Seid's lasting mark

[colbyjack]

I've have actually wanted to start a topic on this for quite some time. With the unfortunate passing of Bruce Seid I figured this was as good of a time as any to post this, unfortunately.

 

For quite some time I've felt that despite being ranked so low in national prospect team-by-team rankings that the Brewers actually had a solid depth of talent. There aren't (or at least weren't) many, if any, future superstars in the system, but slowly and surely players continued to move up and improve. Jimmy Nelson is an excellent example of that.

 

It reminded me of the Cardinals of probably about 10 years ago. Their system was consistently ranked toward the bottom of all big league teams, and yet they consistently were able to pull 1-2 players from within and fill key roles. I want to say it was around the time they had Dan Haren. They of course used Haren to get Mark Mulder, and also used other spare pieces to acquire Larry Walker.

 

Of course the work Jack Zduriencik did set the foundation for the Brewers playoff runs in 2008 and 2011, and remains as the foundation on this year's team. Seid did a very nice job taking over in 2008, with several key members of the team on the roster including Khris Davis, Scooter Gennett, Mike Fiers and Jimmy Nelson. I wonder how much different the bullpen and overall pitching staff would be right now if Tyler Thornburg wasn't lost so early in the season.

 

Anyway, here's a year-by-year synopsis of the players he took, listing all of them in the top 5 rounds and then notable contributors after that.

 

2009

1. Eric Arnett

1s. Kentrial Davis

1s. Kyle Heckathorn

2. Max Walla

2. Cameron Garfield

3. Josh Prince

4. Brooks Hall

5. D'Vontrey Richardson

 

6. Hiram Burgos

7. Khris Davis

13. Sean Halton

16. Scooter Gennett

17. Tyler Cravy

22. Mike Fiers

 

For being pretty much a huge disappointment at the top of the draft, the emergence of Davis, Gennett and Fiers makes Seid's first draft a very successful one. I still vehemently defend the Arnett pick despite him being a complete bust. If you saw him that spring he was quite simply light's out and it's unfortunate that he was unable to make the transition to pro ball. Brooks Hall still offers considerable promise, and both Kentrail Davis and Heckathorn could have a chance to play in the big leagues at some point. Burgos and Halton of course have had cups of coffee, and Burgos did well in the WBC last year. Cravy keeps performing at a high level as he continues to climb the ladder.

 

And of course, with reports that the Brewers were poised to take Mike Trout with their first pick had he slid one more spot, it brings up the woulda/coulda/shoulda situation and how stupid the previous Elias Sports Bureau rankings were in assigning compensation picks. If Mark Teixeira had one less base hit that year, the Brewers would have received the Yankees first round pick and not the Angels.

 

2010

1. Dylan Covey

2. Jimmy Nelson

3. Tyler Thornburg

4. Hunter Morris

5. Matt Miller

 

9. Yadiel Rivera

11. Greg Holle

32. Jason Rogers

 

You can't blame the team for Covey's situation. That was unfortunate for everyone involved, and at least the Brewers got a comp pick for him even if you don't like who they took the following year. Nelson and Thornburg appear to be at the beginning of productive careers. Morris remains a question mark whose window of opportunity may be closing and of course Miller didn't work out as hoped. Rogers could be the 2010 draft's version of Fiers. I put Greg Holle on there because I liked the pick when it was made, and he similar to later draftees such as David Goforth, Tanner Poppe and Tommy Toledo could help fill holes in the bullpen in future years.

 

2011

1. Taylor Jungmann

2. Jed Bradley

2. Jorge Lopez

3. Drew Gagnon

4. Nick Ramirez

5. Michael Reed

 

7. David Goforth

11. Tommy Toledo

16. (Carlos Rodon)

 

One of the Brewers more criticized drafts. I really liked the Jed Bradley pick at the time as I had the chance to see him pitch the summer before and in the spring leading up to the draft and he was the real deal in college. Great fastball command and solid secondaries. I like Jungmann for what he was, a potential No. 3 starter and a guy labelled with the usual "innings eater" moniker. Jorge Lopez, like Brooks Hall from the 2009 draft, sometimes gets overlooked at times and still offers promise as long as the team remains patient with his development. Drew Gagnon has his ups and downs, Nick Ramirez has some power and on-base skills, and Michael Reed got off to a promising start this season before coming back to earth. I touched on Goforth and Toledo above, and similar to 2009 with the Mike Trout/Elias Sports Bureau situation, just imagine the Brewers system had they figured out a way to get Rodon in the fold (who from what I told saw his velocity spike after that year's draft).

 

2012

1. Clint Coulter

1. Victor Roache

1s. Mitch Haniger

2. Tyrone Taylor

3. Zach Quintana

4. Tyler Wagner

5. Damien Magnifico

 

10. Anthony Banda

 

Banda is added since he was traded with Haniger to get Gerardo Parra, which I felt was a very astute acquisition. Coulter and Taylor obviously are the studs here, not only from this draft class, but for the entire organization. Given how power is becoming a bigger rarity in the game he has significant value in a variety of ways to the organization. Roache has big power too but hasn't been able to tap into it as consistently as we'd like to see. Zach Quintana's pro career is off to a slow start, but maybe he can right the ship similar to guys like Hall and Lopez as referenced above. Tyler Wagner's development on the other hand has been nothing short of spectacular, as he was one of my favorite picks at the time given how he was used in college and his remaining upside. Damien Magnifico is a guy that sometimes gets forgotten a little, and given how much his strikeout numbers have been down my guess is that the Brewers are having him focus on developing his off-speed stuff.

 

2013

2. Devin Williams

2s. Tucker Neuhaus

3. Barrett Austin

4. Taylor Williams

5. Josh Uhen

 

6. Garrett Cooper

8. Brandon Diaz

10. Michael Ratterree

22. Johnny Davis

31. Tanner Poppe

 

Obviously this draft was effected the most when the team signed Kyle Lohse and lost their first-round pick. However, they did a nice job getting a first round talent in the second round in Devin Williams. Neuhaus has been slow to develop, and Barrett Austin is more of a control guy. Taylor Williams, similar to Tyler Wagner, was another of my draft-day favorites and is wasting no time making his mark as a pro. Josh Uhen has a big arm but obviously needs more patience than the typical college arm.

 

The other players listed all have flashed promise at times but we'll need more time to see what they'll become.

 

And of course there's the 2014 draft and the three immensely talented players the team took with their first 3 picks.

 

Overall, the pitching depth, both in the form of starters and relievers, has gone from being a huge area of concern to arguably the system's greatest strength even if there isn't a sure-fire ace, or even a No. 2 starter, in the group. They have 2 very productive position prospects in Coulter and Taylor moving up the ladder (although I wouldn't be surprised to see Coulter dealt for a big-time arm at some point either this offseason or next year). There are some solid role players sprinkled in.

 

In other words, we're in better shape than I believe most national outlets give us credit for, and I hope that will be reflected more properly this offseason when the top prospect lists come out. Hopefully Seid's replacement can pick up where he left off to help ensure that the Brewers overall success in recent years continues.

[logan82]

I think you hit on why the system was viewed as being pretty poor. Little high upside talent. I am not sure we will get a big jump in the rankings until some of the recently drafted guys do well for a full season but I wouldn't be surprised to see us as a middle of the pack farm system.(which I guess would actually be a huge jump from where we were) I think the newest picks will get a little dragged down the rankings by association.

 

While it's nice to have all those MLB starting caliber pitchers the lack of a true top of the rotation starter really hurts. Do we have any All-Star level prospects? That was the other concern.

[nate82]

You are missing David Denson from the 2013 draft a 15th round pick. Lots of power and he showed some patience this year at low A.

[igor67]

Man was that 09 draft just plain weird. Looking at those names at the top just leaves one depressed, but then those late round guys have enough going on with Davis and Gennett both being clear starters at this point that would be solid value for the entire draft, with Cravy and Fiers still a little up in the air in terms of final value. And if the hand of fate had given us Trout it suddenly is in the running for best Brewer draft of all time. Just weird.

 

In thinking some more about the perception of the farm system, I'm wondering if even moreso than the potential of players the odd thing about the early Seid drafts was how long it took to get guys up. Seemingly the Fielder/Braun/Hart/Hardy... core was drafted over a number of years, but once they jelled as a major league team the number of prospect graduating really fell off for a longtime even though as 2009 shows those 'bad' drafts actually still produced players.

[TooLiveBrew]

Really great content, colbyjack. Thanks for taking the time to put this together.

[LouisEly]

Great work as always, colby. I'm sure this is very personal to you as you have had the privilege of speaking with Seid as well as perhaps numerous other Brewers execs who, like Seid, may spend more time reading this board than we ever imagined.

 

You and igor hit it right on the head. If Texeiria gets one less base hit that year, Trout is a Brewer, and Seid's first draft might be one of the best in Brewers history.

 

One other thing that hasn't been mentioned is that in six drafts Seid has had only three picks in the top-20, one of them being this year (Medieros, Jungmann, Bradley). It's hard to expect a team to be in the top half of the league in perceived minor league talent when you are drafting late in the first round or don't have a first round pick.

 

Don't forget the work he did to acquire extra international cap space to sign Lara, I believe the highest signing bonus ever given to a Brewers prospect. And Michael Strong still has a chance to make it from the 2011 draft.

[TheCrew07]

I've been meaning to get to this thread for a couple of days now.

 

I think Seid's legacy depends on how one chooses to frame the argument. He did well finding MLB talent throughout the draft, but little legitimate impact talent.

 

I'm certainly not an excuse maker so when it comes to the Arnett pick for example I'm not willing to excuse that away as "industry consensus". Industry consensus definitely has it's place but I'd rather the talent evaluators in the organization I root for were better than everyone else and seeing what others don't see. The Brewers have done better finding MLB pitchers, and something is absolutely better than nothing, but we're still woefully thin on impact pitching. Impact relievers are generally starters with plus stuff who couldn't stick in the rotation, and simply put we just don't have many stuff guys in the organization.

 

If you fast forward to the 2011 draft there was plenty of talk on this forum how the top 3 pitchers may have been drafted in reverse order of their ceiling, as in Lopez>Bradley>Jungmann from an ultimate ceiling standpoint. I didn't know much about Bradley prior to the draft, there wasn't as much video out there as there is now, so it was difficult to comment on him, but I had plenty to say about what I saw from Jungmann and he's just not my kind of guy in the 1st round.

 

I thought Seid's last 3 drafts have been much better, much closer to what I'm personally looking for; sprinkling as much upside as possible throughout the draft which ultimately gave the drafts decent balance between tools & production.

 

I really don't care about college vs high school, I care about relative talent and upside. So while Covey ultimately became Jungmann, neither one was really the top of the rotation starter the organization has so desperately needed to produce internally. In that respect I don't see what diabetes in Covey's case or Jungmann's longer road to the majors really has to do really has to do with anything. If you're chasing upside pitching like I've been, it's just not there, and we've been woefully thin on lefties, so you were in wait and see mode with Seid; are any of these guys going to become impact players or pitchers?

 

If you just want players to fill holes at the big league then you're probably very happy with Seid's drafts. As I've said many times I haven't been looking to replace with the 4 WAR or better players we had with 2 or 3 WAR players, we're losing ground that way... I wanted to replace impact players with younger versions of those same guys.

 

I agree that DM and MA have unwittingly shot the organization in the foot by continually trying to patch the MLB roster via trades and the FA pitching signings. For successful organizations in professional sports the building process never really stops, they are always looking to cycle impact talent through making strategic decisions about whom to keep and whom to let walk, regardless of sport. I have a hard time believing the Brewer organization has been better off even in the short-term with their limited view on the "now" since 2006, but it is what it is at this point.

 

It's often said that every organization likes their players the most and I think that was especially true in Seid's case. He had incredible passion for his guys and I think in some ways that led to the organization stalling out on the talent front. What I mean is that Seid could say that Jungmann had the potential to be a #2, he even probably believed it, but that didn't/doesn't make it so.

 

I found Bruce to be extremely engaging and thoughtful in both the video and audio interviews he did over the years, as I said numerous times in the past I liked him on a personal level and I enjoyed how his draft process evolved through 2014. If some of the talented players from the last 3 drafts can become difference makers I think history will shine very favorably on him. If not, then his tenure would have largely been an exercise in futility. He did what he could, it's up to the players now.

[agent39]

Bruce was a very good friend of mine. He was a tremendous man and a very good scout. I am writing a story about him for my next bp column that focuses on when I first met him after he drafted Taylor Green and one story about him scouting Michael Fiers who I completely whiffed on. I will miss him dearly at the winter meetings and beyond. such a huge loss.

[colbyjack]

Don't forget the work he did to acquire extra international cap space to sign Lara, I believe the highest signing bonus ever given to a Brewers prospect. And Michael Strong still has a chance to make it from the 2011 draft.

 

Good point on the international guys, both the talent itself, and the cap space allotment, which is an underrated part o the game these days. I remember reading in more than one place that Seid was involved with the scouting of Lara, although given how much money the Brewers signed him for, I'm sure they had a handful of their top scouts in to see him.

 

And you're right, Strong, and Denson, who was also mentioned in this thread, are two more pieces in the system that also offer promise.

[HiAndTight]

I've been meaning to get to this thread for a couple of days now.

 

I think Seid's legacy depends on how one chooses to frame the argument. He did well finding MLB talent throughout the draft, but little legitimate impact talent.

I'm certainly not an excuse maker so when it comes to the Arnett pick for example I'm not willing to excuse that away as "industry consensus". Industry consensus definitely has it's place but I'd rather the talent evaluators in the organization I root for were better than everyone else and seeing what others don't see. The Brewers have done better finding MLB pitchers, and something is absolutely better than nothing, but we're still woefully thin on impact pitching. Impact relievers are generally starters with plus stuff who couldn't stick in the rotation, and simply put we just don't have many stuff guys in the organization.

 

If you fast forward to the 2011 draft there was plenty of talk on this forum how the top 3 pitchers may have been drafted in reverse order of their ceiling, as in Lopez>Bradley>Jungmann from an ultimate ceiling standpoint. I didn't know much about Bradley prior to the draft, there wasn't as much video out there as there is now, so it was difficult to comment on him, but I had plenty to say about what I saw from Jungmann and he's just not my kind of guy in the 1st round.

 

I thought Seid's last 3 drafts have been much better, much closer to what I'm personally looking for; sprinkling as much upside as possible throughout the draft which ultimately gave the drafts decent balance between tools & production.

 

I really don't care about college vs high school, I care about relative talent and upside. So while Covey ultimately became Jungmann, neither one was really the top of the rotation starter the organization has so desperately needed to produce internally. In that respect I don't see what diabetes in Covey's case or Jungmann's longer road to the majors really has to do really has to do with anything. If you're chasing upside pitching like I've been, it's just not there, and we've been woefully thin on lefties, so you were in wait and see mode with Seid; are any of these guys going to become impact players or pitchers?

 

If you just want players to fill holes at the big league then you're probably very happy with Seid's drafts. As I've said many times I haven't been looking to replace with the 4 WAR or better players we had with 2 or 3 WAR players, we're losing ground that way... I wanted to replace impact players with younger versions of those same guys.

 

I agree that DM and MA have unwittingly shot the organization in the foot by continually trying to patch the MLB roster via trades and the FA pitching signings. For successful organizations in professional sports the building process never really stops, they are always looking to cycle impact talent through making strategic decisions about whom to keep and whom to let walk, regardless of sport. I have a hard time believing the Brewer organization has been better off even in the short-term with their limited view on the "now" since 2006, but it is what it is at this point.

 

It's often said that every organization likes their players the most and I think that was especially true in Seid's case. He had incredible passion for his guys and I think in some ways that led to the organization stalling out on the talent front. What I mean is that Seid could say that Jungmann had the potential to be a #2, he even probably believed it, but that didn't/doesn't make it so.

 

I found Bruce to be extremely engaging and thoughtful in both the video and audio interviews he did over the years, as I said numerous times in the past I liked him on a personal level and I enjoyed how his draft process evolved through 2014. If some of the talented players from the last 3 drafts can become difference makers I think history will shine very favorably on him. If not, then his tenure would have largely been an exercise in futility. He did what he could, it's up to the players now.

 

 

How about just excusing it away as "part of the process?" Go back and look at the 1st round picks. Very few turn into impact players. Arnett showed all the tools to be a 1st round pick, especially a late 1st round pick when we drafted him.

 

And Jungman's upside was as a #2. He was throwing in the mid 90's coming out and virtually everyone had him as a potential #2 starter.

 

You talk OFTEN about not being happy with 2-3 WAR players and saying you want "impact pitchers," do you think Seid thought differently? Do you think anyone does? To suggest Arnett, Bradley, Jugnman for example didn't have "impact talent," at the time and or were safe picks is revisionist history using their results.

 

And any credit you want for Jungman as you've pointed out several times you weren't a fan you lose for the relentless criticism of the Nelson selection simply because some scouting reports had Jeff Suppan listed as a comp(which again, for the record, 2nd most valuable pick in the 2nd round the year he was drafted behind Scott Rolen, and would have been the 7th most valuable 1st rounder behind the likes of Arod, Tori Hunter, Billy Wagner and company).

 

Waaay too much is placed on the "perceived," ceiling of 1st round picks.

 

I think Seid was unfairly judged based on the perceptions that some had on his philosophy early on.

 

I also don't quite get the hangup on the left handers we have in our organization. I actually think we're just fine there. If Bradley had developed like many believed(he was a consensus top 10 prospect) we'd have our big lefty. As it is we have a number of intriguing young lefties.

 

The draft is just such a crap shoot, as long as he can acquire talent like he has, it doesn't really matter where it comes from. We offer Rondon a bit more and Tex gets one fewer hit and we've got Mike Trout and Carlos Rondon in our organization right now and he probably has a job as a GM right now.

[brewcrewdue80]

2009:Fail. I don't believe you give a passing grade on that draft class with Fiers/Gennett/Davis being late round finds.

Players available instead of Arnett/Kentrail Davis:

SS-Nick Franklin,Chris Owings

RHP-Rex Brothers,Garrett Richards,Brad Boxberger,Tanner Scheppers

3b-Matt Davidson

LHP-James Paxton,Tyler Skaggs

 

That's a lot of Talent missed on. Right in the area where they picked.

 

2010- Good. Nelson/Thornburg make it successful. And The majority of players picked after Covey haven't had a single impact to date.

2011-Disgusting Failure. Not Starting for your Milwaukee Brewers, Jose Fernandez and Sonny Gray. How about CJ Cron a 1b pick? Where was the plan ahead of 1b future? And it's early there are a lot of talented players to come whom the Brewers could have taken. At this point we appear to be ending up with a bust and #5 SP/Spot Starter/RP When there are top of the Rotation arms already pitching, and better talent to come than the ceilings of both Jungmann/Bradley. What if the team drafted Richards,Fernandez, and Gray in 2009/2011? Gallardo would be gone(traded in 2013) Garza/Lohse not signed and the money instead used for Jose Abreu.

 

2012- At this point too early to factor.

2013-A bust just because of 2009/2011 failures in SPs, we had to give up the 1st rd pick to acquire Lohse. Roache doesn't appear to have either his power or hit tool to make it at this point. Coulter Minor League POY. 61games at C/64games as DH. The word out there is he won't stick at Catcher/ 61/125games only caught? Makes me feel that will be true, and/or say he should stick at Catcher, how well is his bat when he catching Daily over a full season? .287 becomes .245 and .930OPS become .775...maybe? Can't believe with 64games as DH he didn't get used in the IF at 3b/1b At All!

2014-Calling it a success but we secretly know it was due to Greg Vaughn going Rogue and selecting Gatewood/Harrison on his own!

 

I get that many teams miss on draft picks. I just look at 2009/11 seeing the picks and who was available/selected the next few names and it just boggles me how they absolutely found 0ML players in Arnett/Davis/Bradley/Jungmann vs. the AS types that were there and/or the everyday Starters emerging if not already secured at positions.

[narwhalattack]

2009:Fail. I don't believe you give a passing grade on that draft class with Fiers/Gennett/Davis being late round finds.

Players available instead of Arnett/Kentrail Davis:

SS-Nick Franklin,Chris Owings

RHP-Rex Brothers,Garrett Richards,Brad Boxberger,Tanner Scheppers

3b-Matt Davidson

LHP-James Paxton,Tyler Skaggs

 

That's a lot of Talent missed on. Right in the area where they picked.

 

2010- Good. Nelson/Thornburg make it successful. And The majority of players picked after Covey haven't had a single impact to date.

2011-Disgusting Failure. Not Starting for your Milwaukee Brewers, Jose Fernandez and Sonny Gray. How about CJ Cron a 1b pick? Where was the plan ahead of 1b future? And it's early there are a lot of talented players to come whom the Brewers could have taken. At this point we appear to be ending up with a bust and #5 SP/Spot Starter/RP When there are top of the Rotation arms already pitching, and better talent to come than the ceilings of both Jungmann/Bradley. What if the team drafted Richards,Fernandez, and Gray in 2009/2011? Gallardo would be gone(traded in 2013) Garza/Lohse not signed and the money instead used for Jose Abreu.

 

2012- At this point too early to factor.

2013-A bust just because of 2009/2011 failures in SPs, we had to give up the 1st rd pick to acquire Lohse. Roache doesn't appear to have either his power or hit tool to make it at this point. Coulter Minor League POY. 61games at C/64games as DH. The word out there is he won't stick at Catcher/ 61/125games only caught? Makes me feel that will be true, and/or say he should stick at Catcher, how well is his bat when he catching Daily over a full season? .287 becomes .245 and .930OPS become .775...maybe? Can't believe with 64games as DH he didn't get used in the IF at 3b/1b At All!

2014-Calling it a success but we secretly know it was due to Greg Vaughn going Rogue and selecting Gatewood/Harrison on his own!

 

I get that many teams miss on draft picks. I just look at 2009/11 seeing the picks and who was available/selected the next few names and it just boggles me how they absolutely found 0ML players in Arnett/Davis/Bradley/Jungmann vs. the AS types that were there and/or the everyday Starters emerging if not already secured at positions.

 

The Brewers drafted Roache and Coulter in 2012. In 2013 they selected Devin Williams in the 2nd round and they were without a 1st round pick due to Kyle Lohse.

[brewcrewdue80]

2009:Fail. I don't believe you give a passing grade on that draft class with Fiers/Gennett/Davis being late round finds.

Players available instead of Arnett/Kentrail Davis:

SS-Nick Franklin,Chris Owings

RHP-Rex Brothers,Garrett Richards,Brad Boxberger,Tanner Scheppers

3b-Matt Davidson

LHP-James Paxton,Tyler Skaggs

 

That's a lot of Talent missed on. Right in the area where they picked.

 

2010- Good. Nelson/Thornburg make it successful. And The majority of players picked after Covey haven't had a single impact to date.

2011-Disgusting Failure. Not Starting for your Milwaukee Brewers, Jose Fernandez and Sonny Gray. How about CJ Cron a 1b pick? Where was the plan ahead of 1b future? And it's early there are a lot of talented players to come whom the Brewers could have taken. At this point we appear to be ending up with a bust and #5 SP/Spot Starter/RP When there are top of the Rotation arms already pitching, and better talent to come than the ceilings of both Jungmann/Bradley. What if the team drafted Richards,Fernandez, and Gray in 2009/2011? Gallardo would be gone(traded in 2013) Garza/Lohse not signed and the money instead used for Jose Abreu.

 

2012- At this point too early to factor.

2013-A bust just because of 2009/2011 failures in SPs, we had to give up the 1st rd pick to acquire Lohse. Roache doesn't appear to have either his power or hit tool to make it at this point. Coulter Minor League POY. 61games at C/64games as DH. The word out there is he won't stick at Catcher/ 61/125games only caught? Makes me feel that will be true, and/or say he should stick at Catcher, how well is his bat when he catching Daily over a full season? .287 becomes .245 and .930OPS become .775...maybe? Can't believe with 64games as DH he didn't get used in the IF at 3b/1b At All!

2014-Calling it a success but we secretly know it was due to Greg Vaughn going Rogue and selecting Gatewood/Harrison on his own!

 

I get that many teams miss on draft picks. I just look at 2009/11 seeing the picks and who was available/selected the next few names and it just boggles me how they absolutely found 0ML players in Arnett/Davis/Bradley/Jungmann vs. the AS types that were there and/or the everyday Starters emerging if not already secured at positions.

 

The Brewers drafted Roache and Coulter in 2012. In 2013 they selected Devin Williams in the 2nd round and they were without a 1st round pick due to Kyle Lohse.

 

Yes dumb late night writing, I am off a year on most of my post. Will edit it later...

[nate82]

2009:Fail. I don't believe you give a passing grade on that draft class with Fiers/Gennett/Davis being late round finds.

Players available instead of Arnett/Kentrail Davis:

SS-Nick Franklin,Chris Owings

RHP-Rex Brothers,Garrett Richards,Brad Boxberger,Tanner Scheppers

3b-Matt Davidson

LHP-James Paxton,Tyler Skaggs

 

That's a lot of Talent missed on. Right in the area where they picked.

 

 

Yes you can give them a pass as that is 3 players in the majors right now. Kentrail Davis still has a chance to make it to the majors also so that could be 4 players. Plus Franklin and Davidson look to be about the same talent wise as Khris Davis who was taken in a later round then both of those. Only Paxton and Owings look to be better than Davis.

 

2010- Good. Nelson/Thornburg make it successful. And The majority of players picked after Covey haven't had a single impact to date.

 

A little bit of a contradiction here based on your previous remarks from the previous draft.

 

2011-Disgusting Failure. Not Starting for your Milwaukee Brewers, Jose Fernandez and Sonny Gray. How about CJ Cron a 1b pick? Where was the plan ahead of 1b future? And it's early there are a lot of talented players to come whom the Brewers could have taken. At this point we appear to be ending up with a bust and #5 SP/Spot Starter/RP When there are top of the Rotation arms already pitching, and better talent to come than the ceilings of both Jungmann/Bradley. What if the team drafted Richards,Fernandez, and Gray in 2009/2011? Gallardo would be gone(traded in 2013) Garza/Lohse not signed and the money instead used for Jose Abreu.

 

The Brewers had a 0% chance of signing Fernandez as the only teams that had a chance to sign Fernandez in that draft were the Marlins and the Rays. Fernandez didn't want to play for any team besides a team that played in Florida. Cj Cron is a DH as I am not impressed with his defense at 1B think Prince but worse defensively at 1B. Gray is probably the only player that I would have picked over Jungmann/Bradley on your list.

 

The Brewers did try and sign Abreu and were just outbid by the White Sox and the money that went to Garza would have been going to Abreu. The Brewers more than likely thought the risk of Abreu being a bust was higher than what they were willing to pay him. I am going to assume the Brewers offer capped out around $10m a year which was slightly over the amount I would have been comfortable with compared to the risk of Abreu being a bust. You also stated this when Abreu was signed by the White Sox:

 

MLBTR is reporting that White Sox are leading the way and are about to sign him to 6year/68mil deal. And would be the highest paid international signing to date. And I read this is for a guy who just may be a DH?

 

So does CHW just forego any minor league exposure and immediately insert him on their ML Team? This is stupid money imo. Nate proposed 6/7years at 50mil and that's reasonable since it would be a full Pre-Arb/Arb contrace with 1FA year deal. He's 26years old but to me this has to make the MLBPA pause with their stance on 23+yr old internationals being able to sign a FA deal. You're talking a Senior College who graduates at 22 takes 3years to get to MLB and begins PreArb for ages 25,26,27 before even reaching ARB at 28 and that won't even reach 7mil for them.

 

This guy just signed for 11+mil a year! What? I would be okay with this if he wasn't paid anything the first year unless he made the team from playing in the minors and made the league minimum that season before having the contract kick in on the following season. But to be paid this with zero MLB exposure?

[brewcrewdue80]

brewcrewdue80 said:

2010- Good. Nelson/Thornburg make it successful. And The majority of players picked after Covey haven't had a single impact to date.

 

 

A little bit of a contradiction here based on your previous remarks from the previous draft.

 

No it's not. Failing to hit on Arnett/Davis while surrounded by hit picks. Those were 1/2 in draft picks.

2010 They hit on 2/3. I look at the draft as how well did you do with your early picks rds 1-5 vs. the competition. That's where the majority of ML players are coming from.

 

 

The Brewers had a 0% chance of signing Fernandez as the only teams that had a chance to sign Fernandez in that draft were the Marlins and the Rays. Fernandez didn't want to play for any team besides a team that played in Florida. Cj Cron is a DH as I am not impressed with his defense at 1B think Prince but worse defensively at 1B. Gray is probably the only player that I would have picked over Jungmann/Bradley on your list.

 

The Brewers did try and sign Abreu and were just outbid by the White Sox and the money that went to Garza would have been going to Abreu. The Brewers more than likely thought the risk of Abreu being a bust was higher than what they were willing to pay him. I am going to assume the Brewers offer capped out around $10m a year which was slightly over the amount I would have been comfortable with compared to the risk of Abreu being a bust. You also stated this when Abreu was signed by the White Sox:

 

Source on the Fernandez claim? If Milw picks him and offers him the same money or more. He's refusing that? Because that is such a risky move. Now he has to go to College/Juco throw for 1yr-3years then go back in the draft and what? Wait for TB/Mia to pick him. When he's selected by a different team then what? Pretty sure he'd take the money and play.

 

As for Abreu, yeah I hate the amount of money being tossed to these international players. The writing was based on that with Richards/Fernandez/Gray and no Gallardo/Lohse/Garza heading in 2014 the team would have had more payroll to throw at Abreu fixing a 1b hole they have. The Pitching talent the team would have had, I think the risk on Abreu being that of 60mil to offering 66-70mil, Would be none in MA's mind. Again, no Gallardo/Lohse/Garza= 34.75mil this year and 36.5mil next year to make their 10mil/year offer upped to 11/12mil. The team would have been ahead 20+mil this year/next than they stand currently. +their 17th pick(Tim Anderson#83 prospect/Chris Anderson Promising/Marco Gonzales-Already ML action/Jonathon Crawford-Promising as 4 picked/likely selections)

 

Look at it like this with my to 5 rounds as a determination of quality of a draft and not so dependent on the later rounds. How often do Prospects from after the 5th round make a dominant rise through the Minors to the ML team in 1-2.5 seasons? Enjoying the Gennett/Davis picks are nice but that was 2009 and 4years later making appearance on the ML team. And yes Gennett/Davis are positives of that draft, but it's only with the bats. As been stated in IGTs Davis might have the worst arm in MLB for an everyday OF! How long will his Shelf-life be? He may be a Bench player in a year or two if his bat doesn't keep him viable as an everyday OF.

I like Gennett, but say let him face a Lefty, and Squashed! He's an under .300 OPS hitter! So we got ML players, but we aren't dealing with ML AS-types. They will never have a season in WAR like Carlos Gomez or Braun have had. Ever.

[TigerUppercut]

The Brewers had a 0% chance of signing Fernandez as the only teams that had a chance to sign Fernandez in that draft were the Marlins and the Rays. Fernandez didn't want to play for any team besides a team that played in Florida. Cj Cron is a DH as I am not impressed with his defense at 1B think Prince but worse defensively at 1B. Gray is probably the only player that I would have picked over Jungmann/Bradley on your list.

 

The Brewers did try and sign Abreu and were just outbid by the White Sox and the money that went to Garza would have been going to Abreu. The Brewers more than likely thought the risk of Abreu being a bust was higher than what they were willing to pay him. I am going to assume the Brewers offer capped out around $10m a year which was slightly over the amount I would have been comfortable with compared to the risk of Abreu being a bust. You also stated this when Abreu was signed by the White Sox:

 

Source on the Fernandez claim? If Milw picks him and offers him the same money or more. He's refusing that? Because that is such a risky move. Now he has to go to College/Juco throw for 1yr-3years then go back in the draft and what? Wait for TB/Mia to pick him. When he's selected by a different team then what? Pretty sure he'd take the money and play.

 

 

Doug Melvin. Is that a pretty good source?

[TheCrew07]

Wow this got long, I'm sorry.

 

In 2011 there were plenty of other options, especially for top of the rotation talent out of the HS ranks, 2 players not mentioned previously were Robert Stephenson drafted 27th and Taylor Guerrieri drafted 24th. Guerrieri in particular is not a Brewer guy, to Seid's and the organization's credit they don't draft players with character questions so I understand why they passed.

 

My problem with the Brewer's drafting philosophy going all the way back to Jack Z is that they take a shot at high upside pitching early and then that's it for the most part, though the draft and follow process helped them tremendously in the past. We simply need to draft more players per draft with exciting upside, we need 2-3 of those type of arms per draft. Most will flame out, but the Brewers need to make up for in numbers for they've lacked in precision. I've posted at length about the Ray's upside philosophy but closer to home Tyler Glasnow was drafted by the Pirates in the 5th round of that 2011 draft. Carlos Rodon was a flier pick in the 16th, obviously in hind sight they should have thrown the bank at him then, but who knew he'd potentially end up being the best pitcher in college baseball?

 

Here's Glasnow's scouting report after 2013:

The lanky Glasnow was relatively unknown going into his senior year at Hart High, which also produced future big leaguers Bob Walk, James Shields and Trevor Bauer. He comes from an athletic family. His mother was a gymnast while his brother Ted is a track-and-field athlete at Notre Dame. The youngest Glasnow grew a foot in high school, coming on as a senior to earn an over-slot $600,000 bonus from the Pirates. He dominated much of his first full season, leading the low Class A South Atlantic League in strikeouts while allowing only one hit in his final three starts, spanning 14 innings. Exceptionally raw when he signed, Glasnow made significant progress in 2013 harnessing his big, athletic body and delivery. He pitches off a plus fastball that reaches 97-99 mph at times but normally sits in the 93-95 range. When he threw strikes with the heater, he overpowered SAL hitters. He also can induce empty swings with his inconsistent but at times plus curve in the upper 70s, which for now is a chase pitch he throws out of the zone. He made progress finding a comfortable changeup grip as the season progressed and used the pitch more, locating it better than his curve, which he rarely throws for a strike. At his size, Glasnow still has trouble keeping his delivery together and overthrows at times, costing him control. Glasnow will need time to develop, which the Pirates plan to give him. He'll start 2014 at high Class A Bradenton. When his control improves, Glasnow will move quickly.

 

If you don't regularly follow the minor leagues, specifically the 2014 divisional prospect thread and missed his accomplishments this year then here's his career to provide some context of the upside:

[pre]Year Age Lev ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W

2012 18 Rk-A- 1.88 12 11 38.1 23 17 8 3 17 44 2 1.043 5.4 0.7 4.0 10.3 2.59

2012 18 Rk 2.10 11 10 34.1 19 15 8 3 16 40 2 1.019 5.0 0.8 4.2 10.5 2.50

2012 18 A- 0.00 1 1 4.0 4 2 0 0 1 4 0 1.250 9.0 0.0 2.2 9.0 4.00

2013 19 A 2.18 24 24 111.1 54 35 27 9 61 164 9 1.033 4.4 0.7 4.9 13.3 2.69

2014 20 A+ 1.74 23 23 124.1 74 29 24 3 57 157 3 1.054 5.4 0.2 4.1 11.4 2.75

3 Seasons 1.94 59 58 274.0 151 81 59 15 135 365 14 1.044 5.0 0.5 4.4 12.0 2.70[/pre]

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 9/17/2014.

 

We can quibble about specific players but regardless the Brewers simply haven't targeted enough upside in their drafts. If they hit like they did with the players in the first wave it works out wonderfully, if not there's no one really to pick up the slack. That's why I had such a problem with Melvin's continual take that the injuries to Jones and Rogers were responsible for the organization's pitching issues... what organization hits on 50% of their high upside pitching prospects, let alone 100%? San Fran is on a heck of a run that way, but they are the extreme outlier in that regard.

 

Here's the top 20 rounds of the 2011 draft:

[pre]Year Rnd OvPck Name Pos Type Drafted Out of

2011 1 12 Taylor Jungmann(minors) RHP 4Yr University of Texas at Austin (Austin TX)

2011 1s 15 *Jed Bradley(minors) LHP 4Yr Georgia Institute of Technology (Atlanta GA)

2011 2 70 Jorge Lopez(minors) RHP HS Caguas Military Academy (Caguas PR)

2011 3 100 Drew Gagnon(minors) RHP 4Yr California State University Long Beach (Long Beach CA)

2011 4 131 Nick Ramirez(minors) 1B 4Yr California State University Fullerton (Fullerton CA)

2011 5 161 Michael Reed(minors) CF HS Leander HS (Leander TX)

2011 6 191 Daniel Keller(minors) RHP HS Newbury Park HS (Thousand Oaks CA)

2011 7 221 David Goforth(minors) RHP 4Yr University of Mississippi (Oxford MS)

2011 8 251 Dustin Houle(minors) C HS Brookswood SS (Langley BC)

2011 9 281 Malcolm Dowell(minors) CF HS LaGrange HS (LaGrange GA)

2011 10 311 Michael Strong(minors) LHP 4Yr Oklahoma State University (Stillwater OK)

2011 11 341 Tommy Toledo(minors) RHP 4Yr University of Florida (Gainesville FL)

2011 12 371 Andrew Cain(minors) OF 4Yr University of North Carolina at Wilmington (Wilmington NC)

2011 13 401 Mallex Smith(minors) CF HS Rickards HS (Tallahassee FL)

2011 14 431 Jacob Barnes(minors) RHP 4Yr Florida Gulf Coast University (Fort Myers FL)

2011 15 461 Andy Moye(minors) RHP 4Yr Georgia Southern University (Statesboro GA)

2011 16 491 Carlos Rodon(minors) LHP HS Holly Springs HS (Holly Springs NC)

2011 17 521 Mario Amaral(minors) C HS Ronald Reagan HS (Hialeah FL)

2011 18 551 Christopher McFarland(minors) SS HS Lufkin HS (Lufkin TX)

2011 19 581 Renaldo Jenkins(minors) SS HS Whitewater HS (Fayetteville GA)

2011 20 611 Brandon Williamson(minors) RHP 4Yr Dallas Baptist University (Dallas TX)[/pre]

 

Where's the upside pitching sprinkled through out the draft? Seid did very well sprinkling upside HS hitters throughout the draft, position players like Reed, McFarland, Houle, Dowell, and Jenkins all were somewhat raw with promising upside in one way or another. Is there a potential all-star in there? No but there is potential for one of those guys to be an average every day type MLB player yet.

 

Looking at the pitching Jungmann had a filled out frame topping out at 92 with his 2 seam and 94 with his 4 seam, there was no projection left, and he didn't have a plus secondary offering on draft day in my opinion. His SO rate sky rocketed this year, I'm hoping he can be a #3 but he's probably in that #4/#5 range given his total package which was my draft day assessment.

 

Bradley was topping out 95 on the cape but his FB velocity was all over the place from 88-94 during the following spring, which suggested mechanical issues from day 1. With consistent mechanics most players are going to have 2 MPH swing in their FB velocity from pitch to pitch, as I know from putting the gun on pitchers over the years. They occasionally bump up a bit, as in guys who pitch 87-88 consistently will hit 89 on occasion and as they tire throw 86-87 as opposed to 87-88. As a lefty his stuff should have played up some and he did have 2 plus pitches on draft day, scouts liked his slider, I didn't have a problem with the pick, he profiled as #2 best case.

 

Lopez was interesting, topping out 93, exciting athlete with plenty of projection left, unfortunately that just hasn't materialized, he's still working 91-93. His CB flashed above average prior to the draft, I thought it flashed plus in his good outings last year, I still like him. He's slowly reigning in his control but looks like he's more of #3 best case at this point. I liked him on draft, liked the pick, and still like him now. He's a bit of an enigma like the Cardinal's Tyrell Jenkins, though Jenkins' has a bigger arm and needed shoulder surgery this last off season.

 

Danny Keller taken in the 6th worked 91-92 and wasn't really a stuff guy, he didn't have a good feel for pitching coming into the draft. There really wasn't ever top of the rotation potential here, he was a guy stuff wise similar to Zach Quintana taken in 2012. Keller didn't make it out of AZ.

 

Rodon obviously was the one that got away here taken in the 16th but of the players taken in the first 15 rounds you had 2 guys that were 2s best case and 2 that were 3s (if everything went perfect for Keller).

 

The 2011 draft wasn't a good example because of the extra pick in the 1st round, typically the Brewers draft 1 guy with some upside and then a bunch of guys whom profile like 3s, and for some reason have really struggled to nail pitchers who actually have projection left and get them into the fold. Unfortunately many of the pitcher's the Brewers have drafted just maintain their velocity or go backwards, Manny Parra was the notable exception here. Covey is only working 90-93, topping out at 95, which is exactly where he was on draft day. I won't want to do a full list but off the top of my head the story has been the same for Covey, Odorizzi, Lintz, Frederickson, Heckathorn, Arnett, Bradley, Hall, and Lopez... all guys who had projection or big arms as amateurs who've just managed to maintain their velocity or worst case never approached their best again. I've gotten to the point where I'm happy when the college guys just maintain their velocity like Nelson has.

 

Like everything the Brewers do they've gone in circles... they had trouble with projection so they started going after guys who didn't need projection like Rogers and Jeffress, when those guys flamed out went the college route with Arnett, Jungmann, and Bradley, when those guys didn't work out exactly as expected we're back to wicked stuff with projection in Kodi Medeiros. They seem to have gone full circle on the body type thing as well, looking for a specific body type through the early rounds from like 2008 through 2011, and now back to finding young men who can pitch.

 

I don't have a good answer for the Brewers' struggles other than the Brewers seem to favor players who've demonstrated the ability to handle extreme workloads, many of these pitchers impressed with 130+ pitchers outings as amateurs. That's more of a red flag for me personally but it worked with Gallardo, that's really the only common thread across most of the pitchers taken in the top 3 rounds historically by the Crew.

 

I think Seid was better after the first couple of rounds, I've loved the 3rd/4th picks historically from a pitching perspective; Tyler Thornburg, Tyler Wagner, Drew Gagnon, Taylor Williams, and Brooks Hall all have that mid rotation upside, I thought Thornburg had a chance to be a #2 because of his athleticism but that's yet to pan out and may never materialize. Admittedly Hall and Gagnon didn't have the stuff of the other guys (all of whom are slider guys BTW), but I set the bar pretty low after 2nd round, I'm just hoping for a big league career.

 

I want a couple of legitimate upside pitchers taken every draft. Sure draft guys that are mid to back of the rotation types as well, but give me some tantalizing prospects to follow as well. I like that the Brewers are moving more in that direction, especially with the position prospects, but we need to hit on some later round high upside pitchers as well.

[nate82]

 

Source on the Fernandez claim? If Milw picks him and offers him the same money or more. He's refusing that? Because that is such a risky move. Now he has to go to College/Juco throw for 1yr-3years then go back in the draft and what? Wait for TB/Mia to pick him. When he's selected by a different team then what? Pretty sure he'd take the money and play.

 

I am fairly certain he would not have taken the money and played.

 

source: https://twitter.com/alecdopp/status/459870561876066304

[LouisEly]

2009:Fail. I don't believe you give a passing grade on that draft class with Fiers/Gennett/Davis being late round finds.

Players available instead of Arnett/Kentrail Davis:

SS-Nick Franklin,Chris Owings

RHP-Rex Brothers,Garrett Richards,Brad Boxberger,Tanner Scheppers

3b-Matt Davidson

LHP-James Paxton,Tyler Skaggs

 

That's a lot of Talent missed on. Right in the area where they picked.

You need to remove Paxton from your list as he didn't sign that year - he signed in 2010. Being 2009 there was no compensation at that time for unsigned picks so the Brewers would have gotten nothing from drafting him. Scheppers was a big injury risk at the time and that has come to fruition as he has been out since early June with elbow issues. Brothers and Boxberger were low upside/bullpen projections right from the get-go (Brothers has never started a game in his pro career, even in the minors); say what you want about Jungmann, but at least he projected as a starter. Arnett and Davis had more upside than those two. Franklin has spent all of 18 games in the majors this year and has a career OPS+ of 86; his minor league numbers were inflated by stops in the launching pads of High Desert and three seasons in the PCL. Skaggs had TJ surgery earlier this year.

[brewcrewdue80]

Why do I have to remove Paxton? He was selected lower probably offered too little money. Brewers select him higher offer more money does he not sign?

I'll take Scheppers/Broxberger/Brothers over the ARnett/Davis picks. They have made it to MLB. Skaggs had TJ this year yes. But he was someone that was believed to be ready to start 2013 but instead was left in the Minors since Arz had postseason aspirations and wanted him to refine there vs. learn on the job like Peralta in 2013.

 

Jungmann is barely being relevant as a Projected Starter with his lackluster numbers. At best I see a #5 SP. He is already behind the 8ball with a lack of velocity FB. High BBrate just not much going for him. He'd have to have a heckuva breaking pitch to compensate for his weak FB while locating it, and he doesn't. I don't even know if he's got the goods to fallback in to a RP role. I figure his role in Milw will last 1season as a SP and he'll be traded to a desperate losing team to fill a rotation hammered by injuries. Mets/Twins/Royals/Padres/Marlins come to mind.

[HiAndTight]

I'm sure most of us have perused past drafts and looked at players available when the Brewers picked. However that's really a terrible way to evaluate drafts. Especially if you're going to for some reason discount players picked later in the draft in order to do so.

 

The 2009 draft was a successful one. Not a great one. It COULD have been had Mark Texeria gotten one less base hit, but he didn't. And Arnett was a good pick. Kentrail Davis was a guy with a lot of talent who looked like a potential top 15 pick coming into the year at Tennessee.

 

Look at draft picks. Most 1st rounders end up being busts. I'm far more concerned with the totality of the draft than one round.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm sure most of us have perused past drafts and looked at players available when the Brewers picked. However that's really a terrible way to evaluate drafts. Especially if you're going to for some reason discount players picked later in the draft in order to do so.

 

The 2009 draft was a successful one. Not a great one. It COULD have been had Mark Texeria gotten one less base hit, but he didn't. And Arnett was a good pick. Kentrail Davis was a guy with a lot of talent who looked like a potential top 15 pick coming into the year at Tennessee.

 

Look at draft picks. Most 1st rounders end up being busts. I'm far more concerned with the totality of the draft than one round.

 

Tell yourself that. It's true most 1st rounders end up being busts. But to start with the June 2000 draft 1st rd choices to have made some kind of meaningful impact for Milw and for StL. keep in mind StL highest pick has been 13th.

2002 #7 Prince Fielder

2003 #2 Rickie Weeks

2005 #5 Ryan Braun

2006 #16 Jeremy Jeffress

2008#32 Jake Odorizzi

2009#16 Brett Lawrie

Picks as Busts otherwise: 9

StL

2003 #28 Daric Barton

2005 #28 Colby Rasmus

2006 #42 Chris Perez

2006 #30 Adam Ottovino

2007 #18 Pete Kozma

2008 #39 Lance Lynn

2009 #19 Shelby Miller

2011 #22 Kolten Wong

2012 #19 Michael Wacha

2013 #19 Marco Gonzales

 

How about tossing in Brett Wallace/Clayton Mortenson since they became trade bait to land a stud Matt Holliday

StL also has Stephen Piscotti/Rob Kaminsky/Tyrell Jenkins/ who have as good or higher potential than the Brewers best 1st rd draft choices not made in 2014 that are still in the minors.

James Ramsey was used for Justin Masterson who would have been another 1st rd successful pick.

Essentially 10 bad picks for them then.

That would be 16/26 success rate with the highest choice 13th.

To Milw's 8/20 Counting Haniger+Coulter. Keep in mind 8 picks by Milw were higher than 13 where 3 or the apparent 6 true successes came from.

 

On average then Stl is hitting more than 1 draft pick a season with their 1st rd pick. To Milw's .62 a year.

 

Weigh the overall draft all you want. But if Milw was remotely close to StL's success in 1st rd draft choices. You had better believe we'd have made the Playoffs this year instead of an epic collapse.

 

Take away the big 3 and the team is 3/17 to 5/17 with 1st rd picks. So I understand why youre convinced majority of 1st rd picks are busts. Because Milw has Busted majority of them.

 

Imagine how more true you'd sound if StL's 1st rd Success stories were removed from the equation. 16/26 in the last 13 drafts.?

[colbyjack]

LaPorta and Haniger have to be counted in the plus column by the logic you've defined above.

 

And saying "But if Milw was remotely close to StL's success in 1st rd draft choices. You had better believe we'd have made the Playoffs this year instead of an epic collapse" is pretty much a master of the obvious statement considering we're sitting here discussing the Brewers' success with draft picks and the Cardinals are currently playing in the postseason. They're one of the better, homegrown teams out there right now and it's reflect by the success they've enjoyed in recent years.

 

But I don't think that was HiAndTight's point, as you took just one of his comments and ran with it. He was talking about the totality of a draft, and I agree with the premise. Yes, in 2009 their first-rounder was a bust. However, the rest of the draft was pretty strong, and I agree overall that it was a good, but not great draft. In 2007 they took LaPorta (who didn't pan out, but was used to get Sabathia), but Lucroy was their next pick. Hardy followed Jones in 2001 and Gallardo followed Rogers in 2004.

[brewcrewdue80]

I did add Haniger in the plus column. You're right I did leave out LaPorta so it becomes 9/20 projected.

 

The thing about 1st rd busts or Booms. Is that they are looked at as having natural talent with less work generally to be needed to reach a ML ballclub. The later rounds are development picks guys who show a thing that's positive and need to be groomed in the system.

Here's the whole thing that seems to bother me. We're calling 2009 a success because of hitting on Fiers, Gennett,Davis.

Cardinals 2009?

Not only do they hit with Shelby Miller on their 1st rd choice but:

Joe Kelly 3rd

Matt Carpenter 13th

Trevor Rosenthal 18th

Matt Adams 18th

 

Destroyed Milwaukee's Successful Draft. Nevermind the 1st rd. Destruction theyve done.

 

4 of those 5 players are having major impacts on this 2014 Cardinal team's Playoff run.

 

My complaint plain and simple is how often I can look at the 1st rd draft choices and see the pool of players that were available and failing to make the best choice.

 

I just see it as a like being a Multiple choice question with a,b,c,d,e being the answer. 3 of the 5 are correct. They had the 1st choice of the 5. and got it wrong.

 

Ok the multiples are a little more in a few years. It's just 2011 choice of Bradley/Jungmann are turning out so awful compared to the majority of the entire draft class within the next 15 picks. It's like 15 of 18picks are producing ML players who look to have a positive WAR. And we managed to choose 2 or the 3 that won't.

From the Brewers 12th pick all the way to the Giants pick of Joe Panik at 29. Bradley is the worst pick by far. Tyler Beede 2nd worst since unsigned, Jungmann, Sean Gilmartin@28, Joe Ross @25 would fall in tied for 3rd worst.

So 5 of 18 choices could have been bad. We made 2 of them. with the 1st choice and the 4th choice to avoid doing so.

 

It's just the way the 2010 draft is shaping, we appear to be lucky Covey didn't sign giving us the pick in what is a far deeper 2011 draft. Gods were on the Brewers Side in that event. And instead of taking advantage of that fortune, they stunk up the show with their draft choices. 13/18 (72%)would be good draft picks as fate would have it that day and we managed to go 0-2 with those odds. And I mean think of it after Jungmann is picked we then have an 11/15 73% chance of making a better draft choice. 0-2 with those percentages!

 

How about this run? Picks made just ahead of Milw:

2009: Mike Trout. 2010: Chris Sale 2011: George Springer+Jose Fernandez LOL!

[HiAndTight]

First of all, you're pretty generous calling some of STL picks "hits." Pete Kozma? He of the career 1.6 WAR?

Barton had ONE good year for another team in which he had a 4.8 WAR with a career WAR of 7.1 playing from 2007-2014. And calling Marco Gonzalez a hit is also incredibly premature.

 

So you start off obviously biased towards STL and you use arbitrary measuring sticks giving the benefit of the doubt to the Cardinals, crediting THEM with the players they picked later in the draft, yet you contradict yourself by dismissing the players the Brewers have picked later in the draft.

 

Then you argue the Brewers 2009 draft was a failure because you compare it to STL's draft, a draft that people have written about as one of the best overall drafts in the past 25 years.

 

So..yes, if you compare Bruce Sieds drafts(Which is the point of the thread) with the most successful drafting team during his tenure, he's not going to compare favorably. If you compare them to every other draft, they've been solid/incomplete, as in we have to wait and see how good the players become.

 

If Coulter becomes a .280/.375 30 HR 3rd basemen, Gatewood, Medeiros and Harrison become good players, Jugnman and Bradley are good #4 pitchers, it moves the needle quite a bit.

 

And yes, obviously if we'd drafted as well as St Louis, we'd be in the playoffs. I don't see how that in and of itself speaks to Bruce Seids legacy. You CAN have a good draft without it being the best in all of baseball for a particular year.