How do we turn this sad franchise around?

[BrewersSuperCollector]

Furcal had a no trade clause.

 

Every major league player is not available to the Brewers in the real world.

[AdvantageSchneider]

Which he waived. The cards paid very little to get him. At the time the Brewers in first place. I can't imagine Furcal would have said no to the Brewers and yes to the cards.

[MNBrew]

For all the crap Roenicke catches for having played Kotsay in CF in the 2011 NLCS -- a position he'd played many times over the years -- I feel strongly that by the same token, it's truly equally dumb for Bruce Bochy to play a so-so, not-so-agile 1B in LF in the playoffs -- none other than Travis Ishikawa -- when a far better fielder sat on the bench (Perez). The only difference is that although Bochy could've been equally burned by that move, in this case he wasn't, whereas the Brewers did pay the price for the Kotsay move.

 

For as much as many BF.net posters and Brewers fans resent Kotsay playing in CF, it's less illogical than Ishikawa in LF, a position he's hardly ever played.

 

Of course, there's probably a Giants equivalent of this board where that decision was similarly overly analyzed and just as blatantly torn apart. And I'd guess some of their posters are equally convinced that the Giants would be far, far better off with another manager instead of Bochy.

 

.... Besides my point at its face value, I'm also still just as firm in my belief that this franchise isn't as pathetic/sad as many here suggest. Most every team has plenty of flaws. Ultimately, no matter what the approach of the FO or the capabilities of the manager, there are no guarantees. Several teams should've had a better shot at getting to & winning the World Series than KC & SF. But "should've" doesn't always prove to matter: The Giants are now World Series Champs, not the Cardinals, Dodgers, or Nationals.... nor any of the AL teams whose odds were far better entering the playoffs.

[AdvantageSchneider]

I saw some commentators question the decision to play Ishikawa in LF. No doubt about that. But on the other hand, LF is the easiest OF position to play by far. CF is the hardest. Kotsay did play CF in his career, but he hadn't been a regular at that spot in a long time. He was an emergency CF. A guy who could play it if there was an injury, but who would be exposed if played there regularly. And he was exposed in the playoff game.

 

Bochy got lucky no doubt the same thing didn't happen to Ishikawa.

[monty57]

With Morse and Pagan going down with injuries, Ishikawa started playing LF at the end of the season, and played there throughout the playoffs. It's not like Bochy just decided to throw him out there for Game 7 of the World Series.

 

I'm also still just as firm in my belief that this franchise isn't as pathetic/sad as many here suggest. Most every team has plenty of flaws. Ultimately, no matter what the approach of the FO or the capabilities of the manager, there are no guarantees.

 

Since 2011, they've just gotten less and less talented every year as better players leave to be replaced by lesser players. The 2014 team wasn't more talented than 2013 or 2012, they just had their hot streak early and cold streak late whereas that was swapped in the previous two seasons, and they got lucky with the injuries to their division rivals.

 

With the advent of the 2nd Wild Card team, any team with a few good players and some luck has a shot at the playoffs. This is what the Brewers have been banking on over the past few years. If Braun can come back healthy and be the same player in his 30's as he was in his 20's, that will certainly help, but we still have a lot of holes, are going to lose a lot more talent in the near future, and any potential help on the farm is a ways away.

 

Their not in rebuild mode, and can therefore still put an MLB team on the field. The question is whether they should "go for it" again in 2015, when it doesn't seem like they have a really good chance at the playoffs, or would they be better off by trading away a few of the guys who could bring back a lot of quality prospects. If they do the former, I think they will be hurting badly when Lohse, Gallardo and Broxton (and possibly Ramirez) walk away for no return after the 2015 season. If they do the latter, they could still field an average-ish MLB roster, while our current group of low-level prospects will be supplemented with a big inflow of talent from the trades and we could be an exciting young team again in a few years. As you said, there are no guarantees, but that goes just as much for strategies looking short-term as it does for longer-term strategies.

[MNBrew]

Since 2011, they've just gotten less and less talented every year as better players leave to be replaced by lesser players. The 2014 team wasn't more talented than 2013 or 2012, they just had their hot streak early and cold streak late whereas that was swapped in the previous two seasons, and they got lucky with the injuries to their division rivals.

2 things:

 

1. The fact that the hot streak was early put them in command of the division for most of the year. That presented the obvious opportunity that they squandered so painfully. There's an advantage to that situation that's not there if you stink early, then improve enough to make a playoff spot within reach. While the net result is a similar-ish record, the opportunities presented by the different scenarios aren't the same.

 

2. To go along with your assertion, part of the getting less talented each year after 2011 is rooted in the fact that Fielder & Greinke, like Sabathia, passed on the huge money the Brewers offered them for huge-er money from other teams with much deeper pockets. Those were key losses and few teams have the depth to replace those guys with comparable talent... However, this year's was the best rotation we've had in the past 3 years, and by quite a lot, and the BP also was improved, AND the offense was pretty darn solid (witness the core of the same players over the past 3 seasons) except for the horrid team-wide slump in the 2nd half which spurred the collapse which eventually turned into most every bad thing they did or bad habit they had coming back to bite 'em. So I actually disagree with the notion that this year's team wasn't any more talented than the 2012 & 2013 editions.

[MNBrew]

I saw some commentators question the decision to play Ishikawa in LF. No doubt about that. But on the other hand, LF is the easiest OF position to play by far. CF is the hardest. Kotsay did play CF in his career, but he hadn't been a regular at that spot in a long time. He was an emergency CF. A guy who could play it if there was an injury, but who would be exposed if played there regularly. And he was exposed in the playoff game.

 

Bochy got lucky no doubt the same thing didn't happen to Ishikawa.

At least Kotsay was previously a CF, whereas Ishikawa was more or less a never-before LF until the injury deal. That Kotsay was exposed was just as much a luck of the draw thing as was Ishikawa's not being exposed.... which I think was your point.

[The stache]

In my opinion if Taylor, Coulter, and Arcia specifically continue on the track they have been on; perhaps our farm system catches up to these other teams sooner rather than later.

 

LOL, no.

[logan82]

To go along with your assertion, part of the getting less talented each year after 2011 is rooted in the fact that Fielder & Greinke, like Sabathia, passed on the huge money the Brewers offered them for huge-er money from other teams with much deeper pockets.

Sure they did but we knew that was going to happen. They sort of ignored that it was going to be an issue.

 

At least Kotsay was previously a CF, whereas Ishikawa was more or less a never-before LF until the injury deal. That Kotsay was exposed was just as much a luck of the draw thing as was Ishikawa's not being exposed.... which I think was your point.

Just because a guy was previously a CF doesn't mean he was physically capable of playing there. A guy in CF is much more likely to be exposed than a guy in LF.

[monty57]

To go along with your assertion, part of the getting less talented each year after 2011 is rooted in the fact that Fielder & Greinke, like Sabathia, passed on the huge money the Brewers offered them for huge-er money from other teams with much deeper pockets.

Sure they did but we knew that was going to happen. They sort of ignored that it was going to be an issue.

 

That's the whole "what's the plan" issue. The plan was to hold onto Fielder (knowing they'd lose him to free agency) and trade for Greinke and Marcum to go "all in" in 2011. That necessarily is going to weaken future rosters, but rather than admit that, they instead have continued to patch the MLB roster by signing second tier free agents to relatively expensive deals, seemingly more in an effort to get fans to buy tickets than to build a solid franchise.

 

I like the direction they've gone in the past couple drafts, but they still have a poor farm system, and the MLB team is too top-heavy salary-wise and is therefore over-reliant on aging vets and so-so youngsters. It's not that there's no talent... Attanasio will probably add another "name" veteran while holding onto all his trade chips, leading to an average-ish roster and a finish somewhere around .500. We'll then lose Gallardo, Lohse, Parra, Broxton, and (if he exercises his option) Ramirez all for nothing, and next year everyone will look at the roster and say "boy, what the heck are we going to do with this mess?" We'll have very few logical trade chips unless we want to completely blow things up. That's when things look to get really ugly.

 

One thing I like about baseball is that if you want to study hard enough, you can see the future a little bit. Players are under team control for six years, which is a long time in sports, and unlike any other sport, they have a minor league system that lets you see who could be on your team in future years. It's wonderful, but it also made it really easy to see this whole thing coming. The "window" strategy cycle is something like this:

 

1) Start with a rebuild where you play bad, get your payroll down and stockpile young talent

2) Add payroll when the talent hits the majors

 

{this is the point where you decide to utilize a long-term or short-term strategy}

 

3) Go all in to win during your short-term window, trading away prospects for guys at the end of their team control, holding onto players until free agency, and going over budget on short-term players. Hopefully in the 1-3 year window you can sustain this, you will win it all because you are doing nothing to bolster your future.

4) Once the window begins to shut, you'll play okay baseball as the talent gradually exits and you're stuck with the bad contracts and a poor farm system.

5) Start the rebuilding process over.

 

I'm a little different than most. I pretty much never want to give up the future for today. I realize this can be an unpopular position, and doesn't jibe with the modern American way of life, but I just realize that one certainty in life is that today will become yesterday, and tomorrow will become today. All the "tomorrow's" we stole from in order to be better a few years ago are now here, and Attansio and the Brewers' fans have to live with it.

 

I hope the Ramirez decision happens soon, as that to me is the key to the future. If he exercises his option, Attanasio is going to go all out to try to win this season. If he leaves, maybe, just maybe the team will realize it can't fill all the holes and will look a little to the future, making it a little less ugly.

[lcbj68c]

I don't understand why the team can't acquire talent without the seemingly vulgar word of "all-in" being thrown around?

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't understand why the team can't acquire talent without the seemingly vulgar word of "all-in" being thrown around?

The Aoki-Smith deal is a good example of how many would like to see the Brewers focus on acquiring talent.

[monty57]

I don't understand why the team can't acquire talent without the seemingly vulgar word of "all-in" being thrown around?

The Aoki-Smith deal is a good example of how many would like to see the Brewers focus on acquiring talent.

 

Correct. I don't like going "all in," as "all in" means trading away future for the present (term stolen from poker, where you put all your chips on the table. If you win, you're happy, if you lose you're done). My job is helping people plan their financial future, so the thought of going "all in" is like nails on a chalkboard for me.

 

There are many ways to build a franchise, but with the current pay structure (prospect, pre-arby, arby, free agent) and the payroll disparity between the big markets and small markets, teams like the Brewers are more dependent on good players in their pre-arby years.

 

When the team trades away prospects for short-term MLB talent, and rarely ever trades away short-term MLB talent for prospects, it makes it very difficult to maintain a stream of quality pre-arby players on the roster, without which we're not going to be very good. If we build a strong farm, we could make more moves like the Aoki deal, as we would have solid minor leaguers ready to step in, so the short-term vet can be traded, adding more talent to the pool.

 

This offseason, we have the opportunity to trade away one of Gallardo or Lohse, inserting Nelson into the rotation and bringing back a couple of good, young players. Instead, we will probably stick Nelson in the bullpen and then lose both Gallardo and Lohse for nothing after the season. Attanasio is unwilling to take the risk of losing some in 2015 by having Nelson in the rotation instead of Gallardo or Lohse, but seems willing to risk that our rotation could be pretty bad in 2016 when Gallardo and Lohse are gone and Nelson (who we don't trust now) will be heavily relied upon.

 

The thought process seems to be guided by a mix of fear that ticket sales will plummet, and hope that we can stretch this thing out just a little longer before the wheels fall off.

[lcbj68c]

Correct. I don't like going "all in," as "all in" means trading away future for the present (term stolen from poker, where you put all your chips on the table. If you win, you're happy, if you lose you're done). My job is helping people plan their financial future, so the thought of going "all in" is like nails on a chalkboard for me.

That is my definition of going all-in as well. And in that light, the Brewers have yet to go "all-in" in the past 15 years. They have never come out of a season completely lost for failing to make the playoffs.

 

I also assert that trading away Lohse and Gallardo doesn't mean the Brewers are giving up on a season. Saying they have an opportunity to trade away Gallardo and Lohse is simply a belief and not really fact. We don't know if anybody is willing to take on those players and we also don't know that the return would be a few great prospects. The "failure" of the Brewers to trade short-term assets in the past isn't an "all-in" approach. I think the Brewers are following a great model. They are mixing shor-term assets with long term assets and are remaining competitive just about every season for the past 7 years. I haven't come away at the end of any season and thought, "well, we got to rebuild now".

 

I also don't think Mark A. is as involved in player equity as some posters do. I love the Brewers approach over the past 7 years. The Brewers will run into problems when drafts don't work out. Hunter Morris didn't pan out to replace Prince and it hurt badly. As I've said before, I'm not a fan of Huntsville and Brevard County. I want MLB talent on the Milwaukee team. I don't want to pull what Houston did the past 2-3 seasons. Draft well, trade some of them for short term talent and grow the others you keep and the team should be able to remain competitive each and every year.

[paul253]

I think the Brewers should look at 2017 as the season to really make the turn around. Spend the next two seasons acquiring players who will help win a championship that year and every year after. Winning a World Series should be their only goal. We are past the "get to .500" and "make the playoffs" goals. That's not good enough anymore. So if I were them I'd make every move based on getting players that will be around in and after 2017. So that means I would:

 

1) Trade Gomez for the highest rated pitching prospect I can find. I'd shoot for pitchers that pitched at High A or higher this past year or for anyone who has the ability to move through the system quickly.

2) Extend Lucroy. I think he is the new franchise player and is just coming into his prime.

3) Not sign any free agents for more than 2 years this offseason. Nobody they are likely to sign is a long term solution. Don't drag your future down with bad contracts.

4) Continue to draft the high risk high reward players. I like what they did in this past draft. They need to keep it up.

5) Not trade any of our top prospects. Guys like Coulter, Arcia, Taylor, Williams, Medeiros and Harrison are the future of the franchise. Don't even entertain offers for them.

6) Allow guys like Nelson and Thornburg (if healthy) to sink or swim in the rotation. We need to see what we have in them. Having them rot in the bullpen while 36 year old Kyle Lohse and clearly past his prime Gallardo go out there every give days does them no good.

 

Ideally I'd like them to move Lohse or Gallardo but I really don't expect much return for either. Maybe move one of them for a low level, high ceiling prospect that a win-now team might be willing to give up.

 

I think the best thing the Brewers can do is accept the reality that they are not a championship caliber team right now and they are not 1 or 2 players away from being there. They aren't a lost cause either so they don't have to move all their best players but they need to realize that Milwaukee isn't going to get excited about a .500 team that finishes 5-6 games out of the playoffs like they may have gotten excited about 8 years ago.

[lcbj68c]

"I think the best thing the Brewers can do is accept the reality that they are not a championship caliber team right now and they are not 1 or 2 players away from being there. They aren't a lost cause either so they don't have to move all their best players but they need to realize that Milwaukee isn't going to get excited about a .500 team that finishes 5-6 games out of the playoffs like they may have gotten excited about 8 years ago." ~paul253

 

I think they clearly have a handle on those beliefs. I don't think they sign 1-2 free agents every year at the belief that they are then the favorites to win a World Championship or field a championship caliber team. I think they do their best every year to acquire talent and win as many games as possible. 2015 doesn't need to suffer to make 2017 great.

[BrewBalls]

I think the Brewers should look at 2017 as the season to really make the turn around. Spend the next two seasons acquiring players who will help win a championship that year and every year after. Winning a World Series should be their only goal. We are past the "get to .500" and "make the playoffs" goals. That's not good enough anymore. So if I were them I'd make every move based on getting players that will be around in and after 2017. So that means I would:

 

1) Trade Gomez for the highest rated pitching prospect I can find. I'd shoot for pitchers that pitched at High A or higher this past year or for anyone who has the ability to move through the system quickly.

2) Extend Lucroy. I think he is the new franchise player and is just coming into his prime.

3) Not sign any free agents for more than 2 years this offseason. Nobody they are likely to sign is a long term solution. Don't drag your future down with bad contracts.

4) Continue to draft the high risk high reward players. I like what they did in this past draft. They need to keep it up.

5) Not trade any of our top prospects. Guys like Coulter, Arcia, Taylor, Williams, Medeiros and Harrison are the future of the franchise. Don't even entertain offers for them.

6) Allow guys like Nelson and Thornburg (if healthy) to sink or swim in the rotation. We need to see what we have in them. Having them rot in the bullpen while 36 year old Kyle Lohse and clearly past his prime Gallardo go out there every give days does them no good.

 

Ideally I'd like them to move Lohse or Gallardo but I really don't expect much return for either. Maybe move one of them for a low level, high ceiling prospect that a win-now team might be willing to give up.

 

I think the best thing the Brewers can do is accept the reality that they are not a championship caliber team right now and they are not 1 or 2 players away from being there. They aren't a lost cause either so they don't have to move all their best players but they need to realize that Milwaukee isn't going to get excited about a .500 team that finishes 5-6 games out of the playoffs like they may have gotten excited about 8 years ago.

GoGo can fetch you far more than one high ceiling prospect. You could get a MLB ready starter like Taijuan Walker along with another top 100 prospect and a mid level pitcher (potential mid to back of the rotation starter). Gomez is considered a borderline elite player based on his production at a premium position, GG defense and team friendly contract (2yrs/$17M).

 

And I agree with signing Lucroy to an extension soon. Maybe he will give the Brewers a discount for extending him 3 years prior to him hitting free agency. One can only hope.

[paul253]

I think they clearly have a handle on those beliefs. I don't think they sign 1-2 free agents every year at the belief that they are then the favorites to win a World Championship or field a championship caliber team.

 

I'm not so sure Mark A. has a realistic view of where the franchise is right now. I think the moves they've made, particularly signing Garza, Lohse and Ramirez, were made with the belief that they would get them into the playoffs.

 

I think they do their best every year to acquire talent and win as many games as possible. 2015 doesn't need to suffer to make 2017 great.

 

That's what my problem is. Why spend all this money to go from a 75 win team to a 80 win team? Do they really think Brewer fans are going to be excited about that? If anything it's more frustrating because they give off this impression that they are signing guys so they can compete and yet they still finish in 3rd or 4th place. I have no issue with the Lind deal because Estrada is worthless. But if they now sign a guy to play the right hand side of the platoon vs just letting Rogers play I'll be upset. It would be like spending money just for the sake of spending money.

GoGo can fetch you far more than one high ceiling prospect. You could get a MLB ready starter like Taijuan Walker along with another top 100 prospect and a mid level pitcher (potential mid to back of the rotation starter).

 

I wonder if Seattle would be interested in Gomez and Gallardo for Walker and Paxton? We may have to throw some money in but a rotation of Walker, Paxton, Nelson, Peralta and Lohse would look pretty good for the future.

[BrewBalls]

 

I wonder if Seattle would be interested in Gomez and Gallardo for Walker and Paxton? We may have to throw some money in but a rotation of Walker, Paxton, Nelson, Peralta and Lohse would look pretty good for the future.

 

Replace Lohse with Fiers and I'm in. Although I'm not sure Seattle would be willing to trade both pitchers. Maybe Walker, Peterson and Hultzen would get it done. Walker, Peralta, Garza, Nelson and Fiers would still be pretty solid.

[clancyphile]

At this point, extending Gomez and Lucroy is priority one.

 

Maybe put Lucroy at first base against lefties, as a platoon partner with Lind.

[paul253]

At this point, extending Gomez and Lucroy is priority one.

 

I disagree with extending Gomez. He'll be 31 the first season after his current contract runs out. Not old but starting to get past his prime. I saw someone this year that, while extremely talented, doesn't appear to be able to control his excitement. He makes stupid mistakes because he doesn't think. He doesn't alter his game based on the situation which drives me nuts. I've never ever seen someone swing out of his helmet and/or fall down swinging as often as he does. You like someone who puts forth the effort but at some point you just want to go up to him and say "hey Carlos chill out a bit".

 

Most importantly though. For the first time since he's been GM, Melvin could actually trade someone whose value is at it's peak. It'll hurt to lose Gomez no doubt. But we're not winning with him and he could bring back something we still lack.....cheap, controllable quality arms.

[JohnBriggs12]

The direction of this team comes from one man. That guy is Mark Attanasio. Attanasio is a believer in constructing the most competitive team possible on a year to year basis. When Melvin is gone in a year or two, whoever replaces him will have that same directive. This team survives with gate receipts as a huge portion of it's revenue. There's no way MA will authorize a tear down that would result in an extended period of last place finishes that will result in empty seats in Miller Park. If it makes sense to deal Gomez at some point to enhance the teams chances in the relative short term, MA would do it. But he wouldn't authorize dealing him for low level prospects.

[3and2Fastball]

Doug Melvin's comments on the Bill Michaels radio show: "in many ways our July & August acquisitions of Parra & Broxton are a big part of adding to our team for next year."

 

I understand what he's getting at, but part of me says "huh? Say what?!"

 

Sure sounds like Lind, Parra, & Broxton are the big acquisitions and nothing else of significance is going to happen... hopefully he's bluffing

[monty57]

The direction of this team comes from one man. That guy is Mark Attanasio.

 

Agree completely.

 

There's no way MA will authorize a tear down that would result in an extended period of last place finishes that will result in empty seats in Miller Park.

 

There's one way, and that is when the gradual decline in talent at the MLB level finally reaches a point that patching the team together from year-to-year no longer excites the fan base. Losing Gallardo, Lohse, Parra, Broxton and Ramirez next offseason could be that point. A lot can happen between now and then, but unless we have a mid-season sell-off, we will likely have a big uphill battle facing us next offseason.

 

If this doesn't convince him, then I guess I'll just say that it's not going to take a "tear down" to result in an extended period of last place finishes. With the rest of the division getting better, the Brewers are likely to fight for the bottom of the division for the foreseeable future. A "tear down" might result in an eventual "build up," while rearranging the deck chairs on the sinking ship will just cement the team to the bottom. The last three years, since their "all in" year of 2011 have resulted in 3rd place, 4th place, 3rd place, and they've really been "helped" by the Cubs being in full blown rebuild mode. With the Cubs and Pirates getting better and no other team (other than potentially the Brewers) stepping into the "whipping boy" role, be prepared for a lot of 4th/5th place finishes until the team eventually realizes that when you "go for it" every year for an extended period, always sacrificing tomorrow for today, you will eventually have to go into a full rebuild.

 

At least Attanasio can rest easy knowing that as the Cubs get better, Cub fans will once again flock to Milwaukee to fill up Miler Park for a few series each season, bringing the team a little extra revenue.

[monty57]

Sure sounds like Lind, Parra, & Broxton are the big acquisitions and nothing else of significance is going to happen... hopefully he's bluffing

 

The comment to me shows that Parra is not going to be let go to save $6MM or so. They have a limited payroll, and they have to be getting close to that limit. Since I think this is the second, weaker "all in" (2011 being the first) before the window finally slams shut, I think Attanasio will probably allow a little more money to pick up a role player (bench or bullpen), but nothing major.