2015 Brewers' 1st-Rd. Pick Speculation

[heresrobin]

Thanks for the effort brewcrewdue80. It was interesting to compare my thoughts to your's on these prospects. The 3 pitchers that I just can't help but like from the High School ranks even though I haven't really seen them mocked near the Brewers are Justin Hooper, Dakota Chalmers, and Triston McKenzie. All 3 are in my personal Top 15 at this point, but they all could have too strong of college commitments for all I know. We'll see...

 

And I can't help but want the Brewers to take either Kyle Cody (Kentucky) or Mitchell Traver (TCU) with their 3rd or 4th picks. A couple of big, low mileage, high-upside college pitchers who interest me. Colbyjack pointed both out earlier in this thread.

[splitterpfj]

Thanks for the effort brewcrewdue80. It was interesting to compare my thoughts to your's on these prospects. The 3 pitchers that I just can't help but like from the High School ranks even though I haven't really seen them mocked near the Brewers are Justin Hooper, Dakota Chalmers, and Triston McKenzie. All 3 are in my personal Top 15 at this point, but they all could have too strong of college commitments for all I know. We'll see...

 

And I can't help but want the Brewers to take either Kyle Cody (Kentucky) or Mitchell Traver (TCU) with their 3rd or 4th picks. A couple of big, low mileage, high-upside college pitchers who interest me. Colbyjack pointed both out earlier in this thread.

 

Hooper tweeted tonight that he is 100% on his commitment to UCLA, saying, "I can't wait to get down to Los Angeles."

 

BCD, I'll bet you had a lot of fun putting all of that together, thanks for contributing your opinions!

[brewcrewdue80]

Thanks for the effort brewcrewdue80. It was interesting to compare my thoughts to your's on these prospects. The 3 pitchers that I just can't help but like from the High School ranks even though I haven't really seen them mocked near the Brewers are Justin Hooper, Dakota Chalmers, and Triston McKenzie. All 3 are in my personal Top 15 at this point, but they all could have too strong of college commitments for all I know. We'll see...

 

And I can't help but want the Brewers to take either Kyle Cody (Kentucky) or Mitchell Traver (TCU) with their 3rd or 4th picks. A couple of big, low mileage, high-upside college pitchers who interest me. Colbyjack pointed both out earlier in this thread.

 

Hooper tweeted tonight that he is 100% on his commitment to UCLA, saying, "I can't wait to get down to Los Angeles."

 

BCD, I'll bet you had a lot of fun putting all of that together, thanks for contributing your opinions!

 

No,no no...you're breaking my Heart. I get it though for Hooper. He's my #3 draft pick and in BA's 5.0 mock...hmm wasn't even listed. They obviously found out he rightfully should be commanding top pay in money and he wasn't about to be drafted where that money will be there. Go to a College for a couple years and become Carlos Rodon top 3 pick the draft he goes to next.

Still, Whitley, Allard, Nikorak aren't tied ahead of Milw pick and they are HR types to me. With Chalmers being just outside that HR opinion also being there.

Lots to be excited about after my studying. Especially when mocks are leaving my top guys available. Now I even feel better I put Allard ahead of Hooper for best Pitcher prospect.

[SRB]

Going into Draft Day morning, I would still love for a surprise Aiken pick, but among more-likely candidates it seems like Whitley or Allard would offer the most excitement (if either is even still around at #15).

[Boomer5]

Aiken needs to be the pick. He has the legit upside of a true #1 and those are rare. He may never throw a pitch in the majors, but at 15 thats what you are getting anyhow in terms of risk. Ill take the reward upside.

[SRB]

Final mock drafts are coming out, and the Funkhouser speculation is still going strong.

[3and2Fastball]

Would be disappointed but not surprised at the Brewers taking a college pitcher with a low ceiling

[reillymcshane]

I just hope baseball changes the way the draft operates.

 

1. Have picks slotted for pay. Simple as that.

 

2. Let teams trade picks.

 

I'm not sure if I would want to force players to commit to the draft, but it is something to consider. I like leaving options for the players to go to college - or return to college - if they don't get selected where they expected. But on the other hand, most of them should be able to get a decent handle on where they'll get picked, so in some ways, I want to say 'make a decision and live with it'.

[brewmann04]

they are looking at a below slot pitcher in the first round from a report on the net.

[brwrsfan]

they are looking at a below slot pitcher in the first round from a report on the net.

 

I apologize...I'm only mildly into the MLB draft.

 

So if this is true, would the idea be that they could take some guys that have fallen a bit in the later rounds and then overpay them? Which was sorta similar to what we did last year?

[patrickgpe]

they are looking at a below slot pitcher in the first round from a report on the net.

it will be interesting to see what Montgomery does in his first draft. I though do not get the point of drafting underslot in the 1st to draft overslot in the competitive balance and 2nd rounds like last year.

[brewmann04]

That what I was thinking had to read that twice to understand. Yes this Draft is going to be interesting under Montgomery.

[splitterpfj]

they are looking at a below slot pitcher in the first round from a report on the net.

 

I apologize...I'm only mildly into the MLB draft.

 

So if this is true, would the idea be that they could take some guys that have fallen a bit in the later rounds and then overpay them? Which was sorta similar to what we did last year?

 

Yes, that's the idea.

 

We're not talking about taking a kid who should have gone in round five, in the first round, this is taking someone who was pegged to go 10-20 picks later. The idea is, you're betting that holding some money back, will allow you to draft and sign 1-2 kids who otherwise would have turned you down, to go to college. If you get it right, you come out with a better haul through round two than you would have if you played it by the book.

 

One the one hand, it's a sign of teams learning how to work the system, on the other hand, it shows how much air this process has in it. We'll have guys taken in round five, specifically because their college eligibility is used up, so they'll come cheap, and we'll have guys taken in round one, because they signed, "below slot."

 

Fix it. Best player, next pick, move on - this is about distributing talent, it's not a carnival game.

[SRB]

brewmann, what's the source of the under-slot pitcher rumor?

[jw5511986]

Speculation continues that the team is looking at college pitching but Callis says that Whitley and Betts are still in the mix as well.

 

I just hope the team takes BPA with a lean towards youth. Allard would be the pick for me.

[wichmae]

I'm still holding out hope for Whitley

[brewcrewdue80]

Funkhauser is my #31 of 35. RP material or #3 ceiling.

With this drafts lack of talent. It is the absolute worst strategy to me to pick signability over BPA. Again 2016s draft is loaded, so if you miss on the signing, you get your pick next year.

 

Allard or Whitley.

Seriously if I had to grade Whitley it'd be 60hit, 65-70power, 60speed, 55arm, 55field, 60overall.

Allard would be 60fb 55cb 50slider 50 changeup with room to improve on them

[TheCrew07]

I find myself kind of bummed out by the publicity regarding the Brewer's pick, and I do understand that historically the pundits have had a real hard time nailing down which way the organization is going to go.

 

I firmly believe that the organization needs to be able to field an impact rotation through a combination of the draft and international signings, but I look at our system and we just don't have comparable arms to the best prospects in other organizations. All of our guys work low 90s or upper 80s, or don't have stuff... surely a couple of those guys may out pitch their perceived ceilings and become 2s, but we don't have the Matz, Glasnow, Taillon, (sticking to names I'm pretty sure everyone will know) and so on type players. As an organization we need impact potential at 3B, 1B, and C, and then of course both RH and LH pitching.

 

I find very little value in "quick to the majors" type draft choices when those guys won't be impact players where we are/have been drafting. We have a ton of guys who could be #3s, drafting those guys is just more of the same. We haven't had a young pitcher with impact potential jump to the top of a league leaderboard since Zach Braddock, and thinking of his rapid decent still hurts, but look at how ridiculously good he was (of course I remember he was shut down with injury):

 

[pre]Year Age AgeDif Tm Lg Lev Aff W L W-L% ERA G IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W

2007 19 -3.0 WestVirginia SALL A MIL 3 1 .750 1.15 10 47.0 28 6 6 1 15 68 0.915 5.4 0.2 2.9 13.0 4.53[/pre]

 

Odorizzi was pretty good but it took him a while to get to WI:

[pre]Year Age AgeDif Tm Lg Lev Aff ERA G IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W

2010 20 -1.6 Wisconsin MIDW A MIL 3.43 23 120.2 99 52 46 7 40 135 1.152 7.4 0.5 3.0 10.1 3.38[/pre]

 

Gallardo was never a plus control guy but here's what he did in A ball:

[pre]Year Age AgeDif Tm Lg Lev Aff ERA G IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W

2005 19 -2.8 WestVirginia SALL A MIL 2.74 26 121.1 100 46 37 5 51 110 1.245 7.4 0.4 3.8 8.2 2.16[/pre]

 

We just haven't had that same level of talent since Jack Z left, and his record drafting pitching was very spotty, I've long argued that they never drafted enough high upside arms during his tenure.

 

I guess what I'm saying is that I'd like to be "wow'd" again, it's been a long time since a Brewer pitching prospect has stood out amongst his peers for me. For years I've been jealous of the upside of the pitching in other organizations as they roll through WI, like when the Jays had Nicolino, Sanchez, and Syndergaard all on the same team... or even someone like the Reds' Amir Garrett who made me say, "Where the hell did this kid come from?" after watching him pitch. By the way, I wouldn't have kept Sanchez, why keep the guy who throws the least strikes? But I digress...

 

[pre]Rk Name Age ERA G IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W

5 Justin Nicolino* 20 2.46 28 124.1 112 41 34 6 21 119 1.070 8.1 0.4 1.5 8.6 5.67

6 Aaron Sanchez 19 2.49 25 90.1 64 33 25 3 51 97 1.273 6.4 0.3 5.1 9.7 1.90

7 Noah Syndergaard 19 2.60 27 103.2 81 41 30 3 31 122 1.080 7.0 0.3 2.7 10.6 3.94[/pre]

 

Lets get some truly projectable young pitchers into the organization who can grow into their bodies and end up with first tier FBs, maybe they develop their secondary stuff, maybe they don't, but I'd rather take a chance on younger players who are at least 3s when they mature than college pitchers who are a #3 best case on draft day. I'd like a mix of those mid ceiling guys sprinkled through the draft, I like getting the Tyler Wagner and Taylor Williams types, but we just aren't drafting enough young pitchers with legitimate upside each year.

[narwhalattack]

While there's talks of the Brewers going for a below-slot deal, there's also a report about the other end of the spectrum.

 

https://twitter.com/nickjfaleris/status/607997267065249792

[Eye Black]

Yes, Nick Faleris (a former BP prospect writer) says the Brewers might be going all-in on one pick. Things could get very interesting over the next couple of hours.

 

@NickJFaleris: #MLBDraft: Milwaukee Brewers are right on the cusp of being on the happy side of "impact leverage" but prob means making draft about 1 pick.

[SRB]

Really excited for tonight's draft, though my excitement dimmed just slightly when I turned on the MLB.com broadcast and remembered we'll have Harold Reynolds talking all night.

 

Is there going to be a new live thread for the draft itself?

[Eye Black]

Is there going to be a new live thread for the draft itself?

Last year we used the Draft Pick Discussion threads that are pinned to the top of the page for "In-Draft Discussion". Assume the same again this year?

 

Also, couldn't agree more on Harold Reynolds, he is going to make every player sound like they will be ready for big league action by this year's trade deadline.

[SRB]

Did I just see a blurry video of Brett Favre wishing Nikorak good luck?

[TheCrew07]

Is there going to be a new live thread for the draft itself?

Last year we used the Draft Pick Discussion threads that are pinned to the top of the page for "In-Draft Discussion". Assume the same again this year?

 

Also, couldn't agree more on Harold Reynolds, he is going to make every player sound like they will be ready for big league action by this year's trade deadline.

 

It's all marketing baby, that's why the scouting reports from mlb.com have typically been on the side of "the absolute best case"... MLB has a vested interest in making every fan love their draft picks, which is why I haven't historically used MLB for much prospect wise.

[splitterpfj]

Is there going to be a new live thread for the draft itself?

Last year we used the Draft Pick Discussion threads that are pinned to the top of the page for "In-Draft Discussion". Assume the same again this year?

 

Also, couldn't agree more on Harold Reynolds, he is going to make every player sound like they will be ready for big league action by this year's trade deadline.

 

Yes, please, once the picks start coming for the Brewers, please discuss in the threads that are pinned on the page.