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What would you do if you were GM?


Let's say Mark fires Doug, and hands the team over to you. What do you do this offseason?

 

I don't think I'm in the minority when I say it's time to rebuild. This team caught lightning in a bottle for one month this season, but besides that it's been mediocre at best, just as it has been for 3 years now. On top of that, the future doesn't look much brighter.

 

So if it's me, I'm done with trying to add 2nd tier free agents, and it's time (for once) to start selling high on players rather than wait until their value wanes and sell low. Few, if any, of the current Brewers will be a part of the next team that is a legitimate championship contender. So IMO any value they have should be aimed towards acquiring players that will be (aka prospects).

 

The only relative untouchables are players that are young, cheap, and still have potential to improve (Gennett, Davis, Segura, Peralta, Fiers, Nelson) and the faces of the franchise (Lucroy, Braun - who we can hope will return more to form next season). I'm shopping Gomez big time this offseason to start to restock the farm system, as well as Lohse, Garza, and Broxton. I would probably exercise my option on Ramirez and Yo, primarily because they should have some value come the 2015 deadline, at which time they should be dealt for more prospects. That, plus the tickets they help sell since the team won't be gutted will make their salaries easier to stomach. But again, that's only if they are traded if/when they should be. Also, they are not blocking any notable prospects, which is important. No more stopgaps at 1B, let Clark take his shot there, and same goes for any other position that opens up from trades, injuries, lack of production, or otherwise.

 

I have a feeling the coming years are going to be tough to stomach, so the question is do we try to plug holes and put out a product much like the past few years and hope the prospects we have/draft develop? Or do we actively build for the future, possibly at the detriment of the major league product over the next few years? I vote for the latter.

I am not Shea Vucinich
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They have pitching that should have value in the market place in Lohse and Gallardo. I'd trade one if not both depending on what they can bring in return. I'm coming around to the idea of dealing Gomez but only for a big return. I would also only pick up Ramirez' option to trade him. I'd overspend to get Sandoval to play 3B. He'd be a terrific run producer in Miller Park.

 

I'm of the belief that the Brewers can never do what the Cubs did. They'll lose too much revenue in lost ticket sales if they don't at least try to compete every year and they still have some nice pieces that are worth watching. But they have to start with getting fewer free swingers and more consistent hitters.

 

Braun's method of dealing with his hand isn't working. He has to consider surgery even if it might not work.

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What I would do is first trade Fiers maybe there is a GM out there dumb enough to think he is a sub 3.00 ERA pitcher. Fiers is more along a 4.00-4.50 ERA pitcher but lets see first if a GM out there will be dumb enough to part with a decent prospect for a #5 type pitcher.

 

Then I would trade either Gomez or Lucroy for a decent sized return. That should then set up the Brewers for a nice wave of prospects in the next 2-3 years.

 

I would also try to trade either Lohse or Gallardo. I believe Gallardo will get the better prospect so we will be stuck with Lohse which isn't all that bad. Broxton would just be a salary dump type trade so not going to get much for him if anything.

 

Ramirez is going to turn down his side of the option and I would then offer him a QO which he would quickly turn down. This will be tricky to see if the Brewers get a comp pick or not the past has been very unkind to aging veterans who have been offered a QO.

 

I would then tell my manager if they batted Gennett and Segura higher than 7th and 8th in the lineup they would be fired.

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1) Fire the manager and bring in a guy who understands sabermetrics.

2) Work with the players so they understand sabermetrics at least a little bit so the weird lineups and other moves make some sense.

3) Build towards a 90 win team for 2016-2017. Probably means trading Gomez and starting Parra in CF for a year. Trade one or two more players to acquire younger talent. Set 2016-2017 as the goal for the next year we compete.

4) Promote someone to Scouting Director. The Things seemed to be moving in the right direction in the drafts in recent years.

5) Ask Mark A. to stop negotiating with agents while I am GM. If he hired me to run things let me do my job.

Fan is short for fanatic.

I blame Wang.

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1-Trade Carlos Gomez

No set designation on what positions we get for him, whatever team is offering the most gets him. Obviously a legit front of the rotation pitcher would be a target/.

2-Pick up the option on Yo, then trade him. I believe he's worth one good though not top 50 prospect and another lower tier guy with good tools.

3-Pick up option on Ramirez and trade him if he opts in, make QO if he opts out. I don't think you're getting much at this point and price tag, but given the market, I think you can get something out of him.

4-Try to convince Braun to have surgery. And then move him to 1st.

5-Shop Broxton, but trading him is not a necessity. Eat 3-3.5 million if it gets the job done.

6-Definitely TRY to trade Garza. If I was the GM, the whole idea would be to build for 2017-18, and I really doubt Garza pitches more than 475 innings the next 3 years and further doubt he's a viable starting pitching option past that. On that one I'd eat maybe...8 million dollars? I think he's still got value and is a good pitcher, so MAYBE a team like the Yankees want him.

7-ATTEMPT to move Lucroy to 3rd. See if he can handle the job. If so, start Maldy, and play Luc at 3rd. I'd certainly consider trading Lucroy, but I'd prefer to do it in another year or two as you need some talent on the field. Of course if the offer blows you away...

 

In all these trades I'd like to get back an Ariel Pena, Hellweg type. You get enough of those guys and you're going to come out with at least one or two who can develop.

 

8-I'd drop the payroll to 50-60 million over the next 2-4 years and try to save money for when we're able to compete. A "fund," or however you'd like to describe it similar to what the Packers have. This would of course kills us in terms of attendance, but Milwaukee fans are smart. I'd simply try to articulate what I'm trying to do, point 90 miles South and hope they're patient and we can still draw 2-2.5 a year.

 

9-I'd pick out which year looks the most promising among the next couple and sign every international free agent we could, overpaying if necessary. 10-12 players for 20-25 million dollars one year and then sitting out the next year is a better investment IMO than Lohse and Gallardo for 2 years.

 

10-Perhaps this should rank ahead of the last several, but I'd pay whatever necessary to get the best scouting director as frankly, his job is more important than mine in terms of long term success.

 

11-Fire RR and the entire staff and try to find a minor league coach who has done a really good job at developing talent. Let the coach and players grow together. Roenicke might be that guy, but I question if he'd be truly invested in 3-4 years of likely losing 90+ games.

 

 

 

There is a legitimate chance the Brewers could contend next year. They win the division if they just win 40 pct of their games over their two exceptionally poor stretches. So it's possible the Brewers could come back and up the payroll a bit more, spend 110 million and maybe we move a couple pieces around, Segura comes back and things work out better next year.

 

BUT...how long can a small market team, even with a payroll in the middle of the league really expect to content when you go into the season hoping that several guys over 35 years old perform?

 

 

There is a TON of risk to a move like this. In 3-4 years you might be out of a job and the franchise might spend the next 20 years floundering like it did prior to Mark A taking over for Wendy. Of you could catapult the team into an era like the Rays have experienced, expect whereas the Rays have to cut their payroll to ~50 million, we'd be able to spend 110 million and keep guys like David Price.

 

Our farm system could easily be a top 15 system next year and a top 5 system in the next couple years from the Gomez, Gallardo, Lohse, Garza and potential Lucroy trade down the road. And I'd rather go for a player like Buxton and end up with a guy who tops out at A+ than go for a lower risk player and have him become a big league player.

 

Lineup next year

1B-Cark/Rogers/Braun when healthy

2B-Gennett-Let him face lefties. Either he develops and hits them like other really lefties have, or he's a career platoon player. But no reason not to give him the chance if we're blowing it up.

SS-Segura-I still believe he's a sparkplug and AS caliber SS.

3B-I really have no idea. I'd look at all the "Ian Stewart," types that are available. In fact I'd do that at every position, but in particular at 3rd. I'd LIKE to work Lucroy in here if that experiment works out at all.

C-Lucroy/Maldy.

LF-Khris Davis-I think he can develop into a .280/.360/.475 type hitter. Still AWFUL arm out there. He's a guy I'd trade in a heartbeat after a big year, but for now he's good.

CF-Logan Schafer-I still believe he can be a good major league player.

RF-Parra/Braun. See how Braun handles 1st and if he's healthy. Parra is a guy I'd trade during the year.

Pitching Staff-

SP-Peralta, Nelson, Fiers set in stone.

Hellweg, Pena, Jungman, Bradley, Cravy, Smith, Thornburg(if healthy)-Let all of them compete.

RP-That's the last part of the team you worry about when you're not planning on contending.

 

Next year would be REALLY rough, but in the following year you could see position players like Taylor, Arcia, Rivera among others and pitchers like Wagner, Williams, Goforth. But it's obviously going to take 3-4 years before we really start getting impact talent to the big leagues.

 

 

 

 

So...basically, I'd do what the Cubs are doing, but I think we are in better positions than they were when they started their rebuild, though they have a lot more money.

Icbj86c-"I'm not that enamored with Aaron Donald either."
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1. Resign Ramirez

2. Find an actual 1B

3. Find a good super utility player for SS and 2B

4. Trade one of Garza or Gallardo; don't really care which

5. Sign at a minimum 2 proven bullpen arms

6. Invent some hand procedure to fix Braun's thumb; or invent an untraceable PED

 

I would put some feelers out there just to see what a return might be on Gomez or Lucroy but I absolutely wouldn't trade them unless it is a monster haul. If you find a good taker for either one of them then perhaps you go all fire sale. But I think this team is close enough and has the budget to fill some key holes and be competitive next year.

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CF-Logan Schafer-I still believe he can be a good major league player.

 

This is where you lost all credibility. AAAA guy at best and has proven incapable of being even a 5th outfielder. If the goal is to pay nothing for CF, not the worst idea although you'll get negative WAR productivity. He's just not good at baseball. Much better and likely cheap options on the late off season, FA scrum.

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Let's say Mark fires Doug, and hands the team over to you. What do you do this offseason?

1. Fire them all. Damn near everyone.

2. Trade damn near everyone. Carlos Gomez. Kyle Lohse. Gerardo Parra. Yo Gallardo. Aram if he takes his option. I trade everyone for AAA or guys who were just brought up in 2014.

3. My focus as a GM would be the 2017 season. Throw out 2015. We are going to suck. 2016 will maybe see a few guys on the team, but 2017 should be our target year. With the influx from the trades, Clint Coulter, Tyrone Taylor, Orlando Arcia will hopefully be big pieces on this team come 2017.

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I would fire myself and hire Mike Girsch, Asst. GM of the Cardinals.

lol. Lock it up. This thread is done. In all honesty this is the guy we should go get.

 

http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/stl/team/frontoffice_bios/michael_girsch.jsp

 

" In 2008, he was named Director of the newly created Baseball Development department - a group focused on supporting Baseball Operations via internet applications, analytical models and decision support tools. Girsch led the Baseball Development department for three years before being promoted to Assistant GM."

 

Ummmmmm, sign me up for that! Go get it done Mark!

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But I think this team is close enough and has the budget to fill some key holes and be competitive next year.

And so does Mark A thus why I see about a 1% chance at a rebuild. We have a chance at "being competitive" and Mark and Doug are satisfied with that. We as fans are not, and want greatness, but Mark is fine with just being competitive.

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I don't think Mark and Doug are satisfied with just being competitive. It's easy to say "trade them all," but we don't know what prospects are being made available. Would you really be satisfied trading Loshe or Garza for a couple C-level prospects? The whole "blow it up" philosophy is contingent on being able to get impact talent in return. The trend lately is to covet impact prospects. I'd argue that Melvin has been taking the Money Ball approach of exploiting what is undervalued in the market by signing Loshe and Garza to under-market deals.
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I don't think Mark and Doug are satisfied with just being competitive. It's easy to say "trade them all," but we don't know what prospects are being made available. Would you really be satisfied trading Loshe or Garza for a couple C-level prospects? The whole "blow it up" philosophy is contingent on being able to get impact talent in return. The trend lately is to covet impact prospects. I'd argue that Melvin has been taking the Money Ball approach of exploiting what is undervalued in the market by signing Loshe and Garza to under-market deals.

This is true. And there isn't another club like the Brewers who love trading young cost controlled talent for 1 - 2 years of service from an "all-star." The Brewers have traded away so much and are sitting here with just a bad looking team and a horrendous upper Minor's system. We don't have 1 guy above A ball that is ranked in our top 10 in our organization.

 

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=31859

 

Heck, in our top 15 we only have 1 guy. Taylor Jungmann. And it isn't like he is setting the world on fire with his 3.98 ERA this year at AAA. He is a middling prospect at best. Not a guy who looks like a top of the rotation starter. Not a whole lot to get excited about. This is why the Brewers need to hit the reset button. This team has more holes than positions filled especially if Aram ops out. We have a hole at 1B, 3B, SS. Our organization doesn't think our 2nd baseman can hit lefties and our left fielder hit an awesome .243 / .299 / .457 / .756 clip. His .299 OBP is good for 15th best in baseball out of 17 qualifying. If you take the qualifying off he is the 48th best LF based on OBP in all of baseball. Awesome.

 

Looking at next season, which player are you like - can't wait to see him play again. Lucroy. Gomez. (crickets .....) Doug is scraping at the walls with his mediocre talent. And coming up next is more mediocre talent. So Mark A, please aim for 2017, re-build it and can Doug.

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Replace Seid.

 

Tell RR that hitting coach is canned.

 

Have scouting staff see if there are any 3Bs that we can trade for that could be starter in 2015. Assuming none, tag and re-sign ARam for one season. I don't see any option as there are no internal candidates and I don't see any free agent that I would think lasts 3+ years that are worth the money.

 

Trade Gallardo. I don't think he would get a huge return, after the option pricetag, but I am still doing it. I am going to risk the season that both Fiers and Nelson can be decent enough in 2015. If not, we sell off more parts in July.

 

Arby Parra, pricey, but he adds all sorts the flexibility of platooning Davis or moving Braun to 1B or starting in CF if Gomez is traded.

Arby Kintzler, Maldanado.

 

Sign a loogie for the pen. Why wasn't Gorzy used at all when he came back, does anyone know?????

 

Find a right-handed super utility IF that isn't a terrible batter.

 

See what Gomez brings back in trade, targeting prospects that will be MLB by 2016.

If he is traded: See what Lucroy brings in trade (which should be a ton), start Maldy. Try all the youth at 1B, consider 2015 their extended tryouts. Sell off parts at deadline. Save up money for 2016-2017 "go for its".

If he isn't traded: Sign an setup guy for the pen. Spend the Gallardo money on LaRoche and give it another go in 2015, hoping that improvement from LaRoche, Braun, K.Davis, Segura makes up for any decline or injuries that may happen to Gomez, Lucroy, ARam.

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The "Youth at 1st base" you mentioned...isn't young...in fact, Matt Clark is only 6 months younger than Lucroy

 

Regardless, the point would be not to spend any money in 2015 and save it for 2016 if I trade away Gomez. If one of the "untested" 1B performs in 2015 and earns the 2016 job, great. If not, the Brewers would have to plan to spend real money on it in 2016.

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Other than Lucroy or Gomez I don't think you could get anything significant for any player. If I'm an opposing GM no way to give up a legitimate prospect for one year of Gallardo or Lohse.

 

- I'd look to move Gomez for two young pitching prospects with at least #2 potential. I'm not sure what you'll get for him but he's still a productive player who is almost guaranteed to give you 20-20 and gold glove caliber defense. He's got to be worth something good.

 

- I don't understand why people want to move Lucroy off catcher. I think they've forgotten life before Lucroy. I remember I listed all the catchers we used the prior 4 or 5 years before him and if I called that list pathetic it would be a compliment. Maldonado is not young and he's not a good hitter. Career line of .226/.291/361. No way do I entrust him with everyday catching duties. I keep Lucroy at C as long as possible and start making the transition from Braun being the face of the franchise to Lucroy. He's earned it.

 

- Let Gallardo go and put that money towards the draft and international free agency. A rotation of Lohse, Garza, Peralta, Nelson and Fiers. I wish I knew what the deal with Thornburg was but I'm assuming the worst and that he won't pitch at all next season. I think the Brewers' handling of him has been shameful and pretty much sums up their ability to develop pitching.

 

- Open competition at first base. Keep Rogers and either Morris or Clark to use as a platoon. Rogers can double up as a backup for Ramirez. We need to see if Rogers or Clark can take the reigns and grab the everyday 1B job.

 

- Acquire a solid backup SS/2B. I wish I had a name but I don't. But I'd move some combination of Pena/Roache/Cravy/Hellweg/Nick Ramirez/Rivera/etc to get one, preferably one we control move than a year. In other words to prospects in our 15-20 range. The bench was a HUGE weakness this year and needs to be addressed.

 

- Move Coulter to 1B. Get him out from behind the plate and give him plenty of time to learn the new position.

 

- Pay as much as you can to acquire as good a scouting director as you can. We need better drafts, particularly guys after the first 2 rounds. Stop drafting for the "safe" guys and start taking some chances. This last draft was a start but we need to keep it up.

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The "Youth at 1st base" you mentioned...isn't young...in fact, Matt Clark is only 6 months younger than Lucroy

 

Regardless, the point would be not to spend any money in 2015 and save it for 2016 if I trade away Gomez. If one of the "untested" 1B performs in 2015 and earns the 2016 job, great. If not, the Brewers would have to plan to spend real money on it in 2016.

 

As someone that has been privy to the books of a few sports franchises, it never ceases to amaze me at how "business dumb" the fanatics on here tend to be. The casual fanbase (including many "season seat holders"), TV money, and the revenue sharing make up the majority of the revenue the Brewers bring in. Have you thought about the message it would send to the casual fan (short attention spans by nature) if they started shipping proven talent for prospects? It would also likely prompt media outlets in this market and nationally to rail on the team because they are agenda driven and need something to talk/write about, bring out the "same old Brewers" mantra and ultimately cost them huge at the gate in the short and long run. There would be no "savings." Doug and Mark, through their own short sightedness, have put this team at the point of no return as a franchise. I'm not saying I disagree with blowing it up because I don't, but you simply have to consider the impact that would have on revenue in the long run regardless of what you "save" by moving salaries. You'd need to win the casual fans back, no small task in a dwindling sport like baseball (I don't care about the over the top, glass is half full stuff Bud puts out about attendance to pad his legacy), and I believe a team like the Brewers would really have a hard time recovering from that (see Cincinnati, Baltimore, Kansas City attendance). Mark is in a tough spot and he knows it, hence his tendency to "go for it" every chance he gets. Start playing inferior talent like Logan Schafer every day and that generation of fans you spent the better part of 10 years gaining may just check out for good as they have elsewhere. There are other entertainment options available everywhere and many of them don't require basically a 5 hour time commitment and some late, workweek nights to attend. IMO, the Brewers just don't have the cache, market size or history to pull the blow it up methodology off at the start of any season at this point.

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Tiger -I think you are confusing what everyone is saying as what they want vs what we all believe is going to happen. I am not an owner of the Brewers. I don't need to concern myself with payroll, attendance, merch sales, etc. I am a fan, I can see we have an inferior product with no high minor help coming along. I can see the influx of talent sitting in A ball. I also understand that A ball talent is no less than 2 years off. So as a fan, YES, I want it all blown up. No one is saying start Schafer as your everyday CF. But many are saying Tyrone Taylor will be starting 2016/2017.

 

Are you willing to Let Aram, Lohse, Gallardo, Parra and eventually Gomez all walk and get no return? At some point, investing for your future is the best hand on the table. Sure, will fans be put off? Sure, but Luc, Braun, and Peralta will still be there. You might suffer down attendance for 2 years. But what if 2017 brings you 90 wins? You think the fans are going to be "elsewhere" on a gorgeous summer day? I don't see it.

 

As many have said, the Brewers will draw 2 million fans with ANY team they put out there. The difference is winning can bring in up to another Million.

 

So why not, invest in your future and aim for 2017 and beyond? Setup another 10 year run of success.

 

Reality tells us Brewer fans, that scenario is unlikely. Doug will be back, he will pick up a 1B. He will "go for it" again, team may or may not make the playoffs. Then you watch a lot of positions walk after 2015 with no comp.

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Have you thought about the message it would send to the casual fan (short attention spans by nature) if they started shipping proven talent for prospects?

 

If you base your moves on how you think the casual fan base will react you are never going to have a long-term successful franchise. Never. Trying to satisfy the casual fan is what causes us to overpay for guys like Garza and Lohse instead of giving people like Nelson and Thornburg a chance. And it causes us to continually patch together team you think can compete. Let's ask the Bucks how that is working out here. The fact is if you want to reign in the casual fan you need to win consistently. That's pretty much it. The fans will come when we start to win and will stay as long as they are winning. When they start to lose or if they constantly play .500 baseball the casual fans go away. So you need to make a plan to consistently win. Can anyone here say with a straight face that the Brewers have long term plan to win consistently? Of course not. They constantly mortgage the future in an attempt to win now. I think it shows not only in the guys they've signed but also in the guys they drafted. How often did we heard about how Jungmann and Bradley would be able to help out sooner rather than later after we drafted them? How did that work out?

 

If I were GM I'd take a long look at not only the current roster but the entire system. And then I'd ask myself.....who is going to be here helping the team (or close to helping the team) in 3 years? I'd say guys like Lucroy, Peralta, Nelson and Braun are for sures. Guys like Segura, Davis, Gennett, Jeffress, Smith, and Thornburg are definite maybes that we need to hang onto to see. That leaves people like KRod, Gomez, Ramirez, Reynolds, Gallardo, Lohse, Garza, Estada, and whoever else as expendable to me. That doesn't necessarily mean we HAVE to move them. If we don't have another better options, like we don't at third base, we can certainly hold onto the guys. I just wouldn't invest in them long term. If we get a chance to move them for a good return then we do so. But stop with the overpaid patchwork of a roster.

 

Then I'd look at the minor league system. I'd make a list of every significant prospect at High A and above and label them as either Likely every day players, possible major leaguers or minor league fodder. I'd take every "likely major league player" (i.e. Coulter, Taylor, Arcia) figure out where they are best suited to play and play them there.....every day. None of this switching Arcia to 2nd base every other game and having Coulter DH 75% of the time. Then I'd look at the "possible major leaguers" (i.e Rivera, Reed, Morris). I'd identify their strongest position but do everything I can to get them to learn multiple positions. Rivera 2nd and 3rd base. Reed all three outfield spots, maybe 1st base. Morris 1B and corner outfield. That way if these guys do make it to the major leagues they'll be more versatile and will be able to cover more positions, making them more valuable. It prevents situations like Mat Gamel was in where he could never crack the lineup because the one position he knew how to play was already covered. Then I would be sure to never take a possible major league player and use him to him block or displace a likely every day player. For instance, if Rivera and Arcia are on the same team Arcia is my every day SS. Maybe I am over thinking this but it doesn't seem like we have a solid strategy for prospects either. It seems like we just kind of tell them to focus entirely on offense.

 

I don't know. It's just frustrating watching a franchise that seemingly has no long term strategy to win. I am sick of these patchwork .500 talent rosters that management thinks will keep us excited. I want to win as much as the next guy but this organization is SEVERELY lacking in high ceiling talent. That is what I would address first and foremost.

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But that is what DM is doing...we drafted high ceiling talent this year which was a change of strategy. While we wait the 3-4 years for these guys to make their way up to the roster we are going to sign guys and whatever else to field a competitive team. When this cycle of Brewers is starting to get old and/or leave, the new talent will be breaking into the majors (hopefully).

 

There's more than one way to skin a cat, and MA chooses to field a competitive team whenever possible while we wait for the Harrisons, Taylors, Medeiros's, etc to get experience. I don't see a reason to blow up the roster if we keep older guys signed to 2-3 year deals. It's the 5-6 year deals that get us into trouble.

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But that is what DM is doing...

 

This has literally been covered hundreds of times but Melvin has nothing to do with the Draft, that entire process is overseen by the Scouting Director... baseball is much different from other sports in regards to how the front offices are setup.

"You can discover more about a person in an hour of play than in a year of conversation."

- Plato

"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something."

- Plato

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If I was a 62 year old GM that has never won a championship I would have went all in and acquired the best players available at the trade deadline to try to win one championship as I don't know if I will ever have a better chance to win. If by some miracle the owner gives me one more chance I will trade anybody in the minors to get me over that hump and finally win a championship.

 

If I was a young, newly hired GM I would see if I could hit the lottery by trading Carlos Gomez and trade one of Gallardo/Garza/Lohse for a good prospect. I would pray the other two have a great year and trade them at the trade deadline. Maybe I'll be even luckier and Broxton will have an amazing year so he can be traded at the deadline.

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This has literally been covered hundreds of times but Melvin has nothing to do with the Draft, that entire process is overseen by the Scouting Director... baseball is much different from other sports in regards to how the front offices are setup.

Who hires the scouting director?

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