalmers, Drew Finley, Brett Lilek, Nolan Watson, Tristan Beck

Watch for: Naylor, Mike Soroka, Demi Orimoloye (Canadians)

 

I like the bats that I have listed better than the arms, and for those looking to fill some obvious holes in the system, Blankenhorn and Nevin would do that at third base while Shaw would provide some much needed power from the left side.

 

 

#55 Pick

 

Options/favorites: Taylor Ward, Jalen Miller, Jahmai Jones, Mitchell Hansen, Josh Naylor, Bryce Denton, Travis Blankenhorn

 

Again, I like the bats better here. I mentioned Blankenhorn earlier, who I think is a big sleeper in this draft and may not be available at pick #55. Naylor has huge left-handed power and is a little Prince-esque at a similar stage of his career.

 

 

#90 Pick

 

Options: Trey Cabbage, Christin Stewart, Javier Medina, Jonas Wyatt, Daniel Reyes

Take him if he’s there: Kyle Cody

 

Cody has been pitching better as of late, but he's still a wildcard since the pieces have taken a while to come together for him. Javier Medina is a very interesting arm with advanced pitchability and his stuff has taken a big turn upward this spring. Cabbage is a left-handed slugger that plays 3B.

 

 

#121 Pick

 

Options: Wesley Rodriguez, Jackson Kowar, Alexis Omar Diaz, Max Wotell, Parker McFadden, Patrick Sandoval, Logan Allen, Grayson Long, Nolan Kingham, Luke Shilling, Mitchell Traver, Jeff Degano

 

Wesley Rodriguez keeps getting better on the mound, approaching triple digits this spring. Patrick Sandoval is a LHP with one of the better curveballs available for the draft. Mitchell Traver is a personal fave with some medical concerns as he had TJ surgery prior to his freshman year and this is his first, full healthy season with TCU as a redshirt sophomore.

 

 

5th-7th:

 

Isiah Gilliam (171), Casey Hughston (188), Breckin Williams (196), Daniel Salters (264), Jason Goldstein

Save money for: DJ Wilson (225), Matt Vierling (229), Riley Thompson (269), Kyle Ostrowski (465)

 

There's plenty to like with Gilliam, Hughston, Williams, Salters and Goldstein, although each does have their flaws. Williams is the lone pitcher of that group, a potential future closer that has enjoyed great success for Mizzou. The "save money for" would be scenarios in which the Brewers got creative with their cap space early to save some money for one of these players that could go to college if not drafted earlier than this. Salters and Goldstein are both catchers, as Goldstein in particular could have a long MLB career, even as a backup, for his defense alone.

 

 

8th-10th:

 

Connor McKay, Bobby Poyner, Cole Peragine, Sikes Orvis, Tyler Peitzmeier, Matthew Crownover

 

All college seniors, but again, each has some talents that could at the very least cause each of them to enjoy short yet productive stints in the big leagues. Poyner and Peitzmeier are lefties that could be bullpen specialists. McKay has been hampered by injuries at Kansas, but like Traver, is now fully healthy and is enjoying a big year. Crownover is a pitchability lefty that is bound to get some Jamie Moyer comps. Sikes Orvis is a big bopper that is mostly a 1B/DH type.

[splitterpfj]

A couple of things - first of all, if colbyjack says it, pay attention. Nobody's right all the time, and surprises happen in every draft, but Patrick does this for a living, for a reason.

 

On Kolby Allard, what colby said is exactly right, he had a real shot at the top five picks before he had a stress reaction in his back, and was likely to be the first high school arm taken this year. On talent, I also believe he'll go ahead of the Brewers' pick, but the rise of guys like Harris and Jay have made it more likely somebody slides to Milwaukee.

 

I really thought the Brewers would end up with a bat, because I thought the pitchers you, "know you want". would be gone ahead of them, leaving more bats at the top of the board when their turn comes up. There are plenty of bats who would be nice picks for Milwaukee, but now, with Harris and Jay pushing for the top ten, and Allard gaining some momentum again, somebody, Funkhouser, Allard, who knows....somebody may fall to the Brewers.

 

One thing, on Funkhouser - he's not doing so well of late, which is why he may slide. I have no idea if there's a health issue with him, but Dylan Covey scared me off pitchers who aren't throwing as well as they had been, leading up to the draft.

[LouisEly]

The Brewers like pitchers who have sink on their fastball to avoid HRs in Miller Park (thus I think why they drafted Jungmann and Bradley), so if he's there I think it's Nikorak.

 

1st - Nikorak, Stephenson, Allard

#40 - Hayes, Herbert, Hillman

#55 - Watson, Nevin, Rei

#90 - Wiseman, Cabbage, Soroka, Degano, Austin Allen

#124 - Byler, Marrero, Long

 

Colby, I'm curious what the scouting reports are on Miami's David Thompson. Is the thought that he isn't good enough defensively to stick at 3B? The surgery he had for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome seem to have worked as he had a huge year.

[SRB]

Wow! Latest BA mock draft now has Tyler Jay going #1 overall: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mlb-mock-draft-2015-version-3-0/ What's the highest a guy who was used as a reliever in college has ever been drafted?

 

They have us taking Funkhouser again, though Allard gets a mention in the blurb.

[narwhalattack]

I don't know what to think about Funkhouser. A month ago I would have been ecstatic about the Brewers drafting him, but now... I'm not sure. He's been on a slump lately. Is he injured? Is he just tired? Will he be the same pitcher as he was a month ago or is there a more serious issue that we may not be aware of?

 

I certainly do hope that the Brewers draft a high-ceiling guy. They really shouldn't be going with "safe" guys at this point. But I fear that a safe, low-ceiling guy may be more appealing to them. Maybe Mark A. is trying to patch up the major league team as quickly as possible (given how badly this season has gone so far) and is aiming for a guy who can get to the majors as quickly as possible instead of just building for the future. Maybe I'm just paranoid.