How do we turn this sad franchise around?

[reillymcshane]

Braun's situation is different in a very important way- PEDs. I understand the contract is guaranteed, but that was based on a PED-free Braun. They could explore going down the road of breach of contract. Would Braun really want his name dragged through the mud all over again? Or just agree to lowering his salary by 20% or so, as an example.

To my knowledge, no player has ever had their contract terminated or reduced due to PEDs. The players' union would fight any attempt to terminate the contract to the bitter end. This conversation comes up when a player tests positive. Every time the answer is the same - the team is stuck with the contract. The player has been punished for breaking the rules. He lost his pay during that time. But that doesn't make the contract binding. This is how it's been collectively bargained.

 

And even if Braun just agreed to lower his contract value, the union would not allow it. It happened with A-Rod about 10 years ago. He agreed to take less to go to Boston, but the union would not allow the trade to happen.

 

To get Braun's salary lowered you would have to set a new precedent, which would be very hard and potentially take years to accomplish. The argument, I would imagine, would be centered around Milwaukee being defrauded in same way. Again, a lot to hope for.

 

Finally, I don't think Braun really would have anything to lose. Having his name dragged through the mud? It's already there, been dragged through and stomped on.

 

Your only real option would be to extend Braun's contract a few more years, moving monies back into those latter years. Let's say you lower his salary in 2016 from $19 million to $15 million. You then extend his contract by a year (2021), giving him the $4 million at that time, plus league minimum. Would Braun be any good in 2021? Maybe. Maybe not. But you'd have him under contract for $5 million at the most. Maybe that wouldn't be a big deal, but then again, maybe you'd want the $5 million for other things in 2022 other than a 38 year old outfielder.

[adambr2]

Braun's situation is different in a very important way- PEDs. I understand the contract is guaranteed, but that was based on a PED-free Braun. They could explore going down the road of breach of contract. Would Braun really want his name dragged through the mud all over again? Or just agree to lowering his salary by 20% or so, as an example.

 

I'm sure the CBA probably covers this. Neither the Brewers, nor Ryan Braun, can just agree to reduce his salary by an arbitrary 20% as an agreement to avoid a breach of contract lawsuit. It would set a huge precedent that the MLBPA would be all over.

[Invader3K]

I'm sure the CBA probably covers this. Neither the Brewers, nor Ryan Braun, can just agree to reduce his salary by an arbitrary 20% as an agreement to avoid a breach of contract lawsuit. It would set a huge precedent that the MLBPA would be all over.

 

The most realistic scenario would be for the Brewers to get Braun to agree to defer a larger portion of his salary over a longer length of time. That's probably the only way to reduce the near term financial liability of his contract.

 

Hopefully he gets the thumb issue sorted out and returns to being close to the player he was the past couple years.

[sveumrules]

Braun's situation is different in a very important way- PEDs. I understand the contract is guaranteed, but that was based on a PED-free Braun. They could explore going down the road of breach of contract. Would Braun really want his name dragged through the mud all over again? Or just agree to lowering his salary by 20% or so, as an example.

2012 was a PED-free Braun.

 

Minor quibble. Braun did not fail any tests in 2012, that does not necessarily mean he was PED free.

[The stache]

Braun's situation is different in a very important way- PEDs. I understand the contract is guaranteed, but that was based on a PED-free Braun. They could explore going down the road of breach of contract. Would Braun really want his name dragged through the mud all over again? Or just agree to lowering his salary by 20% or so, as an example.

2012 was a PED-free Braun.

 

Minor quibble. Braun did not fail any tests in 2012, that does not necessarily mean he was PED free.

 

Yes, I'm sure that after winning an overturn of his suspension in 2011, Braun thought, "oh good, now I can start taking PEDs again, and get back to baseball."

[logan82]

Because testing catches everyone?

[The stache]

Because testing catches everyone?

 

No, but you can bet they were testing Braun more often, and looking for every marker of possible steroid use.

[brewcrewdue80]

Well don't know if this was mentioned somewhere else but the Brewers are already saying they have picked up Gallardo's 2015 13mil. option.

 

I certainly hope that with Lohse, Garza, Fiers, Peralta, Nelson and now Gallardo that 1 of Lohse/Gallardo are traded this offseason. Maybe turning the team around? Can we pry Scott Van Slyke from LA Dodgers? to play 1b?

[coolcool]

Because testing catches everyone?

 

You cheat on your taxes... I mean, they don't audit everyone!

[lcbj68c]

Melvin gets a vote of confidence and is safe for 2015, per Todd Rosiak.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/09/nl-notes-brewers-marlins.html

[logan82]

Because testing catches everyone?

 

No, but you can bet they were testing Braun more often, and looking for every marker of possible steroid use.

Players are tested all the time. The big takeaway from 2012 for me is they are lucky when they actually catch a player from the testing. How many players were suspended without ever failings a test. That is one clinic.

[WV Brew]

I looked up Braun's stats after at least 1 day of rest: .271/.352/.532 which are still pretty good stats although not up to his standards. (Someone may want to check my work). Total for all PA's: .268/.325/.455. This kind of confirms my feeling that Braun should have been given more rest during the season. He seemed to hit better with rest. This also has the effect of keeping bench players up to playing speed so that they are ready when needed.

 

Roenicke also had a tendency to overwork pitchers (14 appearances by Thornburg in April?). Smith was also overworked early in the season. You have to remember the length of the season. I'm not really in favor of firing Roenicke but I sincerely hope he does some introspection over the winter especially about these work issues.

[645]

It doesn't take much.

 

Pitching is there. The Brewers pitching is good enough right now the win the world series. All they need is the hitting. Give them a few hitters that can hit .270 and they are there.

[monty57]

I looked up Braun's stats after at least 1 day of rest: .271/.352/.532 which are still pretty good stats although not up to his standards. (Someone may want to check my work). Total for all PA's: .268/.325/.455. This kind of confirms my feeling that Braun should have been given more rest during the season. He seemed to hit better with rest. This also has the effect of keeping bench players up to playing speed so that they are ready when needed.

 

Roenicke also had a tendency to overwork pitchers (14 appearances by Thornburg in April?). Smith was also overworked early in the season. You have to remember the length of the season. I'm not really in favor of firing Roenicke but I sincerely hope he does some introspection over the winter especially about these work issues.

 

Agree. I think they should have rested Ramirez more as well. I understand the desire to always play your best players, but Braun was hurt, Ramirez is old, and overusing relievers will lead to either fatigue or injury.

[reillymcshane]

It doesn't take much.

 

Pitching is there. The Brewers pitching is good enough right now the win the world series. All they need is the hitting. Give them a few hitters that can hit .270 and they are there.

I think our pitching is very average. This year, four of our five starters were very similar - ERAs from 3.50-3.80 - all slightly above average (as a whole, our starters had a 3.69 ERA while the NL starter's ERA was 3.74). I certainly think that can be repeated next year, maybe even improved upon it, depending on how how Fiers does over a full season and how Peralta develops. It's very solid - good enough to win.

 

But our starters don't include guys like Kershaw or Greinke. We don't have any #1 or even #2 types. We have a bunch of #3s. That's fine, but that means you have to kick butt in other areas - hitting and/or with the bullpen. That's the problem. The bullpen was slightly below average last year (3.62 ERA while league average was 3.53).

 

Our gaggle of #3 starters is just fine, but the relievers need to be lights out to raise our pitching from slightly above average to good or very good. We are slated to lose Duke and K-Rod (plus Gorzelanny) - that's about 150 innings of very good relief pitchings. Broxton can make up some of those innings. Hopefully, so can Jeffress too. Otherwise, we counting on improvements from other pitchers (Smith, Kintzler), guys coming off injuries (Thornburg, Henderson), and maybe a rookie or two (Ariel Pena, maybe Nelson). In my mind, things don't look that much better. There are too many question marks.

 

All in all, I see a solid staff, but nothing great. That works if our hitters are really, really good. But I see too many holes in our offense.

[3and2Fastball]

I see too many holes in our offense.

 

Way too many holes. Way too many hitters that are only productive if they are hitting HR's. Not enough hitters who can play small ball, work a count, move a runner over etc... when your HR hitters aren't hitting bombs in a given week, you need some small ball and great pitching and solid fundamentals on defense to grind out some wins.... and the Brew Crew has very little of any of that....

 

Doug Melvin designed the team that way, he's not gonna get fired, so not much is gonna change....

 

Maybe things will change starting in 2016 after Melvin retires

[reillymcshane]

In 2014, Brewer relievers gave up the 2nd most HRs in the NL, the 3rd most triples, had the 3rd worst BA against, and gave up the 4th most total bases, while throwing the 4th least innings.

 

Our lack of depth early on hurt us as our best guys got overworked and by mid season it showed (Duke, K-Rod and Smith had ERAs between 3.97 and 4.91 after the all-star break). Perhaps it contributed some early injuries (that's just speculation). Not having to work around Wang's inability to pitch will really help next year.

 

Next year will be interesting. From comments from Melvin and ownership, we aren't going to reboot this team. We'll 'go for it' for another year or two. If that's the case, we need a lights out bullpen to go with our good, but not great rotation. And we'll need depth in the bullpen, since injuries (and the fickle nature of relievers) are part of the game. The moment we have guys like Vinny Chulk taking the mound, you can pretty much fold the hand.

 

We need to replace 190+ innings that Duke, K-Rod, Gorzelanny and Estrada had last season (people might not realize that Marco did really well after getting banished to the bullpen - 2.89 ERA in 43.2 IP). That will be tough. Broxton and Jeffress will be around for a full season. Henderson and Thornburg will hopefully be back (but it's hard to count on them at this point). I like Ariel Pena in the pen - I think his stuff will play well there. Jimmy Nelson might end up in the pen as well. Not a lot after that, unless Rob Wooten excites you (I do like David Goforth, but he probably needs at least a half season in AAA). But in the end, we need to be better. We need to avoid overusing guys and believe that our relief staff has 5-6 quality arms that you trust with a lead - not just 2-3 guys.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Melvin added veteran arm. A guy like Luke Gregerson would be perfect. He won't be cheap, but he's not a 'closer' so his price won't be as high as a guy like K-Rod.

 

I also wouldn't be shocked if K-Rod comes back. If someone gives him $10+ million a year - then no. But if Melvin can get him for 2-3 years at $7-8 million, he might jump. I hope not, but it's Melvin. Fernando Rodney, coming off a 37 save/3.43 ERA season, got $14 million over two years last year. So there's no guarantee that K-Rod breaks the bank. He had a nice season, but the 14 HRs is worrisome. Not to mention he's had some off field issues, which teams will be very careful about in the wake of the NFL /Ray Rice fiasco.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

easy just hire a bunch of lardinals. they know what they're doing.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

In 2014, Brewer relievers gave up the 2nd most HRs in the NL, the 3rd most triples, had the 3rd worst BA against, and gave up the 4th most total bases, while throwing the 4th least innings.

 

Our lack of depth early on hurt us as our best guys got overworked and by mid season it showed (Duke, K-Rod and Smith had ERAs between 3.97 and 4.91 after the all-star break). Perhaps it contributed some early injuries (that's just speculation). Not having to work around Wang's inability to pitch will really help next year.

 

Next year will be interesting. From comments from Melvin and ownership, we aren't going to reboot this team. We'll 'go for it' for another year or two. If that's the case, we need a lights out bullpen to go with our good, but not great rotation. And we'll need depth in the bullpen, since injuries (and the fickle nature of relievers) are part of the game. The moment we have guys like Vinny Chulk taking the mound, you can pretty much fold the hand.

 

We need to replace 190+ innings that Duke, K-Rod, Gorzelanny and Estrada had last season (people might not realize that Marco did really well after getting banished to the bullpen - 2.89 ERA in 43.2 IP). That will be tough. Broxton and Jeffress will be around for a full season. Henderson and Thornburg will hopefully be back (but it's hard to count on them at this point). I like Ariel Pena in the pen - I think his stuff will play well there. Jimmy Nelson might end up in the pen as well. Not a lot after that, unless Rob Wooten excites you (I do like David Goforth, but he probably needs at least a half season in AAA). But in the end, we need to be better. We need to avoid overusing guys and believe that our relief staff has 5-6 quality arms that you trust with a lead - not just 2-3 guys.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Melvin added veteran arm. A guy like Luke Gregerson would be perfect. He won't be cheap, but he's not a 'closer' so his price won't be as high as a guy like K-Rod.

 

I also wouldn't be shocked if K-Rod comes back. If someone gives him $10+ million a year - then no. But if Melvin can get him for 2-3 years at $7-8 million, he might jump. I hope not, but it's Melvin. Fernando Rodney, coming off a 37 save/3.43 ERA season, got $14 million over two years last year. So there's no guarantee that K-Rod breaks the bank. He had a nice season, but the 14 HRs is worrisome. Not to mention he's had some off field issues, which teams will be very careful about in the wake of the NFL /Ray Rice fiasco.

Luke Gregorson is terrible. The guy is incapable of having a clean inning. He blew several games for the A's this year. They were up 7-4 when Lester left the playoff game against the Royals. By the time Gregorson was done it was 7-6. Can't have an 8th inning guy that is incapable of having a clean inning. Guy was a major part of the A's collapse. I actually think the bullpen is the one part of the team that is fine. Their numbers weren't as good thanks to RRR's poor managing and overuse of certain guys.

[brewmann04]

What makes some think they wont bring back Duke and Gorzo? But think people correct you have to find a balance between Power hitter and guys that hit for Avg.

[reillymcshane]

I'm thinking that Melvin's way to 'turn around' this franchise will be to extend A-Ram for a couple of years, then sign left handed hitting 1B Adam LaRoche for 2-years at $12-14 million a year.

 

Melvin was lamenting how the team isn't hitting HRs like it used to. So I'm thinking he he'll try and add a HR hitting type (enter LaRoche).

 

This is a risky move. LaRoche will be 35, can't hit lefties very well, runs poorly and isn't anything special at 1B. He's been a somewhat inconsistent hitter in his career. He's had issues with his shoulder, back and oblique over the past few years, although the shoulder injury was the only serious problem (surgery after the 2011 season appears to have fixed it). He's at an age where his weaknesses are going to become amplified.

 

Add back in A-Ram, and you have two older hitters who are slugs on the base paths.

 

If LaRoche isn't attainable, I wouldn't be shocked to see Melvin go after right hander Mike Morse. Morse wouldn't cost as much, but he's a wildly inconsistent player who if often on the DL. At 33, he's a little younger than LaRoche. He rarely walks and is a poor baserunner. As a defender, he needs to be put at 1B. He's a terrible OF.

 

No matter who is brought in, the biggest thing we can hope for a return to form from Ryan Braun.

[monty57]

I think you're right reilly. Brewer brass will correctly realize that without Ramirez, there are way too many holes to fill. What they will fail to realize is that Ramirez is aging, so he isn't the same player he was and signing a player in the twilight of his career to a multi-year deal for 10-20% of your team's payroll will be a really bad thing. Then they'll spend a boatload of money on another guy on the wrong side of 30, which will excite the group of fans that needs an annual sign from management that they're "going for it," so ticket sales will see a bump up as soon as the free agents are announced.

 

Next year, we will end up fighting for last place in the division, only to lose Gallardo, Lohse and Broxton for nothing to free agency, and we will once again discuss what patch is out there that will magically turn a declining franchise around.

 

But, at least the fair weather fans will know that the Brewers have an owner who "wants to win," as if realizing that your team needs to take a step back in order to take two steps forward means you "don't want to win."

[reillymcshane]

What they will fail to realize is that Ramirez is aging

I think they know exactly what kind of player he is (aging, suffering from injuries, declining production), but they'll sign him anyways. They'll sign A-Ram and LaRoche and hope and pray that they can defy age and injuries for another year or two. It's not impossible - just improbable.

 

It's the 'if everything goes right' syndrome that afflicts the Brewers most seasons (and a lot of other clubs).

 

I can say right now that if Braun returns to his 2012 form, Luc, Scooter and Gomez repeat, Davis improves, Segura rebounds to his 2013 form, A-Ram (and the rest of the team) stays healthy, and we sign a guy like LaRoche and he can hit 25HR with a .260BA, we'll have a pretty good offense.

 

But that's not how things usually work. 2014: Luc has a great year - Braun has a bad year. Scooter and Davis have good years - Segura, Reynolds and Overbay do not. Things tend to work that way, and counting on good luck is a poor way of running a franchise. You might actually get lucky one in ten times - but all the rest is failure.

 

Perhaps I'm wrong to be a cynic. Players and management and ownership want to win - now. And so do fans. Saying 'wait a few years' doesn't cut it with a lot of people. I just think it keeps the franchise stuck in mediocrity.

[jjgott]

How do we turn this sad franchise around? Hire Ned Yost, natch.

[The stache]

I have a terrible feeling that this time next year, we're going to be having the same discussion. The Cardinals will be going to their fifth straight NLCS, and we'll be discussing what we need to do to improve on our 85-77 record. Mark Attanasio will say "we're going to look at the coaching staff, Doug and I, and figure out what needs to be done. We realized some improvements this year, and it showed in the standings as we won three more games than we did in 2014. We're headed in the right direction."

 

Sadly, as long as Doug Melvin is our GM, we won't win. As I have pointed out several times. Doug has been an Assistant GM/Head of Player development or a GM for 27 years now, and his teams have won one playoff series. That's kind of a trend, Mark. We lucked into the playoffs in 2008 because we got C.C. Sabathia for a half season, and he was unhittable. He earned a 5.2 WAR in 17 starts, and went 11-2. The Brewers were 14-3 in his starts.