2015 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation

[ewitkows]

Willy had TJ , you have to take some risk.

[splitterpfj]

Just a year ago, Jeff Hoffman, from East Carolina had moved himself into the discussion for the #1 overall pick - there's no way he would have escaped the top five. Sure enough, he needed Tommy John, and still, he was picked 9th overall by Toronto.

 

Aiken will still be a high pick, he may very well be gone before the Brewers pick, in fact, I think he will be, but I"m sure the Brewers would at least consider him if he's still available. Patrick is exactly right, Toronto had multiple early picks last year, so they took the gamble with Hoffman, a team with multiple early picks makes the most sense.

 

Ironically, Houston is the team in that position this year, they have the second and fifth picks, and also the first Competitive Balance pick, but with the bad blood that's been created there, I assume that will not happen.

 

I'll say a big-money team who can afford to be wrong more often will jump on it, perhaps Boston at 7, or the Cubs at 9.

 

Even with the surgery, I just can't believe there are 15 better prospects than Aiken in this draft....roll the dice if he's there, being wrong here is a lot cheaper than being wrong on a 4-year free agent pitcher to plug the hole later.

[brewcrewdue80]

Re: Aiken.

 

I am in the background that Aiken's stock has to be falling. There is no way/reason a team should pony the 4.5mil he was offered after him needing TJ. He's his own case, which is one that upon medical checking Aiken has a much smaller UCL than he should have. So he's not normal physically. It took less than 9 months before he incurred the injury after the concern arose. How will his UCL repair with surgery? Does he still possess the smaller than expected UCL? IF he can't be normal physically in the elbow area, and he's had 1 TJ surgery now....

 

Why draft him early? He's going to need what? 9 months past draft day to even begin throwing again? So at best you're starting him a year later June 2016. You're going to limitate what he can do. Let's say 30IP in 2016. 65-75 in 2017. 110 in 2018. So he finally crosses over 140 in 2019? How is that elbow going to hold up over 4 years? Another problem/setback and he loses another year.

 

He's not Jeff Hoffman. Lucas Giolito. Where his tendon structure is normal. The moment it was found not to be, AStros Drs brought it to attention, the reduction in offer was made, and less than 9 months later Aiken is now on TJ surgery #1. I see no reason to take on the risk when the concern from deformity to put it, was questioned and raised with what an end result could be and it took less than 9months for that to have occured. I don't think a smart GM would pay Aiken 1 million in the draft, unless they surgically enhance that concern to no longer be one down the road. Aiken shouldn't be a 1st round selection due to sign risks/money he can command at that point and he should fall in to the beginning of the 3rd round in my opinion if a GM was making a smart selection due to money slots.

 

My opinion though, and it's in belief his tendon isn't being repaired to the normal size it should be.

[MrTPlush]

The whole draft is a crapshoot. Aiken will go top 10 and every GM in baseball would draft him 8-10 area despite the elbow. Sure maybe he just has a career filled with injuries...or you get a Cy Young candidate for years.

 

Beauty of the MLB draft.

[TheCrew07]

Drafting college kids is tough enough, physically and mentally immature HS kids is a totally different matter, which is why I've had issues with the way MLB conducts the draft. I mean seriously, how can you draft a player before you can give them a physical? The system is just dumb, and always have been. I'm not a huge fan of the NFL combine but at least they have a much better idea of the player's health before they draft him.

 

That doesn't mean to suggest that I'm against drafting HS kids, in fact where the Brewers have been drafting in the draft HS players are the highest ceiling players available in those slots, so for the most part I've been advocating drafting HS kids for years.

 

Would I draft Aiken? I'm not sure, I was hesitant to pull the trigger on Hoffman last year. With 2 first round picks I'd say yes without hesitation, but without 2 I just don't feel good about it. I have incredibly high standards in terms of pitchers (velocity, control, and stuff) when it comes to a 1st round pick, much less the medical side. Can I see the medical information ahead of time? That would be the biggest factor for me personally, I'd want independent 2nd and 3rd opinions on the surgery even with the high success rate percentage wise.

 

Someone brought up Peralta having TJ, well that's not apples to apples, he had TJ surgery after he was signed, not before being brought into the organization. In fact I don't remember an amateur player who had surgery prior to the Brewers acquiring them either through the draft or signed as an international free agent.

 

I loved Aiken going into last year's draft and would have drafted him in a heartbeat, but I highly doubt I'd draft him this year. There's just too much grey area in what's been reported for me, maybe the teams can get detailed medical analysis now, I'm not sure... but without it I just can't see pulling the trigger.

[Jenkins5]

I think juice may be worth the squeeze with Aiken depending on how draft board is falling. If there is a high ceiling guy who is good to go know that Montgomery likes, then no. But if the board isn't falling well and it's between Aiken or some Jungmann high floor- low ceiling guy then Aiken all the way.

 

Side note, pet pev of mine.... GM has little to do with draft at all. It was Seids show now it's Montgomery. Melvin does not spend time scouting prospects, his plate is a little full looking for MLB talent. He is in room, and probably gets reports on who they like but isn't making any decisions. He trust his guys.

[splitterpfj]

Crew07, I'm with you, the MLB draft process is a mess - period.

 

Why bother having 40 rounds, if you know teams are going to sign around 25 of those picks in the first place?

 

Why not have physicals done prior to the draft?

 

Why not make kids declare for the draft, the same way other sports do - pick your year, and come out.

 

Kids being drafted multiple times shows you there is way to much room in the system - the next time you see a linebacker enroll at USC after being drafted by the Patriots, please let me know.

[Jenkins5]

For this years draft it really does seem like a crap shot. As of right now people are all over the board. I see some guys in the top 10 on this site then rated in the 30s on this one. I'm having a hard time picking out my favorites. Betts, Jones, Clark, Randolph, Baker, Orimoloye are all guys who interest me the most at 15 or 40 but there really aren't any guys I'm crushing on... Be heart broken not to get like I was Homer Bailey, Trout, Baez, etc

[Mass Haas]

In fact I don't remember an amateur player who had surgery prior to the Brewers acquiring them either through the draft or signed as an international free agent.

 

Undrafted free agent signee LHP Stephen Peterson had TJ while at URI.

 

I feel like we're missing one or two others, but maybe not...

[reillymcshane]

Duke pitcher Michael Matuella will have TJ surgery. Many people predicted he'd be a top 10 (even top 5) pick this year.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/dukes-matuella-done-season/

[splitterpfj]

I just did a mock draft....pitching rules. I'm sure I'll modify this a time or two before the draft, but for now I sent some hurt pitchers to some big money teams.

 

http://www.baseballintheblood.com/?p=1182

[brewcrewdue80]

Splitter, why would Matuella who was basically ranked above Aiken fall further with his TJ than Aiken does?

[splitterpfj]

Hi BCD -

 

Those two pitchers, to me, are the wildcards of this draft. One of them was the first pick last year, the other was in the running for the first pick this year, and they're both coming off the same injury, on what should be the same time frame to return.

 

I have no idea where either one of them will actually go, but I believe they will both be picked based on potential rather than the injury, so I just plugged them into two money spots, with Boston and New York.

 

If both were healthy, and in the same draft, I don't know which guy would be picked first, I think that's a great question. Unless Houston wants to gamble with Matuella, which I doubt, I don't see the obvious team with multiple high picks to roll the dice here.

 

I could see either, or both, falling further than I guessed here, and sure, Matuella could go ahead of Aiken.

 

Atlanta might be interesting here, they have the 14th pick, the 28th pick, for Ervin Santana, and now the 41st pick, acquired from San Diego.

[igor67]

It's supposed to be a down talent year, so I wonder what sorts of draft strategies one might do with multiple picks. I'm not sure in that environment if you are better off spreading the risk around hoping to get something or see if you can't go for broke on 1 high end guy/ signability and really going cheap with the other 2.

[CheezWizHed]

Listening to the opening day game (blah!) and Bill repeated (John Kruk?) a comment about how early TJs reduce the longevity of a pitcher. Any thoughts here on that?

[narwhalattack]

It would be kinda cool if the Brewers somehow managed to draft Funkhouser- partly because of this song:

 

[colbyjack]

colbyjack , where is Texas HS OF Troy "T.J." Alexander projected?

 

Perfect Game profile

 

This Q&A with him indicates Brewers are among those who have shown the most interest.

 

Sorry I missed this before. TJ Alexander is probably a 1B prospect, as if you took the time to visit the link Mass provided above his arm strength doesn't stand out and neither does his speed. His size does, as does his left-handed bat, as he get incredible extension and offers intriguing power potential. I haven't seen him in almost two years, so I can't speak to how much he's progressed. He could have some Denson-type upside, as I know how hopeful/excited a lot of fans here continue to be about his future given his age/tools/development.

[DHonks]

Colby, I, seeing that OBP is a skill our guys aren't learning. Are there any Carlos Quentin or Rickie Weeks-type OBP monsters we could target?

[Austin Tatious]

What do you guys think about Chris Betts to the Brewers? He seems like a positional need and the type of guy we might like. There was a catcher prospect last year that we just missed that seemed really intriguing. Scouting reports:

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=321924

 

Dustin DeMuth is fine and who knows Tucker Neuhaus may put it together but we need some 3b prospects too, badly. Catcher and 3b seem like the biggest emergencies along with high end starters. 2b, 1b, and everything else etc next

 

Overall, I forgot, don't we have some extra compensatory picks? What other picks do we have in the top 75? I think we are starting to reload nicely but need to accelerate now.

[splitterpfj]

Austin, I like Chris Betts, he's one of several players who may fit where the Brewers pick, and I agree, adding a good catcher to the system is never a bad idea.

 

The catcher you're thinking of from last year is Max Pentecost. There were rumors that Milwaukee might have interest in him, but Toronto picked him a few spots ahead of the Brewers.

 

In the first 100 picks, the Brewers picks are...15, 40, 55 and 90, so yes, they should be able to add some good talent to the system.

 

The Brewers got much more aggressive, abandoning, "safe picks", instead taking players with higher upside, but less polish in the last two drafts, which certainly added some fun potential to the mix. With a new scouting director at the helm this year, we'll all learn something when Milwaukee's picks come up.

 

I think there will be more pitchers than hitters picked ahead of the Brewers this year, and with Brady Aiken and Mike Matuella both being fresh off, "Tommy John", some unexpected things could happen. If you want some arms to watch for the Brewers, check out Phil Bickford, Mike Nikorak, Kyle Cody, maybe Carson Fulmer. For bats, I do like Betts, also Ian Happ, Nick Plummer, or Trenton Clark. If you want a wildcard, watch Alonzo Jones.

[colbyjack]

DHonks, Betts, as noted by Austin & Todd, has a very keen eye at the plate. Ian Happ, although I'm not sure he gets to the Brewers' pick, is another extremely polished hitter that takes a ton of pitches. Todd also mentioned Trenton Clark and Nick Plummer, a pair of high school outfielders with very different skill-sets/tools that also display an advanced knowledge of the strike zone. Like Happ, Clark likely doesn't get to the Brewers' pick, but 15th is right around where Betts should go. I'm not as high on Plummer as others, as some put him in the 10-20 range but I see him as more of a late first to second round pick.

 

I don't think Nikorak gets to the Brewers pick as he's been dealing early in his season (up to 97) and could be taken ahead of Kolby Allard, who was previously believed to be the top prep pitcher before a back injury shut him down (although he may still pitch before the draft).

 

Daz Cameron, who was once believed a favorite to go first overall in this year's draft, could very well be available when the Brewers pick. If you like catchers, Taylor Ward of Fresno State and Georgia prepster Tyler Stephenson are both gaining momentum. Cornelius Randolph and Ke'Bryan Hayes both could be options at third base if you're anxious to fill that need, but 15 is a little rich for both of them (but not inconceivable since they both could go between the Brewers first two picks). A Brewers' fan astutely brought up Tennessee prep slugger Trey Cabbage in a recent email, another option at third base in the 2-5 round range.

 

Kyle Cody isn't really a first round option anymore. Bad command and was recently bumped out of Kentucky's weekend starting rotation. Jonathan Harris of Missouri State has really moved up this spring to take his place. Cody Ponce is another pitcher that isn't frequently mentioned but is a legit power arm.

[nate82]

What about Tyler Jay from the University of Illinois at the 15th pick?

 

I think he could become an effective starter or an elite bullpen arm.

 

Luke Lowery and Kevin Newman are two players who come to mind with exceptional OBP skills. With Newman I don't think he can stick at SS which means he has very little value unless he is able to play 2B which I think he could do. He just doesn't have the arm to stick at SS in my opinion. Newman also doesn't have any power at all so you will be stuck with a low OPS 2B which in my opinion would be fine as he does draw a lot of walks. He grades up there close to JJ Hardy in terms of instincts at SS so he could stick at SS but I have severe doubts he will stick at SS. Lowery has above average power and I believe he will be a 1B in the majors. The best comp I can think of for Lowery would be James Loney.

[Austin Tatious]

Thank you, Colby and splitter. Great information. Four top picks will be fun to watch, similar to last year. If we do well with them and hit on a couple of internationals, we could have a really fun farm system, with sadly some high draft picks coming to fortify the guys we have now.

 

I like the high ceiling approach like we did last year. Honestly, you will miss on a bunch anyway, just statistically. Baseball picks by definition require a lot of misses. So you will have the Mark Rogers, Dave Krynzel, JM Gold, Mike Jones types. Personally, I think a guy like Monte Harrson can be greater than or equal to a Lorenzo Cain.

[colbyjack]

I like Tyler Jay, but IMO he's only an option at 15 if you believe he's a starter, much like Nick Howard from Virginia was last year. I do believe Jay has the requisite pitches to be a good starter, and he has a relatively low mileage arm if you're into that kind of thing.

 

Newman is getting a lot of buzz this year and could be taken within the top 5 overall picks. I agree with your assessment Nate about his power, although I've read from others that his swing is currently geared the way it is for the college game, to put the ball in play, etc., and that more power could come with adjustments. I'm not sure if I buy that. However, his speed and defense are two of the big reasons he is being discussed in that range, as no team is going to take a projected second baseman that high, unless he's Chase Utley.

[splitterpfj]

Patrick, I thought about mentioning Cameron as a possibility for the Brewers, but I'm still stuck on all of the projections that had him in the top 5-10 picks. Do you have any idea why he's slid a bit?