How do we turn this sad franchise around?

[jerichoholicninja]

So what exactly has been the Giants strategy? They've been to 3 of the last 5 World Series and I don't see a whole lot of well thought out plan with their roster building. They've developed a few great players in Posey, Sandoval, and Bumgarner and some good ones with Belt, Crawford, and maybe Panik. They spend money, but have blown a lot of it - $20MM for Cain, $17MM for Lincecum, $6+MM for Scutaro. They traded away prospects for Pence, Peavy, and Beltran. I would say a lot of their success has to do with playing in a very poor NL West where 3 of the 5 teams have been borderline irrelevant for the past few years but they've been winning in the playoffs. How are they doing it?

[craigharmann]

How are they doing it?

 

Magic.

[IndyCrew]

SF has built a team around very good pitching in a very pitcher friendly park. This is one of the reasons I don't fault the Brewers for stressing power when they play at Miller Park.

[reillymcshane]

So what exactly has been the Giants strategy? They've been to 3 of the last 5 World Series and I don't see a whole lot of well thought out plan with their roster building. They've developed a few great players in Posey, Sandoval, and Bumgarner and some good ones with Belt, Crawford, and maybe Panik. They spend money, but have blown a lot of it - $20MM for Cain, $17MM for Lincecum, $6+MM for Scutaro. They traded away prospects for Pence, Peavy, and Beltran. I would say a lot of their success has to do with playing in a very poor NL West where 3 of the 5 teams have been borderline irrelevant for the past few years but they've been winning in the playoffs. How are they doing it?

You know, SF isn't that much different than Milwaukee. They just do everything a little bit better:

 

Draft picks or Amatuer signings

SF - Posey, Belt, Panik, Crawford, Sandoval, Cain, Lincecum, Bumgarner, Romo

Milwaukee: Braun, Davis, Scooter, Lucroy, Peralta, Thornburg, Nelson, Wooten

 

Cheap FA (or minor league FA)

SF: Blanco, Vogelsong, Machi, Gutierrez, Lopez, Petit, Casilla

Milwaukee: Overbay, Reynolds, Maldonado, Jeffress, Henderson, Kintzler, Duke

Established FA signings

SF: Hudson, Morse, Affeldt

Milwaukee: Lohse, Garza, Ramirez, K-Rod

 

Trades

Milwaukee: Smith, Gomez, Broxton

SF: Pagan, Pence, Peavy

 

I'm sure I missed some guys. I tried to focus on major players. But if you look at it, SF does things just a little better. They draft a bit better, the low cost FAs SF have contributed a little bit more, they haven't spent as much of free agents but have gotten solid production, and so forth.

 

SF beat us by six games - not huge - but not insignificant. I think that looking at the rosters you see a little more depth and consistency amongst position players. And there are no black holes (unlike Milwaukee, which SS and 1B).

 

While Milwaukee's starters were similar to SF (3.69 ERA compared to a 3.74 for SF), I also think SF managed their bullpen better. They produced a 3.01 ERA out of the pen, compared to 3.62 in Milwaukee.

 

It all made SF just a little bit better in most areas. That translated into 6 more wins. Enough for the playoffs.

 

And the final piece is luck and timing. The nature of a 5 or 7 game series means anyone can win the series. SF is playing well in the playoffs. If they had lost in the wildcard playoff, we wouldn't having this discussion. But they got hot/lucky at the right time.

[RightFieldCoder]

The Giants also had an Opening Day day salary $50M more than the Brewers. That is a good way to cover up mistakes. If the Brewers had half that cash for a 1B we could have probably made up that 6 game difference.

[TURBO]

Correct me if I am wrong, but would that mean we had to have a 1B with a 6 WAR for that to be the case?

[LouisEly]

The Giants, whether on purpose or not, were smart enough to draft/sign a good LH/RH balance in their lineup. Sandoval, Belt, Crawford, Panik, Pagan... helps keep you from getting stymied by tough RHP.

[The stache]

The Giants also didn't have their second best pitcher for most of the season. Matt Cain, who was 53-35 between 2009-212 with a 2.93 ERA and 7.3 K/9 IP. They'd have been better with him.

 

We can play the "well, the Brewers with $50 million more game would have made up the difference in record" game until we're blue in the face. The Giants are one win from their third World Series title in five years, while we're watching the playoffs. The Giants have done a better job across the board. You could give Doug Melvin an extra $100 million over those 5 years, and I guarantee you it wouldn't have made a difference. We still wouldn't have a single World Series win.

[fondybrewfan]

The Giants also didn't have their second best pitcher for most of the season. Matt Cain, who was 53-35 between 2009-212 with a 2.93 ERA and 7.3 K/9 IP. They'd have been better with him.

 

We can play the "well, the Brewers with $50 million more game would have made up the difference in record" game until we're blue in the face. The Giants are one win from their third World Series title in five years, while we're watching the playoffs. The Giants have done a better job across the board. You could give Doug Melvin an extra $100 million over those 5 years, and I guarantee you it wouldn't have made a difference. We still wouldn't have a single World Series win.

 

I think you are really stretching things there. You don't think perhaps that one extra player in 2011 would have put us over the top? We were awfully close as it was and if we had an extra bullpen arm or an OF other than Kotsay it could have made the difference? I would like to think if DM was dealing with the Giants payroll he would have found a way to improve that team in a couple areas.

 

Granted extra money in the budget doesn't mean you always make wise decisions but at least you have some more flexibility and you can take more chances.

[monty57]

I think the question is why they continue to be good and reach/win WS, not just why did they beat us out this year.

 

Just off the top of my head, they have "grown" Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Posey and Sandoval on their farm. Having a core of dominant pitching with a couple of good hitters has been their calling card. Most free agents and trades have been for complementary pieces to supplement their home-grown core. The cash advantage they have over the Brewers has went to these veteran complementary pieces, and to extend their homegrown talent.

 

However, while they may win the title this year, they weren't a dominant team, and it's likely their reign is coming to an end. They'll probably lose Sandoval, Morse, Peavy, Romo, and Vogelsong, and are still obligated to $127.278MM to those they still control, not including arby raises to guys like Belt, Arias, Blanco, Petit and Crawford. This year's payroll was $149MM. Their farm is probably worse even than the Brewers'. Bleacher Reports did a farm ranking after the trade deadline this year, and had the Giants at #27, one spot behind the Brewers. They will still have a pretty good roster, headlined by some of the best players in baseball, so I don't expect them to fall off a cliff, but they're probably going to start a period of decline.

 

So, as someone else said, they did things similarly to the Brewers' strategy, they were just better at it, and had extra money (the strategy really only plays well for bigger money teams). Their farm produced both dominant pitching and dominant hitting. While they were able to extend their best players, most of our best players walked and most of our extensions were to second-tier guys. Their trade for Pence was a long-term fix, whereas our trades are short-term patches. Their free agent pick-ups are for good players to complement their "core," while our free agent pick-ups are expected to be our "core." When they call up a so-so prospect like Crawford, it's nice if they do well, but not necessary. When we call up a so-so prospect like Davis or Gennett, we base our hopes on them playing above expectations

 

As expected, there is always some "good luck," like Morse having a good season, and some "bad luck," like Lincecum falling from graces after being the best pitcher in baseball for a few years, but the bottom line is that the Giants have a solid MLB baseball team that played about to expectations this year. They will lose a lot of talent when the World Series is over, and will have a hard time replacing it, but should still have a competitive team, albeit aging and expensive, so they'll have to hope to tread water (at a high water-level mark) while some of the big contracts come off the books and the farm rebuilds. Meanwhile, the Brewers played well over expectations, so they could fall into the "fluke" category. Comparing them to a team that made better use of the same team-building strategy hurts. San Francisco shows the strategy can be successful (at least over a relatively short-term), but it sure helps to have a better group drafting and developing talent, a much bigger payroll to make up for mistake signings at the major-league level, and a longer-term look at everything.

[adambr2]

The Giants also didn't have their second best pitcher for most of the season. Matt Cain, who was 53-35 between 2009-212 with a 2.93 ERA and 7.3 K/9 IP. They'd have been better with him.

 

We can play the "well, the Brewers with $50 million more game would have made up the difference in record" game until we're blue in the face. The Giants are one win from their third World Series title in five years, while we're watching the playoffs. The Giants have done a better job across the board. You could give Doug Melvin an extra $100 million over those 5 years, and I guarantee you it wouldn't have made a difference. We still wouldn't have a single World Series win.

 

I think you are really stretching things there. You don't think perhaps that one extra player in 2011 would have put us over the top? We were awfully close as it was and if we had an extra bullpen arm or an OF other than Kotsay it could have made the difference? I would like to think if DM was dealing with the Giants payroll he would have found a way to improve that team in a couple areas.

 

Granted extra money in the budget doesn't mean you always make wise decisions but at least you have some more flexibility and you can take more chances.

 

We did have an extra OF other than Kotsay in the NLCS. Two of them, actually. Roenicke just had them both on the bench while the rangeless Mark Kotsay let a ball drop in front of him in CF and led to a 4 run inning.

[monty57]

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/30693879-419/jake-peavy-jon-lester-have-eye-on-cubs-as-package-deal.html#.VE_r5VN0yUk

 

Jake Peavy says he's very close friends with Jon Lester, and the two of them would like to go to the Cubs to play with Maddon, who seems likely to end up in Chicago. It looks like the Cubs think the time is now to start adding to their talented young core and competing on the MLB level. If they land Lester and Peavy (and probably others) they will be a pretty decent team.

 

I bring that up in this thread because the Brewers could very easily end up at the bottom of the division this year, while sporting the least talented farm system in the division. Even though Attanasio talks about "two paths," I would be shocked if they don't go all in this year in what very well could be their last hurrah before losing Gallardo and Lohse and starting a massive rebuild. I just hope they don't sign any free agent contracts this offseason that will be hard to unload.

[TooLiveBrew]

The Cubs have the resources to sign Lester this offseason & probably also Price the next offseason. Think about that for a second.

[paul253]

The Cubs have the resources to sign Lester this offseason & probably also Price the next offseason. Think about that for a second.

 

Lester? Price? Please. What are the Cubs going to do when we sign Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris to three year deals?

[fondybrewfan]

While the Cubs will almost certainly be getting better in the near future; you can bet that another team or two in the central will drop off as well. I could come up with reasons that each of the Cardinals, Reds, Pirates, and Brewers could all fall off going forward. However knowing the kind of talent these teams have in the minors perhaps it does make sense to go for it once last time in 2015; because if you don't we might be waiting another long frickin time before they get another chance.

[trwi7]

I could come up with reasons that each of the Cardinals, Reds, Pirates, and Brewers could all fall off going forward.

 

I would love to hear them. Really the only teams that I think are on a downward slide in the Central are the Reds and us.

[DocLuna7]

I think it's a bit weird that Peavy is talking about going to a different team the night that he was starting for the Giants in the WS.

[TURBO]

I think it's a bit weird that Peavy is talking about going to a different team the night that he was starting for the Giants in the WS.

 

Maybe if he wasn't dreaming of the cubs and playing with his pal Lester, he would have had his head in the game last night and pitched better... He stunk the joint up! It's the World Series, how on earth can someone be thinking of next year with everything riding on the here and now? Amazing...

[fondybrewfan]

I could come up with reasons that each of the Cardinals, Reds, Pirates, and Brewers could all fall off going forward.

 

I would love to hear them. Really the only teams that I think are on a downward slide in the Central are the Reds and us.

 

Brewers - Fairly obvious what could lead to downfall. Players getting older and next good crop of youngsters is probably a couple years away

Reds - If Votto, Bruce, Phillips don't rebound or continue to decline they are in trouble

Pirates - Maybe I am reaching here but how much longer can they keep the group together. Liriano & Martin were great but are FA; can they afford to keep everyone?

Cards - Molina and Wainright aren't getting any younger; offense was pretty questionable this year and their young pitching is perhaps not as good as we all thought (That might be stretching it a bit; but they are relying pretty heavily on those young guys)

 

I am not saying all of those are likely but I could see it happening. If the Pirates lose both Martin and Liriano this offseason that is definitely weakening the team. Cards will probably be good no matter what simply because that is what they do. Reds might be teetering even more so than the Brewers but they do have a good farm system.

 

In my opinion if Taylor, Coulter, and Arcia specifically continue on the track they have been on; perhaps our farm system catches up to these other teams sooner rather than later. That is not even considering the excitement we should all have for the 2014 class.

[logan82]

I thought the Cardinals had quite a few pitchers injured this year.

[reillymcshane]

I think it's a bit weird that Peavy is talking about going to a different team the night that he was starting for the Giants in the WS.

I thought the same thing when I read that. You have one of the biggest (if not the biggest) game of your life right in front of you - and talk about what OTHER team you're going to be playing for next year. Really poor decision. Very strange.

[monty57]

Pirates - Maybe I am reaching here but how much longer can they keep the group together. Liriano & Martin were great but are FA; can they afford to keep everyone?

 

It's going to be fun to see how the Pirates work things. They're in a similar situation to where the Brewers were around 2008. In the few times I've listened to their GM (Huntington), he seems to want to follow the path I wish the Brewers had followed. I doubt they'll ever go "all in," but rather wants to continue to grow their talent on the farm. There's risk to any strategy, but I think their goal is to become the Tampa Bay Rays of the NL Central.

 

Now we also have the perennial doormat Cubs who look like they're trying to become the Boston Red Sox of the NL Central, and of course we still have the second most successful franchise in the history of baseball St Louis Cardinals to contend with.

 

The Reds still have talent and have a decent farm, but they tied themselves to some really big contracts that will probably hamper them at some point (the Phillies of the NL Central??), so I see the Reds and Brewers as the teams that will have a hard time competing going forward. This is why I've been hoping for the past few years that the Brewers would take a step back at the MLB level (where they looked to have around .500 talent on the roster) so they would be better able to compete going forward. Now I'm not too upbeat about the near-term future of the franchise.

 

Had Attanasio/Melvin addressed this a few years ago, we'd probably look pretty good by now, but they went the opposite route. They're so far in the hole at this point, a massive rebuild is becoming more a question of "when" than "if." If we decide this offseason to trade away at least one of Lohse and Gallardo, along with Gomez, we could immediately get a lot of high-end young talent into the system. We could stick Parra in CF and let Nelson and Fiers pitch in the rotation. We probably wouldn't make the playoffs, which we probably won't anyhow, but at least we'd have MLB players at every position, so we wouldn't be horrible. The guys we'd get in trade would complement the guys we have in the low minors to start to get more talent on the MLB field over the next few seasons.

 

If we decide to "go for it" one more year, we will lose Gallardo, Lohse and Broxton for nothing after the season, and Gomez will only have one year left on his team-friendly deal, so he probably wouldn't get as much back in trade. This is probably what will happen, but it will really set back the franchise even further. Since we probably won't make the playoffs, I'd rather they make some moves for the future this offseason. I just don't see it happening.

[BrewBalls]

I mentioned the possibility of trading Gomez to the Mariners for Walker, Peterson and Hultzen and someone else mentioned trading Gallardo to Boston for Cecchini. These two moves could provide the Brewers with enough talent to rebuild within 1-2 years instead of having to completely overhaul the team. Now you can sign LaRoche (2yrs/$24M) which keeps ticket sales high, Bonifacio (3yrs/$16M) to platoon with Gennett and Parra, resign Duke (3yrs/$12M) to solidify our bullpen depth. These signings paired with the aforementioned trades will infuse both our current roster and farm system with some solid high ceiling players and proven veterans. This should expedite the rebuild process while allowing the Brewers brass to continue fielding a competitive team to keep ticket sales up.

 

Next years roster would be:

Rotation: Lohse, Garza, Walker, Peralta and Fiers

Bullpen: Broxton, Smith, Thornburg, Nelson, Duke, Henderson, Kintzler/Pena

Lineup: Gennett, Braun, Lucroy, LaRoche, Davis, Cecchini, Parra. Segura

Bench: Maldonado, Rogers, H. Gomez, Bonifacio, Herrera/Free Agent

 

This roster provides solid defense, good pitching from both the rotation and bullpen and a balanced lineup and is still way under budget (roughly $86-$88M).

 

Then in 2017 our lineup could be:

Rotation: Walker, Peralta, Garza, Hultzen, Fiers

Bullpen: Thornburg, Smith, Jeffress, Duke, Nelson, Jungmann, Wagner/Goforth/Pena

Lineup: Taylor, Gennett, Lucroy, Braun, Peterson, Coulter, Cecchini, Arcia

Bench: Maldonado, Rogers, Segura, Bonifacio, Davis

 

This payroll depending on arbitration raises could come in between $90-96M and gives us a solid young core to compliment our veterans.

[clancyphile]

Maybe the Brewers need to scout harder in Japan... and try to make trades.

 

Take a look at T-Okada from the Orix Buffaloes:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=okada-001tak

 

He looks like a decent OF/1B option... and the cost might not be so high. The Brewers need to figure out what it would take to get some younger players from Japan or elsewhere.

 

Or how about this pitcher, Takahiro Matsuba?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/japan/player.cgi?id=matsub000tak

 

Lefty, 23 years old, 2.93 ERA in AAAA... worth trying to pick up.

[AdvantageSchneider]

The Giants also didn't have their second best pitcher for most of the season. Matt Cain, who was 53-35 between 2009-212 with a 2.93 ERA and 7.3 K/9 IP. They'd have been better with him.

 

We can play the "well, the Brewers with $50 million more game would have made up the difference in record" game until we're blue in the face. The Giants are one win from their third World Series title in five years, while we're watching the playoffs. The Giants have done a better job across the board. You could give Doug Melvin an extra $100 million over those 5 years, and I guarantee you it wouldn't have made a difference. We still wouldn't have a single World Series win.

 

I think you are really stretching things there. You don't think perhaps that one extra player in 2011 would have put us over the top? We were awfully close as it was and if we had an extra bullpen arm or an OF other than Kotsay it could have made the difference? I would like to think if DM was dealing with the Giants payroll he would have found a way to improve that team in a couple areas.

 

Granted extra money in the budget doesn't mean you always make wise decisions but at least you have some more flexibility and you can take more chances.

 

That year didn't the Cards pick up Furcal who was great for them down the stretch and we didn't try and pick him on waivers b/c of money? Instead we were stuck with Yuni B. That alone might have keep the cards out of the WS and gotten us into it.