3B in 2015 if A-Ram not re-signed

[jerichoholicninja]

Guys like Aoki and Ichiro are rare. They usually don't look silly when they strike out.

Really, I would say that Aoki looks more silly offensively and defensively more often than anybody in baseball.

 

Aoki swung at some of the worst pitches I've ever seen a hitter swing at but he would usually make enough contact to foul it off. He has great hand/eye coordination but chooses terrible pitches to swing at.

[JohnBriggs12]

Look, Ramirez has had a fine career with fine career numbers. Much like just retired Paul Konerko, he's not quite HOF material but fine nonetheless.

 

The issue is what can be expected of him in a year he turns 37. On the 25th of August, it appeared he'd be worth the price to bring him back or at the very least give him a QO, But he was a key cog in a 31 game slide, the worst collapse in franchise history. Is that worth rewarding?

 

Rogers has posted .800+ OPS at ever minor league level above rookie ball including in the pitcher friendly Florida State League. He's never been considered a top prospect because his primary position was 1B and he's never been young for his level. Nonetheless, he was given a chance to play 3B this year, and by all accounts at least didn't fall on his face while continuing to hit. I think he's at least a viable candidate to take over the job there. There's also FA much younger than Ramirez out there that they could choose to go after. If they sign LaRoche to play 1B, I believe he's fully capable of replacing Ramirez's bat in the middle of the order. Can Rogers produce better than the departed 1B combo from last year? That's not a high bar even for a rookie.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm completely dumbfounded by the speculation regarding Ramirez. When a 36 year old stumbles like he did the 2nd half of the season with just 4 HR and 26 RBI after June 27th, I'm of the opinion he's at or very close to the end. Half a season is not a short spell and he was as responsible as anyone for the collapse down the stretch. But at least the other guys that stopped hitting, are young enough that one could expect a rebound. Yet everywhere I read speculation that he'll get 2 year deal from $25 to $30 million. Really??? At best this is a guy who'll need to be rested at least once a week who can't run at all, has a walk rate Yuni could be proud of, and who at best might hit 15 HR.

 

If MA has a hole in his pocket, they'd be better off dealing for Ryan Howard and paying half of his salary for a couple years to play 1B. Not advocating that either but at least Howard has a little pop left (23 HR) and his RBI total (95) would have led the Brewers by a wide margin.

[reillymcshane]

When a 36 year old stumbles like he did the 2nd half of the season with just 4 HR and 26 RBI after June 27th, I'm of the opinion he's at or very close to the end.

John, I think you can easily point to the hamstring issue that bothered Ramirez through the second half of the season as a major contributing factor to his power outage. And while half a season is not a sort time frame - it's not the be-all-end-all of judging a player. He still hit .283 after the break. No, the power wasn't there, but I don't think it's crazy that it can come back (at least to some degree) with an off season of rehabilitation and rest.

 

Even with the issues, A-Ram finished with 15 HR and had a .757 OPS. In the majors last year, 3B had a .714 OPS. Aramis' numbers, even diminished, would look good to quite a few clubs. And don't forget DH. Seattle's DHs hit sub .600 OPS last year. They'd have killed for Ramirez's production.

 

All that said, I don't really think we should bring him back. I can live with a one year deal, but even then, Ramirez scares me. He'll be 37. Guys eventually stop hitting and fielding well. I hate to be there for that part of any player's career (Overbay was painful to watch at times last year). Also, Ramirez has had injuries in 4 of the last 6 seasons, missing anywhere from about 30-80 games. His age and history make him a prime candidate for more injuries - especially those nagging types of bumps and bruises that linger and affect you more as you get older.

 

Personally, I think the Brewers will give him a two-year extension. Why? We have no one else, and Melvin thinks (prays) the team can win in the next two years. He won't risk taking a chance on a rookie or castoff. So he'll bring back Aramis and hope the guy can stay healthy for most of the season.

 

It's not what I would do, but I'm not the GM.

 

I think A-Ram would do well to go to an AL club where he can DH - at least part of the time. I think he's still a good hitter. The main thing will be staying healthy - and DHing will help him do that.

[monty57]

I just think the team that signs him will pay for the player he once was, and get the player who is fading into retirement. He can still hit, just not at the level he once could. He can still play 3B, he would just probably be more productive if he didn't play the field everyday. And, of course, he could hit the wall and completely fall apart at any time, as happens to everyone eventually as age catches up to them. I don't want the Brewers to be the team that overpays, especially on a multi-year deal.

[danzig6767]

 

I think A-Ram would do well to go to an AL club where he can DH - at least part of the time. I think he's still a good hitter. The main thing will be staying healthy - and DHing will help him do that.

 

I agree, even though he claims to hate being a DH. Father time catches up with all athletes and Aramis should realize that he would be better served in the AL splitting time between third and DH.

 

I can live with bringing him back next year if the team stays veteran trying to get a playoff berth, but no way would i add a second year to his deal.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

Guys like Aoki and Ichiro are rare. They usually don't look silly when they strike out.

Really, I would say that Aoki looks more silly offensively and defensively more often than anybody in baseball.

what makes you say that? all i remember is aoki making great defensive play after great defensive play when he was a brewer. just because he didn't make crazy diving catches like gomez doesn't mean he wasn't great defensively. he's a lot smarter than gomez and has a stronger and more accurate arm. aoki almost never struck out on junk pitches. braun does it all the time. remember how bad corey hart was with the low slider?

[TooLiveBrew]

Aoki is pretty bad going back on balls in the OF -- it's why he plays so deep.

[JohnBriggs12]

Here's a 3B suggestion. Offer Gallardo to the Yankees for Martin Prado. Yankees have a problem with what to do with A-Rod, and they also have the means to go after Ramirez, or one of the other 3B options should they choose to. I think a corner infield of LaRoche at 3B, and Prado at 3B would be a huge upgrade. Two years of Prado is worth one year of Gallardo.

[JohnBriggs12]

Aoki is pretty bad going back on balls in the OF -- it's why he plays so deep.

 

With the shift on vs. LH power hitters, the gap between the 2B and Aoki, even if he's on the warning track isn't that great and you Aoki better able to cut off balls in the gap or down the line.

[fondybrewfan]

We already have one guy everyone in MLB hates why not add another and just take Arod off their hands? I think I am only half joking. I really don't think the Yankees want Arod playing for them next year so I don't know they will be trying to unload Prado. Trading Arod is probably next to impossible though.

 

Yankees do no need some starting pitching for sure; but I would think more teams would be interested in Garza than Gallardo given the extra year on the contract. I would be torn on a Gallardo for Prado swap. I like Prado but would everyone be comfortable having both Fiers and Nelson in the rotation to start the year? I am not sure.

[JohnBriggs12]

We already have one guy everyone in MLB hates why not add another and just take Arod off their hands? I think I am only half joking. I really don't think the Yankees want Arod playing for them next year so I don't know they will be trying to unload Prado. Trading Arod is probably next to impossible though.

 

Yankees do no need some starting pitching for sure; but I would think more teams would be interested in Garza than Gallardo given the extra year on the contract. I would be torn on a Gallardo for Prado swap. I like Prado but would everyone be comfortable having both Fiers and Nelson in the rotation to start the year? I am not sure.

 

I didn't say the Yankees are trying to unload Prado. You offer them Gallardo to entice them to give him up because the Yankees have had a lot of instability in their rotation and one thing Gallardo is, and that's durable. Yankees have the means to go after Sandoval, or bring in Ramirez as a stop gap too. They like Prado I'm sure, but they may need dependable starting pitching more.

[brewcrewdue80]

Yankees do no need some starting pitching for sure; but I would think more teams would be interested in Garza than Gallardo given the extra year on the contract. I would be torn on a Gallardo for Prado swap. I like Prado but would everyone be comfortable having both Fiers and Nelson in the rotation to start the year? I am not sure.

 

I would be fine with having Nelson/Fiers in the starting rotation and removing Gallardo from it via trade. I dunno if I'd take Prado for Gallardo. Put it this way. You're essentially dumping ARam at 10-14mil cost to put an equal in Prado at 3b for 11mil. and lose Gallardo in the process. Prado's numbers look similar to ARam's declining numbers. Just younger and a little better defensively.

 

I'd rather just pick up ARam's option and target some younger Prospect talent like someone mentioned Garrin Cecchini to be the future at 3b/backup in ARam's final year for Gallardo. In an even fancier thought, ARam plays AS caliber with the bat in the 1st half while Cecchini shows enough that he's ready and the Brewers trade ARam in July's trade deadline. Acquiring some other talent. This scenario plays out in that Braun isn't fixed, Lohse declines, Fiers/Nelson don't pitch to potential and we are saddled back in the standings like the Reds this year all season long. Good enough to be competitive but not good enough to play above .500 ball.

 

That scenario would play out the best for the future. a 3b prospect now and then whatever you'd get for ARam. Prado led to Peter O'Brien and Headley led to Yangervis Solarte+Rafael de Paula. So it's not like we couldn't come away with a ML piece for half year of ARam.

[TURBO]

If The Yankees pay 90% of A-Rod's salary, I'd take him off their hands... You never know, they may be pretty motivated to trade him, but I'm guessing he has a no-trade clause, and I'm guessing Milwaukee would be on it...

 

I have almost no interest in Prado, he was a train wreck last year. If we could get him cheap, and we lose Ramirez, I'd have a little interest, but he can play other positions too, so maybe he has more value than I give him credit for.

 

I really do not want to start the season with Nelson in our rotation, I'm not entirely sure he has earned the #5 spot just yet. It is nice to have him as an injury back-up, but he just didn't seem ready in my opinion. A rotation with Fiers as our #5 sure looks a lot better than Nelson as our #5...

[brewcrewdue80]

I really do not want to start the season with Nelson in our rotation, I'm not entirely sure he has earned the #5 spot just yet. It is nice to have him as an injury back-up, but he just didn't seem ready in my opinion. A rotation with Fiers as our #5 sure looks a lot better than Nelson as our #5...

 

And then 2016? Gallardo/Lohse are for sure gone. What's better for the team's future? Finding out with Nelson learning on the fly if he's going to be a #3/4 type innings eating SP or an emergency #5 but honestly made for Bullpen type? At the cost of in the suggestions Gallardo? Meanwhile we hopefully attained a future 3b?

 

You gotta remember Nelson Pitched 152 minor league inning plus 10 in Sept for 162IP in 2013. So now in 2014 He pitched 111IP+5.2shutout in May so at 116.2 taking on the SP role for Milw in July. A really poor callup outing vs. the Cardinals(not surprising) 4.1 8Runs 6ER. Now at 121IP.

He then rips off 5 straight quality starts. 32IP 12ER a 3.37ERA clip that puts him at 153IP on the season. So can we start to believe his arm would begin wearing down at that point? 9 IP from his previous max on a baseball season. While 3 of his next 4 starts weren't Quality Starts. they still were capable of keeping the team in the game. 5.2:4ER, 5:4ER, 6:3, and 5:4 21.2 19ER Yes the ERA is 7.9 but what would you rather have? A SP who goes 5IP giving up 4ER on his non quality starts. OR a SP who provides say 66% QS out of 33 starts so 22starts. And 8 of those 11 other starts are the kind of 0.1-4IP 5-9ERs? pretty leaving the bullpen to pick up so many innings and putting them in a most likely losing game situation. 4ERs in 5IP keeps the team in the game. And he left under 100pitches so maybe he could have gotten 6IP but due to "Wear and Tear" the team limited the arm usage this late in the season.

 

I'm also considering his FiP at 3.78 vs his end of season ERA at 4.93.

Lohse's FiP: 3.95

Gallardo's FiP:3.94

Garza's FiP: 3.54

Peralta's FiP: 4.11

Fiers' FiP: 2.99

 

Nelson has improved his control. Has good sink in his pitching to keep the ball in the park. I don't think the Brewers are going to lose much in their pitching if they traded one of Lohse or Gallardo and put Nelson in their rotation...Aside from 10+million in Payroll expenses. This is exactly the situation you want if I were a GM. I have what appears to be a capable SP to be my 4/5 and can move a veteran who's the team's #1-3 to fill a hole elsewhere/build for the future.

Gotta learn to let go of the vets when you're capable of doing so and try making the team better elsewhere/for the future. 10mil can go in to the team some other way.... a Bullpen guy on the market. A Utility man OF/INF or just to save towards contract extensions.

Or you stand pat, waste a year's of team control on Nelson and watch Lohse/Gallardo walk with no future pieces to show for it.

The only win is if Lohse/Gallardo lead the Brewers to a Division Title/World Series Appearance and of course winning it. Whereas Nelson would have maybe cost them a Playoff shot in his 185-190 2015 IP vs. Lohse/Gallardo's 185-190IP 2015.

 

Lohse/Gallardo were both worth about 2.5WAR vs. an ERA bloated Nelson's 0WAR. I'd at least project Nelson to be Peralta like in WAR being anything from -1 to 2.7WAR. So we're arguing about 0-3Wins essentially.

Now somebody please tell me how many wins could Cecchini be worth Brewers in a 6year team controlled span? Especially over the 3b fillins we'd be looking at in 2016/2017? I'd imagine Far more than 3Wins. It's time to make the move.

[MNBrew]

The fact is that Nelson totally stunk the longer he was in the rotation, and then was really no better out of the pen. For all the reasons touted above and his legit showing in AAA this year, the net is that he's a mixed bag. Does he have a Peralta-like ceiling/trajectory still ahead of him? Or is the August/September version of him in the bigs all he'll be? It's simply conjecture either way, and the numbers can be (and have been) slanted toward either perspective.

 

Lohse is showing no signs of slowing down yet. He'd also net us less of a trade return. And while folks on here aren't keen on this in general, he's got plenty of positive leadership attributes that many others including Yo significantly lack. Gallardo, on the other hand, has shown consistent weaknesses over the long haul that make him a better trade candidate, and he's young enough & has clearly enough upside at times that he might net a far better return.

 

Sorry, the topic's twisting away.... back on track, I want nothing to do with A-Rod. The Yankees are at fault for that absurd extension and need to reap what they've sown with him.

[Bombers]

If The Yankees pay 90% of A-Rod's salary, I'd take him off their hands... You never know, they may be pretty motivated to trade him, but I'm guessing he has a no-trade clause, and I'm guessing Milwaukee would be on it...

 

I want nothing to do with A-Rod. The Yankees are at fault for that absurd extension and need to reap what they've sown with him.

 

If we offered Gallardo for A-Rod, I am guessing the Yankees do that trade in a minute including covering 90% of his salary. (Side note: I don't even know what covering 90% means though as he is owed $61 million over the next 3 years plus this little blurb on baseball reference for each year: $30m in marketing bonuses for HR milestones from 660 HR to 763HR.) I am unsure what that little hidden gem means. What's the definition of a milestone? Does he get $30 million each time? a % of the total of the $30 and ultimately adding up to a total of $30 if he hits them all?

 

I guess ignoring that little blurb, Gallardo is making $13 million this year. So if you take the $13 off of the $61 and the Brewers agree to pay him $2 million each year, they would have to send along $42 million to unload him. The Cubs traded Soriano and sent along $30 million to clear him for just a year and a half. (And all they got back was a minor league relief pitcher.) So I doubt we would even have to trade Gallardo. To me, it isn't really that far fetched for the Yankee's to just want A-Rod gone.

 

So would the guy (Doug Melvin) who signed A-Rod to the richest contract in MLB history want him back? Maybe. I think part of the issue with him not coming here has more to do with the Brewers relationship with Hank Aaron and Bud Selig than A-Rod's no trade clause. I would imagine he is on 20 teams no trade list. Meaning there are probably at least 20 teams who do not want him, even with the Yankee's picking up the salary. So his options are limited to begin with. But in my opinion, he is in play for the Brewers. I just feel Doug would take him on again with the dim outlook we have at 1B and 3B.

[reillymcshane]

 

If we offered Gallardo for A-Rod, I am guessing the Yankees do that trade in a minute including covering 90% of his salary. (Side note: I don't even know what covering 90% means though as he is owed $61 million over the next 3 years plus this little blurb on baseball reference for each year: $30m in marketing bonuses for HR milestones from 660 HR to 763HR.) I am unsure what that little hidden gem means. What's the definition of a milestone? Does he get $30 million each time? a % of the total of the $30 and ultimately adding up to a total of $30 if he hits them all?

 

 

A-Rod gets $6M each for reaching the following HR totals: 660, 714, 755 and tying and breaking major league HR record. That's five milestones at $6M each for a potential total of $30M.

[monty57]

The fact is that Nelson totally stunk the longer he was in the rotation, and then was really no better out of the pen. For all the reasons touted above and his legit showing in AAA this year, the net is that he's a mixed bag.

 

Greg Maddux rookie year 5.52 ERA, year two 5.61 ERA

Randy Johnson was traded away from Montreal in year two with a 6.67 ERA and 1.85 WHIP

Curt Schilling rookie year 9.82 ERA, year two 6.23 ERA

Ben Sheets first three years 4.76, 4.15, 4.45

 

I just pulled up a few pitchers that came to mind right away. Nothing scientific, but I think it's awfully premature to make a judgement on a young pitcher off of a few bad outings at the end of an otherwise stellar year.

 

Unfortunately, I think that's what a large number of Brewer fans want and Brewer management play to this crowd because they buy tickets. Gennett and Davis looked good in a month's worth of big league PAs at the end of 2013, so they're given starting jobs and everyone cheers and expects them to be superstars. Nelson, who is far more talented than either of the above players will get stuck in the bullpen because for some reason we can't trust the guy because of a few bad starts. By the time he (and Thornburg) are "proven" enough for Brewer management and fans to trust them, they'll be in their arby years. Meanwhile, the guys who should be traded this offseason to let Nelson start will leave for free agency and we will get nothing in return. Then we'll continue to hear that there is nothing we could do to improve our farm... it's all the fault of bad drafting.

 

Lohse is showing no signs of slowing down yet. He'd also net us less of a trade return.

 

So he's showing no signs of slowing down, meaning that he's good enough for our "contending" team, but no other team would see any value in him in regards to trade. Contradictory argument.

 

To topic, basically I think Ramirez will be back, although I don't really want him back at the price he'll be paid. With him, I don't think we have much of a shot at the playoffs, but if he leaves I don't think the Brewers will be able to fill all the holes in their roster. So, as I've said for a while, the offseason depends on the Ramirez situation, and to answer the "who should be 3B if Ramirez isn't back" title of the thread: If Ramirez isn't coming back, the Brewers should take a step back in 2015 to be much better in 2016 and beyond. They should trade away the guys who are going into the final year of their contract (Lohse, Gallardo, Broxton) and possibly Gomez, and let guys like Rogers, Nelson, Fiers, Henderson, Thornburg, Davis, Segura, etc play to determine if they are going to be part of the next upswing that will start as our young prospects get MLB ready (supplemented by the big inflow of talent from the aforementioned trades).

 

Note that I don't think this is likely, because Brewer brass is worried about ticket sales falling, but I think it's our best bet to have a playoff caliber team in the not-too-distant future. The past few years have shown that with the 2nd wild card team, if you spend money and put together an average-ish MLB team, you should be around .500 and if things go your way, you could get into the playoffs. That was the purpose of adding the 2nd wild card (keep more fans interested throughout the season), and from that aspect it's been a huge success for MLB.

[Bombers]

Thanks for the info Reilly.

 

So he's showing no signs of slowing down, meaning that he's good enough for our "contending" team, but no other team would see any value in him in regards to trade. Contradictory argument.

I agree with this. Lohse has value. Probably equivalent to what Marcum had at time of his trade. Lohse is relatively cheap and has a 3+ ERA. That is a definite plus arm someone would be adding into the rotation. If someone wanted him, they would be giving up one of their top 2 guys to get him. (A la us and Lawrie)

[Roderick]

The fact is that Nelson totally stunk the longer he was in the rotation, and then was really no better out of the pen. For all the reasons touted above and his legit showing in AAA this year, the net is that he's a mixed bag.

 

Greg Maddux rookie year 5.52 ERA, year two 5.61 ERA

Randy Johnson was traded away from Montreal in year two with a 6.67 ERA and 1.85 WHIP

Curt Schilling rookie year 9.82 ERA, year two 6.23 ERA

Ben Sheets first three years 4.76, 4.15, 4.45

 

I just pulled up a few pitchers that came to mind right away. Nothing scientific, but I think it's awfully premature to make a judgement on a young pitcher off of a few bad outings at the end of an otherwise stellar year.

 

Not saying your premise is wrong, but you sure cherrypicked those stats.

Greg Maddux - Age 20 & 21 seasons

Curt Schilling Age 21 & 22 with a total of 9 appearances in those two seasons you throw that era out for

Ben Sheets Age 22, 23, 24

 

So out of those, Randy Johnson is the only comparable age-wise to Nelson. And I find it curious you left out his few appearances his first season with a good era, but would include them for Schilling.

[monty57]

The fact is that Nelson totally stunk the longer he was in the rotation, and then was really no better out of the pen. For all the reasons touted above and his legit showing in AAA this year, the net is that he's a mixed bag.

 

Greg Maddux rookie year 5.52 ERA, year two 5.61 ERA

Randy Johnson was traded away from Montreal in year two with a 6.67 ERA and 1.85 WHIP

Curt Schilling rookie year 9.82 ERA, year two 6.23 ERA

Ben Sheets first three years 4.76, 4.15, 4.45

 

I just pulled up a few pitchers that came to mind right away. Nothing scientific, but I think it's awfully premature to make a judgement on a young pitcher off of a few bad outings at the end of an otherwise stellar year.

 

Not saying your premise is wrong, but you sure cherrypicked those stats.

Greg Maddux - Age 20 & 21 seasons

Curt Schilling Age 21 & 22 with a total of 9 appearances in those two seasons you throw that era out for

Ben Sheets Age 22, 23, 24

 

So out of those, Randy Johnson is the only comparable age-wise to Nelson. And I find it curious you left out his few appearances his first season with a good era, but would include them for Schilling.

 

 

I just quickly looked up the first few names that came to my head when I thought of recent good pitchers, and the Brewers' most recent good home-grown pitcher. Just showing that it's not a good idea to give up on a promising young player because of a slow start, especially in a small sample. I doubt Nelson will end up in the Hall of Fame, but there's reason to believe that he will be a capable MLB starter if given the chance.

[MNBrew]

Thanks for the info Reilly.

 

So he's showing no signs of slowing down, meaning that he's good enough for our "contending" team, but no other team would see any value in him in regards to trade. Contradictory argument.

I agree with this. Lohse has value. Probably equivalent to what Marcum had at time of his trade. Lohse is relatively cheap and has a 3+ ERA. That is a definite plus arm someone would be adding into the rotation. If someone wanted him, they would be giving up one of their top 2 guys to get him. (A la us and Lawrie)

Not a contradictory argument at all. Lohse is 36. Gallardo is 28. All other things being close to equal, teams would likely give up less to get Lohse than Gallardo due to the age difference -- the same point many posters have made in several related threads.

[Bombers]

I was more or less agreeing that Lohse has value. (Not advocating he has more value than Gallardo) ... However, if we traded Lohse - we should get one of their top positional prospects for him. (A la Shaun Marcum)

[monty57]

Thanks for the info Reilly.

 

So he's showing no signs of slowing down, meaning that he's good enough for our "contending" team, but no other team would see any value in him in regards to trade. Contradictory argument.

I agree with this. Lohse has value. Probably equivalent to what Marcum had at time of his trade. Lohse is relatively cheap and has a 3+ ERA. That is a definite plus arm someone would be adding into the rotation. If someone wanted him, they would be giving up one of their top 2 guys to get him. (A la us and Lawrie)

Not a contradictory argument at all. Lohse is 36. Gallardo is 28. All other things being close to equal, teams would likely give up less to get Lohse than Gallardo due to the age difference -- the same point many posters have made in several related threads.

 

Sorry, I didn't realize you were saying "less trade value than Gallardo." I thought you were saying he had little trade value.

 

I agree that Gallardo should have greater trade value than Gallardo, but it really depends on the other team. A team looking to win now that wants veteran leadership and stability may favor Lohse, while a team looking to extend the player beyond one year would favor Gallardo. Either way, I think one of them should be traded, and I think we could get decent value back for either of the players. I'd really hate to see us hold onto both of them and watch both walk away as free agents after the season for no return.