2015 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation

[SRB]

To splitter's point, Gatewood was mentioned quite a bit in last year's thread on the same topic, especially when we thought the Brewers would have a pick among the top 5 overall. Overall, a fun thread to go back and read:

 

viewtopic.php?f=69&t=30192

 

Interesting to go back and see that Medeiros was ranked as high as #14 on somebody's list (MinorLeagueBall) back in July 2013, because I thought he was more of an unknown when the Brewers "reached" for him. And of course we got him and the player ranked #1 by Scout.com in July 2013 (Gatewood), and another top 20-30 player to boot

[Mass Haas]

Molnar said he’s been contacted by scouts from the Washington Nationals, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, Dodgers, Padres and Angels, and would be interested in signing a major league contract if selected high enough in the June First-Year Player Draft.

 

Full story -- Kyle Molnar officially signs with UCLA

[brewcrewdue80]

Boom Haas Great story find. Obviously a potential to look for now as a Brewer pick either as a 1st rd or a above slot top 7 rounds pick.

 

Im reading that he's a 93MPH FB on a 6'3" frame so more projection left on the table. A Curve at 72-78 Change at 79-83 Slider at 78

 

Taken from PG:

Kyle Molnar is a 2015 RHP/OF with a 6-3 205 lb. frame from Aliso Viejo, CA who attends Aliso Niguel HS. Very nice athletic build, filling in and physically maturing nicely. Easy balanced leg raise delivery, good pace and low effort, throws under control and repeats his mechanics very well, long loose whippy arm action. Selected for the Perfect Game All-American Classic. Steady low 90's fastball, topped out at 93 mph, outstanding fastball command, owned the outside corner to both side hitters. Advanced change up with big fading action. Shows feel for his curveball with good depth and command. Pitched like a big leaguer this outing, very mature use of pitches and location. Impressive performance. Good student, verbal commitment to UCLA.

 

 

Drool. FB command+advanced change up?

[pogokat]

http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/2014/11/19/3423076_columbus-al-jones-and-khayla-lloyd.html?sp=/99/210/&rh=1

 

Al Jones signs with Vandy---has met with Brewers in recent weeks

[brewcrewdue80]

http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/2014/11/19/3423076_columbus-al-jones-and-khayla-lloyd.html?sp=/99/210/&rh=1

 

Al Jones signs with Vandy---has met with Brewers in recent weeks

 

How do you know he's met with Brewers in recent weeks? Not mentioned in the article.

[pogokat]

As we have followed some prospects in the past because of close contact through forum members, we can do the same with Al. I won't post much about it but I work at Columbus high school, and as such have contact with Al. I will fill you guys in when I here things that I feel like I can share.

[colbyjack]

I'm not trying to take anything away from these reports, but scouts meet with all of the top players during the winter offseason. If the Brewers weren't visiting with the likes of Kyle Molnar and Alonzo Jones they would have some serious problems with their scouting staff. I know some area scouts have a quota of home visits they have to make during the winter months, since there isn't much else to do, as it gives the scouts an excellent opportunity to get a feel for the player off of the baseball field (and their families).

[sheetskout]

What's the probably that the Brewers go Catcher in the first round at this point as Coulter has moved off the position and Luc is really only signed through 2017? Although I would prefer us to continually grab pitching I would think this has to be an area of concern in the system right now.

[paul253]

The Brewers have really upgraded SS and 3B over the last two years from really nothing to a few legit prospects. Catching I think is now the biggest black hole in the system. I don't like taking outfielders in the first round unless they are really ultra high ceiling players because outfield is kind of like relief pitchers in that almost anyone can be converted to a corner outfielder.

If a catcher is available who is worthy of a first round pick I'd love to see the Brewers snatch him up. Otherwise I like how they are loading up on HS pitching.

[colbyjack]

Next year's draft isn't a very good one for catching, as there are only 3 ranked among our top 100 prospects for next year, and two of them (Wyatt Cross at 79 and Garrett Wolforth at 98) are closer to 100 than where the Brewers pick. Chris Betts, who Todd mentioned earlier, may be a good overall fit for the Brewers. He's not as impressive defensively as Cross, who is one of the best prep catchers defensively to ever come out of the draft, and Wolforth, who has a big-time arm, but he's good enough to stick there for the foreseeable future. His calling card is his left-handed bat with exciting power potential and overall offensive upside.

 

That said, Cross would be an interesting pick for either their comp pick or their second rounder. While he's not as polished at the plate as Betts, his size and swing from the left hand side of the plate give him intriguing upside for the position, and as alluded to, his defense is not going to slow his development.

 

High school catchers of course are one of, if not the most risky draft demographic, in the first round. Although I wouldn't narrow my pick to any one position, I do agree that catcher is a system-wide need (except for at the very top of course).

[narwhalattack]

So far some HS pitchers that intrigue me are Justin Hooper, Beau Burrows, Ashe Russell, and Mike Nikorak.

Not so sure about any of the position players yet, but Demi Orimoloye is interesting. Considering that Ray Montgomery seems to like toolsy guys when it comes to evaluating position players, I'm guessing that Orimoloye will be on his radar as the draft approaches.

[pogokat]

I'm not trying to take anything away from these reports, but scouts meet with all of the top players during the winter offseason. If the Brewers weren't visiting with the likes of Kyle Molnar and Alonzo Jones they would have some serious problems with their scouting staff. I know some area scouts have a quota of home visits they have to make during the winter months, since there isn't much else to do, as it gives the scouts an excellent opportunity to get a feel for the player off of the baseball field (and their families).

 

this is, of course completely true...al told me about talking to the devil cubs today...the process is so interesting first hand.

[brewcrewdue80]

Okay approaching a month's time since last post. So with that said and since there's a scouting report/video via Fangraphs.

 

Here's mymlbdraft.com's current projected pick for Milw: 6'7" Prep/HS Lefty Justin Hooper from Fangraphs:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/67-prep-lefty-hooper-flashes-kolek-like-potential/

 

 

If you read the link's wording says Hooper flashes Kolek-like-potential. I'm not sold based off this video. Kolek to me looked like he had it w/o pushing to have it like Hooper does. And the control in the motion isn't there. Don't like reading the report that he's just a FB/Curveball with a poor feel for a Changeup at the moment. Nothing Wowed me. Maybe a curveball for the final pitch looked good but still the overall look of that outing didn't leave me with a great feeling of a surefire prospect, but one rather of lots of growing pains and time to be put in. If his FB touches 94-96 but has no higher ceiling projecting, with his delivery, I don't like the risk involved of him growing up to reach Majors w/o injury and maintaining a 94+FB.

I feel like in Hooper's case it's the 6'7" LH frame that increases his draft stock to be this high currently. If he were 6'3" or shorter RH probably wouldn't even crack the first round mock.

 

Amateur eye again of course. My SP picks last draft were Aiken,Kolek and Ortiz via video(what I'd seen) and before reaching #1/2 rankings by Aiken/Kolek. just for reference. I believe I did vote against Finnegan who made the Royals Playoff team.

 

Care to chime in on the video/link?

[brewcrewdue80]

Well, no-ones posted anything in here for 2 months now. New Prospect Lists have been put out including MLB's for 2015. They need to complete the individual team list, but do have a draft 50 list. Here's the link for right now to get to it:

http://www.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2015/#list=draft

 

Can at least read up on some prospects and see a little video too.

15: Trenton Clark HS OF

16: Ian Happ Cincy College OF

17: Phil Bickford CC of S.Nevada Col RHSP

18: Mike Nikorak HS RHSP

 

Are the around names to where Milw picks. Can use the list as you want. Last season MLB had Gatewood 22, Harrison 23, and Medeiros 29th. Will have to look up the money and picks involved to see what kind of draft strategy the team could make.

[narwhalattack]

According to this mock draft: http://www.mymlbdraft.com/2015-draft/mock-draft

 

The Brewers end up with Kyle Cody at #16 and Demi Orimoloye at #40. I would be thrilled at the Brewers drafting Orimoloye at 40, but as of right now a lot of mocks have him being taken much earlier than that. Cody has a mid-90s fastball that topped out at 97. Seems pretty solid, IMO.

[BeerFan]

That would be interesting. Kyle Cody is from Chippewa falls, WI. Remember watching him back in high school at Mcdonell.

[brewcrewdue80]

Definitely a strong chance to see Kyle Cody at 16. MLB has him 18th at the moment. And reading that #40 selection, Demi Orimoloye is ranked #33. Size with both of these two picks. Could see it happen with Demi to Milw too. Though, with reading Demi as toolsy, I wouldn't be surprised he's picked far earlier in the draft to sign for underslot and see money saved used on the next pick(like Medeiros)

 

As for Cody, that would make for a story. A former WI HS young man signing for Milwaukee to play in WI. He reads fairly great on MLB, he must have taken big steps since the last draft as reading on him and video he apparently had tightness in his forearm and moved to a Bullpen role before returning to SP. At that time he had a FB and no hitting the strikezone secondary pitch.

 

Jim Callis had a video ranking the top 10 pitchers in the Cape Cod back in Sept, listing that Cody and another Cody, Cody Ponce had the kind of stuff that made them more reckonized to move up the pitching ladder. The thing is #2 man on that list was Phil Bickford who, seems to be falling from his former #10 pick perch could be there for Milw @#16. The brief video seen on both Cody's and Bickford, right now I'd prefer Bickford. Ponce btw, the boy has a violent release action. Looks almost like he should throw the ball twice as hard with it. I wonder if that motion creates a tougher read as a batter to hit off of? Picking up where the ball is being released? Could that be a plus? Or would he be more fearful of injury? And/or concerns of a consistent ability to maintain control?

 

This will be the first draft with the new Scouting Director Montgomery. Will he go risky? Safe? Best Player Available? I'm wondering if he'll go safe in his first pick, very signable so he doesn't miss out on his first pick. Then maybe get risky his 2nd pick?

[TheCrew07]

While past performance is not indicative of what he'll do in the future here are Montgomery's 1st round picks:

 

[pre]Year Rnd DT OvPck RdPck Name Pos WAR G AB HR BA OPS G W L ERA WHIP SV Type Drafted Out of

2014 1 16 16 Touki Toussaint(minors) RHP HS Coral Springs Christian Academy (Coral Springs FL)

2013 1 15 15 Braden Shipley(minors) RHP 4Yr University of Nevada-Reno (Reno NV)

2013 1 36 36 Aaron Blair(minors) RHP 4Yr Marshall University (Huntington WV)

2012 1 26 26 Stryker Trahan(minors) C HS Acadiana HS (Lafayette LA)

2011 1 3 3 Trevor Bauer(minors) RHP 0.8 34 7 0 .000 .000 34 7 12 4.44 1.44 0 4Yr University of California Los Angeles (Los Angeles CA)

2011 1s 7 7 *Archie Bradley(minors) RHP HS Broken Arrow HS (Broken Arrow OK)

2011 1s 43 43 *Andrew Chafin(minors) LHP 0.3 3 2 0 .500 1.000 3 0 1 3.86 1.50 0 4Yr Kent State University (Kent OH)[/pre]

 

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 2/7/2015.

 

Looks to me like he's a pretty straightforward BPA guy with an emphasis on pitching, Bradley is the pitcher I like most of his 1st round draft picks and yes I'm well aware of his velocity loss and arm slot change last season. I still like him to be a #2 long term.

[brewcrewdue80]

Nice. It's amazing they can keep track of such things on BRef, I don't know how to go through all that site.

 

Of that list The 4 SP prospects rank top 4 overall for the Dbacks. #15 Bradley, Shipley #39, Blair #81, and Toussaint #98 overall for 2015.

 

Let the Bickford pick rumor begin! lol.

 

But boy, that has to really make a fan happy seeing that. Brewers in good Drafting hands.

[narwhalattack]

I'm not as fond of Bickford. Apparently his stuff isn't as good as it was back when he was in high school. According to some reports (I forgot where it's from), in his latest start he was 90-91 with the fastball, which dipped into the upper-80s later into the start. While his stuff was impressive in relief, I think he needs to prove that his stuff is also good as a starter.

[narwhalattack]

Well, now that Shields has signed, time to get the mocks rolling!

[colbyjack]

narwal, read this. Bickford has a special fastball regardless of the radar gun reading:

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=10880

 

TheCrew07, thanks for sharing that. Montgomery has definitely targeted some big arms while with the D-Backs.

[brewcrewdue80]

If the list is correct suggests Milw has the 8th most money pool for the draft at 8.06mil. That competitive balance pick really boosts the team's draft pool and honestly what would believe a better than expected draft class. Due to more money to play with. This leads that 2 players in the to 33 talent ranking possible since other teams with less money may not draft as high upside. Looking forward to more refined draft boards as time nears.

[splitterpfj]

This next draft for the Brewers is set up just like last year's was - they have their first pick in the middle of round one, then they have a Competitive Balance Pick after round one, then they have their second round pick. They used that setup last year to get three kids into the system who have obvious big league potential.

 

The Brewers pushed Medeiros a bit higher than most thought he would be picked, they let Gatewood fall to them, and they had enough cash around to buy Harrison away from Nebraska football. Without the boost in available cash, I doubt the Brewers could have found a way to get all three of those players signed.

 

Gatewood slipped from early projections, but he's absolutely a prospect, and Harrison slid because he was going to be expensive - the Brewers worked the system very well.

 

There's no way of knowing which kids will, "fall" this time around, or who the expensive guys will be, but there's no reason to think the Brewers won't be in position to duplicate last year's approach.

[brewmann04]

Looking forward to see what the Crew will do this draft.