Seid's lasting mark

[brewcrewdue80]

First of all, you're pretty generous calling some of STL picks "hits." Pete Kozma? He of the career 1.6 WAR?

Barton had ONE good year for another team in which he had a 4.8 WAR with a career WAR of 7.1 playing from 2007-2014. And calling Marco Gonzalez a hit is also incredibly premature.

 

So you start off obviously biased towards STL and you use arbitrary measuring sticks giving the benefit of the doubt to the Cardinals, crediting THEM with the players they picked later in the draft, yet you contradict yourself by dismissing the players the Brewers have picked later in the draft.

 

Then you argue the Brewers 2009 draft was a failure because you compare it to STL's draft, a draft that people have written about as one of the best overall drafts in the past 25 years.

 

So..yes, if you compare Bruce Sieds drafts(Which is the point of the thread) with the most successful drafting team during his tenure, he's not going to compare favorably. If you compare them to every other draft, they've been solid/incomplete, as in we have to wait and see how good the players become.

 

If Coulter becomes a .280/.375 30 HR 3rd basemen, Gatewood, Medeiros and Harrison become good players, Jugnman and Bradley are good #4 pitchers, it moves the needle quite a bit.

 

And yes, obviously if we'd drafted as well as St Louis, we'd be in the playoffs. I don't see how that in and of itself speaks to Bruce Seids legacy. You CAN have a good draft without it being the best in all of baseball for a particular year.

 

I get Kozma's numbers aren't impressive at all. He has a positive WAR over 1+ seasons of games. That's what I was looking at was a draft pick having played at least a full season's worth of games or more with Positive WAR.

Daric Barton's led to Mark Mulder via trade, but also put together a decent WAR in his time. That isn't a Bust imo for a draft pick. Busts pretty much are selections that don't even make a ML roster.

Gonzales. He made the team in 1 year after being drafted. He's 22. Nitpicking about him then exclaiming IFs on Coulter and 2014's draft pick helping Seid's side of the equation? Gonzales has made it on a Division Winning team. I feel pretty safe he's good to call a non-bust draft pick considering. You don't just promote a draft pick to a Playoff team if he's not talented enough to contribute to it. It would be different if I'm calling Gonzales a successful draft pick after getting promoted within 1year by say Houston or Colorado or Minnesota. Being they were playing for nothing but a better draft pick the next season/potential ticket sales.

Pointing out the 2009 draft class as being one of the best draft classes would also just give the idea that it was pretty much can't miss. While the Brewers have 4 ML players to hold their draft to it would sound like every team likely came away with 3-4 to do so to. Again the whole point in my disdain for the 2009 draft choice like the 2011 is they took Eric Arnett. 6 of the 7 next selected Pitchers(if you're drafting to pitching) have made decent beginnings to their careers. Well, 5 of the 7 with Tyler Skaggs the only HS pick of that 7 slowly catching up to being an impact selection.

 

So..yes, if you compare Bruce Sieds drafts(Which is the point of the thread) with the most successful drafting team during his tenure, he's not going to compare favorably

Comparing the Brewers Draft to StL who've drafted that successful while having 0 picks in the top 12. That's the point, why are they so successful while Seid+Milw who've had so many more picks in higher selections to work with? Imagine StL's. draft then if they had Milw's picks and Milw had StL's picks! Wonder then if 8 or 9/20 would be 15/20 and we'd likely fall in the 6/26 range huh?

[HiAndTight]

but also put together a decent WAR in his time. That isn't a Bust imo for a draft pick. Busts pretty much are selections that don't even make a ML roster.

 

Ok then, stop calling Jungman and Bradley busts then as they have every chance to be as valuable as Barton. Also, Jimmy Nelson whom you've absolutely blasted for...some reason unknown to me has a WAR of .9 in about half a season worth of pitching. So if Kozma isn't a bust, please explain to me the absolute disdain you've shown for Jimmy Nelson? I just can't keep track at this point.

 

It's just a avalanche of inconsistencies and double standards in order to paint Sied's draft in the most negative light and the Cards in the most positive light....which is particularly confusing since

 

Pointing out the 2009 draft class as being one of the best draft classes would also just give the idea that it was pretty much can't miss. While the Brewers have 4 ML players to hold their draft to it would sound like every team likely came away with 3-4 to do so to.

 

 

I pointed out the CARDINALS 2009 draft class was one of the best draft classes, not the class as a whole. Two VERY different things. But even if I actually said that, then in reality the Brewers would have been AVERAGE, not a complete "failure," or however you articulated your disgust with our 2009 draft. You see, you keep moving the goal posts here.

[Mass Haas]

Baseball America -- Bruce Seid’s Legacy Felt At Area Codes

[brewcrewdue80]

I found this also last night. Mlb did a redraft of 2011.

This tidbit leads the article:

The most talented Draft this millennium came in 2005. It sent 26 of its 30 first-rounders to the Majors, including Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki and Andrew McCutchen. The second-best came in 2011, which scouts immediately recognized as a crop of once-in-a-decade quality.

 

Flat out ouch. 2nd best draft class this millennium and with 2 picks the Brewers whiffed.

 

The Redraft has Milw selecting Robert Stephenson and Joe Panik.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/182532366/fernandez-a-pirate-redrafting-the-2011-picks?topicid=167757330

 

Of the 33 redrafts 16 are Pitchers. Of course a few are taken before Milw's pick: Cole, Bauer, Bradley, Jose Fernandez on 2nd pick but that leaves 12 pitchers they chose Bradley and Jungmann over who are apart of this 2nd best draft class this millennium.

 

List would go as: Gray #18, Glasnow 5th rd, Blake Snell Supplemental 1st rd, Joe Ross #25, Stephenson #27, Michael Fulmer Supplement 1st rd, Daniel Norris 2nd rd, Matt Wisler 7th rd, Ken Giles 7th rd, Cody Allen 23rd rd, Anthony Descalfani 6th rd, Kyle Hendriks 8th rd, and Jerad Eickoff 15th rd the names on this list that were available.

 

9 of those 16 were HS pitchers and 2 were Juco pitchers. Just a little reasoning why HS talents trump the College talents for me. I'd rarely select College types unless it's fairly unanimous the high ceiling.

 

Giles was 1 of Juco's and Allen was a College draft choice. Eventual Elite Closers gotten in later rounds. Only Gerrit Cole and Sonny Gray as College selected Pitchers reached the top 18 in the draft rerank.

[MrTPlush]

I put a lot of blame on what Attanasio's goal was. I am sure he wanted guys who could go through the minors fast and make a quick impact. Jungmann and Bradley were both projected to do that.

 

Still even then Seid flopped as both took forever to get through the minors and both sucked.

[reillymcshane]

I found this also last night. Mlb did a redraft of 2011.

This tidbit leads the article:

The most talented Draft this millennium came in 2005. It sent 26 of its 30 first-rounders to the Majors, including Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki and Andrew McCutchen. The second-best came in 2011, which scouts immediately recognized as a crop of once-in-a-decade quality.

 

Flat out ouch. 2nd best draft class this millennium and with 2 picks the Brewers whiffed.

 

The Redraft has Milw selecting Robert Stephenson and Joe Panik.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/182532366/fernandez-a-pirate-redrafting-the-2011-picks?topicid=167757330

 

Of the 33 redrafts 16 are Pitchers. Of course a few are taken before Milw's pick: Cole, Bauer, Bradley, Jose Fernandez on 2nd pick but that leaves 12 pitchers they chose Bradley and Jungmann over who are apart of this 2nd best draft class this millennium.

 

List would go as: Gray #18, Glasnow 5th rd, Blake Snell Supplemental 1st rd, Joe Ross #25, Stephenson #27, Michael Fulmer Supplement 1st rd, Daniel Norris 2nd rd, Matt Wisler 7th rd, Ken Giles 7th rd, Cody Allen 23rd rd, Anthony Descalfani 6th rd, Kyle Hendriks 8th rd, and Jerad Eickoff 15th rd the names on this list that were available.

 

9 of those 16 were HS pitchers and 2 were Juco pitchers. Just a little reasoning why HS talents trump the College talents for me. I'd rarely select College types unless it's fairly unanimous the high ceiling.

 

Giles was 1 of Juco's and Allen was a College draft choice. Eventual Elite Closers gotten in later rounds. Only Gerrit Cole and Sonny Gray as College selected Pitchers reached the top 18 in the draft rerank.

 

I wanted Sonny Gray in that draft. People said he was too small to stick as a starter. I also liked Kolten Wong - but thought it would be a bit of an overdraft at our pick.

[LouisEly]

The Brewers passed on Sonny Gray for the same reason that 13 other teams passed on him - his height. If Gray was four inches taller he would have been a top-5 pick. He's struggling this year too.

 

The Brewers have a higher career WAR (1.0) from their first round picks that year than the Cubs have from their first round pick who was picked three spots ahead of Jungmann (-0.1). Hasn't stopped the Cubs from competing. Are people calling out the Cubs for botching their first round pick that year?

 

The biggest issue is that the Brewers were lobbying for change to the draft and subsequently went with roughly slot value picks so as not to look like hypocrites - they couldn't argue for change and then give a guy well over slot value to sign. Remember, the draft bonus pool wasn't implemented until 2012 - teams could still spend whatever they wanted. The other issue is that the Brewers had to draft a college player with the #15 pick because it wasn't protected; any HS player picked who had an agent worth his salt would have asked for the moon.

 

If you rank the 2011 draft by signing bonuses, Jungmann drops from #12 down to around #18-20 (I did an analysis a while back but don't still have it), and Jed Bradley drops to around #21-23. Players who were drafted after Bradley with a higher signing bonus included Joe Ross, Blake Swihart, Brian Goodwin, Josh Bell, Austin Hedges, and Matt Purke. Several players were drafted after him with the same signing bonus (Alex Meyer, Robert Stephenson, Daniel Norris).

 

Players that signed for roughly $750K or more over slot included seven of the first eight picks, Alex Meyer, Joe Ross, Robert Stephenson, Blake Swihart, Brian Goodwin, Kevin Comer, Josh Bell, Dillon Howard, Dan Vogelbach, Daniel Norris, Charlie Tilson, Austin Hedges, (Andrew Susac was ~$700K over slot), Brian Brickhouse, Matt Purke, and Greg Bird, and that's just the first five rounds. Those were not going to be Brewers draft picks if they weren't close to slot.

 

The reality is that the Brewers allocated their limited resources towards the major league club that year instead of the minor league draft because 1) they were legitimate contenders for a World Series and 2) to support their point that the draft needed changes. No, it wasn't this fantasy that it was quick-to-the-majors high floor guys; it was where to allocate resources and sticking to slot-value guys. If you go back and look at the mock drafts and rankings, Jungmann and Bradley were consistently projected to go in the teens. They were drafted where they were projected to be drafted. The year before they took a HS pitcher - why would their strategy suddenly change the next year? It was a different era because of the lack of a bonus pool, and with the rules of today in place you would have seen some guys drafted much higher than they were.