Matt Clark: first baseman of the future?

[FVBrewerFan]

I'd expect 2015 to have Clark/Rogers platooning at 1b, Ramirez at 3b, and Rogers filling in 1-2 days a week at 3b.

 

Clark will be on the 2015 opening day roster. By the All Star break it will be obvious he needs to be replaced, but he won't.

 

I can easily see both these things being true. Barring a trade though, not sure there's a better option. I see no reason to bring Reynolds/Overbay back. Let's see what Clark and Rogers can do, you still have Morris and...can't believe I'm saying this...Halton in case of emergency. At least you're spending almost nothing at the position and the numbers will likely be the same or better than 2014 at 1B.

 

Long term, it may be Coulter or Braun but the above shgould work for at least a year.

[logan82]

Count me skeptical that Ramirez will be back unless he accepts something less than mutual option amount of $14 million. While he can still hit, $14 million is a lot for a guy with diminishing power who can't run and needs 1-2 days of rest per week.

He could easily go to Detroit or the White Sox and DH.

[Roderick]

Count me skeptical that Ramirez will be back unless he accepts something less than mutual option amount of $14 million. While he can still hit, $14 million is a lot for a guy with diminishing power who can't run and needs 1-2 days of rest per week.

 

ARam will get the option exercised by the Brewers. He may decline and then the Brewers may tag him and still pay him even more than the $14M. It is either that or the Brewers trade for a 3B or punt next season. And trading for a 3B is easier than it sounds as you need to find someone that has a surplus at 3B and has a need for something we have a surplus of. I don't see anyone else out there for 3B in free agency that is any better for what you would have to pay for them.

[Roderick]

Clark will be on the 2015 opening day roster. By the All Star break it will be obvious he needs to be replaced, but he won't.

 

I don't see this as an issue as he wouldn't have veteran status with RR or a big contract for DM.

 

As for inseason options, the Brewers will probably still have Morriss in the system if Clark takes a swan dive and they want a lefty bat. Otherwise, you could play Rogers everyday. His combined 2014 minor league stats actually have him OPSing .047 more against righties (if I did the math right). So you wouldn't have to platoon if Rogers was able to keep that up.

 

I do hope they give Braun some 1B time in the spring, if they retain Parra, to make best use of their assets.

[adambr2]

I think .250/.300/.500/.800 with 25 HR and good defense is a reasonable projection for Clark as an everyday first baseman. If he can do that, I don't see why he would need to be replaced.

[3and2Fastball]

I think .250/.300/.500/.800 with 25 HR and good defense is a reasonable projection for Clark as an everyday first baseman. If he can do that, I don't see why he would need to be replaced.

 

He might need to be replaced because he is not a gritty veteran.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I think .250/.300/.500/.800 with 25 HR and good defense is a reasonable projection for Clark as an everyday first baseman. If he can do that, I don't see why he would need to be replaced.

 

12 ML qualifying 1B have a lower OPS than that right now. I would love it if its true but I don't think that is a reasonable projection.

[The stache]

I really like his swing from the 3 ABs I've seen 1HR. He actually reminds me of Christian Yelich in the box who's having a very solid year at the plate. Really just appears to be a bigger stronger Scooter. Since I like Gennett, I like this guy. Feel like he can grind out some abs and at least put the ball in play in any direction. Looks far better than Overbay at the Plate.

 

Christian Yelich was one of the ten best pure hitting prospects in the minor leagues before this season. If Clark reminds us of Yelich at all next year, I'd be really happy. I don't see it, though.

 

We're just excited to have somebody who's not pushing 40 who's not completely inept at first base. I hope Clark gets a fair look in spring training next year, because we need an improvement there. We can't go three seasons and not have that position at least tied down for the next few years. Bring in somebody who we know can play first, and provide some good offense. No more Lyle Overbays please. That signing smacked of desperation.

 

If Clark gets the chance next year, have a real contingency plan in place if he gets hurt, or if he's ineffective.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think .250/.300/.500/.800 with 25 HR and good defense is a reasonable projection for Clark as an everyday first baseman. If he can do that, I don't see why he would need to be replaced.

 

12 ML qualifying 1B have a lower OPS than that right now. I would love it if its true but I don't think that is a reasonable projection.

 

On what basis don't you see that as a reasonable projection? He's not been an excessive strikeout guy in the minors, so an average in the .240-.250 range is not out of whack at all with anything close to a respectable BABIP especially since he figures to sit vs. most lefties.. One of his HR was to LF so, he's not purely a pull guy either so shouldn't be totally susceptible to infield shifts. Career wise, he's walked once every 10 PA. That may go down some vs. major league pitching but we're not talking Yuni here. A .300 or even slightly above .300 OBP should be within reach. He's hit with power going back to the low minors. That's fairly rare. 25 HR doesn't seem like much of a reach even if he's platooned.

 

What the Brewers will need to decide is if they are willing to spend either in FA or in trade to get proven talent that should be able to exceed those type numbers, or if they can live with what Clark appears to be capable of.

[fondybrewfan]

Matt Clark should be a fall back for 2015; I would be disappointed if DM didn't make a roster move to get a better 1B in here. Clark might turn out to be a league average 1B; but if DM has the payroll ability I would rather have him bring in someone you can count on. Regardless he looks like he might be a decent bench bat. It would be nice if he could learn a corner OF spot so the bench could be a bit more versatile next year.

[reillymcshane]

I think .250/.300/.500/.800 with 25 HR and good defense is a reasonable projection for Clark as an everyday first baseman. If he can do that, I don't see why he would need to be replaced.

I think .230/.280/.420/.700 is far more likely. But that's just me. I very much hope I'm wrong. We could use a solid 1B for the next few years.

[SoupTown]

This sounds like the 'Scooter is no good, but maybe he can be average at league minimum...' That discussion w as a couple years ago. Well someone forgot to tell Scooter to not go above average.

 

I hope we can manufacture two years of league average 1st base at league min. We may get that with a Clark or Rogers or Morris mix and match over their peak 27 and 28 year seasons

[FVBrewerFan]

I think .250/.300/.500/.800 with 25 HR and good defense is a reasonable projection for Clark as an everyday first baseman. If he can do that, I don't see why he would need to be replaced.

I think .230/.280/.420/.700 is far more likely. But that's just me. I very much hope I'm wrong. We could use a solid 1B for the next few years.

 

 

I think both are valid projections, depends in part on how they use him. His splits were very similar this year in Nashville, but I don't see that continuing at the MLB level facing nasty LHP. If he is protected from facing a lot of LHP, I can see him getting close to .800.

[monty57]

I think .250/.300/.500/.800 with 25 HR and good defense is a reasonable projection for Clark as an everyday first baseman. If he can do that, I don't see why he would need to be replaced.

 

12 ML qualifying 1B have a lower OPS than that right now. I would love it if its true but I don't think that is a reasonable projection.

 

On what basis don't you see that as a reasonable projection? He's not been an excessive strikeout guy in the minors, so an average in the .240-.250 range is not out of whack at all with anything close to a respectable BABIP especially since he figures to sit vs. most lefties.. One of his HR was to LF so, he's not purely a pull guy either so shouldn't be totally susceptible to infield shifts. Career wise, he's walked once every 10 PA. That may go down some vs. major league pitching but we're not talking Yuni here. A .300 or even slightly above .300 OBP should be within reach. He's hit with power going back to the low minors. That's fairly rare. 25 HR doesn't seem like much of a reach even if he's platooned.

 

What the Brewers will need to decide is if they are willing to spend either in FA or in trade to get proven talent that should be able to exceed those type numbers, or if they can live with what Clark appears to be capable of.

 

Not picking on Clark, but (based purely on OPS), that would make him roughly the 43rd best hitter in all of baseball this year - just ahead of Ryan Braun, and right behind Adrian Gonzales and Josh Donaldson. Not saying it couldn't happen, but I don't think it's overly likely.

 

This sounds like the 'Scooter is no good, but maybe he can be average at league minimum...' That discussion w as a couple years ago. Well someone forgot to tell Scooter to not go above average.

 

First, that's pretty much a strawman, because most people didn't say he was no go, but that he makes contact with little power and few walks, and that he would probably have to be platooned. Since he has to be platooned, he doesn't get as many PAs as most 2B (a position that is not usually platooned). He holds a .770 OPS right now, but if you give him another 200 or so PAs against lefties (currently .253 OPS vs lefties), he would be an average-ish offensive 2B.

 

I'm happy with what both Gennett and Davis have done this year, but it's not far from what most projected. Gennett is a platoon player who hits for decent average (.294 right now) with limited power (9 HR, .445 SLG) and few walks (OBP .031 over AVG). That's in favorable match-ups, not facing many lefties. Meanwhile, Davis was looked at as a lower avg guy who hits home runs with below average defense and a weak arm. I thought he'd be in the mid-to-upper-.700s OPS, and could be an .800 OPS guy in his prime. Both players have pretty much lived up to expectations. Gennett is probably a little higher OPS than expected, but again he only has 39 ABs vs lefties (.253 OPS against) and had two really monster months (1.333 OPS in March and 1.139 OPS in June) which may or may not be repeated... at the very least it shows he's streaky for a contact hitter.

 

Gennett and Davis are MLB players, and should be good guys to have around, especially when they're cheap. However, I wouldn't be surprised if Parra is our starting LF next season, with Davis the 4th OF (largely because third base coaches never have to worry about putting up the "stop" sign when Davis has the ball), and Gennett will continue to be platooned. And both of these guys are far more heralded than Clark, so people should keep their expectations reasonable for any of the three.

 

Starting someone like Clark isn't a moment for celebration, it's just a moment to say thanks that at least we aren't spending millions for an over-the-hill guy who won't outproduce someone like Clark will at league minimum.

[JohnBriggs12]

The crop of FA first basemen and/or those who could be had in a deal is less impressive than it was last year. The best out there could be Adam LaRoche, assuming the Nats don't want any part of a $15 million mutual option. But why risk signing LaRoche, who'll want two years, when it's conceivable that Clark could approach his numbers of the last couple seasons for major league minimum?

 

It's not like they don't have fall back options should Clark utterly fail. I'd assume they'd still control Morris even if he's taken off the 40 man. They also still control Halton, and of course there's Rogers. All three of those guys came up as 1B and have had some measure of AAA success. Halton and possibly Morris will be exposed to the Rule 5 draft, so there's that small chance they could be taken, but really it's not like they can't rotate in someone to replace Clark if need be.

[FVBrewerFan]

Exactly. Then, if there's a real emergency after all those guys you still have Lucroy and Braun that could man the position.

[monty57]

Briggs, I agree that Clark and/or Rogers could be our best choice for next year, I just don't want people to get too high an expectation for them. Just like Gennett and Davis last year, Clark is getting his opportunity to shine. Hopefully he continues to hit well, and gives the Brewers an inexpensive option for 1B next year. I think that he should have at least as good a chance of succeeding as some veteran cast-off. If he could post a mid-.700's OPS for league minimum, that would be a big upgrade over the past couple of seasons.

 

Even with Broxton's extra salary, by losing Weeks, Estrada, Overbay, Reynolds and K-Rod, we should have plenty of money this offseason. If they trust Clark to man first, that's another position covered for league minimum. I don't know what they will do with the extra money in the offseason, but it's never a bad thing to have excess cash.

[Baldkin]

Briggs, I agree that Clark and/or Rogers could be our best choice for next year, I just don't want people to get too high an expectation for them. Just like Gennett and Davis last year, Clark is getting his opportunity to shine. Hopefully he continues to hit well, and gives the Brewers an inexpensive option for 1B next year. I think that he should have at least as good a chance of succeeding as some veteran cast-off. If he could post a mid-.700's OPS for league minimum, that would be a big upgrade over the past couple of seasons.

 

Even with Broxton's extra salary, by losing Weeks, Estrada, Overbay, Reynolds and K-Rod, we should have plenty of money this offseason. If they trust Clark to man first, that's another position covered for league minimum. I don't know what they will do with the extra money in the offseason, but it's never a bad thing to have excess cash.

 

http://sportige.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Drew-Gooden-Bucks.jpg

 

(sorry, I just couldn't resist)

[ClosetBrewerFan]

An 800 OPS is essentially the production of Votto, Laroche, Pujols, Adrian G., or Matt Adams this year. A guy who was looking for a job just 2 months ago is projected to have the same production as these guys?

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm on the bandwagon. I'd be happy with a 700 OPS out of him at his salary next year. That's more production than our current 1b. I just think we should temper our expectations

[LouisEly]

Like Gennett, Clark is being set up to succeed this year by not playing him against certain pitchers. That being said, I think a Clark/Rogers platoon next year is the best option because the free agent market is likely going to be thin (with much competition for players, driving up the salaries or forcing longer deals) and the Brewers don't have to trade any talent to acquire them. Other players have gone to Japan and come back better players, and I think that's possible with Clark. He's probably not going to be an .800 OPS player, but he's likely going to be significantly better than Overbay. The addition of Broxton is going to negate most of the cash savings of buying out Weeks, so it's unlikely the Brewers will have a ton of cash to throw at any free agent that is out there anyway.

[JohnBriggs12]

Like Gennett, Clark is being set up to succeed this year by not playing him against certain pitchers. That being said, I think a Clark/Rogers platoon next year is the best option because the free agent market is likely going to be thin (with much competition for players, driving up the salaries or forcing longer deals) and the Brewers don't have to trade any talent to acquire them. Other players have gone to Japan and come back better players, and I think that's possible with Clark. He's probably not going to be an .800 OPS player, but he's likely going to be significantly better than Overbay. The addition of Broxton is going to negate most of the cash savings of buying out Weeks, so it's unlikely the Brewers will have a ton of cash to throw at any free agent that is out there anyway.

 

Well some other guys likely off the books next year: Overbay ($1.5 million), Reynolds ($2 million), Gorzelanny ($2.95 million), Estrada ($3.3 million), and K-Rod ($3.25 million). Now they'll use some of that replenish here and there and for scheduled raises. If they deal either Lohse or Gallardo and don't take back salary, they can be FA players. I think it's pretty clear Fiers has earned a spot in next year's rotation and I believe Nelson will have one too. They could also let Ramirez go, with a net savings after buyout of $10 million.

[miggs721]

Im all for adding Laroche if Washington declines his option

[brewcrewdue80]

I really like his swing from the 3 ABs I've seen 1HR. He actually reminds me of Christian Yelich in the box who's having a very solid year at the plate. Really just appears to be a bigger stronger Scooter. Since I like Gennett, I like this guy. Feel like he can grind out some abs and at least put the ball in play in any direction. Looks far better than Overbay at the Plate.

 

Christian Yelich was one of the ten best pure hitting prospects in the minor leagues before this season. If Clark reminds us of Yelich at all next year, I'd be really happy. I don't see it, though.

 

We're just excited to have somebody who's not pushing 40 who's not completely inept at first base. I hope Clark gets a fair look in spring training next year, because we need an improvement there. We can't go three seasons and not have that position at least tied down for the next few years. Bring in somebody who we know can play first, and provide some good offense. No more Lyle Overbays please. That signing smacked of desperation.

 

If Clark gets the chance next year, have a real contingency plan in place if he gets hurt, or if he's ineffective.

 

Well I do. But again it was based of one game's ABs. I saw a lot of Yelich early in the year while I was living in Miami and just thoroughly enjoy his swing and approach. Yelich has a Batting Title in his future. Just saying that Clark reminded me of Yelich in swing and approach (going to any field where the pitch needed to be hit) Now, I'm not saying Clark will have Yelich's success, as how good is his eye vs. Yelich's? But I feel he can approach some Yelich-like numbers with that swing of his.

[adambr2]

We won't find out much more this year, since RR has inexplicably relegated him back to the bench throughout this cold offensive stretch and handed the reins back to Overbay.

[Thurston Fluff]

We won't find out much more this year, since RR has inexplicably relegated him back to the bench throughout this cold offensive stretch and handed the reins back to Overbay.

 

I don't know how inexplicable it is. Overbay got a start and went 2 for 3 with two doubles and a walk which led to a second start.