2015 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation

[TheCrew07]

I wish that competitive balance pick came earlier, that would be the spot to grab Aiken if he was falling, I would doubt he makes it to 20, much less 40. Depending on what teams are seeing medically who knows though, there are plenty of rumors that his camp is willing to allow teams to view his records.

 

That Astros draft is really too bad, because after losing Aiken they didn't have the bonus money left to get Jacob Nix (who ultimately filed a grievance and got a settlement from the Astros), and of course the ill will when it appeared they were just trying to pull back bonus money to low ball Aiken. I kept quiet at the time as I believed they were being sincere... if not it was way too transparent and no one wants that kind of negative publicity.

 

I tried to put myself in their shoes, I was pretty pissed about the Covey deal, drafting a talent like Aiken only to lose him the way that went down... I would have been livid, especially now that he did have surgery less than a year after they were initially skeptical about his health.

 

That was a ton of upside to lose because of 1 physical.

 

I might get the 2015 draft threads caught up tonight during the TRats game, but I make no promises!

[Raw Biz]

A Brewers' fan astutely brought up Tennessee prep slugger Trey Cabbage in a recent email, another option at third base in the 2-5 round range.

 

Anybody named Trey Cabbage (@treycabz) deserves to be drafted #1 overall.

[TheCrew07]

All 3 2015 threads (PG, BA, and Int) are now current, sorry for the delay.

[splitterpfj]

BEHOLD! My mock draft update...

 

http://www.baseballintheblood.com/?p=1185

[3and2Fastball]

I really hope Alex Bregman drops to the Brewers. I've watched him a lot and I think he'll be something special. More likely a 2B or OF in MLB than a SS but he can hit

[splitterpfj]

I was just looking through my latest mock draft. I have an early run on pitching, a cluster of position players in the area where the Brewers pick, and then another run on pitching, which resulted in just nine bats going in the first round, to 17 pitchers.

 

Am I way off on this, or is a ratio like that actually possible this time around?

[brewcrewdue80]

Via Crew's articles I think BA had a top 50 and 10 of the first 17 were pitchers I wanna say. Only to to have 4 of next 5 be hitters and even it out to 50/50 pitchers to batters. It feels like in reading there's more Pitching belief in this draft class than hitters and an overall weak class compared to last year's. I'm thinking this season the Brewers take Happ or Bickford at the moment. College guys I know, but I think their of upside safe bets vs the HS class having upside. But then again, Montgomery has splashed in the draft recently to successful prospect picks. I'm thinking the Brewers are going to hit on the draft with somebody who falls down to them since they have that 40th pick money to use and nab their guy that way. Just based on the fact that the draft reads more miss than hit, to save money with that 2nd pick may be foolish if you can take some of it and get someone who was at the top and believed to be a hit but money makes him harder to sign.

 

There's partial excitement in that they could draft Matuella or Aiken be FOR potentials if they can remain healthy after their TJs. Just don't know though on taking on that risk of avoiding the 2nd TJ before they've made their ML debut.

[nodakfan17]

How come you never see players traded for draft picks like you do in the NBA (and occasionally in the NFL)? I assume that league rules don't allow for this type of transaction.

 

I didn't think this question warranted its own thread, so apologies if it needs to be moved.

[splitterpfj]

Nodak, that's right, MLB does not allow teams to trade draft picks - they're experimenting with it, by allowing teams to trade their, "Competitive Balance Picks" right now.

[SRB]

Are there concerns about Chris Betts being able to stick at catcher that you have him listed as C/1B? I guess the upside is worth the risk either way, just wary of drafting a potential 1B prospect in the first round who isn't a total hitting prodigy like Prince was.

[splitterpfj]

Betts is definitely more advanced as a hitter than he is as a catcher, but scouts seem to think he'll stay behind the plate.

 

According to, "they", Betts will go somewhere around pick #20, what I don't know is - what do Milwaukee's scouts think of him?

 

Picking in the middle of the round makes a team something of a wildcard - does someone fall to them, do they like someone more than other teams do - like they did with Medeiros last year? With this being Montgomery's first draft here, does he bring a blueprint that he sticks to?

 

I think Betts belongs on the list of possibilities for Milwaukee, with at least five or six other players.

 

While I expect the first round to be dominated by pitchers, the Brewers' pick looks like it may align with more bats than arms. Betts, Ian Happ, Trenton Clark, Nick Plummer, Daz Cameron, Alex Bregman - depending on who's left when they pick, and who the Brewers like, any of those young men could tour Miller Park this summer.

 

Pitching is unique this year, not just in its quantity, but also when it comes to health. Not only are there the two headliners with the Tommy John issue, but Kolby Allard has had a back injury, and a couple of other projected first rounders have had the ever popular, "strained lat." Pitchers will go early, but it's possible someone surprising is there when Milwaukee picks...its been a weird year in that regard.

[brewcrewdue80]

Just over a month away from the draft and it's such a crapshoot right now. Daz Cameron almost feels like the Brewers pick the way he's falling due to Milw's penchant of picking player's sons in the past. And this one would be a former player's son. Didn't think a month ago he'd be around after the top 10 and it's especially crazy considering the top pitchers being injured he's fallen in ranks. Problem is he'd be what sounds like another Tyrone Taylor with slight more upside? One that the Brewers already drafted it seems in Harrison. Based on the perception of the draft class, you would think you could draft more on need getting equal talent potential. So it'd seem foolish to me to pick a CF/corner OF due to what's coming up to the Major League Roster.

 

Here's something to consider. The Aiken/Matuella/Allard/Kirby injury riddled group or former top 10 SPs.

 

It's a lost season, there are going to be trades made for prospects. This would be the kind of time to take on a Brady Aiken/Matuella pitching upside talent vs grabbing a healthy but not as high an upside type player. Now I've voiced my concerns about taking Aiken but at #15 where the Brewers select considering where their franchise is. How would you pass on not taking a former #1 pick talent?

 

Of course you have the Kodi Medeiros pick. One where his showcase to Milw a short time before draft day, that propelled them to select him. His performance was "Fresh" in their minds that these 4 mentioned wont have the privilege of doing. So there could be that player taken when faced with the dilemma.

 

And also we don't have Seid its not Montgomery so that showcase scenario may not matter if an Aiken/Matuella falls to them.

 

At this point, I see no way of predicting who the Brewers will pick since obviously previously higher ranked players are injured and likely to fall to them.

It will be one of those things you wonder, watch Aiken or Matuella fall all the way to the Lardinals and Magically they turn in to Cy Young pitchers whose injuries don't impact them.

Would you want to be around 3 or 4 seasons from now and be asked that question, how did you pass up a Brady Aiken/Mike Matuella and select a Chris Betts?

[Eye Black]

Found this Kiley McDaniel Fangraphs article on the D-Backs Plans for the First Overall Pick interesting. According to the article they are exploring the possibility of cutting a deal at 1.1 with some players not recently considered as likely to go in the first few picks (C Tyler Stephenson, CF Garrett Whitley, and CF Daz Cameron) which could potentially save them in the range of $4-5 million on the first pick which has a slot value of $8 million. The money would then be available to be used on signing other picks above slot value. It would be a move somewhat similar to what the Astros did when they drafted Carlos Correa and signed him for $2.4 million under slot, although I think Correa was projected at the time to still be among the top 6-8 picks. According to Kiley, Stephenson is currently projected to go more in the 8-15 range currently.

[reillymcshane]

Found this Kiley McDaniel Fangraphs article on the D-Backs Plans for the First Overall Pick interesting. According to the article they are exploring the possibility of cutting a deal at 1.1 with some players not recently considered as likely to go in the first few picks (C Tyler Stephenson, CF Garrett Whitley, and CF Daz Cameron) which could potentially save them in the range of $4-5 million on the first pick which has a slot value of $8 million. The money would then be available to be used on signing other picks above slot value. It would be a move somewhat similar to what the Astros did when they drafted Carlos Correa and signed him for $2.4 million under slot, although I think Correa was projected at the time to still be among the top 6-8 picks. According to Kiley, Stephenson is currently projected to go more in the 8-15 range currently.

Kiley McDaniel also did a mock draft - up through the 13th pick - so no Brewer speculation. But it gives you some idea of who might be gone.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-far-too-early-2015-mlb-mock-draft/

[brewcrewdue80]

Well if that mock played out, You'd have to believe the Brewers select one of the injured pitchers like Aiken or Matuella. At least be considering it. Ian Happ would be there too, who has that quick moving College bat feel to him.

 

Good read on that article, at least explains who a number of those teams are scouting and in on with their pick.

 

One might have to wonder if what the DBacks are planning with mass underslot signing if they aren't going to then attempt to sign Aiken or Matuella who's asking price may be too much for any team not picking in the top 10 and don't select them outright?

[splitterpfj]

My way too early look things - the Brewers' first pick will come from this list...

 

Chris Betts, Catcher, Wilson HS, CA

 

Ian Happ, 2B/CF, Cincinnati

 

Alonzo Jones, 2B/CF, Columbus HS, GA

 

Mike Nikorak, RHP, Stroudsburg HS (PA)

 

Nick Plummer, LF, Brother Rice HS (MI)

 

 

I posted that back in November - Jones got hurt, so cross him off, but I still think the rest of these guys are right in the range where the Brewers will pick.

 

Trenton Clark is listed as the Brewers' pick in some mock drafts I've seen, but I think he's moved up ahead of Milwaukee's pick. Daz Cameron was sliding back towards the Brewers, but now he looks like he may be back ahead of the Brewers too.

 

There are wildcards in play - skilled pitchers the Brewers wouldn't have had a shot at, but they're rehabbing injuries. Another catcher, Tyler Stephenson, may play himself as high as the Brewers' pick.

[Austin Tatious]

Splitter, I look forward to your posts. If the Brewers took one of the injured pitchers, what would the financials look like? Would we have the money to pay our other high picks? I really covet a high end starter.

 

Last year we were very smart with our money. How did we do it? Spend more at the top and less in the middle rounds? Could we do that again?

[Austin Tatious]

Also, what is the data after one TJ injury? Are you susceptible to a second?

[splitterpfj]

Austin, when it comes to getting guys signed, the most important factor is, you have to KNOW that it will take to sign the guy before the pick. I know the Brewers love Kodi Medeiros' potential, but I also think he was available for a little less money than some of the other guys they may have taken in that spot.

 

Monte Harrison had the leverage of a football scholarship to Nebraska, so he was going to be more expensive - so you see how things played out....a little more here, a little less there, but you can't do that if you don't know the math going in. To answer your question, yes, teams very often spend less on picks in rounds 6-10 for example, using that money to make sure they get those first few guys signed. You see a lot of college seniors going in those rounds now, because they have no leverage - sign, or go look for work.

 

This year, the Brewers are set up almost exactly the same as they were last year - their first pick is in the middle of round one, then they have a Competitive Balance Pick after the first round, just like last year. I don't know the draft strategy the new Scouting Director will employ, and this year's draft does not have as much top end talent as last year, but if the Brewers want to, they can do things the same way this year.

 

Milwaukee has not messed with injured guys at the top, but it's a new man at the helm this year, and like I said, there's not as much impact talent at the top this year, so this might be a time to take a chance on someone if they're available.

 

My guess is, Brady Aiken and Mike Matuella will both be picked ahead of the Brewers - they're both coming off recent Tommy John, neither will pitch this season - Matuella also has a back condition he'll have to manage. If you're looking for the talented arm to gamble on, that may be Kolby Allard. Allard is a high school kid who absolutely would have gone ahead of the Brewers this year, but he had a stress reaction in his back, and he was shut down.

 

If he makes it to the Brewers' pick, that's the guy I could see them taking a shot at, if they think he'll be healthy going forward, of course.

[zjl3]

Any chance Jon Harris slips to us?

[splitterpfj]

Here's some stuff on Harris. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/missouri-state-righty-jon-harris-shows-first-round-ability/

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/v82575583/draft-report-jon-harris-hs-pitcher

 

Harris has risen fast in the projections you see online, even a week ago I would have told you he had a 50/50 chance of being there when the Brewers pick, but now I don't think he will be. He looks like he's in the top ten picks now, with a chance to crack the top five.

 

It's a very fluid year, and very hard to predict. With this many injuries, and the lack of a clear cut top five, top ten, etc, players have more room than usual to move up and down. Dillon Tate has pitched his way from late first round to the discussion for the first pick overall, and Harris has now had a similar rise.

 

Forget consensus this year, AZ still doesn't know who they want at #1.

[WV Brew]

Mayo Mock Draft

 

Brewers take HS outfielder Garrett Whitley.

[SRB]

I have a relatively-uninformed hunch that the Brewers will go with Chris Betts.

[splitterpfj]

One thing I like to watch for, as is happening right now with Garrett Whitley, is the northern kid who comes on late, because scouts were all over the south first, before the northern states really got their seasons going. Those kids can fly under the radar, and at times they fall beyond where they should have gone for that reason.

 

My best example of a kid who went through that would be Mike Trout. Look at Trout, right there with any player in baseball now, and he was picked 25th overall in 2009. He's from New Jersey, and I honestly think scouts just hadn't seen as much of him as they had some other players, so he got by some teams. I'm not saying Whitley is Trout, but I am saying this happens sometimes.

 

In Mayo's mock, he's got Brady Aiken near the end of round one, and Mike Matuella not in the first round. On the other hand, he's got a few high schoolers moving up fast - guys who weren't being called first rounders a month ago. You can just see how fluid the draft process is, a guy has a couple of bad games on the mound, and down he goes, another guy has two good weeks, and up he climbs.

[colbyjack]

Trout's situation was a little different. He was injured the summer before his senior year and missed out on a lot of the national showcase events, including our own. Because of that you didn't get to see his timed speed, him taking BP with the best players in the nation, playing in live games against the top arms across the nation, etc., and therefore the body of work wasn't as full. I want to say we (PG) had him rated as the 6th or 8th HS player in the nation going into the draft, and obviously that was off given how good (and how quickly) he became.

 

While it's a pitcher, I remember Jack Z. pointing to Mark Rogers' relatively "fresh" arm being from the Northeast being a plus. You can craft these arguments in any way to make certain things sound like a positive. You have guys from the sun belt states that play year round and are well known commodities when the draft rolls around and you can point to their experience and exposure playing with an against the best players in the country. Then, just as easily, you can say they've pitched too much, have too many innings accumulated, etc. There's examples both ways to make an argument that both ways are the way to go, meaning, every situation is still unique and you simply have to do your homework and trust your scouts to make the right picks.

 

I've recently heard that Matuella and Aiken could both slide out of the first round (and possibly further as a result).

 

Another name I want to bring up given the number of people looking for the idea third baseman given the relative dearth of such players in our system: Travis Blankenhorn. Pennsylvania kid, good, not great measurables, and a very good, polished LH hitter. He's excelled in football and basketball as well, has a strong arm, runs well and has a strong yet still projectable frame to add more strength. I spoke with one of our own scouts internally about why he isn't ranked/considered higher than what he is as his entire resume and body of work suggests a player that should be a slam-dunk for the first round.

 

I still like the idea of Chris Betts and I don't think anyone here would (or at least should) be disappointed if his name is called for the Brewers.