2015 Bullpen

[Roderick]

What are we estimating Estrada and Kintzler would make in the 1st year of arby? What are the chances that Estrada and/or Kintzler are not offered arby? Any of the free agents re-signed?

 

Bullpen for 2015:

 

Set in stone: Broxton

 

Has to show that they have a pulse during spring training to retain roster spot: Jeffress, Smith, Fiers/Nelson (whoever isn't starting)

 

Injury return?: Thornburg, Henderson

 

Others: Wooten, Blazek, Figaro, Pena

 

Free Agents: Duke, Gorzy, KRod

 

It seems to me that we should only probably assume that only one of Thornburg and Henderson comes back decently strong next year, right? It also seems to me that we need to have another lefty out of the pen other than Smith, so that means no money left for Estrada. That would be six spots. Do the Brewers spend 1st year arby money on Kintzler or go the cheap NRI vet / AAA guys fills the spot at min.wage route?

 

Anything that I am missing? Thoughts?

[MNBrew]

I hope Figaro never pitches in MIL again (well, he could pitch against us). He wasn't stellar last year and he's really been shaky this year, each outing seemingly making that point more and more.

 

Duke, if not overused, might not be bad to have back. But there needs to be more quality depth than it turned out we had this year.

 

There's no great logic behind this, but it would be kind of cool if somehow Kyle Heckathorn gets an NRI to spring training and -- the keyword -- earns a place in the BP. I say this because it would be nice to have someone the organization's invested a lot of time into defy the odds and provide some solid payoff for the team's investment.

[reillymcshane]

What are we estimating Estrada and Kintzler would make in the 1st year of arby? What are the chances that Estrada and/or Kintzler are not offered arby? Any of the free agents re-signed?

 

 

Estrada makes $3.325 million this year. Guys usually don't get pay cuts in arbitration, so you figure $3.5 million. I don't think there's any way he stays with the club. You have other more viable options (Fiers, Nelson, Thornburg) than a guy coming off a bad year and in the last year of arbitration. Marco will be non-tendered and look for work in a big stadium (SD would be perfect) where his HR tendencies won't hurt as much.

 

Kintzler is arby eligible for the first time. I don't think he'll get a ton - maybe $1-1.5 million. Example: James Russell (then with the Cubs) got $1.075 million in 2013 after his third season when he had a 3.25 ERA in 69 innings. If it's $1 to 1.5 million, he should be retained.

 

Those are my guesses.

[JohnBriggs12]

Too early to tell. A lot depends on the rotation. Gallardo might not be back. If healthy Thornburg or Smith could be competing for rotation spots.

 

If Henderson's healthy, then he's back but that's a pretty big if. I think Jeffress is a lock as is Broxton.

 

Estrada could be re-signed but only after he's non-tendered which is a virtual lock at this point.

[JohnBriggs12]

There have been guys who reach agreements with teams for lesser amounts after being non-tendered by the same team. Just because it's extremely unlikely Estrada will offered arbitration, I don't think we can assume there is no chance he returns. It might have to be on a minor league deal though considering his rocky season.

[reillymcshane]

There have been guys who reach agreements with teams for lesser amounts after being non-tendered by the same team. Just because it's extremely unlikely Estrada will offered arbitration, I don't think we can assume there is no chance he returns. It might have to be on a minor league deal though considering his rocky season.

The problem is that there's little incentive for Estrada to come back knowing his role is that of long man in the bullpen. Perhaps no one will want him and he'll take the gig, but you'd think a team with a hole at the back of the rotation would be willing to give him a try. That's probably a much more attractive option to Marco. Next year might be the last time he gets a chance to be a starter in the majors, and if he gets in a good situation, and puts up okay numbers, he might set himself up for an decent payday in 2016. But that isn't as likely to happen if he's in our bullpen.

[Roderick]

There have been guys who reach agreements with teams for lesser amounts after being non-tendered by the same team. Just because it's extremely unlikely Estrada will offered arbitration, I don't think we can assume there is no chance he returns. It might have to be on a minor league deal though considering his rocky season.

 

If the Brewers nontender instead of arby to a player, do they get to negotiate with them as soon as the other teams? I wasn't sure if the Brewers have to wait longer to sign that player than other teams. If they don't have to wait, I would definitely go that route with Estrada and then negotiate with him and see what the markets dictates for him. If the Brewers trade away a starter, they would probably like him as an insurance policy.

[JohnBriggs12]

There have been guys who reach agreements with teams for lesser amounts after being non-tendered by the same team. Just because it's extremely unlikely Estrada will offered arbitration, I don't think we can assume there is no chance he returns. It might have to be on a minor league deal though considering his rocky season.

The problem is that there's little incentive for Estrada to come back knowing his role is that of long man in the bullpen. Perhaps no one will want him and he'll take the gig, but you'd think a team with a hole at the back of the rotation would be willing to give him a try. That's probably a much more attractive option to Marco. Next year might be the last time he gets a chance to be a starter in the majors, and if he gets in a good situation, and puts up okay numbers, he might set himself up for an decent payday in 2016. But that isn't as likely to happen if he's in our bullpen.

 

He's not a guy who'll go to anyone's camp penciled into a rotation. He might find a spot where he can realistically compete for one, but guys like that typically end up with minor league deals anyway.

[Outlander]

Hellweg may be in the mix as well if he doesn't start the season on the DL or removed from the 40 man after the season. A darkhorse might be Strong as he is a lefty and they are sending him to the AFL so they might see something in him.

[reillymcshane]

2015 Bullpen

 

Broxton (closer)

Jimmy Nelson (we'll pick up Gallardo's option and give the 5th slot to Fiers, so Nelson gets a year in the bullpen)

Jeffress

Thornburg

Henderson

Kintzler

Smith

Wooten

Pena (out of options so he has to be kept)

 

Other options include Blazek, Johnny Hellweg (but probably not until mid-season), David Goforth and Tyler Cravy. I could see adding a loogy, but nothing to break the bank.

 

If any of the starters are injured, you move Nelson into the rotation, probably followed by Jungmann.

 

I don't see major additions because the team is currently sitting at roughly $92 million in obligations next year (see below). That doesn't include Parra or Estrada, but does include a couple of other arby players, Kintzler and Maldonado (I'm guessing each at $1 million). It also includes A-Ram at $14 million - but that could certainly change. We have a payroll of $103 million this year, so if things remain about the same, that leaves us with about $10 million to spend. You still need to fill four back up slots for position players, and 1B. Depending on how you fill 1B, you might have some extra cash to add a veteran or two in the bullpen. But that means you're likely going with some rookies at 1B. I just don't see Melvin doing that, but you never know.

 

2015 salaries (rounded to nearest half million)

 

Lucory: $3.0 million

Maldonado: 1.0

1B: ?

2B: Scooter: .5

SS: Segura: .5

3B: A-Ram: 14.0

LF: Davis: .5

CF: Gomez: 8

RF: Braun: 14.5 (this includes a $2.5 million bonus he's due in April)

INF: ?

INF: ?

OF: ?

OF: ?

 

Starting pitchers:

Garza: 12.5

Gallardo: 13

Peralta: .5

Fiers: .5

Lohse: 11

 

Relievers:

Broxton: $9 million

Henderson: .5

Wooten: .5

Kintzler: 1.0

Thornburg: .5

Smith: .5

Pena: .5

Jeffress: .5

Nelson: .5

[gregmag]

Man, do we have some money coming off the books after 2015. If I'm remembering correctly, Gallardo, Lohse, and Broxton (assuming the Brewers pick up Gallardo's 2014 option) are all signed through 2014, and of course Ramirez could be gone after this season. Meanwhile, most of this year's A+ (level, not grade) prospects will spend 2015 making the big jump to AA, which means that any of them who excel there could be in the mix for 2016.

 

If you like stability, then enjoy this off-season, because the next one looks like it could be eventful.

 

Re: the pen, I'm always a fan of looking for free talent. We're in pretty good shape with the guys we have. I could see spending meaningful resources on a lefty who's capable of giving you 70 innings. I agree that Estrada will be gone, which means we'll need to identify a long man.

 

Jeffress will get the main setup gig to audition for 2016 closer, right?

[reillymcshane]

 

If you like stability, then enjoy this off-season, because the next one looks like it could be eventful.

 

 

I think you nailed it. I don't expect a lot out of the Brewers as long as they bring back A-Ram. After that, it's find a 1B and add some depth.

[JohnBriggs12]

reillymcshane,

 

You really want to list Wooten for 2015? His ERA at AAA was 5.82. His 40 man spot would seem to me to be in serious jeopardy.

[reillymcshane]

reillymcshane,

 

You really want to list Wooten for 2015? His ERA at AAA was 5.82. His 40 man spot would seem to me to be in serious jeopardy.

I think Wooten could be an option in 2015. Looking at his major league numbers in 2014, he's sitting on a not very impressive 4.72 ERA. But if you look closer, he's improved his strikeout rate and walk rate over last year. Plus he's only given up 1 HR. His FIP is at 2.67. He's got given up a .380 average on balls hit in play. That's really, really high.

 

I'm not saying Wooten is anything great, but if he's your 6/7 man in the pen, you might be okay.

 

I'll also admit that he doesn't have the best tools, and could fall off the face of the earth if he has any sort of issue. He's giving up a lot of hits - both in the majors and minors. So that's a red flag. But I think there's still the potential to help out.

[MNBrew]

Wooten would have to pitch like he did in 2013 to have any chance of making the 2015 bullpen. To my thinking, the positive peripherals cited about Wooten here are like whip cream on poop: You can't disguise the fact that he's not been good at all.

 

I still want to think Wooten could be okay, but the proof is in the pudding and absolutely nothing about his performance gives me cause for optimism. Short of a major turnaround in what are sure to be limited chances in these last 11 games, my feeling about Wooten is approaching the way I already feel about Figaro.

[HiAndTight]

Man, do we have some money coming off the books after 2015. If I'm remembering correctly, Gallardo, Lohse, and Broxton (assuming the Brewers pick up Gallardo's 2014 option) are all signed through 2014, and of course Ramirez could be gone after this season. Meanwhile, most of this year's A+ (level, not grade) prospects will spend 2015 making the big jump to AA, which means that any of them who excel there could be in the mix for 2016.

 

If you like stability, then enjoy this off-season, because the next one looks like it could be eventful.

 

Re: the pen, I'm always a fan of looking for free talent. We're in pretty good shape with the guys we have. I could see spending meaningful resources on a lefty who's capable of giving you 70 innings. I agree that Estrada will be gone, which means we'll need to identify a long man.

Jeffress will get the main setup gig to audition for 2016 closer, right?

 

 

I think Duke for a 3 year 12 million dollar deal is very likely. K-rod is gone unless other teams look at this year as an aberration and is willing to come back for ~5 million, but I still think you'd be talking about 3 years and I wouldn't want to do that.

 

Like every BP, next years could be the strongest we've had in a while, or it could be a bad one.

 

If Henderson gets healthy and returns to form and Broxton repeats his performance this year, those two plus Jeffress and Thornburg give you 4 really good right handed relievers. Smith is a really good lefty in the pen, Duke is pretty good vs both lefties and righties and then you've got a lot of possibilities for the 7th spot, namely Nelson or Fiers.

 

It's just as possible that Broxton blows up next year, Thornburg and Henderson aren't healthy, Duke leaves via free agency.

But I'll still hope for a Henderson/Broxton/Jeffress/Thornburg/Smith/Duke/ BP with the final spot going to whomever has the strongest spring or doesn't get the last spot in the rotation. I do hope that Yo is traded as I think you could get a strong prospect for him.

We have a payroll of $103 million this year, so if things remain about the same, that leaves us with about $10 million to spend.

 

Our payroll has been closer to 110 this year, leaving out the insurance policies and other figures MLB uses to calculate payroll. Still very little flexibility with the commitments have next year assuming both Gallardo and Aram are back...and I think the Brewers would take both back.

 

 

So we'd have to hope that everything that went right health wise this year went well next year as well, while also hoping that Segura bounces back with a big year, and maybe Braun can get healthy. I see a few positions we can reasonably hope for more from next year, LF, SS, RF and the BP, yet several positions we could see a big drop off. 3rd, 2nd if Gennett faces lefties all year long, C(even as good as Luc is, it'd be hard to duplicate this past year), CF.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see the same starting 8 that finish this year(assuming Clark finishes this year starter) start 2015, and almost the same rotation.

[yoshii8]

I think it's Broxton, Smith, Jeffress, Thornburg, Henderson, and I could see one or both of Duke/Gorzelanny returning.

[TURBO]

Is Gorzelanny still on the team?

[fondybrewfan]

Krod could very well return too; at least it wouldn't surprise me. Maybe someone is willing to give him a multi year deal as a closer but I doubt it. He might come back at a reasonable price. The key next year is the health of Thornburg and Henderson. If we had those guys the entire year this year things might have ended up differently.

[JohnBriggs12]

Krod could very well return too; at least it wouldn't surprise me. Maybe someone is willing to give him a multi year deal as a closer but I doubt it. He might come back at a reasonable price. The key next year is the health of Thornburg and Henderson. If we had those guys the entire year this year things might have ended up differently.

 

I see Thornburg returning to starter role in Colorado Springs to start the year, then be in the mix to replace either Lohse or Gallardo if and when they are dealt in July. That's assuming he has an option left.

[TheCrew07]

I think assuming that either Thornburg or Henderson will actually pitch next year is taking a big leap. I'm holding out some hope, but I'd feel better if both guys would have just had surgery and were already actively working on their rehab.

[Outlander]

I am also not optimistic about Thornburg or Henderson being in the bullpen next year. With Thornburg if he becomes healthy enough to pitch I hope he is a starter in AAA and is given an opportunity to start at the big league level when spots open up during 2016. Less optimistic about Henderson, maybe a DFA guy if the Brewers need the 40 man spot this off season.

[jerichoholicninja]

The fact that Henderson just sort of randomly went on the DL and then couldn't pitch a rehab assignment tells me he's pretty much done. Not that I'm surprised, I thought his lack of throwing strikes would put him out before an injury.

[TURBO]

Francisco Rodriguez said this weekend that he would like to re-sign with the Brewers.

 

But the Brewers probably don't have the means to spend big on a closer, and K-Rod should command some lucrative multi-year offers on the open market this winter after posting a 3.04 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 73/18 K/BB ratio, and 44 saves in 68 innings this season. "I definitely know where I want to be," he told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "I want to be here. But it is not my decision. There are a lot of things the front office has to do over the course of the winter. They know how I feel. My heart is going to always be here."

 

Source: Milwaukee Journal SentinelSep 29 - 9:23 AM

 

If his heart is truly in Milwaukee, he will sign an extremely team friendly deal, if he bolts elsewhere for the money, we will know that his heart was with the money all along... I do believe he wants to be back with the Brewers though...

 

To be honest, I'm hoping the twenty minutes of terror is done in Milwaukke, unless we get him REALLY cheap...

[jerichoholicninja]

I know he was good at giving up HR's but a .99 WHIP and only 18 walks in 68 innings? I wouldn't mind having that back as long as the deal is right.