Winter Weather Thread 2014/15

[Patrick425]

Sorry to be the one to start this thread already in September. However, I have been involved in some casual conversations about how Winter is right around the corner and it seems like every time one of these conversations starts someone brings up that the Farmers Almanac is calling for another cold and snowy Winter. I then point out that this is contrast to what the National Weather Service is predicting (from what I can see from the forecast maps on their site, they appear to predicting a warmer than average Winter for WI). I then sometimes get the "they can't predict what it's going to be like 10 minutes from now" rebuttal. So yeah, they will take the word of Farmers Almanac that uses things like planetary alignment to make weather predictions and has been shown to be no more accurate than just making a guess, and at the same time totally dismiss the thoughts of people who have degrees in meteorology and are paid to study the weather. *Sigh*

 

So, I'm curious about the thoughts of Brewerfan's own weather expert, owbc, regarding the upcoming winter in Wisconsin?

[jerichoholicninja]

You shut your mouth right now! It's only September.

[sauveb]

You shut your mouth right now! It's only September.

 

Normally I would agree with you but since Patrick is touting a warmer than normal winter I am willing to give him a pass.

[owbc]

The latest NOAA forecast calls for equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and precipitation this winter. None of the indicators are pointing very strongly in either direction at this time. I would tend to favor a slightly warmer than normal winter based on the possibility of a weak El Nino developing.

[Patrick425]

I was going by this Nov-Jan long term prediction map on the NOAA website. I realize updated maps are due out tomorrow, but unless there is some new data that came about over the last 30 days, this seems to be suggesting they think it's going to be warmer. Am I reading this wrong somehow?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead03/off03_temp.gif

 

Edit: Also, below is the precipitation forecast for Dec, Jan, & Feb which seems to suggest they think it will be drier than normal:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead04/off04_prcp.gif

[trwi7]

The weather the past week or so has been perfect.

[TooLiveBrew]

The weather the past week or so has been perfect.

I'm definitely jumping all over it tonight & taking advantage to fire up the grill again (for what might well be the last chance I have )

[owbc]

I was looking at some of the monthly maps instead of the 3-month D-J-F winter outlook. So it is correct that they are saying warmer and dryer. I still wouldn't put much stock into it though.

[TheCrew07]

The weather the past week or so has been perfect.

I'm definitely jumping all over it tonight & taking advantage to fire up the grill again (for what might well be the last chance I have )

 

I happen to know that once you actually get the coals started, it's possible to grill out during in a blizzard in January, grilling season never officially ends!

 

I do not however recommend the experience outside of how much it sucks for the grill master to deal with the weather as the hot dogs, brats, and burgers had a noticeable tint of gasoline because it took so much lighter fluid to combat the wind. However since I was feeding a bunch of starved and drunk young men in their early 20s there were no complaints, they were just happy to be fed. Though now that I'm thinking about it again a propane grill would make the situation much easier... I'm old school on the grilling front, I only use coals.

[TooLiveBrew]

The weather the past week or so has been perfect.

I'm definitely jumping all over it tonight & taking advantage to fire up the grill again (for what might well be the last chance I have )

 

I happen to know that once you actually get the coals started, it's possible to grill out during in a blizzard in January, grilling season never officially ends!

 

I do not however recommend the experience outside of how much it sucks for the grill master to deal with the weather as the hot dogs, brats, and burgers had a noticeable tint of gasoline because it took so much lighter fluid to combat the wind. However since I was feeding a bunch of starved and drunk young men in their early 20s there were no complaints, they were just happy to be fed. Though now that I'm thinking about it again a propane grill would make the situation much easier... I'm old school on the grilling front, I only use coals.

 

I have both options... but for warmer, less windy times, charcoal's obviously my first choice.

[Patrick425]

I was looking at some of the monthly maps instead of the 3-month D-J-F winter outlook. So it is correct that they are saying warmer and dryer. I still wouldn't put much stock into it though.

 

Agreed...but A) I like this forecast better than one that says it's going to be colder and wetter. I'd like to think that if they are wrong it will only be that it's a normal winter and not the complete opposite of what they predict and B) my initial point was that I'll put more stock (even if it's still a small amount of "stock") into this prediction than that of the Farmer's Almanac.

[owbc]

Lots of chatter in my department about the warm "blob" in the north Pacific and the non-existent El Nino. The same pattern as last winter is setting up again, at least for now. The first big cold front is coming this weekend. Who knows if that pattern will persist into winter or not.

[Patrick425]

Nooooo!!!!!!!

 

I'm going to continue to let the forecast maps from the National Weather Service Web site give me some sliver of hope!

[logan82]

I'm definitely jumping all over it tonight & taking advantage to fire up the grill again (for what might well be the last chance I have )

 

I happen to know that once you actually get the coals started, it's possible to grill out during in a blizzard in January, grilling season never officially ends!

 

I do not however recommend the experience outside of how much it sucks for the grill master to deal with the weather as the hot dogs, brats, and burgers had a noticeable tint of gasoline because it took so much lighter fluid to combat the wind. However since I was feeding a bunch of starved and drunk young men in their early 20s there were no complaints, they were just happy to be fed. Though now that I'm thinking about it again a propane grill would make the situation much easier... I'm old school on the grilling front, I only use coals.

 

I have both options... but for warmer, less windy times, charcoal's obviously my first choice.

I grill about 40 Saturdays a year. Nothing beats grilled food in the middle of winter. Use a chimney to get your charcoal started. No lighter fluid or gas needed. In the winter switch to grilling things like whole chickens(butterflied or beer can) or chicken thighs. With a butterflied chicken(or thighs) you lay it skin down for about half an hour then go out to flip it. Then check back in about 15-20 min before applying BBQ sauce for the last 10 minutes. Minimal outside time really good food.

 

Edit: You might also consider grilling larger pieces of meat. I grilled a roast one night because I didn't want to use the oven. Grilled pork tenderloin is very good. We like the Door County Cherry pork tenderloin.

[adamb100]

Well so much for that cold summer, warm winter theory.

[jerichoholicninja]

I'm staying in Middleton this weekend while my wife is here for work. I drove her to her conference at about 7:15 this morning. There were snowflakes.

[Patrick425]

Well so much for that cold summer, warm winter theory.

 

I assume that you are kidding. Otherwise, a couple of cold and rainy days at the beginning of October and ready to assume that all Winter will be cold and wet??

[AZBrewCrew]

Saw snowflakes around 2am this morning in Menomonie

[adamb100]

Well so much for that cold summer, warm winter theory.

 

I assume that you are kidding. Otherwise, a couple of cold and rainy days at the beginning of October and ready to assume that all Winter will be cold and wet??

 

Was half kidding since owbc said this winter is setting up to be like the last one.

[superfly]

My mom said they got between 1 and 2 inches of snow this weekend in northern Wisconsin...here we go boys and girls.

[Patrick425]

So, new forecast maps out today. Temperature forecast now calling for an equal chance of above, below, or normal. However, the precipitation forecast is still at below normal:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_temp.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_prcp.gif

[adamb100]

Though I wasn't awake for it, I heard there was snow flurries this morning.

[Invader3K]

Our church is doing a "trunk or treat" event later this afternoon in our parking lot. Not really looking forward to it now with this brutal weather.

[Blancofan1]

I had never heard of the "trunk or treat" until this year. A local church was doing it and the idea seems really logical to me, I just never knew it was even a thing.

[Invader3K]

I had never heard of the "trunk or treat" until this year. A local church was doing it and the idea seems really logical to me, I just never knew it was even a thing.

 

Yeah, it was something our church starting doing three years ago. It was a good fit for us, as we are located right in the middle of a residential neighborhood. We have people come through the lot so the kids can get candy from church members, and then they were able to go inside and get hot dogs, coffee, etc. The latter part was a big hit, given how cold it was Friday night.