2015 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation

[Eye Black]

While past performance is not indicative of what he'll do in the future here are Montgomery's 1st round picks:

 

[pre]Year Rnd DT OvPck RdPck Name Pos WAR G AB HR BA OPS G W L ERA WHIP SV Type Drafted Out of

2014 1 16 16 Touki Toussaint(minors) RHP HS Coral Springs Christian Academy (Coral Springs FL)

2013 1 15 15 Braden Shipley(minors) RHP 4Yr University of Nevada-Reno (Reno NV)

2013 1 36 36 Aaron Blair(minors) RHP 4Yr Marshall University (Huntington WV)

2012 1 26 26 Stryker Trahan(minors) C HS Acadiana HS (Lafayette LA)

2011 1 3 3 Trevor Bauer(minors) RHP 0.8 34 7 0 .000 .000 34 7 12 4.44 1.44 0 4Yr University of California Los Angeles (Los Angeles CA)

2011 1s 7 7 *Archie Bradley(minors) RHP HS Broken Arrow HS (Broken Arrow OK)

2011 1s 43 43 *Andrew Chafin(minors) LHP 0.3 3 2 0 .500 1.000 3 0 1 3.86 1.50 0 4Yr Kent State University (Kent OH)[/pre]

 

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 2/7/2015.

 

Looks to me like he's a pretty straightforward BPA guy with an emphasis on pitching, Bradley is the pitcher I like most of his 1st round draft picks and yes I'm well aware of his velocity loss and arm slot change last season. I still like him to be a #2 long term.

While it may be coincidence, it's interesting that he has used six of those seven 1st round selections on pitching. Overall, I like what Montgomery has done with his drafts for the Diamondbacks. Some other notable players he has drafted outside of the 1st round include: RHP Evan Marshall (4th Rd in 2011), RHP Jake Barrett (3rd Rd in 2012), 3B Jake Lamb (6th Rd in 2012), SS Andrew Velazquez (7th Rd in 2012), and Justin Williams (2nd Rd in 2013). It's too early to evaluate the 2014 draft picks, but it appears Montgomery's final draft with the D-Backs was high-risk, high-reward with his first five selections all being high school players. Touki Toussaint has an incredible curveball to pair with his mid-90's fastball and his ceiling is very high, but I don't love the fact he cost the Diamondbacks $360,000 over slot value to sign. Still, I like the idea of taking a chance on high upside players similar to Toussaint.

[Eye Black]

Some great content from Baseball America following week one of the college season...

 

Weekend Roundup: Kentucky’s Cody, Barrett Show Potential

 

Draft Podcast

 

College Draft Prospects Stat Roundup: Week 1

 

Includes some potential 1st round college position players with notable performances...

 

[pre]Player College Team AB R H RBI SO BB SB XBH

DJ Stewart Florida State 9 5 5 1 1 6 2 2B

Ian Happ Cincinnati 16 4 7 4 2 2 0 2 2B; 2 HR

Dansby Swanson Vanderbilt 14 3 6 2 2 2 1 2 2B; 3B

Richie Martin Florida 10 4 3 2 0 2 1 HR

Alex Bregman Louisiana State 12 1 2 1 1 0 1[/pre]

[brewcrewdue80]

As a poster in the Roenicke Hot Seat thread posted:

True. But especially with the extra wild card I like our current route better than the old Marlins way of doing things.

 

Most important thing is developing your own pitching as a small market club and somehow we've managed to compete without that due to how many position players we hit on at the same time (who were all cheap at the time). For all the genius that was Moneyball, if he didn't happen to have 3 Cy Young level pitchers come up at the same time at pre-arbitration or free agent pay, none of that would've been possible. If Peralta, Nelson and one other young guy all become good at the same time while they're cost controlled we can keep this going for a while longer. If they all flop, we're looking at a really rough stretch a few years from now.

 

 

And then look at Montgomery's 1st rd selections above, he seems the perfect fit to make that SP focus happen. I just think of the immediate such and such team has a chance in the playoffs because of: in Miami its Jose Fernandez. In Chicago its Chris Sale. Obviously Kershaw with the Dodgers. Meanwhile, that is why the Brewers are looked/predicted at under .500 as a team. They don't have the Ace. Think about the Pirates. Gerrit Cole heads their rotation as a 90win potential. Obviously St Louis with Adam Wainwright.

I hope Medeiros becomes somebody along with who ever is drafted in 2015 with the Brewers 1st pick.

[brewcrewdue80]

Okay just a little Pick Speculation. BA came out with the Preseason High School All-Americans. Listed 14 High School players. Again looking at Montgomery's 1st rd Pitcher Heavy choices previously Going to highlight one of them. The BA link:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2015-preseason-high-school-americans/

 

Probably 7 of these kids will be selected before Milw picks, maybe even 10 of them so I'm focusing again on a Pitcher and one that kinda mocks at or below Milw's pick currently. Read up the BA link on Beau Burrows. 6'2" 195lbs currently. Here's a youtube prospect video on him:

 

 

I feel like I'm looking at mostly Fastballs and a Cutter FB? Both look fairly good to great with nobody on base. I feel he has some effort in his arm motion to the plate the elbow torque a little more than I like. But he does keep many pitches low which is a good thing in the future progression to already be there. Maybe seen 1 curveball attempt was high not very good. If he's throwing any changeups part of those lower pitches I didn't catch them if so, they would be spectacular.

Edit wanted to add: When batter gets on base. Don't like his movement to the plate, rushed and he loses a lot in his pitch quality. That would have to be worked on for sure.

 

The Cutters are great. FB is a little straight to my eye. He looks like a kid that could progress nicely, but definitely needs progress on an offspeed pitch or his FB isn't exciting for how straight it is. I liked Touissaint, Holmes, and Medeiros more if going off this video so I'm not sold Milw should pick him. Definitely not like my excitement for Aiken/Kolek/ and Ortiz last draft.

[fondybrewfan]

Am I correct that the June draft is now actually in July or did I imagine that? I thought I heard they moved it back to allow the college world series to conclude before the draft.

[nate82]

My top 5:

 

OF Willie Abreu (University of Miami) (I hope he drops to the Brewers)

C Wyatt Cross (HS)

1B Zack Collins (University of Miami)

LHP Hunter Bowling (HS)

RHP Nolan Kigham (HS)

 

If somehow Abreu slips through and falls to the Brewers I do not see how you could pass him up. A left handed hitting power OF who can play either corner OF now that is something you can't pass up and should never pass up. Hopefully he falls to the Brewers but I doubt he will.

[Eye Black]

My top 5:

 

OF Willie Abreu (University of Miami) (I hope he drops to the Brewers)

C Wyatt Cross (HS)

1B Zack Collins (University of Miami)

LHP Hunter Bowling (HS)

RHP Nolan Kigham (HS)

 

If somehow Abreu slips through and falls to the Brewers I do not see how you could pass him up. A left handed hitting power OF who can play either corner OF now that is something you can't pass up and should never pass up. Hopefully he falls to the Brewers but I doubt he will.

Aren't those Miami guys both sophomores? Unless I am missing something, I don't think either is draft eligible until 2016.

[ewitkows]

I wonder where Aiken will got this year. He won't fall to us but it will be interesting to see who takes him.

[brewcrewdue80]

That's interesting to wonder on. You would think Houston isn't traveling that road again. I believe it was 4.5mil on the offer for compensation(off the top of my head) So based on last years allotments and who has them. You're looking at #1-4 as having that kind of money to spend on him. Houston has #2 and #5 So immediately the next lowest to afford him is the team spurned by. 1 is Arizona. 3 is Colorado. 4 is Texas. 6 is Minnesota and 7 is Boston Red Sox. Now, Colorado here makes a lot of sense as they have 3, 27, and the 38th pick. Only for Colorado they've picked SP with their 1st pick the last 2 seasons. Would they go a 3rd year in a row on the risky signing?

 

Texas at 4 could offer him that kind of money. And considering their search for young pitching, I'd think it would make sense they draft him. But, lets say the money risk is too much for them to let slip away with their other picks. Come to Minnesota, Wouldn't he make sense there? They signed Santana, Hughes, and Nolasco, drafted Gordon in '14. I'd say the timeline makes perfect sense for an Aiken choice. But, by signing Santana, Twins have #4, then #73+80 picks of slot money. It'd be do or die in the draft for them. We get to the Red Sox. He's signing for less money now that the Astros offer. But, the prestige, franchise to play for and the big market. Red Sox getting Aiken may be cheaper to sign now, but one can argue down the line, he can more than make that up in asking price within team control over the Rockies and Twins and likely even Texas. Starting off with a Big Market team could be a plus for him and the Red Sox who have all this Offensive Prospect Kudos going, can use the potential arm of Aiken's, not costing them 15+mil per year for the next half decade.

 

I'd guess that would be as long as he sits. Think about the sell off to fans. We went and got Moncada, and we have been fortunate enough to go sign a former 1st choice pick Aiken. The future is very bright in Sox Land.

[nate82]

My top 5:

 

OF Willie Abreu (University of Miami) (I hope he drops to the Brewers)

C Wyatt Cross (HS)

1B Zack Collins (University of Miami)

LHP Hunter Bowling (HS)

RHP Nolan Kigham (HS)

 

If somehow Abreu slips through and falls to the Brewers I do not see how you could pass him up. A left handed hitting power OF who can play either corner OF now that is something you can't pass up and should never pass up. Hopefully he falls to the Brewers but I doubt he will.

Aren't those Miami guys both sophomores? Unless I am missing something, I don't think either is draft eligible until 2016.

 

hmmm could have sworn they were both Juniors.

[colbyjack]

Abreu and Collins are both sophomores and aren't eligible until 2016.

 

As for Aiken, keep in mind the Astros have to get his permission to draft him again, and it's safe to say that Aiken will say no based on how the Astros handled that. In addition, Aiken's agent, Casey Close, represents something like 6 of the top 10 guys, of which I'm sure they'll be telling the Astros, who have 2 picks in the top 10, not to bother with any of them. That definitely left a sour taste in a lot of people's mouths, and that's putting it lightly.

[Eye Black]

A good reminder that prior to spring is too early to pay much attention to mock drafts, Dillon Tate who some weren't projecting in the first round a month ago is now in the conversation for 1-1 according to Minor League Ball's article Scouting the Draft. The successful switch from reliever to starter has helped Tate garner lots of attention from scouts this spring.

[Eye Black]

In addition, Aiken's agent, Casey Close, represents something like 6 of the top 10 guys, of which I'm sure they'll be telling the Astros, who have 2 picks in the top 10, not to bother with any of them.

Colbyjack, this fascinates me, do you happen to know which top draft prospects are represented by Close? I look forward to following this possible storyline leading up to the draft.

[colbyjack]

I don't, sorry. I did when it was first told to me a few weeks ago, but I'm sure this story will re-surface this spring. If I get the names again I'll try to remember to share them here.

 

Tate is legit. He was already highly ranked coming into the season, but yes, his transition to starter has really elevated his draft stock. Super athletic, easy arm + easy velo and 3 pretty good pitches highlighted by his mid-90s fastball that has touched as high as 98 this spring. We have several notes on Tate in our weekend recap features.

 

Another name to keep an eye on is Mitchell Traver. Big kid, like 6-7, 230 or so. Missed almost all of his first two years in college due to TJ surgery during his freshman year at TCU. He's had back-to-back dominant outings and is expected to be moved up to Friday's start this week against USC. Pitches downhill with a 93-94 fastball that touches higher to go along with a hard-biting breaking ball and an improving changeup. And his command has been solid (I think he's only allowed 1-2 walks in 16-18 innings so far this spring). If you're able to look past the injury past he has the ingredients as a legit top 5-10 overall pick, and obviously how he fares the rest of the way will be critical in how teams view him. Big-time upside as a big, power arm.

 

Oh yeah, and he's a Packers fan. I believe he was born in Wisconsin before moving to the Houston area.

[MrTPlush]

Abreu and Collins are both sophomores and aren't eligible until 2016.

 

As for Aiken, keep in mind the Astros have to get his permission to draft him again, and it's safe to say that Aiken will say no based on how the Astros handled that. In addition, Aiken's agent, Casey Close, represents something like 6 of the top 10 guys, of which I'm sure they'll be telling the Astros, who have 2 picks in the top 10, not to bother with any of them. That definitely left a sour taste in a lot of people's mouths, and that's putting it lightly.

 

There is absolutely a 0% Casey Close tells the Astros not to draft any of his players with the #2 or #5 pick...other than Aiken of course.

[MrTPlush]

Maybe the Brewers go after Wisconsin product Kyle Cody. Throws 98mph and could probably increase it to 100mph in the bullpen. Nasty slider, good command, ground ball type pitcher and workhorse frame makes him a power reliever arm at worst. Though I wouldn't be surprised if he goes Top 10 with his size and stuff.

[colbyjack]

If you haven't heard Brady Aiken threw only 14 pitches today for IMG Academy. We had one of our scouts at his game who provides notes and video of his performance:

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=11017

[nate82]

If you haven't heard Brady Aiken threw only 14 pitches today for IMG Academy. We had one of our scouts at his game who provides notes and video of his performance:

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=11017

 

From what I read on Baseball America it sounds like he is going to need TJ surgery or it could just be a dead arm issue.

[SRB]

Will be interesting to see if he falls to Milwaukee if he gets TJ (and if Milwaukee will be aggressive enough to pick him)

[colbyjack]

One of our scouts (Jheremy Brown) was at Dillon Tate's start yesterday and provides his report + video here:

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=11022

 

And you can access all of the videos of college players our scouts have taken so far this spring, a list that will be continually updated:

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=11016

[colbyjack]

On Aiken, if he does have TJ, I don't see the Brewers getting involved with that kind of player. That said, they showed a more aggressive approach with their picks last year, but I see a team with multiple early picks (earlier than the Brewers first 2 picks) being more likely to take the risk on an injured pitcher like the Blue Jays did last year with Jeff Hoffman.

[Mass Haas]

colbyjack , where is Texas HS OF Troy "T.J." Alexander projected?

 

Perfect Game profile

 

This Q&A with him indicates Brewers are among those who have shown the most interest.

[nate82]

I believe we can officially take Aiken off of the list with his TJ surgery.

[ewitkows]

Why? A chance to get #1 overall pick who is only 19. He wouldn't have pitched up after he signed anyways.

[nate82]

Why? A chance to get #1 overall pick who is only 19. He wouldn't have pitched up after he signed anyways.

 

Because it would be an extremely risky pick especially with one TJ already if he has a 2nd then what?