How do we turn this sad franchise around?

[Patrick425]

reilly,

I came on brewerfan to read a summary on a path to the future and your post was exactly what i was looking for. well-written and i agree with everything. too bad that's where we're at but what're you gonna do. at this point just STOCK prospects.

 

I also wholeheartedly agree. However, the key words are "at this point". It's clear that is the direction the Brewers should take now. Time to "clean house" and build for the future. However, when the future arrives, please don't be angry when the Brewers then trade whatever prospects they still have in the system for guys to help them win now (as they did with Sabathia and Grienke). Seems like there are some on this board who never want to trade prospects and always want to build for the future. I realize that neither Sabatihia or Grienke garnered the Brewers a WS appearance, but I'm not sure that they would have been any better off today if they had not made those trades and they may have still been searching for their first playoff birth since 1982 (they definitely would not have made it in 2008 without Sabathia).

[logan82]

The Sabathia trade wasn't horrible. We still looked good for the future at that point. Bad drafting and the Greinke/Marcum trades gutted us.

[Ennder]

I think your methodology for judging Melvin in the first half of your post is just terrible. It is like saying a player is great because he hit a lot of HR and ignoring the fact he never walks and hits .220 and can't field. To use another sport it is as silly as judging QB's by super bowl wins. You can have a great GM who doesn't get lucky enough to make it to the playoffs consistently and there are many teams that win championships that weren't even one of the 6 or 7 best teams in the league. Way too much goes into it to try to make it that easy.

 

I think Melvin used to be a slightly above GM but more and more young blood that understands the game on a deeper level have come along and now he is average to below average. I'm absolutely fine with overhauling the team but I also understand why they don't want to do it. It isn't an easy decision. There was a competitive window that appears to be closing, it certainly wasn't helped any by Braun's suspension and injuries. This is the third year straight that one just awful stretch by the team is going to derail a season too so I am fine with letting RR go, he doesn't seem to have answers for how to get out of a funk when the team isn't playing well.

 

At the minimum they need to trade the temporary parts that they can sooner rather than later to get actual value. Personally I'd trade scooter too, I don't feel he'll ever hit lefties. They also definitely need to take a long look at what they are doing at the minor league level because a lot of your complaints about sloppy play, plate discipline, pitch counts etc are things that start in the minors and are largely developed by the time you reach the majors.

[patrickgpe]

The truth is that the only way the brewers will improve is the same way they did it in the early to mid 2000's. They need to draft well. They have been plagued with bad picks in the mid to late rounds. Hopefully last summers draft was a start in the right direction. Ownership needs to understand that its a much better use of money to draft players and pay over slot than sign players like Lohse or Garza. I can't see the brewers being a contender for 5 years because they have tried to hold instead of just gutting it.

 

I hope that the brewers would try to get top propsects for ANY player on the roster to try to build up the franchise. True brewer fans would understand. I just don't want the brewers to operate like the bucks did for the last 10 years of the Kohl era where they wouldn't gut it out and simply tried to sneak into the players each season, usually ending up just short (thus ending up with a mid 1st round pick)

[tmwiese55]

Great post Reillly, spot on. And I agree with Patrick too, I made a similar point in a different thread.

 

I don't think the Marcum, CC, Greinke trades hurt us at all really, it's the poor drafting that killed us. Lawire has flopped and proven to be a headcase, which everyone said at the time as why they were willing to dump him. Laporta flopped, but Brantley eventually became a good starter to salvage that deal for Cleveland. Greinke: yes Cain, Escobar and Ordazzi are major league players but none are stars or game changers. Greinke was really good for us and the key to getting us as close as we did, plus they got Segura back for him to cancel out one of the guys we lost and might still get something out of one of the pitchers.

 

Not looking to rehash the trade discussions, just getting at the point that drafting and/or development was the main problem here. We've won most trades in recent years outside of Carlos Lee. I'd call Greinke a win/win for both sides. Hardy for Gomez, blowout win there.

[reillymcshane]

Trading prospects for veterans should always be considered. The key is you need to develop a lot of prospects so that you that when you deal some of them, you're not emptying the pipeline of quality (and cheap) players.

[3and2Fastball]

Jake Odorizzi is 25 years old and making $500K this year. He won't be a free agent until 2020. He has been solid but not spectacular so far in his MLB career (3.91 ERA, 97 ERA+) but thus far this year appears to have stepped up to a new level (1.74 ERA/230 ERA+)

 

Jake Odorizzi is the perfect example of why the game of Baseball has passed Doug Melvin by. The best teams very very rarely trade away young cost-controllable pitching.

 

When great teams "go for it" by doing something like the Greinke trade, they don't do it half-way and start Yuni B at SS or have a manager who starts Mark Kotsay in CF in a playoff game.

[3and2Fastball]

Another way to look at it:

 

Odorizzi, considering he was pitching in the AL East, was just about as effective last year as Kyle Lohse. This year (small sample) he is night & day better than Kyle Lohse. He projects to continue to be way better than Kyle Lohse in 2016, 2017, 2018 & 2019 before he becomes a free agent.

 

If you trade Jake Odorizzi at the deadline in 2018 or 2019 you can get a nice return for him. No such option is available in those years for Lohse.

 

By having Odorizzi in the rotation and not Lohse you've saved $10 million per year. By not having Aramis Ramirez on the team, that's another $10-$14 million a year. Aramis Ramirez has played in exactly zero playoff games for the Brewers. That was one of the most pointless/foolhardy signings ever.

 

I understand that many think that the Greinke trade was the only way the Brewers make the playoffs in 2011, and that the particular trade for Greinke was the only way the Brewers could land a pitcher the caliber of Greinke, but I wholeheartedly disagree.

 

Greinke is 2011 was only a slightly better than average pitcher (3.83 ERA, 103 ERA+ i.e. similar to the numbers Odorizzi put up as a 23 year old!) and horrible in the postseason anyways

[monty57]

Trading prospects for veterans should always be considered. The key is you need to develop a lot of prospects so that you that when you deal some of them, you're not emptying the pipeline of quality (and cheap) players.

 

And since some prospects fail, you greatly increase your odds of building a "homegrown core" if you have a lot of talent on the farm.

 

The Brewers are a business, and in any business the person at the top (CEO, president, owner, whatever) has to always think five years down the road. When the person at the top starts saying things like "sometimes you have to think about the future, and sometimes you have to give up the future to do well today," you know that the organization is going to be in trouble in the future.

 

Could you imagine the CEO of Pfizer saying "we're going to trade all of our drugs in development in order to get another year of patent protection on Lipitor?" There sales would be great for one more year, and then they'd collapse. I understand baseball isn't like some other businesses, or the Brewers would have been put out of business many years ago, but that doesn't mean basic business principles don't apply.

 

This is not at all saying that you need to give up on today, just that you always have to know where you want to be in the future. I can't fathom what Attanasio has been thinking other than in this one aspect of his life he lets his "inner fan" beat out his "inner businessman," and shoots for immediate gratification over long-term success. I highly doubt he runs his other businesses this way, and if he does he's the luckiest person alive.

[FVBrewerFan]

Let's not get bogged down talking about PAST trades. This thread is to discuss the FUTURE. I agree with most of what you said Reilly. A few points to add:

 

- I don't think you can be afraid to trade Segura or Davis. If some team really wants one of them, you take a deal if it benefits the team in 2018 and beyond. We have Arcias, Sardinas, Rivera, plus who knows who else in the lower minors that could emerge.

 

- Honestly, the more I think about it I would add Peralta to the list. He will have his 6 years in by the time this thing turns around again. If he returns to form, you can't afford to sign him long term. If he's mediocre, well then you should have gotten great value in the trade.

 

-Above all else, I think you need to hire a GM from within a successful franchise. Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals, etc. Someone who understands how to build a staff that knows how to identify and develop pitching talent above all else. This is crucial.

 

-Starting pitching is going to be tough during this period. IF they do what they should, and deal Garza and Lohse. You're essentially left with Peralta and Nelson. MAYBE Fiers. After that, there's simply nothing there that's anywhere close to a sure thing. But the need to avoid the temptation of spending money on fill-in guys like Suppan/Wolf.

 

-Beyond that, it's faith and patience. Build up the system with as much talent as possible, and wait for it to develop. No guarantee we will ever again develop Gallardo, Fielder, Braun, Hardy, Hart, Weeks, etc. all at roughly the same time. But it is the best chance we have to be a legit contender.

[monty57]

By not having Aramis Ramirez on the team, that's another $10-$14 million a year. Aramis Ramirez has played in exactly zero playoff games for the Brewers. That was one of the most pointless/foolhardy signings ever.

 

Let's not forget that in his first year as a Brewers (the one year he was injury free and productive), when the Brewers were out of it and the the Dodgers were just bought and wanted to "make a splash," they wanted to trade a couple of young pitchers (I believe Eovaldi and one other) for Ramirez. Melvin basically laughed and said "I just signed him, and I didn't sign him to trade him in his first season."

 

Odorizzi, Eovaldi, Peralta, Nelson, Fiers/whoever... yeah, I'd take that right now. No need for Lohse or Garza signings and therefore around $100,000,000 saved when you include that we would have traded Ramirez. Where we are as a franchise right now was not a foregone conclusion. There were many different paths we could have ridden.

[3and2Fastball]

By not having Aramis Ramirez on the team, that's another $10-$14 million a year. Aramis Ramirez has played in exactly zero playoff games for the Brewers. That was one of the most pointless/foolhardy signings ever.

 

Let's not forget that in his first year as a Brewers (the one year he was injury free and productive), when the Brewers were out of it and the the Dodgers were just bought and wanted to "make a splash," they wanted to trade a couple of young pitchers (I believe Eovaldi and one other) for Ramirez. Melvin basically laughed and said "I just signed him, and I didn't sign him to trade him in his first season."

 

Odorizzi, Eovaldi, Peralta, Nelson, Fiers/whoever... yeah, I'd take that right now. No need for Lohse or Garza signings and therefore around $100,000,000 saved when you include that we would have traded Ramirez. Where we are as a franchise right now was not a foregone conclusion. There were many different paths we could have ridden.

 

Exactly! And monty57, it isn't just you and other knowledgeable fans that would have made that trade. Most of the young GM's in the game (A.J. Preller, Theo Epstein etc etc) would have made that trade in a heartbeat.

 

Melvin has consistently been behind on every trend in MLB: emphasis on young controllable pitching, defense, OBP, advanced analytics, exphasis on signing Cuban players etc etc

[3and2Fastball]

If the Brewers had never signed Lohse, Ramirez etc, then Jose Abreu would be our 1B right now.

[monty57]

Let's not get bogged down talking about PAST trades. This thread is to discuss the FUTURE.

 

Yes, but those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it. I'd hate to go through another grueling, 5-10 year rebuild only to have management once again play for a short-term "window," so we'll once again be forced into another long, grueling rebuild. I'd have a hard time sticking with the team if that's the cycle. That would be like rooting for beta or Colecovision to make a big comeback.

[tmwiese55]

I saw an article on Grantland last year talking about the Cubs rebuild and what they've done with pitchers, we could do a similar thing to fill in these next few years rather than have overwhelmed young guys get crushed and ruin them.

 

They essentially sought out guys with strong secondary stats but poor ERAs that were cheap and under the radar, signed a few and hoped the secondary numbers were legit. Then if they do well try to trade them for more prospects. I can't remember which guys were like this but I think Hammels is one. It might at least provide some respectability and not losing 100+ games and if you hit a few of them maybe get some more prospects. Plus young guys in our system won't be thrown in before they're ready which could ruin them, and if they do become good a year or two later their arbitration clocks would be further behind.

 

Here's the link: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/chicago-cubs-rebuilding-theo-epstein-javier-baez-kris-bryant-jake-arrieta/

 

It also talks about how they invested their drafts in hitting, I think most here would agree that aspect doesn't apply to us but I like the pitching idea for the next couple years to fill out 2 or 3 spots in the rotation. We're not the same as them since we won't have unlimited payroll like them so I think we have to be investing in young pitching at all times, I'm saying this idea as more of a stopgap the next few years.

[monty57]

I saw an article on Grantland last year talking about the Cubs rebuild and what they've done with pitchers, we could do a similar thing to fill in these next few years rather than have overwhelmed young guys get crushed and ruin them.

 

They essentially sought out guys with strong secondary stats but poor ERAs that were cheap and under the radar, signed a few and hoped the secondary numbers were legit. Then if they do well try to trade them for more prospects. I can't remember which guys were like this but I think Hammels is one. It might at least provide some respectability and not losing 100+ games and if you hit a few of them maybe get some more prospects. Plus young guys in our system won't be thrown in before they're ready which could ruin them, and if they do become good a year or two later their arbitration clocks would be further behind.

 

Here's the link: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/chicago-cubs-rebuilding-theo-epstein-javier-baez-kris-bryant-jake-arrieta/

 

It also talks about how they invested their drafts in hitting, I think most here would agree that aspect doesn't apply to us but I like the pitching idea for the next couple years to fill out 2 or 3 spots in the rotation. We're not the same as them since we won't have unlimited payroll like them so I think we have to be investing in young pitching at all times, I'm saying this idea as more of a stopgap the next few years.

 

We really only have a spot if Garza is traded, which is a definite possibility. Peralta, Nelson, Fiers are cheap with team control, so while they could (maybe even should??) be traded, I don't see the team doing it before next season. Then you have Thornburg and Jungmann. While not "proven," unless we net something better in trade, I'd say both of these guys should be in the rotation next year to see what they've got. Both are "MLB ready," so it's not like we're taking one of our promising guys from A-Ball and throwing him to the wolves. Plus, everyone else in the minors will be one more year advanced from where they are today.

 

I'm not totally against signing a guy like you're talking about if we have an injury, or if one of the above-mentioned guys gets traded, but as it sits right now, even if Garza is traded I don't think we'll have the need to do that if we indeed are in rebuild mode. Note, I'm still not convinced we will be in rebuild mode.

[Patrick425]

Odorizzi, Eovaldi, Peralta, Nelson, Fiers/whoever... yeah, I'd take that right now.

 

...along with still looking for our first playoff appearance in 30+ years?

 

I know we don't want to rehash and this is a conversation about building for the future. Yes, let's build for the future and then strike when the time is right. Sorry, but there are windows of opportunity and franchises like Milwaukee have to take advantage of them when they come up. I think believing that you are going to build some sort of dynasty in Milwaukee by always building for the future and never willing to trade prospects is flawed. I think that just leads to many years of maybe being competitive, but not quite making the playoffs because you were unwilling to trade to fill in the missing piece or two that was needed.

[tmwiese55]

Lohse will be gone, potential Garza trade, Fiers might not make it out of the year with a rotation spot. 3 spots could be up for grabs next year. That's the scenario I was looking at. I suppose Thornburg kind of has to be thrown out there and see if swims probably, but we might find out this year that he sinks. Jungman could definitely take a spot next year but could be a candidate for what I was getting at, give him another year to develop and delay arbitration a year in case he pans out.

[3and2Fastball]

Odorizzi, Eovaldi, Peralta, Nelson, Fiers/whoever... yeah, I'd take that right now.

 

...along with still looking for our first playoff appearance in 30+ years?

.

 

Again, trading for Greinke was not in any stretch of the imagination the only way the 2011 Brewers make the playoffs. Greinke was slightly better than average in 2011. The production we got from Greinke could have been attained in a dozen different ways. And they had already made the playoffs in 2008, so I fail to see the point.

[brewcrewdue80]

Pretty sure we all know how to turn this sad franchise around. It's build through the draft. Like the Packers. It's not overspending on Free Agents that cost a draft pick like Lohse. It's being willing to make a trade for the future strength of the franchise when the opportunity presents itself, vs laughing it off in the ARam story above. 2014, it appears was a banner year for building through the draft and International signings. That's a start, only it's what 5years in the making? Not since 2008? And there's still part of last year's draft that could be attributed to luck. Nobody draft Harrison or Gatewood before the Brewers took them. The Medeiros pick wasn't taken as a winning pick in opinion at the time vs what was left on the board. So while 2014 looks great now, one can't actually say that is what the team drew up to happen. It started with a small fail, ended up with a big Win.

 

Maybe the success of that draft though overall will lead them to drafting more that way and less the previous way.

 

You can go back and read every page of this thread, it's all saying the same thing. We know how to turn this around. There's not much more to be said if any on turning it around. It's just repeating what's been said, with different wording. What more needs to be added to this thread?

[monty57]

Odorizzi, Eovaldi, Peralta, Nelson, Fiers/whoever... yeah, I'd take that right now.

 

...along with still looking for our first playoff appearance in 30+ years?

 

We made the playoffs in 2008 prior to trading away the farm for Greinke and Marcum, so no we would not still be looking for our first playoffs in 30+ years.

 

In addition to the above, we could also have players received when trading Fielder and Hart, along with a good portion of the World Series contending Royals' roster. We'd still have Gomez, Braun, Lucroy, Davis, Scooter, and a lot of other guys, and that $100MM or so we didn't spend that I mentioned... that could've helped fill in some gaps. There is a good possibility we'd have seen the playoffs multiple times since the 2010 offseason, while still having a promising future. We will never know. All we know is we won one playoff series at the cost of their future, and for some reason that is acceptable to many Brewer fans, who would not accept that from their beloved Packers, who always look to the future and have created somewhat of a dynasty in large part by showing a willingness to give up "name" veterans for young, unproven players (including but not limited to Hall of Famer Favre for injury-prone, unproven Rodgers for those who say the only way they win is because they have a QB).

 

I know we don't want to rehash and this is a conversation about building for the future. Yes, let's build for the future and then strike when the time is right. Sorry, but there are windows of opportunity and franchises like Milwaukee have to take advantage of them when they come up. I think believing that you are going to build some sort of dynasty in Milwaukee by always building for the future and never willing to trade prospects is flawed. I think that just leads to many years of maybe being competitive, but not quite making the playoffs because you were unwilling to trade to fill in the missing piece or two that was needed.

 

You don't really present my argument very accurately, so I'll just simply say that I believe the future always has to be considered, as does the present. When, for a prolonged period of time, a team makes every move for "today," and no moves for "tomorrow," tomorrow will still come, and it will not be any fun. When a team, especially a smaller-market team, plays for a "window," there will be a lot more down years than up years, as it takes a complete rebuild to get you to the stage where you mortgage the future for your "window," and since you mortgaged your future, you need another complete rebuild. Complete rebuilds take about a decade, whereas your "window" is usually only a few seasons.

 

Teams like the Brewers need strong farms far more than big markets do, as that is the only way they can get years of inexpensive control out of players, whether they're MLB average, good or great. All "taking advantage of a window" does is give you a slightly better chance in one year, while pretty much guaranteeing that you will be forced into a nearly decade long rebuild. There is no "perfect recipe," other than maybe having triple the payroll of everyone else like the Yankees had for a while. Other than that, all plans have faults. I just believe that with the way baseball's payroll works, the only way for the Brewers to have any chance at sustained success is to continually have good pre-arby and arby players, which allows for them to also have a select group of higher-priced players on the roster. The only way to do that is to have a good farm, and you can't have a good farm if your management, for a prolonged period of time, makes every move for "today," and no moves for "tomorrow."

 

So why is this important in a thread about the future? Because playing for the "window" in 2011-2012 (didn't win us a World Series in 2011 and sure as heck didn't work in 2012) has naturally forced us into a rebuild. We should have started a few years ago, but we didn't, because the owner wanted to try to keep the "window" open for a few more seasons. Now, since even the proverbial blind monkeys are starting to see that a rebuild is inevitable, what are we going to do? I sure as heck don't want us to go through all of this again only to once again destroy a promising future. Unfortunately, Attanasio knows that there are a lot of fans who seek immediate gratification and believe we should trade "tomorrow" for "today" at any chance we get, so I'm sure that given the opportunity (and he's the owner, so he is certainly given the opportunity), he will continue to run this franchise in a way not suited to a smaller-market team. Heck, in today's age, his methods probably aren't suited for any market, but they sure aren't suited for Milwaukee.

 

I like reilly's ideas, I only wish they had been instituted several years ago, and if by some miracle they are instituted today, I hope they are a model for how we run things going forward.

[tmwiese55]

I don't think the whole we mortgaged the future point lots of people make is totally accurate. Yes they actually did try to do it, but it didn't work out that way. All we'd have right now is Brantley, cain(only one would've played so we'd really only have one), ordazzi, and Escobar instead of Segura and that roughly 20th pick for lohse. Would we all be that much more optimistic if that was the case? It's 9 yrs of failed drafts and/or development that killed us and what needs to be addressed

[SRB]

If the Brewers had never signed Lohse, Ramirez etc, then Jose Abreu would be our 1B right now.

 

Can't blame that one on the front office. They gave him a massive offer, but he didn't want to play here. He would have been even less likely to want to play here if we had been in a full rebuild.

[tmwiese55]

Another thing I forgot is to keep in mind when they made these decisions they were planning on having a top 5 player as a cornerstone. Braun essentially blew the last two years for us with the suspension and then injury, don't think we make the playoffs last year if Braun is just good down the stretch, not historically good like he was, just good? If we were in potential rebuild mode how many people would have been complaining about wasting the best brewer ever's prime years?

[logan82]

You need more than just one Hall of Famer on your team to make it competitive.