SS in 2015

[Roderick]

I know it's not going to happen but I was wondering about Hanley Ramirez. He could play SS for a few years and then move to 3B. Sort of solves two problems at once. I know the Brewers couldn't compete with the offers he'll be getting but I was really surprised that he's 30. I would have guessed he was 28 or so.

 

I have no idea if he would be a fit or not, but the Brewers could compete with the Dodgers money if they traded away one of Gallardo/Lohse/Garza and go cheap with 1B. That, and you figure he is replacing ARam (saving $) in 2016, the money is there. You are obviously playing with fire with the starting staff, but I think you need to take a risk if you want to get over the hump.

[3and2Fastball]

I know it's not going to happen but I was wondering about Hanley Ramirez. He could play SS for a few years and then move to 3B. Sort of solves two problems at once. I know the Brewers couldn't compete with the offers he'll be getting but I was really surprised that he's 30. I would have guessed he was 28 or so.

 

I have no idea if he would be a fit or not, but the Brewers could compete with the Dodgers money if they traded away one of Gallardo/Lohse/Garza and go cheap with 1B. That, and you figure he is replacing ARam (saving $) in 2016, the money is there. You are obviously playing with fire with the starting staff, but I think you need to take a risk if you want to get over the hump.

 

Hanley is a truly great talent.

 

Something tells me the Yankees will be competing for SS talent in the free agent market. Hanley has earned $15 million+ each of the last three years and a team would need to outbid LA & NY for a 31 year old SS. A tall price and roll of the dice.

 

Personally I'd prefer Segura at $534K and spend that money elsewhere.

 

With a great (or even very good) next 5 years Hanley could play his way into discussions of being a top 5 all-time SS, his career 131 OPS+ would rank him 4th all-time among SS if he retired today, behind just Honus Wagner, A-Rod and Arky Vaughan

[monty57]

but the Brewers could compete with the Dodgers money

 

That needs a big asterisk. They could potentially beat the Dodgers for one player if they decided to put all their eggs in that basket. However, the Dodgers could sign multiple players to monster contracts, whereas the Brewers need to average around $4MM/25-man roster spot, so if they signed someone to a $25MM/year deal, they would need have a lot of players under the $4MM mark. About 6 league minimum guys would make up the difference. Then you have Braun at $13MM, so there's another 2.5 league minimum guys needed. Three pitchers making around $36MM - there's the need for seven more league minimum guys.

 

That would be Gallardo, Lohse, Garza, Braun and Hanley with 16 league minimum guys. Broxton, Lucroy and Gomez take up around $21MM of the remaining $16MM, putting them $5MM over budget, so sorry Parra, but you're cut. We will also owe Weeks and possibly Aramis Ramirez money if they're not on the team.

 

So, all we need to do is find 16 league minimum guys and we'd only be $5-11MM over budget if we decided to get in a bidding war against a big money team for a player :-)

 

I do agree that we will have some extra money with the contracts that are coming off the books. It is also possible that we could sign Hanley Ramirez, but not if we're competing with the Dodgers for him. If the Dodgers or another big money team really wants a player, the current financial disparity in baseball means that we are not in a position to get in a bidding war against them unless we really want to put ourselves in a bad position.

[LouisEly]

JJ Hardy.....come on man! 3 years $27 million.

The last thing the Brewers need is another low-OBP RH hitter.

[sheetskout]

I don't see the Brewers making a big investment at SS with Arcia/Rivera in our system. There will be sentiment to give Segura an extended shot there. We'll call this the first-year-all-star-hangover-effect.

[yoshii8]

I'd like to see Jed Lowrie brought in. Not sure how much he'll get paid though.

[fondybrewfan]

I think they just need a super utility player that can push both Segura and Gennett. I don't know who that would be but I would like it to be someone that has at least the capability to be both an average SS and average 2B just in case either Segura or Gennett flame out in 2015. I don't think we have that player in the system right now.

 

We don't need 2013 Segura for him to be valuable; but he needs to be better than 2014. I also have no idea if the Brewers have any intention at all of finding out of Gennett can hit lefties.

[torts]

I cannot believe people are ready to throw in the towel on a 24 year old SS. talk about having no patience... I mean he's still young, he's the starting SS next season, as fondy said, they need a super util guy to be behind him and scoots next year

[yoshii8]

I cannot believe people are ready to throw in the towel on a 24 year old SS. talk about having no patience... I mean he's still young, he's the starting SS next season, as fondy said, they need a super util guy to be behind him and scoots next year

 

 

I'm not ready to throw in the towel, but I have no problem w/ him going to AAA and refining his game. He had a .592 OPS this year.

[brewcrewdue80]

I figured out the must have trade target for Milw this offseason. Plain and Simple Arismendy Alcantara from the Cubs. posted it in Gallardo's Major League topic. Switch Hitting 2b/SS. He's 22. Cubs have Baez,Russell, to promote in to their lineups with Castro blocking them at SS. Cubs played Alcantara in CF just to get him on their ML team. A place where he had 5Errors in 48games. Not a good sign to keep him in CF. So there in lies why the Cubs should move him. Rizzo-1b Baez/Russell 2b Castro SS and Bryant at 3b leaves him blocked long term. Send the Cubs Yo if they can't sign 2 of Lester/Shields/Scherzer giving them the SP depth they need for 2015 while having the opportunity to either extend Yo or QO him after 2015. If not Yo then Lohse. Either one to get a long term solution for 2b/SS.

[Bombers]

I cannot believe people are ready to throw in the towel on a 24 year old SS. talk about having no patience... I mean he's still young, he's the starting SS next season, as fondy said, they need a super util guy to be behind him and scoots next year

 

I agree and I look to none other than Alcides Escobar and the success he has had lately -

 

Escobar's career has gone like this:

Milwaukee

2009 - Age 22 - 134 PA - .304 / .333 / .368 / .701

2010 - Age 23 - 552 PA - .235 / .288 / .326 / .614

 

KC

2011 - Age 24 - 598 PA - .254 / .290 / .343 / .633

2012 - Age 25 - 605 PA - .293 / .331 / .390 / .721

2013 - Age 26 - 642 PA / .234 / .259 / .300 / .559

2014 - Age 27 - 620 PA / .285 / .317 / .377 / .694

 

Segura

2012 - Age 22 - 166 PA / .258 .315 .325 .640

2013 - Age 23 - 623 PA / .294 / .329 / .423 / .752

2014 - Age 24 - 513 PA / .246 / .289 / .326 / .614

 

So Segura had a decent year 1, great year 2 and a horrendous year 3

Escobar had a great year 1, his 2nd year in 2010 is almost identical to Segura's this year (bad), and then Escobar had a good year 3 and then an awesome year 4. Had a horrible year last year (year 5) and has been good again this year (year 6).

 

Maybe Segura will just have a similar path and be extremely streaky. I am not sure why Escobar is good one year and not very good the next. Maybe as Escobar has gotten older, he has gotten more consistent? (Over the past 4 years, Escobar has only had 1 really bad year, 1 mediocre and 2 good) Hopefully Segura can do the same. He is only 24, had a personal situation and lets hope he can take a hold of the lead off spot next year like Escobar has done in KC.

[TURBO]

I cannot believe people are ready to throw in the towel on a 24 year old SS. talk about having no patience... I mean he's still young, he's the starting SS next season, as fondy said, they need a super util guy to be behind him and scoots next year

 

This.

 

It is far too soon to give up on Jean. All the issues he had this season had to wear on him.

 

I'm giving him a pass in hopes that next year we see what he is really capable of.

[jerichoholicninja]

Segura has only had 3 months in his career where he looked like he belongs in the bigs. He's been rather putrid outside that and unless he makes major changes to his approach at the plate I don't see him ever being an even adequate hitter. I have no problem with him as the short stop next year, however, because he at least has defensive value and there is no way the team can upgrade at SS without spending a lot of money or prospects.

[TooLiveBrew]

Segura has only had 3 months in his career where he looked like he belongs in the bigs. He's been rather putrid outside that and unless he makes major changes to his approach at the plate I don't see him ever being an even adequate hitter. I have no problem with him as the short stop next year, however, because he at least has defensive value and there is no way the team can upgrade at SS without spending a lot of money or prospects.

This is where I come down on it, & by no means does it equate to "giving up on" Segura. I don't have serious concerns that he'll never make the necessary adjustments... I'm very much a believer in his talent as a hitter (I was hoping for him to be called up significantly earlier than the Brewers actually did), and his defense obviously speaks for itself.

 

But for a club that I'm assuming will be looking to contend again in 2015, you have to explore & see if there are ways to make the team better. If one of those ways is to bring in more depth & competition in the MIF, then you'd be unwise to not pursue it. So for an example, if you can get a LH-swinging SS that can hit RHPs a bit & split Segura's time between SS & 2B, I think that's a decent avenue to explore. Even though I believe Jean will eventually be a .700-.750 OPS bat year in & year out, I'm not ready to say that for 2015 he should just be unchallenged for the starting spot.

[JohnBriggs12]

Talk of giving up on Segura is ridiculous. What if the Cubs gave up on Castro after he hit .245/.284/.347 in 2013?

 

Very few guys come to the majors and never struggle. Some guys adjust quicker but eventually good players learn to adjust. It was a tough year off the field for Segura. That was a heck of a burden for any player but especially a young one.

 

When he gets through this, and he showed signs in September, he's going to be an even better player than we saw in 2013.

[BrewersSuperCollector]

Looking at Escobar's 1st and 2nd half splits. When Escobar starts out the year well he finishes well. When Escobar struggles in the 1st half he struggles in the 2nd half also.

[Bombers]

Segura has only had 3 months in his career where he looked like he belongs in the bigs. He's been rather putrid outside that and unless he makes major changes to his approach at the plate I don't see him ever being an even adequate hitter. I have no problem with him as the short stop next year, however, because he at least has defensive value and there is no way the team can upgrade at SS without spending a lot of money or prospects.

This is silliness

Aug 2012 - 209 .250 .239 .489

Sept 2012 - .309 .378 .407 .785

April 2013 - .367 .418 .567 .985

May 2013 - .345 .373 .538 .911

June 2013 - .277 .296 .429 .724

July 2013 - .281 .327 .354 .681

August 2013 - .252 .271 .313 .584

Sept 2013 - .214 .267 .286 .552

April 2014 - .244 .277 .344 .621

May 2014 - .288 .313 .360 .673

June 2014 - .196 .239 .294 .533

Early july - leaves team as his son dies

July 2014 - .179 .220 .269 .489

August 2014 - .250 .343 .283 .626

Sept 2014 - .319 .364 .389 .753

 

14 total months

4 of those months were awesome. > .750 OPS (3 SS did this in 2014)

3 months were great .670 - .750 OPS (10 SS did this in 2014)

2 months were ok .600-.670

5 months were horrendous

 

7 months have been better than the average OPS at SS ... 7 have been under. To say only 3 months has he shown he "belongs" in the bigs is a huge stretch. 2 of those good months he would be an easy first ballot hall of famer with those numbers. 2 of his worst months came before/after the death of his infant son.

 

When I look at the 2015 team, I am just sorry I don't look at it like we need to fix SS. SS is a crappy hitting position throughout baseball. Lets fix first base please. (We ranked 28th out of 30 teams in OPS and 29 out of 30 in OBP) or look at LF where we ranked 25th out of 30 teams in OBP.

 

In all honesty, this is the key to me. We are not a very good OBP team. This is what needs to be addressed. Kicking Segura out and replacing him with JJ Hardy just doesn't do much for me. I am sorry. Kicking out Reynolds and inserting a competent 1B would be a bigger gain. (Especially because I think Segura is going to bounce back next year)

[WV Brew]

I listened to many Brevard County games last year. The announcers stated more than once that scouts (not Brewers' scouts) said that Arcia was Major League ready last year. He's solid in the field and can hit some. He also showed he can play 2nd. Please don't spend scarce resources on a position that is covered. There is an outside chance of Arcia making the Brewers out of spring training. I wouldn't expect that but who knows? He may be the best option as a middle infield utility guy/right hand 2nd base platoon guy. As long as he would get sufficient at bats, I might even favor that.

 

It is likely he will get another minor league year. Yadiel Rivera is also out there. He is a spectacular fielder, although with perhaps too many errors. He has some power which should show in Huntsville/Biloxi next year. That wouldn't show up in Space Coast stadium. In short, there is no need to move SS just yet, in my opinion.

[Outlander]

Hardy can be crossed off the list, really think it will be Segura again. With Arcia arriving in the not too distant future there is no reason to spend at the SS position.

[reillymcshane]

Hardy can be crossed off the list, really think it will be Segura again. With Arcia arriving in the not too distant future there is no reason to spend at the SS position.

I have to agree. It's not worth bringing in someone to take over the position. You gotta hope he can rebound.

 

What I would do is get a good back up middle infielder - someone who can step in if Segura really falls on his face. Cliff Pennington is an example of they type of guy. He's nothing special, but he's handled SS respectably when given the chance. He'll never be anything special (or even sort of special) - just merely adequate. But he can give you good defense, hit .250 or so, take some walks, and not make too many stupid plays. He is also versatile, so can also back up the other infield spots as well.

 

Ideally, Segura comes back and is a dynamic player again. He doesn't need to hit .300, but if he can just hit .270-.280 and drive the ball a bit more he can be a heck of a player.

 

Even if Segura does rebound, having a good back up infielder doesn't hurt the team - other than shelling out a bit more than you would for a guy like Bianchi or Herrera.

[HiAndTight]

The Brewers don't have the money to spend on a SS, nor is it atop their list of off-season needs IMO, so Segura coming back should be a no-brainer. He's clearly talented. You can see that from watching one game. He's swing was out of whack all year, he started to hit at the end of the year(which while not being worth much, is something) and he hasn't been playing SS very long. He's young. I think it'd be just a terrible idea to use our limited resources to target a SS as opposed to giving Segura a shot to bounce back next year and try to improve 1B and the bench.

 

And...of course if he doesn't work out as a legitimate starter, there is no reason that Arcia can't take over in '16 in which case he could give us a RH'ed platoon mate for Gennett and a good backup SS.

[monty57]

14 total months

4 of those months were awesome. > .750 OPS (3 SS did this in 2014)

3 months were great .670 - .750 OPS (10 SS did this in 2014)

2 months were ok .600-.670

5 months were horrendous

 

There were only 21 SS in baseball who qualified with enough PA's. Of those, 13 ended the season with an OPS over .670, so 62% of qualifying SS were over .670. Segura was #20 (of 21) in OPS beating only Zack Cozart. Overall, he's been pretty bad at the plate since midway through 2013.

 

That said, I'm pretty sure he'll be the starter in 2015. However, if we continue with the Attanasio "go all in all the time" approach, then it makes sense to look at replacing a player who has hit well below the acceptable level for the past season-and-a-half.

 

Lets fix first base please. (We ranked 28th out of 30 teams in OPS and 29 out of 30 in OBP) or look at LF where we ranked 25th out of 30 teams in OBP.

 

I agree that we have a lot of holes to fill. We probably won't be able to adequately fix first base, left field, shortstop and potentially third base, and we don't know how Braun will react to surgery or Lohse or Ramirez will play at their advanced age. We don't know if Broxton will be an adequate closer or if Thornburg will be healthy. We don't know if Gomez is really an MVP-caliber player, or if we caught lightning in a bottle and his second half decline (.880 OPS pre All-Star, .763 post All-Star) will continue. Same with Gennett (.828 vs .621). We don't know how Lucroy's body will hold up after playing basically every day at a grueling position for the past few years. Heck, at this point we don't know if we even have a third baseman. I could go on.

 

This is why I'd like to trade away a couple of guys this offseason and use 2015 as a year to let guys like Segura, Rogers, Davis, Fiers and Nelson show us whether or not they are capable MLB players. I realize there is slightly better than 0% chance Attanasio will do this, but I think it's the way to go.