The Future

[3and2Fastball]

I would tend to agree that Gennett's .286 BA vs LH starting pitchers points to the possibility of him being a fulltime 2B in the future. He certainly deserves a shot.

 

So he can only hit lefties if they are starters?

 

He, like most ballplayers, hits a pitcher better when he can see them multiple times in a game

[FVBrewerFan]

I have no idea how my thread turned into a Scooter discussion. It is a debate worth having, but it is at the bottom of the list as far as issues facing this team in the future.

 

I didn't even mention Smith/Thornburg. Early in the year we were talking about how either of these guys could be the closer in 2015, or even in the rotation. Just one more example of how things have really changed from April until now.

[3and2Fastball]

I sincerely believe RRR has overused & abused an elite talent in Will Smith. Smith would be much more valuable if he pitched less. He was lights out in the 1st half until he got overused

 

That speaks to problem #1 in my opinion, which is that a change is needed in the Manager. Either they need a new Manager or RRR needs to change his ways or the Brewers need a ton more bullpen depth so that RRR doesn't just take a couple of guys and wear them out.

 

Or, they need more starting pitchers who can get into the 8th inning

 

Something needs to change

[monty57]

To the topic of the original post: the future.

 

I agree with the original poster that the future looks fairly bleak, but I think the course of action will lie on a decision made by Aramis Ramirez. If he exercises his option or if he re-signs with the Brewers, I think the team will "go for it" again next year. They'll have some money with the departures of Weeks, Estrada, Reynolds and Overbay, and have found their closer in Broxton, so they will spend (or trade a SP) for a first baseman and either a RH utility IF to platoon with Gennett, or they will sign a SS and make Segura the utility guy/platoon. I don't think the end results will be any better than 2012, 2013 or 2014, but I think they'll do it.

 

If Ramirez opts out of his contract, I don't think the Brewers will be able to fill all their holes through trade or free agency. That doesn't mean they won't still "go for it," as that seems to be the only thing they know, but there is a chance they would realize they don't have much of a shot. In this case, I still don't think they'd go all out and trade guys like Gomez and Lucroy, but they may trade Lohse, Galardo and Broxton and go with more pre-arby guys (Nelson, Fiers, Peralta, Davis, Gennett, Rogers/Clark, Segura plus whatever they may get back in trade). Probably not a big chance this happens, but it's possible.

 

Whatever happens, they don't have much help at the upper levels of the minors. There is more upside at the lower levels, so hopefully a group of those guys steps forward, giving more hope to future Brewer teams. Any way you look at it, our prospects are not nearly as good as those of our division rivals, and the current strategy of continually signing aging, second-tier free agents isn't working, so the longer we continue on that path, the greater the chance we need a complete blow up, which is a long process that doesn't always have a happy ending. I wish we had done things differently for the past several years. Now we're really in a bind and I don't know if we have an easy "out."

[reillymcshane]

To the topic of the original post: the future.

 

I agree with the original poster that the future looks fairly bleak, but I think the course of action will lie on a decision made by Aramis Ramirez. If he exercises his option or if he re-signs with the Brewers, I think the team will "go for it" again next year.

Unless the front office decides to blow things up, I think A-Ram coming back is almost a sure thing.

 

Here's how it plays out: We'll pick up our side of the mutual option (which is $14 million). If A-Ram picks up his end of the mutual option, we are set. If he declines, the team will then give him a qualifying offer, which will likely be around $14.5 million.

 

At that price (plus losing a 1st round pick), I don't think any team would really want him. The draft pick compensation tied to him will keep people away (along with his age and recent injuries), just like Drew and Morales saw last year.

 

Perhaps I'm wrong. Maybe someone would be willing to give him a two or three year deal.

 

The other option is that A-Ram and the Crew agree to a new contract before free agency even begins. 2-years/$24 million is my guess. I'm betting it happens. I just don't see Mark A. and Melvin blowing up the team. We have no real options in the minors at 3B, so they'll roll the dice on A-Ram.

[FVBrewerFan]

Rogers is an option at 3B isn't he? Not saying I would do it, but you could start him at 3B, Clark at 1B, and Reynolds (or someone) back up both. You're saving almost all of that $14MM, and production may not suffer very much if you look at 1B/3B together 2015 vs 2014.

 

Either way, I don't equate not bringing Ramirez back with "blowing things up." Frankly, I think it has nmore to do with Braun (and to some extent Segura.) If Braun can come back next year closer to the "old Braun" then I wouldn't mind rolling the dice with Rogers at 3B. Problem is, of course, that's a big unknown.

[Roderick]

Rogers is an option at 3B isn't he?

 

Someone from the minors board can correct me, but I was under the impression his move to 3B was more of a move to give him some utility ability to play 3B, not that he realistically could play enough defense to stay there for a whole MLB season.

[monty57]

Maybe someone would be willing to give him a two or three year deal.

 

That's really what I think he's looking at. He knows he's getting older, but has said that he wants to play a few more seasons. He seems to have fallen from his normal .850-.900 OPS self to more of a high-.700's guy and that probably won't get better with age. If he goes for the most money ($14.5MM QO), then he could be finished with one bad year. If he foregoes the highest per year pay to take a 2-3 year deal, then he's guaranteed for 2-3 seasons.

 

The other option is that A-Ram and the Crew agree to a new contract before free agency even begins. 2-years/$24 million is my guess.

 

A good possibility. That really depends on if he is still insistent on staying around Chicago like he was when he originally signed with the Brewers. If not, then he has no reason to sign with the Brewers before free agency begins. Why not just put your name out there and see if someone will beat the Brewers' offer? Personally, I think his best option would be to sign with an AL team, who could be willing to go three years because they can always throw him at DH if his fielding slips. Either way, I think whoever signs him for 2-3 years will overpay for what they'll get.

 

Either way, I don't equate not bringing Ramirez back with "blowing things up."

 

I don't expect the Brewers to blow things up regardless of what happens. It's not the way Attanasio operates. I just think that if Ramirez does go elsewhere, even though the Brewers will have money to spend, the chances of them patching all the holes and put together a roster that has playoff hopes is pretty slim. In that light, I think the best option could be to trade away some of your expensive players with expiring contracts (Gallardo, Lohse and Broxton will all be free agents after 2015), let the pre-arby guys like Nelson, Fiers, Rogers, Clark, etc. play, and see what you have. You save a lot of money, get to see if you can find a "gem" in one of the aforementioned players, and get another year to see how some of the promising young prospects are coming along. It probably won't happen, but to me that's better than sticking Nelson in the pen and picking up another Reynolds/Overbay to block Rogers/Clark.

 

Honestly, the most likely scenario to me is that they lose Ramirez to an AL team, and in a panic make a "splash" signing of someone like Cuddyer. They will still have a big hole at a corner IF spot, and will now have another big money, multi-year contract to a guy on the wrong side of 35. They will once again be around a .500 talent team, which means they will probably miss the playoffs, but will be good enough that they don't get a decent draft pick. Then they'll lose Gallardo and Lohse, meaning that the mid 30's free agent they'll sign after next year will be a pitcher who will help lead them to 70-something wins. Hopefully by then some of our young high-upside prospects will be getting near-MLB ready and we can see an inflow of talent from the farm.

 

So to me, it's whether or not you want to watch below average (non-playoff) baseball for the next couple of seasons and hope the guys in the low minors all pan out to become a wave of prospects like Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, etc, or should we trade a few guys, still miss the playoffs for the next couple of years, and have more talent around the guys currently in the low minors for a better chance to be good then? Neither is a great option (largely because we don't have anyone like Fielder or Braun currently in the minors) but which is less bad?

 

I'd opt for the latter, but I'm 99% certain the Brewers will go for the former.

 

edit: fixed typos

[SoupTown]

This is A LOT to get addressed:

 

Need 1B

 

as we have seen on the trade markets and free agency next year, there is really no one worth chasing... we need to hope that our 27 year old guys can give us two or three years at league min salary and NOT be at the bottom of the league in OPS... so what we NEED we have... Morris, Clark, Halton, Rogers; the way it look now you assume Clark then a rightie (Halton 1st base / of) or Rogers (1st base / 3rd base)

 

Need 2B to complement Scooter

 

not really, but if our back up middle infielder is right handed or switch, then you cover Scooter and Jean

 

Need new SS, or accept a defense-only SS in Segura

 

you accept Jean (he looks better the last couple of weeks) or you AAA him; I dont think it is easy to find better, to I say Jean stays and again, the backup to Scooter is the backup to Jean

 

Possibly need 3B, certainly after next year

 

I think 99% ARAM is back, so you just hope Rogers can be a MLB third baseman, or you pray for the quick ascendance of that high school third baseman... coulter! So you assume Coulter after ARAMs last Crew year of 2015

 

Braun may never be the same player again, and become an overpaid MLB

average OF

 

this may be true, sadly; I am hoping for an .800 OPS guy for the next years; I think the best we can hope for; it cannot be changed, it is what it is

 

Need a closer

 

nope, we have ours for next year in Broxton; Frankie is the proof any guys with even average stuff, with a good, solid nerve can close; you just use the horse you just bought for next year

 

Rebuild bullpen

 

No way... our bullpen is good; RRR just overuses the guys peforming well early; with what we have we have a good bullpen... the problem is have starters (smith and thornburg ANOTHER year in the pen; in 2016 the bullpen needs rebuilding after Gallardo and Loshe are gone and Smith and thornburg and fiers are in the rotation)

 

Gallardo-worth having again next year?

 

Yes, he is a MLB pitcher; if you can get a return in a trade, fine, else he is worth the money

 

Peralta, Nelson- Looked like they may be special, but as it turns out Peralta can best be described as "solid" and Nelson can't get through the line-up more than once or twice.

 

Peralta is more than solid; and what the heck, if Peralta is a high 3s number three starter for years... fine and good; Nelson can use a year in the pen... he will improve from that

 

All in all, I say next year will be so, so much like 2014 re our lineup; we just have a couple young guys platooning at first instead of old guys; our most important money spending will be on backup infielder and fourth outfielder (I really would keep Parra and then find the best darn backup middle infielder you can find). I guess one solid vet bullpen guy (maybe a loogie so Smith is not overworked)

 

Based on the way the team performed this year, Doug and Mark have been proven correct in their team construction. To be real long term OK... we need to develop an ace we can call our own for a half dozen years. We seem to be able to develop lots of 'mid' starters and can find offense... but we need that ace. Where is he!

[bill hAll Star]

1. Hire a manager that doesn't lock into having "an 8th inning guy."

[JohnBriggs12]

Rogers is an option at 3B isn't he?

 

Someone from the minors board can correct me, but I was under the impression his move to 3B was more of a move to give him some utility ability to play 3B, not that he realistically could play enough defense to stay there for a whole MLB season.

 

Early signs are good on Rogers' defense at 3B. His fielding percentage was a very respectable .951 By contrast Braun's FP at 3B in the minors was .899. Gamel's was .886. Mark Reynold's was .881. He's certainly still a work in progress there but if he hits enough, they'll live with it over a full season and more. Major league baseball history is full of guys that over time made themselves into good third basemen.

[reillymcshane]

Rogers is an option at 3B isn't he?

 

Someone from the minors board can correct me, but I was under the impression his move to 3B was more of a move to give him some utility ability to play 3B, not that he realistically could play enough defense to stay there for a whole MLB season.

 

Early signs are good on Rogers' defense at 3B. His fielding percentage was a very respectable .951 By contrast Braun's FP at 3B in the minors was .899. Gamel's was .886. Mark Reynold's was .881. He's certainly still a work in progress there but if he hits enough, they'll live with it over a full season and more. Major league baseball history is full of guys that over time made themselves into good third basemen.

Those are three of the worst fielding 3B you'll ever find. Not hard do better than those guys.

[TheCrew07]

Early signs are good on Rogers' defense at 3B. His fielding percentage was a very respectable .951 By contrast Braun's FP at 3B in the minors was .899. Gamel's was .886. Mark Reynold's was .881. He's certainly still a work in progress there but if he hits enough, they'll live with it over a full season and more. Major league baseball history is full of guys that over time made themselves into good third basemen.

 

I've yet to come across any independent evaluator who commented either way on Rogers' defense at 3B. It's nice that's he's fielding what he can get to but that doesn't really tell us anything of note. Hopefully we'll get more information about that over the winter but at this point I remain extremely skeptical of his ability to play MLB 3B. I watched him quite a bit in WI, he's not a guy who screamed "move me up the defensive spectrum" then but to his credit he's working his butt off doing whatever the organization asks of him.