Expansion draft scenario

[vannzee]

Hello,

 

This is a copy of something that has been making the rounds on sbnation and I found to be a fascinating topic. What players would be available in an MLB expansion draft?

 

The rules are…

 

Select the 15 players from your teams organization (not just 40 man roster) that you would protect.

 

Players drafted or signed after 2012 are automatically protected, and pending free agents can not be protected. (Here is where most free agents to be are listed: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/potential-free-agents-for-2015/ )

 

After the initial 15 then please list an additional 6 that would be protected in case a player or two from your team is picked then those others could also become protected.

 

Also, if possible please list notable players exposed and free agents to be…if possible.

 

I think that this could be fascinating to see and really tough for the Brewers. For example on SBNation they had Nelson left unprotected.

 

Thank you and have fun.

[patrickgpe]

Honestly, going through this exercise shows me just how bleak (at the moment) our future is. Its hard to come up with 15 I would protect, couldn't even come up with 6 additional.

 

anyway I would protect:

1) Fiers

2) Lohse

3) Nelson

4) Peralta

5) Smith

6) Lucroy

7) Gennett

8) Segura

9) Gomez

10) Roache

11) Tyrone Taylor

12) Coulter

13) Wang

14) Parra

15) Davis

[Roderick]

I would be curious how signing bonuses would work. If we expose our 1st rounder and he gets drafted, is there any prorated recoup of the bonus paid by the Brewers? Also the same angle for players that we have deferred salaries for, Lohse has $7M deferred and has already earned 2/3 of it I would assume. Who is paying that if he is expansion drafted?

 

No particular order:

Lucroy

Nelson

Peralta

Gennett

Gomez

Segura

Davis

Fiers

Jeffress

Smith

Thornburg? medical exemption from draft???

 

Then I basically would take the BFNet top 25 prospects and protect them in that order. With the save six more picks after a draftee, I would continue on with the BFNet top 25, with the exception that if a team selected for example Gallardo, I am going to then protect Lohse and Garza as I don't want a big hole in the rotation. Same if a team picked Braun, I am going to protect Parra.

[patrickgpe]

I don't think Gallardo could be drafted, he has an option for next year. Lohse and Garza are tough ones. I protected Lohse has he has the shorter contract and pitched better for us this season.

[trwi7]

I think teams would be allowed to protect far more than 15 players.

[vannzee]

In previous years teams have only been allowed to protect the 15. Which is shocking when you consider the previous terribleness of expansion teams, that's probably more of a testament to teams trying to avoid salary commitments.

[vannzee]

I would be curious how signing bonuses would work. If we expose our 1st rounder and he gets drafted, is there any prorated recoup of the bonus paid by the Brewers? Also the same angle for players that we have deferred salaries for, Lohse has $7M deferred and has already earned 2/3 of it I would assume. Who is paying that if he is expansion drafted?

 

Thornburg? medical exemption from draft???

 

 

I don't think a team would get a signing bonus back because players who have been drafted in 2012 or later are automatically protected so the soonest a first round could have been drafted is 2011, which would mean he would have played four seasons with the team.

 

Not sure how an option clause would work.

 

Also there is no medical exception for an expansion draft. Injured players can be picked.

[logan82]

I don't think a team would get a signing bonus back because players who have been drafted in 2012 or later are automatically protected so the soonest a first round could have been drafted is 2011, which would mean he would have played four seasons with the team.

 

Not sure how an option clause would work.

 

Also there is no medical exception for an expansion draft. Injured players can be picked.

If the bolded part is true you need to rephrase your opening post. Patrick has at least 3 players who would be exempt.

[patrickgpe]

In previous years teams have only been allowed to protect the 15. Which is shocking when you consider the previous terribleness of expansion teams, that's probably more of a testament to teams trying to avoid salary commitments.

 

if there was a hypothetical expansion team would they really draft a player like Braun? Every team has a few players that are under performing and overpaid, and drafting them would probably make you a .500 team with a huge payroll. I think its much smarter to try to build through the draft.

 

Its a new team in a new city, people will show up. You don't need to win right away.

[vannzee]

I agree, I don't think you would see a lot of star players selected. I think it this day in age it would be more likely to see players who shine saber-metrically and have potential then high priced stars. However, I could see a team taking a risk on a high salary player if the player is still decently young and the contract isn't a huge albatross.

[vannzee]

It would be interesting to get a list of every team and then try to build a mock roster off of that, but I do not think that every team has a fanboard such as this one.

[adambr2]

Lucroy, Gomez, Peralta, Fiers, Gennett, Davis. Will Smith I suppose.

 

Sad to say, that is probably all I would protect at the major league level.

[Outlander]

Fiers

Lohse

Nelson

Peralta

Smith

Lucroy

Gennett

Arcia

Gomez

Michael Reed

Tyrone Taylor

Davis

Parra

Jeffress

Clint Coulter

 

Next 6:

 

Tyler Cravy

Jason Rogers

Tyler Wagner

Taylor Jungmann

Tyler Thornburg

Matt Garza

[645]

I signed here on Brewerfan just to reply to this question. History in baseball from a stats point of view that time is in the favors of pitching. Pitching gets stronger every year and Expansion favors Hitting. When you have expansion it's turns it in the favor of hitter for about 4 years.

 

So with that said the strongest pitching ever got was back in 1968 and right now it is pritty close to what it was then. Not many teams are scoring more then 3 runs all that offen. It is possable we are where it was in 1966 or 67. So clearly expansion is needed and is coming.

 

So for this I want to more thought in it then every and they to make it more believable.

 

So the first question is when will the Expansion draft happen and to come up with an answer you got to put a time table on what has to happen first.

 

So Selig is retiring after next season and we know he isn't going to put that into action and the new guy isn't going to anything tell after he is gone so we know nothing is going to happen in 2015.

 

First try have to find owners and city to put the teams in and that will happen in the offseason after the 2015 season and once they have that in place they have give them enough time to pertake in the June draft and to that fast enough for them to it in 2016 is not possable. So 2017 will be the first draft for those teams and they have to have 3 drafts to have a minor system to support the majors team. So that's 2018 and 2019. So they will start play in 2020. So the Expansion will happen in the off season after the 2019. So to go though the roster with that in mind.

 

Starters

Mike Fiers - he will be 35 years old for the 2020 season but although he should get better with all pitcher by then and he likely will be paid more by then but I fail to see why they would want to protect an aging pitcher that will start to decline after expansion.

 

Kyle Lohse - Hello, 41 Years old, That should answer it.

 

Matt Garza - another young one at 37

 

Yovani Gallardo - 34? It's borderline and his talent is right now but it's possable unless they find some younger pitcher by then.

 

Wily Peralta - He's young and still be somewhat then. So he is a given.

 

Jimmy Nelson - Some here and is a Given protect.

 

Johnny Hellweg and Wang likely will be starters by then and given protect

 

 

Bullpen

 

Jeremy Jeffress is the only pitcher in the pen that will be young enough still then to be worth keeping.

 

 

Catcher

 

Lucroy - Will be 33 and will have his pay day by then. So to answer this one truthfully it's tied to Coulter. If Coulter proves by then he can be the everyday catcher then the might not protect Lucroy but if Coulter don't prove it then they will have to protect lucroy.

 

1st Base

 

Who Knows who will be the first baseman by then. So who could say who to protect although you could say Jason Rogers but it's still a far way away from being a sure thing.

 

2nd Base

 

Scooter - He's a lock on protecting.

 

Shortstop

 

Segura - He is a given to

 

3rd Base

 

That's another postion you can't call.

 

Outfield

 

This outfield we have now will be old by then and likely overpaid.

 

So the truth is who they protect are going to mostly players that are on there top prospects list or players they haven't drafted yet.

[rwa12]

645,

 

The only way this exercise makes sense is to take the current system into account. By 2019, we will know exactly what we have in our farm system. It can be assumed that the majority of the ML squad would not be protected 5 years out.

[645]

Yeah, I know it isn't easy to pretect 5 years out but it's fun trying. but you know that is when the draft will take place and I like trying to look that far out.