How do we turn this sad franchise around?

[gregmag]

I'm crushed and depressed by the collapse this year. Even so, I have no interest in pained posturing or grand pronouncements about the state of the franchise. All you can do at any given time is focus on the road ahead of you.

 

The draft this year showed what I think most people here see as an improvement in strategy. That's good, and we need to hire Seid's replacement with a focus on entrenching the lessons we've learned. Player development seems healthy, in the sense that we had some prospects take steps forward this year, but I don't feel informed enough about that to make a judgment.

 

The problem with improving the MLB roster is that it isn't like we're drowning in deadweight players. Weeks, Reynolds, and Overbay can/will be gone. Ramirez can be gone. Some of the bullpen guys, including K-Rod, will be gone. The only contract I might scrub is Garza, but objectively that's a decent value contract, which means it isn't without trade value. Lohse, Yo, and Broxton have short commitments, which makes them eminently tradeable. We have Gomez and Lucroy signed to obscenely team-friendly deals. We got Jeffress back for nothing, and he looks like a key bullpen guy going forward.

 

Trying to look dispassionately at our present situation, with the ultimate goal of winning a championship, I don't see it as a train wreck. I think LouisEly's prescriptions above sound like a pretty smart strategy going forward. Basically, we need to increase the talent base and use resources in ways that don't hamstring us. Maybe a new GM could do that better than DM, maybe not. I just see a not-there-yet organization that needs to keep grinding toward improvement.

[logan82]

Braun is never paid more than $15m in any year.

[Baldkin]

Have not really looked at this thread a whole lot up until today. A few thoughts.

 

- One of the posts suggested off season changes that would bring the total payroll to $121M. The current payroll is at about $103M. I can't see any scenario where Attanasio signs off on a $15-$20M payroll increase next year especially since I'm guessing ticket sales will be down or flat going into the season.

 

They didn't tap into the extra 25 million they were getting this season from the new national TV deals. They could definitely hit that payroll amount. Not to mention whatever extra they got from their new FSN TV deal.

[reillymcshane]

Braun is never paid more than $15m in any year.

According to Cot's baseball contracts, Braun will make $19 million each year from 2016-18; $18 million in 2019; $16 million in 2020; and $15 million in 2021 with a $4 million buyout.

 

He makes $14.5 million in 2015 - $12 million salary and $2.5 million deferred signing bonus.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/

 

Perhaps there's a better place for salaries, but I always thought Cot's was the best.

[Patrick425]

Braun is never paid more than $15m in any year.

 

As Reilly pointed out, Braun definitely gets paid more than $15m a year eventually, significantly more (every year from 2016-2020). What I'm having trouble figuring out is Broxton's situation. It says there is a team option to pay him $9M next year, but most of what I have seen shows that he is inked in on the Brewer's next year for $9M. Did the Brewers exercise that option at some point?..was it part of the deal when they aquired him?

[lcbj68c]

My understanding is Broxton is paid $9M in 2015 and has a $9M mutual option w/ $2M buyout in 2016.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/08/brewers-acquire-jonathan-broxton.html

[brewcrewdue80]

I have no proof, so I could be dead wrong, but I believe the Brewers record has absolutely nothing to do with the Brewers beaning or not beaning anyone- including the Cardinals. If anything, it could cost a game by getting our pitcher tossed. If the Cardinals, Pirates, or anyone else wants to play that way, let them.

 

This could be true. But the risk of injury a broken finger/hand, cracked rib, Concussion is there. Allowing Cardinal Pitchers to hit our batters 10times to 1 lets say means our hitters have 10times the risk of attaining those kind of injuries that may lead to a long DL stint.

 

April 28th Brewers vs. Cardinals Brewers were 18-7 Game 1 of 3game set

Carlos Gomez is hit by pitch in 6th along with ARam HBP in 6th. Top of 7th bases loaded ARam is hit by pitch again.

Khris Davis drives in game winner in extras.

Game 2 Lohse hits a PH G. Garcia Win 20-7 on the season.

Game 3 Khris Davis(Mr GW 2 days earlier) in top of 8th inning in a 9-3 Cardinals lead is HBP

 

Fast forward to July 11th Brewers 52-41

First Batter of the Game Gomez is HBP.

Game 2. Nelson in his 2nd start of the season beaned Holliday in the 1st inning. Adam Wainwright folks. Staked to a 6-0 lead somehow Beans Carlos Gomez with 2outs in the 3rd inning.

Game 3. Bottom of the 4th. Runner on 2nd base first base open who's at the Plate? Carlos Gomez. Beaned.

3game series, 3 separate games Carlos Gomez was beaned.

 

Fast forward Aug 1st Brewers 60-49

Game 1. Top of the 6th 3-0 Brewers Adam Wainwright pitching Runners on 2nd and 3rd 1out 1st base open. Carlos Gomez to bat. Beaned

Game 2. Gorzo beans Carpenter in the 8th inning

Game 3. Garza Beans Matt Adams leading off the 2nd inning in a 2-0 lead for Milw.

 

Fast forward Sept 4th Brewers 73-66

Game 1 Peralta beaned Holliday and Scruggs

Game 2 Bot 7th 1out 6-2Brewers lead. Lyons Beans Lucroy

Game 3 Lohse beans Lynn in 2nd. Lynn Beans Overbay in 4th

Game 4 No HBP

 

All told HBPs its:

Gomez 5

ARam 2

Lucroy/Davis 1

 

Holliday 2 Adams 1.

 

Oh the final Series No beanings by Cardinal Pitchers. Hey they had a 5game lead and Playoff Bound.

 

ARam's 2HBPs led to him missing the 2nd/3rd games of that series. He'd return to the lineup after the series for 8 of the next 9 games and bats 5-29 only to suffer a strained Hamstring and miss the next 22games.

Gomez didn't come away affected from his 5 beanings.

 

Yadier Molina not beaned once in the season series. Neither was Braun but he's not the Braun of old.

 

Anyway, just my reasoning of why I didn't like Roenicke's non retailiate tactics. Gomez gets beaned 5 times twice by the Ace of the Cardinal Staff! Someone who hbp batters 4 times one year in 230IP and last season 6 total times in 241IP! Yet batting in the 3rd in a 6-0winning game and 1b open with 1out in a 3-0losing game he beaned Gomez twice. 2 of his 7Hit Batters were Gomez in nearly 900Batters faced.

And I'm sure this has Molina/Cardinal way all over it.

 

Just giving reference to my suggestion.

[logan82]

Braun is never paid more than $15m in any year.

According to Cot's baseball contracts, Braun will make $19 million each year from 2016-18; $18 million in 2019; $16 million in 2020; and $15 million in 2021 with a $4 million buyout.

 

He makes $14.5 million in 2015 - $12 million salary and $2.5 million deferred signing bonus.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/

 

Perhaps there's a better place for salaries, but I always thought Cot's was the best.

I am well aware of Cot's. I think you missed one big detail in the contract.

 

$18M in salary ($4M each in 2016-18 and $3M each in 2019-20) deferred without interest, to be paid in equal installments each July 1 from 2022 to 2031

 

His salary breaks down like this.

 

2015 31 Milwaukee Brewers $14,500,000 including $2.5M signing bonus payment

2016 32 Milwaukee Brewers $15,000,000

2017 33 Milwaukee Brewers $15,000,000

2018 34 Milwaukee Brewers $15,000,000

2019 35 Milwaukee Brewers $16,000,000

2020 36 Milwaukee Brewers $13,000,000

2021 37 Milwaukee Brewers *$20,000,000 $20M Mutual Option, $4M Buyout

2022 38 Retired $2,000,000

2023 39 Retired $2,000,000

2024 40 Retired $2,000,000

2025 41 Retired $2,000,000

2026 42 Retired $2,000,000

2027 43 Retired $2,000,000

2028 44 Retired $2,000,000

2029 45 Retired $2,000,000

2030 46 Retired $2,000,000

2031 47 Retired $2,000,000

[superfly]

Soooooooooooooo tired of hearing about Braun's contract. Enough of the "overpaid" already.

[Invader3K]

Soooooooooooooo tired of hearing about Braun's contract. Enough of the "overpaid" already.

 

Yeah, relatively speaking, it's not the huge millstone around the franchise's neck that some are making it out to be.

[trwi7]

If this is the player he is from now on, how is it anything but a bad contract? Sure it won't be the worst in the league but who would've been happy with the Braun extension if he was posting a sub .800 OPS before the new deal even kicked in?

[adambr2]

The teams in the late 90s and early 2000's had talent, but these guys would be flipped for prospects that would be flipped in a couple years for more prospects, etc. We waited 20 years for an owner that would put together a competitive team and compete in free agency, and now we're complaining he's only patching holes. I'm not saying its been disappointing that we only have 2 postseason appearances to show from Braun, Fielder, Hall, Hardy, Hart, Weeks, Gallardo, Lucroy all coming up through the system, but it's just ridiculous to write off the past ten years as an extension of the previous 10 years minus a few anomalies. We're actually in a position to be upset about a collapse as opposed to being in a position where we're arguing about who to flip for Richie Sexson.

 

+Infinity

 

If I want to go watch the AA team, I'll move to Alabama. You can't just keep flipping prospects over and over and over and over and over and over and expect that voila, one day they'll all just pan out with talent to last for 10 years. I'm fine with the way the Brewers have done business over the past 10 years with the fiscal resources that they have had.

 

I also don't believe that I as a fan, even if I were a season ticket holder, am owed a championship. I'm not owed anything for my loyalty as a fan.

 

You also can't continue to use prospects as trade bait over and over again as we did often from 2007 on without ending up in a situation where you lose most of your top guys to either father time or free agency and end up with a team of aging high priced vets and a barren farm system.

 

While I agree with you that we certainly aren't "owed" a championship, I do believe loyalty is a 2 way street. I'm not going to spend hundreds of dollars on gas, parking, tickets, concessions, and souvenirs without a competitive product on the field. Call it bandwagoning if you will but that's an expensive day and loyalty to my family comes before loyalty to the team. There are plenty of other cheaper things we can do to get away for a day.

[jerichoholicninja]

I have no proof, so I could be dead wrong, but I believe the Brewers record has absolutely nothing to do with the Brewers beaning or not beaning anyone- including the Cardinals. If anything, it could cost a game by getting our pitcher tossed. If the Cardinals, Pirates, or anyone else wants to play that way, let them.

 

This could be true. But the risk of injury a broken finger/hand, cracked rib, Concussion is there. Allowing Cardinal Pitchers to hit our batters 10times to 1 lets say means our hitters have 10times the risk of attaining those kind of injuries that may lead to a long DL stint.

 

April 28th Brewers vs. Cardinals Brewers were 18-7 Game 1 of 3game set

Carlos Gomez is hit by pitch in 6th along with ARam HBP in 6th. Top of 7th bases loaded ARam is hit by pitch again.

Khris Davis drives in game winner in extras.

Game 2 Lohse hits a PH G. Garcia Win 20-7 on the season.

Game 3 Khris Davis(Mr GW 2 days earlier) in top of 8th inning in a 9-3 Cardinals lead is HBP

 

Fast forward to July 11th Brewers 52-41

First Batter of the Game Gomez is HBP.

Game 2. Nelson in his 2nd start of the season beaned Holliday in the 1st inning. Adam Wainwright folks. Staked to a 6-0 lead somehow Beans Carlos Gomez with 2outs in the 3rd inning.

Game 3. Bottom of the 4th. Runner on 2nd base first base open who's at the Plate? Carlos Gomez. Beaned.

3game series, 3 separate games Carlos Gomez was beaned.

 

Fast forward Aug 1st Brewers 60-49

Game 1. Top of the 6th 3-0 Brewers Adam Wainwright pitching Runners on 2nd and 3rd 1out 1st base open. Carlos Gomez to bat. Beaned

Game 2. Gorzo beans Carpenter in the 8th inning

Game 3. Garza Beans Matt Adams leading off the 2nd inning in a 2-0 lead for Milw.

 

Fast forward Sept 4th Brewers 73-66

Game 1 Peralta beaned Holliday and Scruggs

Game 2 Bot 7th 1out 6-2Brewers lead. Lyons Beans Lucroy

Game 3 Lohse beans Lynn in 2nd. Lynn Beans Overbay in 4th

Game 4 No HBP

 

All told HBPs its:

Gomez 5

ARam 2

Lucroy/Davis 1

 

Holliday 2 Adams 1.

 

Oh the final Series No beanings by Cardinal Pitchers. Hey they had a 5game lead and Playoff Bound.

 

ARam's 2HBPs led to him missing the 2nd/3rd games of that series. He'd return to the lineup after the series for 8 of the next 9 games and bats 5-29 only to suffer a strained Hamstring and miss the next 22games.

Gomez didn't come away affected from his 5 beanings.

 

Yadier Molina not beaned once in the season series. Neither was Braun but he's not the Braun of old.

 

Anyway, just my reasoning of why I didn't like Roenicke's non retailiate tactics. Gomez gets beaned 5 times twice by the Ace of the Cardinal Staff! Someone who hbp batters 4 times one year in 230IP and last season 6 total times in 241IP! Yet batting in the 3rd in a 6-0winning game and 1b open with 1out in a 3-0losing game he beaned Gomez twice. 2 of his 7Hit Batters were Gomez in nearly 900Batters faced.

And I'm sure this has Molina/Cardinal way all over it.

 

Just giving reference to my suggestion.

 

Whatever your personal feelings are on retaliation, I think it is quite apparent that the Cardinals have no fear of pitching inside, throwing at our batters, or flat out hitting them. Apparently, Grandpa Ken's strongly worded letter to the commissioner a few years ago had no affect on them.

[FVBrewerFan]

This could be true. But the risk of injury a broken finger/hand, cracked rib, Concussion is there. Allowing Cardinal Pitchers to hit our batters 10times to 1 lets say means our hitters have 10times the risk of attaining those kind of injuries that may lead to a long DL stint.

 

Ok I understand, but do you think the Cardinals will drill the Brewers less if "we" retaliate more? Seems to me it would make the situation worse. I know it's frustrating to get hit so often, but as long as you have guys like Plush and Gomez you're going to attract HBP. I don't like it, it's stupid, but that's the way it works.

[FVBrewerFan]

If this is the player he is from now on, how is it anything but a bad contract? Sure it won't be the worst in the league but who would've been happy with the Braun extension if he was posting a sub .800 OPS before the new deal even kicked in?

 

I don't want to speak for others, but I don't think many would call it a "good" contract. Acceptable contract may be the right word. I plan to dig into the numbers soon, but it seems like .850 OPS is the new 1.00 OPS. And 20 HRs is the new 30 HRs. Just seems like HR, BA, lots of offensive numbers are way down from where they were a few years ago.

 

Anyhow, as I said ina previous post on this thread, I think it's worth exploring restructuring Braun's contract to make it more team friendly.

[JohnBriggs12]

Lucroy: "We got complacent" Complacent?? Really? Well managed teams never get complacent. Good managers find ways to prevent complacency or if they begin to sense it, know how to shake things up.

[jerichoholicninja]

Lucroy: "We got complacent" Complacent?? Really? Well managed teams never get complacent. Good managers find ways to prevent complacency or if they begin to sense it, know how to shake things up.

 

If the team got "complacent" that's as much on the players as the manager, which is surprising for as veteran as the team is. Were they complacent for a whole month, though? When they went from 6 games up to not up at all were they still complacent? At what point did they start being complacent and at what point did it become obvious they had to stop being complacent? And why didn't they?

[3and2Fastball]

Lucroy: "We got complacent" Complacent?? Really? Well managed teams never get complacent. Good managers find ways to prevent complacency or if they begin to sense it, know how to shake things up.

 

I strongly agree. It is completely perplexing as to how the Brewers could ever get "complacent". Seriously? That is the #1 reason why RRR has to go, to me.

 

I mean. c'mon now, the only reason the words "Brewers" and "complacent" should be in a sentence together would be either this:

 

"The Brewers are not complacent"

 

or this

 

The Brewers got complacent

[monty57]

Anyhow, as I said ina previous post on this thread, I think it's worth exploring restructuring Braun's contract to make it more team friendly.

 

That will never happen. It's a guaranteed deal, and if teams could get out of bad deals, they would. Braun will either need to retire and forego over $100 million (unlikely) or if they have insurance he'd need to get injured enough that he can't play and have insurance kick in. Most likely, the Brewers will pay Braun for the next 17 years.

 

Braun's initial extension was a great deal... I love pre-arby extensions to star players. The second extension, while probably less than "market value" at the time of signing, was not horrible, but necessarily a good deal. Even if he stayed healthy and productive, it still paid him well beyond his peak years which is very dangerous. Then, even after he's retired, the Brewers will still have to pay him, which will mean a little less money that could go to improving the team that will then be on the field. Like Ramirez's deal, this was Melvin working a deal to help the team in the present at the expense of the future. I understand time value of money, but unless they're taking that extra money and gaining a positive dollar value return off of it until it is paid out when Braun is retired, I don't think it applies. What matters from a payroll perspective is how much money is available in any given season to pay the players. The money that would go to Braun will just go to someone else that season, and the deferred money that will go to Braun when he's retired will not be available to go to someone else then. Since that will likely be the case, then unless the player paid during Braun's career using the deferred money brings in a tangible positive return that is greater than the tangible negative return from utilizing payroll to pay a retired player, time value of money shouldn't be used as an argument for structuring deals this way.

 

I can understand why Melvin and Attanasio jumped when Braun came to them with the extension idea. It was certainly a lot less risky than signing Sabathia or Fielder to the deals they signed, but it bore a lot of risk nonetheless, and at this point in time, it doesn't appear that it will turn out to be a good deal. Hopefully Braun will heal up and make it look better. I've always believed that this would be a Soriano-type deal, where Braun would get to a point where he was still a decent player, just not worth what he was being paid. However, I hoped it wouldn't happen early due to injury, and I certainly thought he would have "legendary face of franchise" status that would add value, and not the negative "cheater" status that now saddles him.

[adambr2]

If this is the player he is from now on, how is it anything but a bad contract? Sure it won't be the worst in the league but who would've been happy with the Braun extension if he was posting a sub .800 OPS before the new deal even kicked in?

 

I don't want to speak for others, but I don't think many would call it a "good" contract. Acceptable contract may be the right word. I plan to dig into the numbers soon, but it seems like .850 OPS is the new 1.00 OPS. And 20 HRs is the new 30 HRs. Just seems like HR, BA, lots of offensive numbers are way down from where they were a few years ago.

 

Anyhow, as I said ina previous post on this thread, I think it's worth exploring restructuring Braun's contract to make it more team friendly.

 

If that was an option, it would have definitely been one we explored with Jeff Suppan.

 

With the exception of some performance based escalators, MLB contracts are 100% guaranteed. There isn't a penny of the $105M that we can get out of, and deferring it more to the future probably isn't an option as that's already been done.

[FVBrewerFan]

Braun's situation is different in a very important way- PEDs. I understand the contract is guaranteed, but that was based on a PED-free Braun. They could explore going down the road of breach of contract. Would Braun really want his name dragged through the mud all over again? Or just agree to lowering his salary by 20% or so, as an example.

[jerichoholicninja]

Braun's situation is different in a very important way- PEDs. I understand the contract is guaranteed, but that was based on a PED-free Braun. They could explore going down the road of breach of contract. Would Braun really want his name dragged through the mud all over again? Or just agree to lowering his salary by 20% or so, as an example.

 

If PED's allowed teams to change contracts, the Yankees would have tried with Arod.

[TooLiveBrew]

Braun's situation is different in a very important way- PEDs. I understand the contract is guaranteed, but that was based on a PED-free Braun. They could explore going down the road of breach of contract. Would Braun really want his name dragged through the mud all over again? Or just agree to lowering his salary by 20% or so, as an example.

2012 was a PED-free Braun.

[monty57]

There would have to be a clause in the contract, such as Boone's clause against playing basketball that allowed the Yankees to void his deal. If there were a clause in Braun's contract regarding PED usage, it would have already came out. Many players have been suspended for PED usage before Braun, so if there were a way out, teams would have already done it.

 

To your next point, what good would "dragging Braun's name through the mud" do for the Brewers? The probable net outcome would be that more fans would be turned off, costing the team revenue. Plus, if they were using it as a way to blackmail Braun into signing a lesser contract, the union would probably have good grounds for getting whoever was behind the decision permanently banned from baseball.

[JohnBriggs12]

I wonder if the Brewers insured Braun's contract? Maybe they could declare him medically unfit to play.

 

Golfer Anthony Kim, who disappeared from the PGA tour 2-3 years ago, gets a $10 million insurance settlement if he never tees it up again in a PGA event. He had some injury issues that in part forced him off tour but is now reportedly healthy but if he "proves" he's healthy enough to play, goodbye $10 million.