How do we turn this sad franchise around?

[The stache]

Before anybody feels inclined to throw things at me, understand that I love the Brewers, and I have since I was 8 or 9 years old. I will be 43 years old in three days, and when I am on my deathbed, God willing many years from now, I will still love them. My affinity for, and my loyalty to this team has never wavered. But at some point we need to be honest with ourselves.

 

Our franchise is pathetic.

 

The Brewers came to Milwaukee in 1970, the year before I was born. Since then, this team has been to one World Series, and lost it. Teams that did not exist in 1982, or even in 1992, have been to the World Series, and won.

 

The Florida Marlins were established in 1993. They've won two World Series.

The Tampa Bay Rays were established in 1998. They haven't won the World Series yet, but they made it there in 2008.

The Arizona Diamondbacks were established in 1998. Three years later, they won the World Series.

The Colorado Rockies were established in 1993, and in 2007, they made it to, and lost the World Series.

 

The Milwaukee Brewers franchise was established in 1969 as the Seattle Pilots. They moved to Milwaukee. The team made it to the World Series in 1982. That is going on 32 years ago. Hell, until 2007, it had been forever since we even made it to the playoffs.

 

Adambr2 made a post last night that sums this franchise's entire pathetic history up:

 

I was talking to a friend of mine back in June. He's a casual observer at best. He couldn't name 5 Brewers. When I discussed the improved rotation, the lights out bullpen, and MVP candidates in our lineup to justify how this team might actually be for real, he simply said, "No, its the Brewers, they'll choke."

 

Doesn't know a thing about the team. But he was right.

 

And that, my friends, in a nutshell, is what people think of our team. They think the Brewers are a loser franchise.

 

And though it pains me to say it, they're right. Ya, it's been a really long time since the Chicago Cubs have won a World Series. It will be 106 years when the 2014 World Champs are crowned. But at least they have won a World Series. Two, actually. And when I look at the young talent the Cubs have, and compare it to the young talent we have, I'd bet good money the Cubs will win it all again before we win one. I would bet a lot of money.

 

We say we don't like losing. But we have come to accept it. And I don't see a lot from the top that the loser mentality this franchise has is going to change anytime soon.

 

I believe Mark Attanasio wants to win deep down. I do. I think he is a good man. I thank him for buying this franchise, and for increasing the payroll so we can be competitive.

 

But if there is one thing we have learned in the past few years, a team doesn't guarantee itself a World Series by spending a lot of money. I believe that great teams are built through the draft. The core of great teams "grow up" together, if you will. Those players get drafted by, and climb through the minors, and make it to their Major League Team, together. We had a nice core that got close. We knew that core wasn't going to stick together, and we took our shot, and missed. But when I look at this team now, and the organizational talent as a whole, I don't know what we have from top to bottom. We have what I think will be some nice pieces on the way. I think, too, some of those pieces are going to be nicer than those who do talent evaluations and prognostications will admit to. But for the most part, the talent we've developed have been hitters that could generate power. Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, JJ Hardy, Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks could all hit the ball a country mile. They've never had trouble hitting the ball out of the park when they've been healthy. But there are times when a team's offense has to do other things besides hit the ball a country mile. There are times a team needs to manufacture runs, and protect the runs they do have, in order to win. And here we are at the end of the 2014 season, and I don't think we've improved at all at doing the things that we need to do to be successful long term as a franchise.

 

We went 32 years without having a single Gold Glove winner! Now, Gold Glove Awards are usually given to players who are very good defensively. Occasionally, they get into the hands of people who really aren't that great with the glove. Derek Jeter comes to mind. I've never seen him as anything more than average at best defensively. Dependable, not flashy, and lacking in range. Yet he has five Gold Gloves at short. Dr. Michael Hoban, PhD, a professor of mathematics that has applied advanced metrics to fielding, determined in his research that in 2002, Derek Jeter was the worst defensive shortstop in baseball. That was 12 years ago, and two years before Jeter would go on a run of winning five Gold Gloves in an eight year span. But the lack of Gold Glove Awards over that three decade plus span is indicative of a great problem with the Brewers. Generally speaking, the Brewers are not a good defensive baseball team. Generally speaking, the Brewers, year in and year out, are not a fundamentally sound baseball team. This isn't directed at any one man. This is a failure on many different levels. It is a failure on Doug Melvin's part. The players he drafts do not generally profile well defensively. And when we get these players, we certainly are not "coaching them up". If you look at the top 20 Brewer prospects on MLB.com, and go back season by season for the last decade, there might be two players that have average, or above average defensive upside from that whole lot. Typically, we have drafted players with a lot of power, and hitting ability. There have been few guys that wowed you with their athleticism, or speed, or sheer defensive instincts. Strong defense helps teams protect leads. Fundamentals like hit and run, and bunting, and stealing bases efficiently--we have lacked these basic baseball fundamentals. Year in, and year out, we have not been able to get a bunt down when we needed to. Look at our offense now. We have a bunch of hitters who will go up there swinging at pitches that are in the dirt. Over and over again. Hitters swinging for the fences when a single would work wonders, and move the runners up. Pitchers don't have to work hard when they face us because we will often get ourselves out. Why should they throw strikes when we will swing--and miss--at balls?

 

We haven't played defense well. We haven't developed pitchers well. Without pitching and defense, we cannot beat the best teams in baseball.

 

We're at the point where Mark Attanasio needs to do a complete overhaul of the franchise. This current group has had its chance, and they have not gotten it done. Nobody has confidence in Ron Roenicke. Our coaches are even worse. Rick Kranitz, Ed Sedar and Johnny Narron, have been awful this year. And Doug Melvin has been this team's GM since 2002. We've won one playoff series in all those years. I know there are those among you who will say "well, before Melvin came along, we hadn't won any since 1982". This is true. But is winning one playoff series (not World Series, mind you, a single playoff series) in twelve years your definition of success? Remember last year when I looked at Doug Melvin's complete career as a Major League General Manager. Since then, he's just added one more year to his resume with no World Series title, no World Series trips.

 

Our general manager constantly leaves too many holes in out roster. Our manager makes one questionable decision after another. He is a poor decision maker on the fly, and is too reluctant to break from his patterns. I could go on, but I think the point has been made.

 

I don't know who yet will be available, and who would be interested in coming to Milwaukee. But Mark Attanasio cannot sit on his hands anymore. Doug Melvin and Ron Roenicke might be the nicest guys in baseball. I like Roenicke as a human being, no doubt about it. But I want nice guys in positions of authority, and decision making, that will help this team win. And they are not it.

 

I am tired of people hearing the Milwaukee Brewers name, and immediately thinking "losers", or "chokers". But they are right. Enough is enough. What's the Sean Connery line from The Rock? "Losers always whine about doing their best. Winners go home, and ____ the prom queen."

 

I want a well-constructed team that is schooled in the fundamentals of the game. I want a team that can not only hit the long ball, but play small ball when that approach is indicated. I am tired of seeing our starters hitting 100 pitches thrown in the 5th inning, while opposing starters get through the 3,4 and 5 hitters throwing 4 pitches like last night. We need hitters that can work a count. Hitters good enough to foul pitches off until they find something they like, and drive to the opposite field, or hit into the gap. I want my base stealers to be efficient. I don't want my base stealers getting thrown out one time in every three attempts. I want relievers who don't walk batters.

 

I don't want a "seventh inning guy, and an eighth inning guy". I want a manager who is able to determine which bullpen pitcher is indicated to face the guys coming up to bat. If the three hitters are ____ hitters, then I want ____ on the mound, and I want ____ warming up in the bullpen to back him up. And since we are going to stress balanced players in the draft, not just home run hitters, in a few years, the guys that will make it to Milwaukee will be stronger defensively, too.

 

This franchise that I love needs an overhaul. We need a GM that is better at identifying talent, and who realizes there is much more to the game than hitting home runs. That GM should be able to spot pitching talent, too. I want a GM that, when the trade deadline approaches, is able to accurately assess what our needs are, and makes a move to address those needs. I want a General manager who realizes that our young talent is the key to our future, and our top prospects are not to be given away lightly. Some of those guys have not reached their potential. Some, like Michael Brantley, who has 186 hits and is 4th in the American League with a .321 AVG, with 40 doubles, 19 home runs and 94 RBI, and a sweet 6.6 WAR, could really help this team right now. If we'd been able to keep Sabathia for longer than a half season, I'd have been ok with the deal. But we gave him away for a half season rental. Yes, we don't make the playoffs without him in 2007. But would we have made the playoffs with him in our lineup this season?

 

We need a major shake up. The same old same old is not working. Fortune favors the bold. Are we going to be bold, or accept more of the same?

 

Be bold this offseason, Mark. Be bold. Refuse to accept mediocrity any longer. Pull out your checkbook, find a manager and a general manager that you respect, and acquire their services. Do whatever it takes within the laws the league has set forth. Find us a real manager. Somebody with some gravitas. Somebody with some balls. Somebody with vision. Find us a general manager that thinks outside the box when needed. Find us a general manager who can identify where the problems lie, and identify how to fix those problems. Make the Brewers a contender, not just for one season, but for the long term.

 

You can do this. Use the same instincts you employed to make your millions to turn this franchise around. We have filled the seats at Miller Park year in, year out. Those of us who cannot travel have supported the Brewers from afar. I buy the MLB.tv every year to see Brewer games. I will continue to do so. But now it's time for you to impress me. Making the playoffs every couple of years was the bar. Now it's no longer enough.

 

Now it is no longer enough.

[The stache]

I want to repost an analysis I did of Doug Melvin's teams. This originally appeared in logan82's excellent thread General Thoughts on the Franchise, which was posted on May 23, 2013. Doug Melvin has now been an Assistant General Manager, or a General Manager for 27 seasons. In those 27 years, his teams have won one playoff series.

 

Here's what I posted last May:

 

After some pretty in-depth examination of the entire Milwaukee Brewers organization (including comparisons to our divisional opponents), I think the franchise as a whole is in serious trouble, and in need of an immediate, major overhaul. If several drastic changes are not made soon, the Brewers could very easily revert to where they were from 1993 to 2006, when they did not have a single winning season.

 

The problem starts at the very top with Doug Melvin. After a stint as assistant scouting director with the New York Yankees, Melvin's first managerial position would come with the Baltimore Orioles. Melvin served as special assistant to GM Roland Hemond in 1987, then as Baltimore's assistant general manager and director of player development from 1988 to 1993. During this time, the Orioles compiled a 525-607 record, and never made the playoffs. When looking back at this period, a pattern that would become all too familiar is first apparent. Baltimore as a team stressed offense over pitching.

 

http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/4769/melvinagm.png

Melvin's record as assistant general manager, and director of player development with the Baltimore Orioles.

 

In 1989, Melvin's second season as assistant general manager and director of player development, the Orioles were 5th in the Majors in runs scored, and 20th in runs allowed (out of 26 teams). In three of the last five years Melvin was with the Orioles, the team's offense finished in the top ten in runs scored. The best the Oriole pitching staff performed was in 1992, when they finished 16th in the Major Leagues in ERA (out of 26 teams). Now, I have separated these figures from Melvin's time as GM because while highly influential, Melvin did not have the final say on roster decisions. He was, after all, only the assistant GM.

 

In 1994, Doug Melvin began an eight year stint as general manager of the Texas Rangers. During this time, the Rangers made the playoffs three times, yet never fielded a true contender for the World Series title, again, because their pitching did not measure up. The Rangers under Melvin stressed hitting over pitching. Living in the Dallas area since 1989, I have witnessed Melvin's philosophy up close. Six times in eight seasons the Rangers finished in the top ten in runs scored, and they finished in the top 15 (or, top half) every single season. Comparatively, the Rangers pitching staff never once finished in the top 15 in the Majors. In 1998 and 1989, the Rangers made the playoffs despite finishing 26th and 24th in runs allowed. In his final two seasons as the GM in Texas, the Ranger pitching staff finished dead last in the Majors in ERA.

 

After serving as a consultant to the Boston Red Sox in 2002, Doug Melvin was hired on as general manager of the Milwaukee Brewers. Barring a major comeback this season, the Brewers will have made the postseason twice in eleven seasons. Again, the Brewers franchise has been constructed with an "offense first" mentality. Between 2007 and 2012, the Brewers as a franchise finished in the top half of all Major League teams in runs scored (except for 2008, when they finished 17th of 30 teams). When compared to other National League teams (who as a rule score less frequently than American League teams as they do not utilize a designated hitter), the Brewers finished in the top third in runs scored each season (except for 2008). The Brewers' pitching staff, however, has been a different story. The Brewers have had very poor pitching overall during Melvin's tenure, despite making trades for several top-flight starters. The 2008 staff was a notable exception, as Milwaukee finished 4th in the Majors in ERA. However, that number is somewhat misleading. The team's ERA was lowered because of the trade for C.C. Sabathia (the 2007 AL Cy Young Award winner), who for his half a season in Milwaukee put up absolutely dominant numbers. Sabathia's ERA while with the Brewers was 1.65, lowering the team's ERA to 3.85 ERA overall. Without Sabathia, the team's ERA would have been 4.07, which would have placed them 13th in the Majors. Still good, but nowhere near the top. The next season, the Brewers without Sabathia (or Ben Sheets) fell to 26th in the Majors in ERA. Since 2008, when the Brewers made the playoffs for the first time since 1982, the Milwaukee has finished 26th in the Majors in team ERA in 2009, 26th in 2010, 9th in 2011, 22nd in 2012, and are currently 25th in 2013.

 

http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/295/melvingm.png

Doug Melvin's record as general manager with the Texas Rangers and Milwaukee Brewers.

 

In twenty-six years as either an assistant general manager, or general manager, Doug Melvin's teams have made the playoffs five times, winning one series, when the Brewers beat the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2011. Melvin's squads are 1-5 overall in playoff series, and 7-18 in postseason games. Melvin's lack of success can be directly tied to a failure to draft and develop quality pitching.

 

Here is a record of the pitchers that have been drafted in the first five rounds under Doug Melvin (plus any others with substantial MLB service time), either as an assistant gm, or general manager (note: DNP=did not, or has not yet played a game in the Majors):

 

Baltimore Orioles

1988: Gregg Olson (40-39, 3.46 ERA, 217 sv), Arthur Rhodes (87-70, 4.08 ERA, 30 sv), Stacy Jones (6 games, 3.46 ERA)

1989: Ben McDonald (79-70, 3.91 ERA), Tommy Taylor (DNP), Eric Alexander (DNP), Matt Anderson (DNP)

1990: *Mike Mussina (270-153, 3.68 ERA), Eric Schullstrom (46 games, 6.00 ERA), Jeff Williams (DNP), Bobby Chouinard (11-8, 4.57 ERA, 111 games)

1991: Vaughn Eshelman (15-9, 6.07 ERA, 83 games), Jimmy Haynes (63-89, 5.37 ERA, 227 games. 7th round), Rick Krivda (11-16, 5.57 ERA, 72 games. 23rd round)

1992: Brian Sackinsky (3.86 ERA, 3 games), Scott Klingenbeck (5-8, 6.91 ERA, 39 games), Garrett Stephenson (39-39, 4.55 ERA, 123 games, 18th round), Joey Dawley (0-0, 10.91 ERA, 8 games, 28th round)

1993: Jay Powell (36-23, 4.17 ERA, 22 saves, 512 games), Rocky Coppinger (17-11, 5.47 ERA, 82 games, 19th round)

* Mussina was originally drafted by the Orioles in the 11th round of the 1987 amateur draft, but did not sign.

 

Texas Rangers

1994: Dan Hower (DNP), Jim Brower (33-32, 4.67 ERA, 354 games. 6th round), Scott Stewart (11-6, 3.99 ERA, 214 games, 20th round)

1995: Jonathan Johnson (2-4, 6.63 ERA, 42 games), Ryan Dempster (126-129, 4.34 ERA, 557 games), Ryan Glynn (9-20, 6.24, 52 games), Danny Kolb (11-23, 4.36 ERA, 290 games, 6th round), Brandon Knight (1-0, 8.62 ERA, 15 games, 14th round)

1996: R.A. Dickey (65-61, 4.01, 248 games), Sam Marsonek (1 game), Corey Lee (0-1, 27.00 ERA), Doug Davis (92-108, 4.44 ERA, 306 games, 10th round), Mark Hendrickson (58-74, 5.03 ERA, 328 games, 19th round), Joe Beimel (24-32, 4.21 ERA, 567 games, 26th round)

1997: Chris Tynan (DNP), Dave Elder (1-3, 4.62 ERA, 19 games)

1998: Barry Zito (163-135, 3.93 ERA, 409 games, did not sign), Ryan Dittfurth (DNP)

1999: Colby Lewis (44-44, 4.76 ERA, 152 games), David Mead (DNP), Nick Regelio (1-6, 5.35 ERA, 24 games), Andy Cavazos (0-0, 10.35 ERA, 17 games), Victor Hillaert (DNP), Aaron Harang (106-109, 4.26 ERA, 305 games, 6th round), Dennis Sarfate (5-4, 4.53 ERA, 92 games, 15th round), Noah Lowry (40-31, 4.03 ERA, 106 games, 19th round)

2000: Chad Hawkins (DNP), Randy Truselo (DNP), Chris Russ (DNP), Greg Runser (DNP), Virgil Vasquez (2-6, 6.60 ERA, 19 games, 7th round), Nick Masset (16-14, 3.78 ERA, 308 games, 8th round), A.J. Murray (2-2, 4.29 ERA, 16 games)

2001: Josh Baker (DNP), C.J. Wilson (60-48, 3.63 ERA, 369 games)

 

Milwaukee Brewers

2003: Mitch Stetter (8-2, 4.08 ERA, 132 games, 16th round), Ty Taubenheim (1-4, 5.09 ERA, 14 games, 16th round)

2004: Mark Rogers (3-1, 3.49 ERA, 11 games), Yovani Gallardo (72-47, 3.69 ERA, 161 games), Joshua Wahpeper (DNP), Josh Baker (DNP), Kanekoa Teixeira (1-1, 4.66 ERA, 49 games, 31st round)

2005: Wil Inman (DNP), Kevin Roberts (DNP), Steve Garrison (1 game, 10th round), Andrew Bailey (9-11, 2.44 ERA, 190 games, 16th round), Zach Braddock (1-3, 4.41 ERA, 71 games, 18th round), Jake Arrieta (20-24, 5.40 ERA, 68 games, 26th round)

2006: Jeremy Jeffress (2-1, 4.99 ERA, 38 games), Evan Andunsen (DNP), Mike McClendon (5-0, 3.88 ERA, 35 games, 10th round)

2007: Brewers did not draft a pitcher in the first five rounds, nor has any pitcher drafted in this year reached the Major Leagues

2008: Jake Odorizzi (0-1, 5.11 ERA, 3 games), Evan Frederickson (DNP), Seth Lintz (DNP), Cody Adams (DNP), Josh Romanski (DNP), Maverick Lasker (DNP), Lucas Luetge (2-3, 4.67 ERA, 74 games, 21st round)

2009: Eric Arnett (DNP), Kyle Heckathorn (DNP), Brooks Hall (DNP), Hiram Burgos (1-2, 6.44 ERA, 6 games, 6th round), Mike Fiers (10-12, 3.89 ERA, 33 games, 22nd round)

2010: Dylan Covey (DNP), Jimmy Nelson (DNP), Tyler Thornburg (0-0, 4.50 ERA, 8 games, Matt Miller (DNP)

2011: Taylor Jungmann (DNP), Jed Bradley (DNP), Jorge Lopez (DNP), Drew Gagnon (DNP),

2012: Zach Quintana (DNP), Tyler Wagner (DNP), Damien Magnifico (DNP)

 

The Milwaukee Brewers under Melvin did not draft a single pitcher in the first five rounds of the 2003 amateur draft.

The Milwaukee Brewers did not draft a single pitcher in the first five rounds of the 2007 amateur draft, nor has any pitcher drafted that year reached the Major Leagues.

 

Doug Melvin is a very poor judge of pitching talent, and as long as he remains as general manager of the Milwaukee Brewers, that will continue to haunt our franchise. Since Melvin has been in a position of influence, he has drafted few pitchers that have experienced any success in the Major Leagues. Mike Mussina would be the best pitcher he's drafted, only the Orioles had tried to draft and sign him in 1987 when Melvin was only a special assistant the the GM. The call to draft him again was not his decision. Beyond Mussina, Melvin's most notable drafted pitchers include Ryan Dempster, R.A. Dickey, Barry Zito, Aaron Harang, C.J. Wilson and Yovani Gallardo.

 

The overall talent level in our minor league system is also severely deficient when compared to the other teams in our division. This, too, can be attributed to Melvin's management. The Milwaukee Brewers do not have a single minor league player currently ranked in the top 100 (MLB.com, or Baseball America), and only Wily Peralta was ranked on the list to start the season. We are falling behind the Reds, Pirates, Cubs and Cardinals. The other teams have more young talent, and the talent they have is more highly rated. Baseball America recently named the Cardinal organization as having the best minor league talent in baseball (April 2-16 edition). The Pittsburgh Pirates were ranked 7th. The Chicago Cubs were ranked 12th, the Cincinnati Reds 15th, and the Brewers were ranked 23rd.

 

Top 100 rated minor league talent to start the 2013 season, and their ranking (pitchers in bold)

 

St. Louis Cardinals: Oscar Taveras (3), Shelby Miller (6), Carlos Martinez (38), Trevor Rosenthal (39), Michael Wacha (76), Kolten Wong (84)

Cincinnati Reds: Billy Hamilton (20), Robert Stephenson (56), Tony Cingrani (82), Daniel Corcino (94)

Chicago Cubs: Javier Baez (16), Albert Almora (33), Jorge Soler (34), Arodys Vizcaino (83)

Pittsburgh Pirates: Gerrit Cole (7), Jameson Taillon (19), Gregory Polanco (51), Alen Hanson (61), Luis Heredia (78)

Milwaukee Brewers: Wily Peralta (69)

 

Players that have appeared in the top 100 list within the last eighteen months, by current organization (appearance in elite top 50 in bold):

 

St. Louis Cardinals: nine (Oscar Taveras, Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez, Kolten Wong, Michael Wacha, Matt Adams, Tyrell Jenkins, Zack Cox)

Cincinnati Reds: seven (Billy Hamilton, Robert Stephenson, Tony Cingrani, Zack Cozart, Devin Mesoraco, Daniel Corcino, Jesse Biddle)

Chicago Cubs: seven (Javier Baez, Albert Almora, Jorge Soler, Brett Jackson, Arodyz Vizcaino, Anthony Rizzo, Matt Szczur)

Pittsburgh Pirates: seven (Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Alen Hanson, Gregory Polanco, Luis Heredia, Josh Bell, Starling Marte)

Milwaukee Brewers: five (Jean Segura, Wily Peralta, Taylor Jungmann, Jed Bradley, Tyler Thornburg)

 

While the prospects we have traded away have been a mixed bag thus far, the practice of trading away young talent for a rental of a top tier pitcher for a season or two (or a half season in Sabathia's case) cannot be continued. Because, when those players eventually leave (Sabathia, Greinke, Marcum), we rarely get anything back in return (Jean Segura being the obvious exception thus far). We need to draft, sign, and develop our own talent, and we need to make substantial changes to our scouts, our coaches, and general manager. They are not getting it done. If changes are not made, the rest of the division will leave us behind.

[H4P]

Great post. To build on your point that the Brewers are the model of mediocrity, 2 Brewers reached major career milestones in the middle of this dumpster fire of a collapse. And I found both to be depressing and telling of a franchise that seems complacent with underachieving.

 

1000 hits is a big deal. But I don't think I need to say any more about Weeks to anyone that has watched even a modest amount of Brewers baseball.

 

As for Yo setting the K record, I think it's great and all. But when I look at him, I see a guy who never actualized his potential. I've often wondered how good he'd be if he'd been drafted by a team that develops players well. I know a lot of people will disagree with me on that one and throw stats at me. Maybe you're right but I just feel like-and I HATE to say this-if all things were equal and he was a career Cardinal, he'd have a Cy Young award.

 

And there's Braun. The ONE guy who seemed to be the real deal. A guy you could build a lineup around. But again, as a Brewers fan, I'm forced to ask myself. Is it the thumb or is he a shining example of the effectiveness of PEDs?

 

I am bitterly depressed as a Brewers fan. I'm depressed that they collapsed but I'm more depressed that it didn't surprise me. At all.

 

There's a total lack of mental fortitude on this team. In this organization. I'm sick of it and I don't know what to do about it. I'm going to revisit this thread in a few months and see if I feel the same way. I'm not sure if I mean all of this or if it's a reaction to the tremendous disappointment of this season or a conditioned response to watching them lose my whole life.

[SRB]

We have a somewhat decent wave of prospects in the low minors already. The front office just needs to have the faith/confidence to completely empty the major league cabinet (maybe everybody but Braun so you still have the face of the franchise in the down years) and build toward 4-5 years from now. Flip some players for top prospects in the low minors, have a few (truly) losing seasons and bring in some elite draft picks, and when that class of prospects starts to arrive, then you spend on free agents to shore things up and fill holes. The Cubs are in the middle of something similar and it's working.

 

They're probably not going to do that though, they're going to keep going halfway to try and field a competitive team and we'll be stuck with boring 75-80 win teams that never amount to much of anything for the foreseeable future.

 

Melvin has made some fantastic movies and I don't think he's a bad GM, but I'm not sure he's the right GM for the Brewers. His strong suit is in finding talent off the scrapheap to patch holes, but I don't think he has the longterm vision that a small market team like the Brewers need.

[jerichoholicninja]

I skimmed your post and I agree with 2 things you said.

 

1. This is a loser franchise.

2. They needs an overhaul.

 

Top to bottom they need to clean house. Front office, coaching, scouting, minor leagues. The team has more or less been in love with and produced the same type of players who hit only homeruns, but have no plate discipline, can't play defense, and have terrible fundamentals. I hate to say but they need to poach as many minor league higher ups as they can from the Cardinals and give them boatloads of cash to come and create a system that produces baseball players, not power hitters.

 

Also, I hate to burst your bubble H4P but Weeks only has 1000 hits, not 2000.

[3and2Fastball]

Thank you, The 'stache, for your thoughts and excellent posts, I agree with you 100%

 

In retrospect, several of the trades that have been made have not worked out at all.

 

How much better would this franchise be if Michael Brantley, Nelson Cruz, Jake Odorizzi, Loronzo Cain were all still here? Even Brett Lawrie would be great as a platoon partner for Scooter and playing at 3B.

 

Yes, hindsight is 20/20 but the general premise is that if you continually trade away your top prospects you should have some World Series appearances to show for it. My concern is that if Melvin remains the GM he will trade away Clint Coulter & Monte Harrison for a short term rental of some other "name player" who will help push a fringe team into a one & done in the playoffs team. And it isn't worth it

 

I will always remain a Brewers fan but instead of going to 10-15 games a season I'll continue my current pace of going to 1 or 2 and just watching them on TV until there is a complete change of GM/Manager etc

[superfly]

Let me preface this by saying I don't feel our situation really merits a "complete rebuild" per se. The Milwaukee Brewers do not really have a nostalgic organization (blame the early years) with a ton of die hard fans. Just look at the past week in Miller Park before the Brewers started winning again what happened to the bleachers. We cannot really afford to as an organization go dark for 3-4 years...Attanasio would go bankrupt before he'd get results. (OK-not really, but he would lose a ton of money). We aren't the Cubs, Red Sox, etc who have thousands upon thousands of die hard fans who will blindly support through bad times. We must field a competitive team in order to keep the masses entertained. Miller Park isn't getting any younger either, we're approaching the 2nd half of its usefulness if not already in it.

 

Everybody loves to talk about how the Cubs appear to have a bright future. I think what they are doing is nice, but it would not surprise me if a few of these elite prospects didn't pan out in the end. Baez namely can hit it a mile, but if he doesn't fix his plate discipline he is a 2B version of Mark Reynolds. Let's look at another team in the Midwest who always has "elite" prospects abound, but nothing ever seems to come from it...the Minnesota Twins.

 

This organization needs to develop a policy of looking a year or two into the future at every position. We did not do this with Prince Fielder, instead we trusted a "good prospect" in Mat Gamel and we have had a black hole there ever since. We are doing it once again with Aramis Ramirez, and we are backed into a corner right now because of it. If we do not pick up an aging Ramirez's option for next year, we have yet another black hole with no immediate-mid term future. We ARE pretty set at OF if we keep Parra, I feel good about that part of our team. I would even suggest there is an opportunity to trade Gomez at his peak and start Parra everyday (I don't want to though). That will never happen however, as his deal is pretty cap friendly. I'm tired of hearing about Braun's deal too...it is a fair and pretty cap friendly contract for a very good player with elite upside if his thumb is healthy.

 

Factoring in our situation, I think Melvin is doing a good job as GM. His strong suit is fleecing others in trades, but his downside is not fixing black holes in the batting order. I think a game changer for this organization would be hitting on one of these Cuban youngsters coming over, and it is downright depressing knowing how close we were to having Jose Abreu. However, by the evidence of our serious interest in him I think we are going to get one of them eventually. I hope we get in on Yasmani Tomas, we could then shift Braun to 1B for the duration of his career.

 

 

1) A clear #1 Starting Pitcher

2) We need more left handed bats. Having one (Gennett) does not cut it, and we're hamstrung anytime we face good RHP.

3) Take Ramirez's option, and IMMEDIATELY begin looking for a young replacement

4) Johnny Narron fired, employ a hitting coach who can teach fundamentals

5) Do not employ anymore 35 year old pitchers for big dollars (Lohse, Wolf, Suppan, Looper).

6) Take a shot on a foreign youngster as opposed to trading for minor league talent

[Bombers]

Thank you, The 'stache, for your thoughts and excellent posts, I agree with you 100%

 

In retrospect, several of the trades that have been made have not worked out at all.

 

How much better would this franchise be if Michael Brantley, Nelson Cruz, Jake Odorizzi, Loronzo Cain were all still here? Even Brett Lawrie would be great as a platoon partner for Scooter and playing at 3B.

 

Yes, hindsight is 20/20 but the general premise is that if you continually trade away your top prospects you should have some World Series appearances to show for it. My concern is that if Melvin remains the GM he will trade away Clint Coulter & Monte Harrison for a short term rental of some other "name player" who will help push a fringe team into a one & done in the playoffs team. And it isn't worth it

 

I will always remain a Brewers fan but instead of going to 10-15 games a season I'll continue my current pace of going to 1 or 2 and just watching them on TV until there is a complete change of GM/Manager etc

I agree with a lot said but one thing to point out is guys like Cruz, Nelson, Brantley were on the rise in our system and never once talked about as future long term starters. This to me is an important note as it speaks to how bad Melvin and his staff are. We can have top level guys in our system and not even know it.

 

In addition Stache's point on Melvin has 1 playoff series win in 26 years is disturbing.

[H4P]

 

Also, I hate to burst your bubble H4P but Weeks only has 1000 hits, not 2000.

 

My bubble is intact. It was a typo.

[trwi7]

Attanasio would go bankrupt before he'd get results. (OK-not really, but he would lose a ton of money).

 

They make $70 million a year from local and national TV deals before a single fan comes through the turnstiles. Even if they drop to 1,000,000 fans at $15 a ticket and they don't buy a single beer, brat, jersey etc. Attanasio would make money because we wouldn't be sporting a $100 million payroll while rebuilding. Not to mention the revenue sharing money we would get.

 

We really need to get over this myth that Attanasio would lose a ton of money if he decided to do a rebuild. He would more than likely make more money.

[The stache]

H4P, which Brewer got 2,000 hits??? Rickie Weeks got his 1,000th hit. Did I miss something else? The only guy I can think of on our club close to 2,000 hits is Aramis Ramirez, and I think he passed that last season, if I'm not mistaken.

 

I do agree we have some good young talent, and shockingly a few of them have some real defensive upside. Orlando Arcia is the one prospect I hear that scouts want to talk about the most, and I've actually heard some people say they drool when talking about his potential. The kid can hit. He won't have much power, and I think his upside is .270-.280 (maybe higher. Hard to tell when they're in low ball to see what their projectability is). But he could be the best defensive shortstop we ever have. And I've wanted our own Mark Belanger-type, only with a better bat, for a looooong time. If you look at the Orioles in the late 60s and the early to mid 70s, they had some outstanding hitters-Frank Robinson, Boog Powell, Dave Johnson was pretty good, as was Brooks Robinson. And they certainly had their fair share of pitching. Jim Palmer was the great one, but they had a bunch of other guys that spent a good chunk of time in Baltimore while ending up with 180 or 190 wins, thereabouts. Cuellar had 185, McNally had 184, Palmer had 268. Torrez won 185, but he was only in Baltimore for one year, though he won 20 that season, too. It seemed every Oriole pitcher won 20 games at least a few times. But it was their defense. They may have been the best defensive team in baseball history. Palmer won 4 Gold Gloves. Brooks Robinson (16) and Mark Belanger (8) combined for 24 Gold Gloves at third base and shortstop. Then they had Davey Johnson, followed by Bobby Grich at second base. Johnson had 3 Gold Gloves, Grich had 4. Oh yeah, and they had the spectacular Paul Blair in center. There may be others I am missing, but 4 from Palmer, 16 from Robinson, 8 from Belanger, 7 from Johnson and Grich, and 9 from Blair. 44 Gold Gloves! Nothing got through the left side of the infield. All they needed was Keith Hernandez at first, and they would have been unbeatable!

 

Now, the Brewers will never come close to replicating the kind of defensive talent the Orioles had. But I would love to see defense become a big part of our team. Draft good pitchers. Trade for a couple more good, young pitching prospects. And develop a defense behind them, and watch this team go from being an afterthought to a perennial contender. We don't need a team full of Clayton Kershaws. A true top of the rotation guy, a good #2, and some guys that pitch well, and eat up a lot of innings would be great with a tremendous defense behind them.

 

The Brewers have always been a hit first team. Big bats. And don't get me wrong, it can make for some really fun baseball. But when the bats are cold, like they have been for a big chunk of the second half, this team flounders. I don't know off hand what happened first-the hitting going, or the pitching going. But when it became clear that the hitting was slowing down, our pitchers lost control of the ship. And we veered so far off course that we'll never get back. We didn't even need to win the division, though that would have been nice. A simple wild card would do. And there are two of them now. You'd think a team that was 19 games over .500 could get the second wild card.

 

It's realizations like that which tick me off to no end. We can make each other feel better by saying "well, we weren't expected to be in it this year. The great baseball that we played was a bonus, more fun that we didn't expect". Except we weren't expecting that collapse, either. The highs were really fun while they lasted. The lows were worse than any I can remember in a long, long time. Because what happened has left me feeling like my guts were torn out, and there's no way I'm going to be able to get rid of that feeling before spring training. And my worst fear is that we'll get more of the same next year. On opening day, we'll have the same manager, the same coaching staff. The same players, minus Rickie Weeks and a few others. We'll have a new stopgap first baseman until Dougie Fresh finds a solution.

 

I can handle losing if I know that our franchise is headed in the right direction. In fact, as odd as this sounds, I can handle losing now, knowing that a definite change in direction has been made for our eventual long term success, better than I can handle winning some now knowing that at some point in the very near future, the wheels will absolutely come off.

 

My worst fear is that the Cardinals keep drafting and developing really good players. Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha, and Carlos Martinez are all going to be the real deal. Oscar Taveras is going to be our whipping boy. He's going to hit .320 with 25 home runs and 100 RBI every year, only he's going to hit .400 against the Brewers, year in, year out. And Kolten Wong is going to make us envious. And Stephen Piscotty will be the real thing. I know it. The Pirates will keep developing players. Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole are going to be their 1 and 1 a, a formidable duo of front line, top of the rotation pitchers. And then Tyler Glasnow will come up, and give them a third stud. And Josh Harrison, who came relatively out of nowhere, will keep hitting, as will McCutchen. Starling Marte will figure it out, and Gregory Polanco will be the Pirate version of Taveras. And Austin Meadow, and Reese McGuire and Alen Hanson will be studs. And Josh Bell will hit a lot of home runs.

 

Then there are the Cubs. I'm not going to further depress myself talking about all their top 100 prospects.

 

Ok, I lied.

 

Javier Baez is up, and he's going to figure it out. Mike Olt is going to put it together, just because he's due. If his vision is finally corrected, look out. Jorge Soler has been lights out since coming up. Then they have Kris Bryant and his .325 AVG and 43 homers in under 500 ABs at AAA, and Addison Russell, and Albert Almora, who is going to be the team leader, the Derek Jeter of the Cubs. Arodys Vizcaino and CJ Edwards will lead a pretty good staff that gets a metric crap ton of run support. And all those years the Cubs were bad...payback is coming.

 

At least the Reds, the Reds we can play with, right? Robert Stephenson is nasty. He's got light up the radar gun stuff, and nasty offspeed stuff. Jonathan Mayo gives his fastball AND his curve 70 grades on the 80 scale. And an average to above average changeup. They have young talent, too. They're at the Major League level, and have been. They just needed to put it together. You know Joey Votto will get healthy, and come back, and be that same .300 hitter he's always been. Only now Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco are hitting bombs with him and Jay Bruce. Mesoraco has a .900 OPS. He hits some of the longest home runs this side of Giancarlo Stanton. When he connects, it looks like he's swatting a ball with a tree. But the Reds should be pretty good, too.

 

Ok, we all know not all those prospects will hit. A few on each team will whiff. But the Cubs have stockpiled so many top of the line talents, even if they miss on a few, they're going to hit on enough to really start making some noise in our division, and in our league. They will have the money needed to address the rest via trades. I really think the Cubs are headed in the right direction. They have the big hitting bats. But some of these guys have defensive tools, too. Almora is going to be very good. A few of the other guys have big arms. I really like Bryant. #1, we need to keep up with our own division. And right now, at least three of the other teams (the Cubs, Pirates and Cardinals) have much better 25 and under talent than we do. I think the Reds are close, but their talent is just a little older. Not much. Mesoraco can play behind the plate for 5 years, then rotate to first base.

 

We need to be bold, and right this ship now. Because if we're not careful, the other four teams in the central will leave us in the dust. Jonathan Lucroy needs to work on his throwing out runners in the offseason, This division is getting much faster. Billy Hamilton has proven that he can hit Major League pitching. He doesn't have to be a .300 hitter. If he can develop some plate discipline, and get his OBP up, he's going to be a headache. The Pirates are going to steal a lot, too. Polanco will steal 30 bases a year. He's that fast, and Alen Hanson might steal 40 a year.

 

I don't want moves made just for the sake of making moves. We know that won't happen, and I'm no asking for it to happen. I want to see a new leadership group within the franchise. There has to be an assistant coach now, in Tampa Bay, or San Francisco, or Los Angeles, that we can grab that would make a great manager. There has to be somebody who has been working as an assistant General Manager that is ready to take the training wheels off, and lead a franchise to the next level. Mark needs to talk with his people in the Majors, ask around for names, and seize the opportunity.

 

I don't think that Doug Melvin is a terrible GM. If you are wanting a team that can compete for playoff spots, and make it every couple of years, maybe he's your guy. We don't want to be that team anymore. Brewer fans have had enough of that to last us two lifetimes. We want to experience some success now.

 

I want the Brewers to be winners. The game has changed since the late 70s, but how teams are put together is different. It's an international game now. Let's get the best scouts we can buy, and let's get them in places we haven't hit heavily before. The Rangers are finding all kinds of young talent in Latin America. Let's get in there. Let's hit the orient some more. Find me the next Masahiro Tanaka. Or, find me the next Jose Abreu. .319 AVG, 35 HR and 104 RBI his first season. A .979 OPS, and a 173 OPS +. Tanaka, before shutting it down, was 12-4 with a 2.51 ERA, a 7.11:1 K:BB ratio.

 

Let me just repeat that for Brewer fans who are not used to seeing this since Benny hung his cap and glove up. Masahiro Tanaka had a 7.11:1 strikeout to walk ratio. 135 strike outs to 19 walks in 129 1/3 IP. And his numbers drastically went down his last two starts, because his arm was experiencing those problems. Take out the 9 earned runs he surrendered in 13 2/3 over his last two starts, and look at his stats. 11-3 with a 2.10 ERA, 127 K in 115 2/3 IP. His WHIP was 0.9515. He was averaging 106 pitches thrown per start, but his average innings pitched per start was at about 7.25. Compare that against Gallardo's 6 innings per start. That extra inning is a big difference. That's 162 fewer innings the bullpen has to shoulder.

 

We need guys in the Brewer office crunching numbers. Looking at things in different ways, because there are things we see, and I wonder if the Brewers are seeing them. I am not a fan of pitch count so much as I am a fan of pitch count stress. You can't just look at the number of pitches a pitcher throws, and pull them, or leave them in based on that. Somebody can throw 125 pitches in a complete game shutout where they only gave up 4 or 5 hits. And they may have fatigued their arm less than somebody who threw 97 pitches in 5 innings. Why? Stress. If a pitcher is in a tight spot, they're likely overpitching to try and get out of that jam. I've read articles on this, and I think the idea has definite merit. Pitches like a curve ball puts more stress on the elbow than a fastball. The Brewers, if they haven't already, need to start considering things like this, because it sure seems they are using old fashion methods to evaluate during the game. If so, we're at a disadvantage.

[WV Brew]

Expectations should be realistic. There are 30 teams so in a perfectly fair world we could expect a World Series title once every 30 years and a World Series appearance every 15 years. The world isn't perfectly fair. Other teams have much more resources than do the Brewers. So add a few years between happy results based on that. Yes, the Brewers have been unlucky but it's not far from the probabilities you might get by chance alone.

 

Melvin hasn't done that bad. The Brewers were a bad hand by Braun away from the playoff this year (assuming they don't make it). If they had gotten in who knows? The Cardinals won a World Series they had no business winning (Suppan anyone?). The Brewers have already gone away from the slugger concept in their drafting. Other than Coulter and Roache they really don't have many slugging prospects.

 

I have a friend who is a Red Sox fan and he always used to tell me his grandfather was despondent because the Red Sox would never win the World Series in his lifetime. I think he did manage to squeak it in before he passed though. Here's hoping.

[The stache]

 

Melvin hasn't done that bad.

 

Doug Melvin-assembled teams have won one single playoff series in his 26 years as an Assistant General Manager/General Manager. He has had more than a quarter century to learn the ins and outs. The truth is that he just doesn't know what it takes to build a championship team.

[3and2Fastball]

I like 'stache's mention of the 60's/70's Orioles

 

An important factor of the Oriole's 70's success and '83 World Series win was the use of platoons in several positions. Gary Roenicke & John Lowenstein were hardly household names but when platooning together they provided a lot of production.

 

The Brewers would be wise to put Khris Davis in a platoon. He doesn't hit RHP well, he isn't an elite prospect and until he is elite it'd be better to have a LH OF taking those spots vs RHP.... and that is just one example

[nate82]

How to turn this franchise around?

 

What I would like to see in the off season is trade Fiers as he has the highest value and it would be best to sell high on him now than just releasing him in 2-3 years. Maybe some GM out there can be fooled by Fiers and will give up a top level prospect. Other than Fiers you are looking at Nelson and I don't see many teams out there giving up any young talent for Nelson at best you are going to get someone who is 1-2 years away from free agency so that doesn't really help the Brewers in the long run.

 

Gallardo another asset is also not going to bring much in return. You might be able to get a teams 5-10 prospect but I don't think anything better than that is what you will get for Gallardo and the same can be said about Lohse or even Garza.

 

This is getting close to a post that should be in the transaction/rumors forum section but here is what I would like to do in the off season but I doubt Mark A would sign off on this.

 

Braun stays as there is no way the Brewers are going to find a team to take him and get value back. It would be a pure salary dump and that is just not even worth it.

 

Trade #1 Gallardo and Burgos to the Dbacks for Randall Delgado and Brandon Drury. This gives the Brewers a project starter in Delgado and a possible future 3B.

 

Trade #2 Lucroy to the Red Sox for Blake Swihart and Eduardo Rodriguez. This gives the Brewers their starting catcher of the future and another #2 or #3 type pitcher.

 

Trade #3 Fiers to the Dodgers for Zach Lee. This gives the Brewers another mid rotation option with Lee.

 

Brewers 2015 team:

 

C Maldonado and a FA pick up

1B Clark and Rogers

2B Gennett and Segura

3B some minor league guy

SS Segura and Herrera

OF Gomez, Davis, Braun, Schafer, Gindl

 

SP: Garza, Lee, Peralta, Lohse, Nelson

RP: Jeffress, Broxton, Gorzelanny, Delgado, Smith, Kintzler, Figaro

 

This should give the Brewers a top 5 pick in the following years draft though the starters could actually make things interesting and the Brewers could finish at or above the .500 mark.

 

What I expect to actually happen this off season and this will all be orchestrated by Mark A.

 

The Brewers will be all in on Sandoval if Ramirez does not resign with the Brewers it is almost a guarantee right now that Ramirez turns down his portion of next years option and also turns down the qualifying offer that the Brewers will give him. I believe Ramirez wants to play another 2-3 years and I don't believe the Brewers will want to keep him for that long unless the NL magically gets the DH for the next couple of years or Ramirez agrees to move to 1B. I don't see either of those two things happening.

 

Trades I expect Melvin and Mark A to be in on: Matt Kemp he could easily fill in RF with Braun possibly moving to 1B or back to LF. If the Brewers are in on Kemp I wouldn't be surprised to see Davis playing for another team next year. Davis should bring in a decent return probably a fairly decent prospect but again nothing better than a teams 5-10 ranked prospect.

[3and2Fastball]

I could see that: they keep most of the team as is, and go bigtime after Pablo Sandoval & Adam LaRoche, promote the team as contenders and still finish in 3rd or 4th place

[MNBrew]

Reactions:

 

Initial comment: I'm all for whatever it takes for the Brewers to have much better odds for ongoing success than what they've had for most of their history. Ultimately I'm not sure how much change is necessary for that to happen, and how much of it is in the "visible" stuff like GM/manager/coaches vs. in the "less visible" player development work like farm director, scouts & scouting, minor league coaches, etc.

 

1. Braun's thumb injury happened in 2013. He was the most-tested guy in baseball in 2012 and was quite possibly better that year than in his 2011 MVP year. Based on those simple facts, the insinuations that continue to surface that his drop-off is PED-related are purely idiotic and reflect a serious lack of a) considering actual facts and b) critical thinking.

 

2. Nate82, every roster projection post I read from you over the years has us trading at least half if not more of our established players, starting mostly young guys & backups, and it always comes across strongly that you project that young guys will likely all develop & produce better than our established players. I get some of the logic b/c I agree with the premise that the Brewers need to do TONS better at acquiring and developing high-end talent. However, I'm convinced that that as a wholesale approach ultimately doesn't guarantee anything more than what going with a roster like the Brewers did this year would yield.

 

2a. I heard a great commentary on MLB Network Radio in the past couple days about Oakland and their Moneyball approach. For as much as everyone loves to point to them, their vast statistical analysis tactics, and how they constantly overachieve, Billy Beane's well-lauded approach has yet to win a World Series. In the end, if the point is to get over the ultimate hump, they've had almost as bad a time doing it as the Brewers. Since their early '70s run which coincided with the Pilots/Brewers 1st years as an expansion franchise -- so post-1974 -- they've been to the World Series 3x (all in a row) and only won it once in that 40-year span, and haven't been there at all since 1990 -- a 24-year drought only 8 years shorter than the Brewers' "futility" and not really a whole lot more success. (In hindsight, you could argue their '88-'90 stretch was exactly the "window" approach that many posters here argue the Brewers should never ever take.) The MLB Radio guys didn't make the comparison to the Brewers. I did that. But their point was, as I noted above, that that approach doesn't guarantee WS and actually has yet to prove it can work to that degree of success at all.

 

3. Melvin has been cited MANY times as saying that the Brewers do employ & utilize several stats/sabermetrics guys. The notion that the Brewers are totally ignorant about deep stats is absurd.

 

3a. I'm not a Melvin apologist, but I do think he's done quite well in many respects -- far more than not -- and the degree of respect toward him across baseball is well earned and well justified. In terms of fixing certain major holes, on the whole I quite like how he's been able to land some of the top FA SP's in Lohse and Garza. They're far from the #4's some people are inaccurately labeling them as in this thread. Don't forget, the SP's ERA the past 9 starts -- when the team TRULY needing better starting pitching to have a chance to win -- the starters' ERA is 1.53. If you don't have good pitching, you truly have little chance to succeed. For all his inconsistency, Gallardo's ERA of 3.50 reflects generally decent work (of course, there's been plenty of good work and other bouts of total ineptitude). The Brewers have largely had pretty good pitching this year -- yes, with inconsistencies (Gallardo, Estrada, Nelson), but still solid. The ultimate failure of this year is mostly in the offense, a lesser extent in the defense, and a bit lately in the mental. . . . In terms of NOT fixing major holes -- 1B as this year's glaring example -- while Reynolds & Overbay were arguably not the best moves he could've made, he still attempted to improve the position (Morneau!!!). But some deals can't be made b/c other teams aren't just giving their good players away for nothing (prospects or solid Morneau types), and it still takes both sides to make a trade or sign a player.

 

4. I have huge concerns about the mental aspects of this season's collapse -- certainly for what led to it but arguably more for their response to it, both players and coaches. If, in the clubhouse and from the FO's perspective, Roenicke has completely failed in that regard -- for example, that as the pressures of the losing mounted, his decision-making worsened and therefore hindered the team -- then I'd support a managerial change. Yesterday's comments about the Pirates "getting after it" are telling re: the Brewers' players' approaches or mindset or confidence. But . . . So the Brewers aren't hitting many HRs lately. However, they still have speedy runners who can steal bases. Speed doesn't slump. Why aren't they still doing all they can to make things happen offensively in ANY WAY POSSIBLE? If it's Roenicke getting gun-shy, then that's a problem. . . . Garner's teams showed the same patterns over time: early aggressive baserunning, but eventually withering in that approach any attempting very few SBs when everything else was failing. . . . I'm not saying SBs are the key to winning. Rather, the relative lack of them in the past month is just one symptom that mentally, just perhaps, the Brewers' dugout leadership is turtling. I'd hope they're not. But where is the drive? Where is the "getting after it?" Where are the hitters' adjustments (that's on Narron!!!!)? Where is the mental bearing down and focus needed to survive tough stretches? Regression in any of these capacities, let alone many of them, would be cause for serious concern on this team or any other.

 

5. The suck factor on the position player part of the roster seems primarily rooted in the players whose performances were potentially suspect all along, whether based on actual track record &/or career trajectory (Reynolds, Weeks, Overbay) or likelihood for regression or stalled development (Davis, Segura, Schafer, Bianchi). Overall, guys like Braun, Ramirez, Lucroy, Gomez, Gennett, & even Maldonado aren't so much a part of the problem. Arguably they're all still upper-level players who you'd want as part of the core of a good team. I'll put an asterisk on Gomez, though, because he's been extremely unreliable over the past two months, and his plate approach and his clutch hitting skills (nebulous, I know, but in other words, coming through at the plate when the team REALLY needs him to drive in runners) look absolutely terrible over that time. Gomez has improved fantastically over the past few years, but he definitely needs to get his offensive game turned back around.

 

I truly don't believe the Brewers are nearly as bad a team as they've played the past 28 games. But beyond what now promises to be a more interesting offseason, perhaps a silver lining to this horrible stretch is that Melvin & the FO should now be far more likely to go for more substantial or meaningful upgrades this winter, not just a few band-aids (i.e., Reynolds or Overbay types as starters rather than limited-role guys). . . . .So I'm not advocating a total overhaul, but significant & strategic moves wherever they are made, which should be in several places: MLB roster (& at least some coaches/coaching), minor-league talent, and especially in scouting & player development, etc. -- not necessarily sheer quantity of moves, but definitely several high-quality moves.

[nate82]

2. Nate82, every roster projection post I read from you over the years has us trading at least half if not more of our established players, starting mostly young guys & backups, and it always comes across strongly that you project that young guys will likely all develop & produce better than our established players. I get some of the logic b/c I agree with the premise that the Brewers need to do TONS better at acquiring and developing high-end talent. However, I'm convinced that that as a wholesale approach ultimately doesn't guarantee anything more than what going with a roster like the Brewers did this year would yield.

 

Well for the Brewers to get better they are going to have to trade off some of their current talent. The Brewers need to get younger right now to get better in the future. The next wave of good players are about 2-3 years away. Will Gallardo be in the picture when the next wave of prospects hits? Will Lucroy still be here when the next wave hits? Right now the only player you can say for certain will still be with the Brewers when the next wave hits is Braun as he is going no where with that contract and the baggage he will bring.

 

If the answer is no then why are we holding onto them right now?

 

I have no problem with keeping the players we have and adding on. I believe the rotation is fine so the Brewers don't need to add much there even with losing Gallardo the rotation should be fine. Even losing someone like Fiers it should be fine. The biggest assets the Brewers have right now are Gomez, Lucroy, Nelson, and Peralta and then after that you have a bunch of assets that are going to bring you nothing in return or very little to anything unless you want to trade away the future Arcia, Taylor, Coulter etc. for a short term gain.

 

I would be fine trading away Gomez or Lucroy if the Brewers are getting back enough value.

 

Here is another thing I wouldn't be surprised if you here the Brewers as a team in the mix for Tulowitzki this off season. The Brewers have the pieces to get Tulowitzki but should they do it? If the Brewers add Tulo next year would they be a better team than this years and how much better are they going to be?

 

The Brewers are missing things in their roster and it is not just a one or two player fix. The Brewers are going to have to trade away an established player in order to get this fixed. I do not see any other way around this at this time. The Brewers could definitely just stand pat with what they got and add another piece or two but I don't see that fixing much of the problems the team has faced this year. All you are going to get is a slightly better team than what we have this year.

[adambr2]

You could say to the Rockies, "take any 5 pieces from our farm system" and you're not going to come up with enough for Tulo.

[nate82]

You could say to the Rockies, "take any 5 pieces from our farm system" and you're not going to come up with enough for Tulo.

 

I am fairly certain they would take Coulter, Arcia, and Taylor for Tulo. I doubt any team would be crazy enough to top that.

[rickh150]

Thanks for the message 'stache-

 

However-

 

I see your posts as a bit of an overreaction. You wrote the first it appears in the middle of the night, and I know I'm not 100% myself then either. I'd have more respect for it if you wrote this during human awake hours in the offseason or when the Brewers were doing well. We should be just upset with THIS season and only THIS season until it is over, and it isn't over yet- be it close. Why bring up the past or future now? Because you are frustrated like us all over the last few weeks.

 

Next, the Brewers past hasn't been great, we all know that. Yet we have a great stretch from 77 to 82 and would have been in the playoffs several times then with the current system. We've been to a World Series. Yet, how about mention that we are the smallest market in baseball, have had very little tv money comparatively over the years, and have been outspent by nearly everyone over the team's existence. Like I'll argue all MLB small market teams, our success was limited to one or two year bursts because of free agency and the loss of free agents. Yet, over the past Mark A. years, the organization has been very competitive, been to the playoffs, won a series, and has fielded a marvelous following at Miller Park, with 2.5 million plus every year. We've had several young players come through the system, had many timely trades to get them in the playoffs, and have been encouraged many times with FA signings. Players actually want to play here. What a change!

 

 

Some stuff needs to change, you are right. We were a Stupid is as stupid does team this year from top to bottom, most notably Gomez and our batters free swingin and stealin attitude. The future isn't rosy either with the Cubs Cards and Pirates potential.

 

yet let's temper our outbursts a bit

[The stache]

Reactions:

 

1. Braun's thumb injury happened in 2013. He was the most-tested guy in baseball in 2012 and was quite possibly better that year than in his 2011 MVP year. Based on those simple facts, the insinuations that continue to surface that his drop-off is PED-related are purely idiotic and reflect a serious lack of a) considering actual facts and b) critical thinking.

 

Agreed 100%. This is something I've said repeatedly. Braun's drop in power numbers has zilch to do with taking or not taking any particular substance, or substances. Braun's power is fine. When he connects, the ball still flies a long way. His ability to make that connection...consistently...is the problem. That's why he's had to adjust his position in the batter's box. That's why he's been driving more pitches to the opposite field. That's why he's striking out more on pitch locations he used to have success with.

 

By the way, anybody else pissed that Ryan Braun isn't healthy right now? Look at the stats he put up in 2012, and didn't win the MVP. Then, look at the stats Andrew McCutchen put up in 2013 to win, and the stats he's put up this year to likely win it again. Two of the weakest MVP seasons in recent memory. I'm sorry, but .309 AVG, 23 home runs and 75 RBI with 6 games to play is not an MVP season. Nor was .317 AVG, 21 HR and 84 RBI. Yes yes, I know, low .900 OPS, and McCutchen is all the rage. Well, he's going to have two MVP Awards, and shouldn't have any, really. I like him. He's a good player, seems like a nice fellow, and I like the Pirates. But MVPs don't hit .309 with 23 HR and 75 RBI. If that's the best they've got, give it to Kershaw, even though I loathe giving the MVP to a pitcher.

 

Anyway, back to Braun.

 

In Ken Burns' Baseball, I forget who said it, but one of the narrators being interviewed about baseball touched on something quite brilliantly, I think. He said that we played baseball as a child, and when we watch it on television, we think to ourselves "I could do that." On television, the ball appears slower. The stadiums seems smaller. The foul lines look shorter. We harbor this illusion, this fantasy, really, that we could play Major League Baseball, that it really isn't any harder than the game we played as children.

 

So knowing that the game really isn't quite so hard, when a great player like Ryan Braun has a very minor injury, if this even qualifies as an injury, maybe it's more of a hindrance--he should be able to compensate, and not miss a beat. And when Ryan Braun isn't able to put up another 40 home run season, there's a nefarious reason at play. Well, Braun cheated before, and now he can't. So, Braun was really only a twenty home run a season guy.

 

Oh, please.

 

The truth of the matter is not quite so simple. He can't feel the bat in his right hand, or at least the lower part of it. The area between his thumb and his first finger is numb. He's overcompensating, and gripping the bat too tightly, which then causes blisters, exacerbating the problem further.

 

When a right handed batter is in the batter's box, the right hand starts out on top of the left. As the pitcher begins to deliver the ball, a batter's right hand, together with his wrists, becomes primarily responsible for controlling the path the bat takes through the strike zone. Where his right hand was on top of his left prior to the swing, his wrists flip over, as he tries to make contact with the ball, the right hand, is now next to, but in front of the left hand. The right hand is principally responsible for determining where the barrel of the bat will travel to meet the ball. Because of the numbness in his hands, the blisters, too, and I'm sure some weakness in his grip that is not usually there, he is neither as accurate in where he is striking the ball, and I would wager that he is not generating as much bat speed as he normally does. Why? Because a hitter's power is derived from a few areas-their legs, their core (think their abdominal area and their hips. When a scout refers to a hitter's "twitch", I have always believed they referred to a hitter's ability to turn on a ball. Fast muscle fiber reaction), their arms and their hands. When any one of those areas is suffering, the others need to compensate. Easier said than done. Part of Ryan's compensation has been to move deeper into the batter's box. Pitchers can otherwise jam him, while still being close enough to the strike zone to get strikes called. By moving back, though, his plate coverage suffers slightly. Thus, a drop in his productivity. Try though Ryan Braun may, it's just impossible to plug five holes in a rowboat when you've only got four fingers.

 

In common English, hitting Major League pitching is hard. If a hitter has a boo boo, opposing pitchers will find a way to exploit it to their advantage.

 

I would bet money that if somehow the thumb heals itself in the offseason (thumb, heal thyself!), you would see Ryan Braun putting up numbers comparable to what he did in 2011 and 2012.

 

People, myself included, gave Matt Kemp some crap when he wasn't able to replicate his 2011 season. He had a really hot start in 2012, then fell off a cliff. It seems he was just injured that whole time. I don't think he's all the way back yet by any means, but the signs are encouraging. He's hitting .300 with 14 HR and 45 RBI since the All Star Game, with a .941 OPS. Now, his BAbip of .331 isn't sustainable when you consider he's never hit .331 in a season. But like I said, encouraging. Let's hope that Ryan Braun is able to get healthy, and get back to playing as the elite hitter I know he still is.

[The stache]

Thanks for the message 'stache-

 

However-

 

I see your posts as a bit of an overreaction. You wrote the first it appears in the middle of the night, and I know I'm not 100% myself then either. I'd have more respect for it if you wrote this during human awake hours in the offseason or when the Brewers were doing well. We should be just upset with THIS season and only THIS season until it is over, and it isn't over yet- be it close. Why bring up the past or future now? Because you are frustrated like us all over the last few weeks.

 

Next, the Brewers past hasn't been great, we all know that. Yet we have a great stretch from 77 to 82 and would have been in the playoffs several times then with the current system. We've been to a World Series. Yet, how about mention that we are the smallest market in baseball, have had very little tv money comparatively over the years, and have been outspent by nearly everyone over the team's existence. Like I'll argue all MLB small market teams, our success was limited to one or two year bursts because of free agency and the loss of free agents. Yet, over the past Mark A. years, the organization has been very competitive, been to the playoffs, won a series, and has fielded a marvelous following at Miller Park, with 2.5 million plus every year. We've had several young players come through the system, had many timely trades to get them in the playoffs, and have been encouraged many times with FA signings. Players actually want to play here. What a change!

 

 

Some stuff needs to change, you are right. We were a Stupid is as stupid does team this year from top to bottom, most notably Gomez and our batters free swingin and stealin attitude. The future isn't rosy either with the Cubs Cards and Pirates potential.

 

yet let's temper our outbursts a bit

 

We've won one playoff series in the last 32 years, and the man principally responsible for assembling our team, in the 26 years he has been putting teams together, has won one playoff series. Not one World Series, or one Pennant. One playoff series. He's been given the keys by owners 26 times, and every season but one, the owner had absolutely nothing to show for it. And the other time, he won a single playoff series.

 

The funny thing is the second post I made, with the breakdown of Doug Melvin's failures, was written at the beginning of last season. 2013 was still young, the imminent specter had not yet overshadowed us. Fast forward some 17 months, and nothing has changed. Do you see? It matters not when I write it, at the beginning of 2013, or during 2014's death rattle. The end results are the same. And if we have this same clown car running the show next year, guess what, the end result will be the same once again! We still don't have a first baseman. We still can't play small ball to save our lives. We still have a bullpen that chokes away far too many victories, and we still saw Ron Roenicke making the same kinds of mistakes he made last year.

 

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting different results.

 

If we at least made some progress from last year, I'd feel better about things. What progress have we made this year? Our disappointment reached new highs in 2014 because the Brewers teased us for half the season, then pulled the rug out from underneath us?

 

You're trying too hard to paint a rosy picture. It's not rosy.

 

"We've been to a World Series".

 

One whole World Series in 44 years. I showed you all four of the expansion teams that have come into the league. Two of them have won the World Series. Florida, who has no following, and who has their entire roster basically ripped apart and sold off, have still won two World Series. All four of them have made it to the World Series. We can't even get to one. Three decades of futility!

 

"we had a great stretch from '77 to '82 where we would have been in the playoffs several more times in the current system."

Sorry, that's an absurd statement. "We'd have made the playoffs in 1979 if only we had the playoff structure that was in place thirty years later."

 

Really?

 

And those 2.5 million we've been getting at Miller Park won't keep coming if they keep getting the same inept reward, I guarantee it.

 

I'm sorry. I can't be just upset with this season alone. Because the ending is the same as every other one of the 40 + seasons that this franchise has existed. Somebody else took a big trophy home, and we got to sound like the old Brooklyn Dodger fans. "Wait 'til next year." You are accepting mediocrity. I can't do that anymore. I want to see Mark Attanasio make a splash, and sign somebody who will bring this franchise instant credibility. Somebody who will tell us "we are going to be competing for a World Series within the next three years, and here's how". I don't want sunshine blown up my arse. I don't want somebody saying "hey, look how incredibly average the Milwaukee baseball franchise has been for nearly the last half century. Why, we have lots of people that come out to the park....and have done that for like six years straight! Players want to play here now! I say that without a moment of pause, even as I subconsciously acknowledge that Prince Fielder, CC Sabathia, and Zack Greinke each took the earliest flight they could out of Milwaukee! But they really wanted to play here!!!"

 

 

And actually, the middle of the night is when I am most alert.

[superfly]

So essentially, DM and MA need to run out and sign Miggy Cabrera, Joey Bats, or Mike Trout (in a hypothetical world) and then you'll be happy that WE MADE A STATEMENT !!!!

[adambr2]

You could say to the Rockies, "take any 5 pieces from our farm system" and you're not going to come up with enough for Tulo.

 

I am fairly certain they would take Coulter, Arcia, and Taylor for Tulo. I doubt any team would be crazy enough to top that.

 

I think you are greatly underestimating the value of Tulowitzki.

 

You are talking about arguably the best player in baseball at a premium position. These are nice prospects, but very raw, and therefore still much less of a sure thing than a top AAA prospect who has blown through the minors. There's not even a top 100 (as of the last ranking) prospect among them. I would be willing to bet if there were a Tulo sweepstakes, numerous teams could and would top that. I would bet that if Tulo for Coulter, Arcia, and Taylor was an option for us, Doug would pull the trigger within about 2 seconds before they could change their mind.