Question about Mark A now that the Crew failed to make playoffs (Latest 10/10: Roenicke will return, Johnny Narron and Iorg gone)

[MNBrew]

Well said, MJLiverock, and thanks for saying it so well that I won't spend 45 minutes wordsmithing an attempt to make the same points in about the same way.

[logan82]

lol at even maybe, possibly, hypothetical thinking of wanting a new owner. I mean, holy crap at that idea.

Depends on how much influence he has on moves like Suppan, Lohse, and Garza. A meddling owner can have serious negative effects.

[bani1717]

My guess is that most owners "meddle" to some extent at least. It would be hard not to when you have that big of a financial investment in the club.

[monty57]

So what is this magical play for tomorrow formula supposed to yield? And who is doing it with great success? The A's? Twins? Rays? Royals? Pirates? haven't seen them win any WS of late and frankly have been hit or miss on being decent to poor with few occurrences of being great, pretty much like the Brewers of the last 6 or 7 years.

 

We've went on and on about this for quite a while on this site. I guess my thought is that if you want to play "go for it," you should use the Marlins model. We really had a chance when we went for it in 2011, but after doing that, the Marlins model (which by your measure of success - World Series wins - works quite well) would have been to trade everyone for high upside prospects. If you don't like the "all in" mode of "go for it," then you shouldn't "go for it," or you'll end up like many teams who muddle around in purgatory every year, hoping for that one year where everything goes right and they get into the playoffs.

 

The other side of the coin is the Rays model. Once you have a stocked farm that is producing good MLB players, you begin to cycle players. By continually adding minor league talent, you should have MLB-ready replacements for players who become expensive, allowing you to trade the expensive player for more prospects.

 

Both of these strategies take guts, because there are always fans and media telling you to stray from your strategy. Whenever you have a plan, you need to stick to it, which I don't think most GM's/owners do, especially if ticket sales wane.

 

We've been utilizing a Yankee model, which works great for them but not so much for a small/mid market team like the Brewers. That model is to extend all of your stars and sign the top free agent every year. Our version is to extend the second-tier guys as the superstars usually walk and sign second-tier free agents as the top guys go to bigger money teams. If you build with second-tier guys, you are generally going to be a second-tier team - one that is too good to get a top draft pick, but rarely good enough to be a playoff team.

[MJLiverock]

The other side of the coin is the Rays model. Once you have a stocked farm that is producing good MLB players, you begin to cycle players. By continually adding minor league talent, you should have MLB-ready replacements for players who become expensive, allowing you to trade the expensive player for more prospects.

 

Both of these strategies take guts, because there are always fans and media telling you to stray from your strategy. Whenever you have a plan, you need to stick to it, which I don't think most GM's/owners do, especially if ticket sales wane.

 

We've been utilizing a Yankee model, which works great for them but not so much for a small/mid market team like the Brewers. That model is to extend all of your stars and sign the top free agent every year. Our version is to extend the second-tier guys as the superstars usually walk and sign second-tier free agents as the top guys go to bigger money teams. If you build with second-tier guys, you are generally going to be a second-tier team - one that is too good to get a top draft pick, but rarely good enough to be a playoff team.

 

Monty, I often agree with many of your posts and believe you bring a good business perspective to the team management discussions but I gotta disagree with this post. You jump right to the Rays as some model the Brewers should be following. The Rays really haven't had some greater success than the Brewers, they made it to the WS and lost, they won't be sniffing the playoffs this year, much like the Brewers of last year. All it takes is one or two missed prospects on flipping guys like David Price or James Shields out and suddenly the talent level drops. It isn't like there are no risks or even that the method has worked greatly for the Rays or others like the A's. But I agree this argument has been hashed round and round.

 

But I really wouldn't compare the Brewer's method to anything like the Yankees method. The Brewers tried to build from within and went out and signed FA's to fill in areas where their own system failed to produce - - Pitching, 3B. Suppan has been the only really bad one. I don't think the Brewers have ever signed the top free agent on the market. I was originally against the Lohse signing but he has produced better than I expected and now any decent starting pither is going to cost $12MM+ per year. I don't know that any of these signings of Wolf, Garza, Lohse, Ramirez, precluded anyone else that would have been better uses of the money. Fielder wasn't going to sign and the team was too good to just trade him away and defer any chance for playoffs even further down the line. And extending their own second tier guys? Like who Braun, Lucroy, Gomez, Gallardo? I would say those have worked pretty well. Even the Rays extended Longoria early.

 

I think the Brewers have been more a of a hybrid of trying to build from within and supplement with FA's where necessary, but not breaking the bank and crippling the franchise to sign some vet to a 7 year $200MM deal. They haven't had a deep roster to trade from, which is more on the scouting and again highlights the risk of prospect development. I will give them credit for dealing Aoki for Smith and being willing to count on Davis in the outfield. As guys like Schaefer /Gindl/Green/Gamel have flamed out they got Parra for what may well be a future 4th OFer and had to fill in 3B with Ramirez.

 

If everything had gone perfect, Sheets not getting hurt and netting picks, Sabathia's pick not getting knocked back and losing out on Trout, the Indians taking Green instead of Brantley, Gamel not blowing out his knee 2x, Salome not quitting, any of the many 1st round Pitchers taken actually being a stud, Hart not falling part ruining trade value and/or 1B possibilites, etc. things would look vastly different.

[monty57]

Monty, I often agree with many of your posts and believe you bring a good business perspective to the team management discussions but I gotta disagree with this post.

 

That's why I normally write short novels for posts... I have a hard time summing things up in short posts :-)

 

I liked the moves started by Dean Taylor to get us out of mediocrity. It took blowing everything up and putting money into the farm at the expense of the MLB team. Attanasio bought the team in a "perfect storm" for his belief of how to build a team. There was a lot of young, cheap All Star talent, and the payroll was so low he could add a lot of money to the MLB roster and still stay in a mid-market budget. That worked until the players he inherited started getting older and more expensive. Once the "window" started to close, any thoughts of looking to the future were thrown out, and decisions became based on how it would help the team now. With this "perfect storm," we got two playoff appearances, and one playoff series victory. The bar is set so low for Brewer fans that this looks good, but for most sport franchises, that is not really impressive.

 

The negativity I've shown in the recent past stems from the nearly endless optimism I had in the early and middle stages of this cycle. I knew we needed to blow things up, but I had hoped that after the initial pains (once the farm began bearing fruit), if we occasionally favored "tomorrow" over "today," we would not have to once again blow everything up. But that hasn't happened. We have always favored "today" over "tomorrow," and looking at our franchise as a whole, I am beginning to believe we may need to see another blow up lest we turn back into the Brewers of the mid-to-late 90's.

 

Just quickly on the extensions, since I brought it up earlier. I love offering pre-arby extensions to guys who look special. Braun's first deal and Lucroy's deal fit this bill. I dislike offers made when the player is nearly a free agent, as you end up paying free agent price to the player. Our best players (Greinke, Fielder, Sabathia) have turned these down, while "second tier" guys like Hart, Weeks and Gallardo accept them. Gomez is really the only one I can think of who has outperformed his contract (so far) after signing an extension made during the final year of arby. If we were a big money team (hence the Yankee reference), I'd love to just extend guys like Greinke and let the second tier guys walk. Since we can't do that, I would rather trade some good players away when they still have some time on their contracts then do what we've done. Sure some prospects fail, but some prospects also succeed, and if you trade away a good MLB player, you get multiple good prospects back. With those numbers, you don't need a really high success rate to continually have good prospects in the system. When you rely solely on the draft, never trading MLB players away, you need a very high success rate in the draft to even have a decent farm. When (like the Brewers) you trade away prospects for MLB players, never trade MLB players for prospects, and you fail in the draft, your future gets really bleak.

 

In a nutshell:

 

1) Young, cheap and talented > old, expensive and talented. Do as much as possible to amass young, cheap, talented players and swap them out before they get old and expensive. Use trades and the draft to stay young, cheap and talented, and use free agency to supplement the young, inexpensive core rather than using free agency to build an expensive, older core.

 

2) Think in terms of a perpetual cycle rather than a short-term window. There will always be ups and downs, but I'll bet that teams like Tampa will be better than the Brewers over the next five years, even though they're down this season. The Brewers were built to win in a "window" which is now nearly closed, while Tampa's strategy (which teams like the Pirates seem to be emulating) is to build a franchise to win now and in the future. Tampa and the Brewers started their rebuild around the same time. While they haven't won a World Series, they have had loads of success, and still have one of the most talented franchises in baseball from top to bottom. It can be done. You just need to run your team with a long term plan and not cave when the fans and media get restless.

 

Tampa's obviously not the only model. The Cardinals always seem to win, but once again, they always have a good farm system to go along with a talented MLB team. That keeps a down year to a year and not a decade. Unfortunately for the Brewers, the Pirates and now the Cubs are joining the Cardinals as teams that look to be pretty good for the foreseeable future. If they all stick with the long-term strategies they seem to all hold, it's going to be a tough division to win for a long time.

[markedman5]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24715019/hard-to-find-managers-whose-seats-are-hot-but-a-few-are-lukewarm

[AdvantageSchneider]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24715019/hard-to-find-managers-whose-seats-are-hot-but-a-few-are-lukewarm

 

Yeah, I saw that glad you posted it.

 

Here's the money quote

 

"Still, it appears Roenicke is held in high regard by his bosses, one of whom pointed out that they still rank sixth overall in the NL (which is better than most, and also better than the prognosticators guessed; that includes here, as I had them fourth in the Central)"

 

HORAY for 6th place. Can't wait for them to raise that banner at MP.

[AZBrewCrew]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24715019/hard-to-find-managers-whose-seats-are-hot-but-a-few-are-lukewarm

 

Yeah, I saw that glad you posted it.

 

Here's the money quote

 

"Still, it appears Roenicke is held in high regard by his bosses, one of whom pointed out that they still rank sixth overall in the NL (which is better than most, and also better than the prognosticators guessed; that includes here, as I had them fourth in the Central)"

 

HORAY for 6th place. Can't wait for them to raise that banner at MP.

It will look good next to the "1st place for 150 days" banner, and we can celebrate it for the next 25 years too

[3and2Fastball]

Last night had to have been one of the last straws for Roenicke/Melvin. Why exactly was Hector Gomez starting? Because he had a bloop single the night before to drive in a run? Going with the "hot hand"? And conversely, if he was good enough to start in such a key game why wasn't he up months ago?

 

Meanwhile "veteran grittiness" forgot how many outs there were!

 

If there was ever an exclamation point as to why the Melvin/RRR way of doing things doesn't work, last night was plain and clear.

 

They are both great people, I like them sincerely as individuals, they are pros who know Baseball, but this ship is reeling and we need new leadership

[pacopete4]

I don't think it really has much to do with Gomez as it has to do with how bad Segura has been for this team. While I would've put Herrera in there, I feel as though Gomez is defensively superior to him so that was probably how RR was thinking.

 

In terms of veteran grittiness. I know we make fun of it but you do have to have some of it. The problem is, the veteran guys he's selecting to fill those roles, suck. Reynolds doesn't belong anywhere near a starting position, maybe not even a bench guy.

 

This whole lost two months have been a complete showing of what exactly is wrong with how the roster is put together. Had it not been for a hot start, we would have been talking about heads rolling come July.

[fondybrewfan]

Segura, Gomez, and Herrera all basically suck. If starting one over the other is considered a last straw then I don't really know what to say. RR had 3 options and none of them are any good.

 

People loved that he has been starting Clark, a supposed hot hand, yet he gets criticized for starting Gomez after he had a game winning hit earlier in the series? Something doesn't make sense there.

 

The bigger problem is that the Brewers star offensive players have basically done jack squat for the last 4 weeks. We aren't scoring runs and when you can throw a lineup out there including Gomez, Braun, Lucroy, and Ramirez not to mention the likes of Gennet, Davis, Parra, etc we should be scoring runs.

 

The Brewers had so many chances to score that winning run last night and they choked every single time.

[3and2Fastball]

Segura has hit .295/.368 in the last 28 days and .257/.317 in the 2nd half

[Invader3K]

"The bigger problem is that the Brewers star offensive players have basically done jack squat for the last 4 weeks. We aren't scoring runs and when you can throw a lineup out there including Gomez, Braun, Lucroy, and Ramirez not to mention the likes of Gennet, Davis, Parra, etc we should be scoring runs."

 

I think this is the key thing. The guys who are supposed to be All-Star caliber players aren't coming through and aren't stepping up to carry the team. Criticizing a guy like H.Gomez for doing nothing is pretty weak, in my opinion.

 

I really think Melvin and Roenicke are going to be gone this off-season, barring a miracle turn around.

[3and2Fastball]

Jonathon Lucroy has hit .319/.402 in the last 28 days and .286/.353 in the 2nd half

 

Carlos Gomez has hit .284/.375 in the last 28 days

 

Aramis Ramirez has hit .300/.341 in the 2nd half.... he has slumped in the last 28 days

[3and2Fastball]

Gerardo Parra has hit .323 in the last 28 days, .303 in the 2nd half while Ryan Braun has hit .226/.295 in the 2nd half, .259/.326 in the last 28 days.... not an easy decision to bench Braun for Parra but one that should've been made more often vs RHP

 

Of course Khris Davis struggles to hit RHP too

[monty57]

I really think Melvin and Roenicke are going to be gone this off-season, barring a miracle turn around.

 

I think Roenicke's fate is tied to Melvin. If Melvin is retained, Roenicke probably will be, but if Melvin "retires," then I think you get rid of the manager and let the new GM pick his own guy.

 

It's kind of a shame, because Melvin (to me) seems to have had his head on straight the past few seasons, but every year Attanasio goes against Melvin and blows the whole offseason budget on one "name" player. It would be pretty hard to fill a bunch of holes on the roster with no money, no minor league trade chips, and without the authority to trade a "name" MLB player. Regardless of who sits in the GM and manager seats, this franchise could be in for a long drought if Attanasio doesn't change his mindset on "baseball matters."

[FVBrewerFan]

RR had several options in the 8th inning, and picked the worst. He could have left Lohse in for another batter. Then, bring in Duke to face their leftys. Or, at least put Duke in to face Adams. Taking Lohse out is a judgement call. I would have left him in, but I can see the reverse argument. But not having Duke face Adams was just a horrible baseball decision, and it likely cost them the game. All because of nothing more than a stubborn unwritten rule that 8th inning guy must complete the inning.

 

He will use 4 pitchers in the 6th inning for a game in May, but with everything on the line he doesn't play the match-ups in the 8th inning of a close game. I don't get it.

[Bombers]

From July 1st to Sept 8th, the Brewers went from 6.5 game lead in the division to being behind 6 games in the division. They dropped 12.5 games in 2 months. Someone should be fired. That is an epic collapse. And when something like this occurs, it is usually because pitching is atrocious. That really isn't the reason here. The main reason is this teams approach to hitting his laughable.

 

The other thing that is laughable is bring coaches back like Sedar and the Narron's and expecting different results. This coaching staff is pathetic and I would clean house 100%. The only one I would consider bringing back is Kranitz, who has done a good job as pitching coach. But the Narron's can be walked to the door today along with RRR for all I care.

[nate82]

I am not sure how changing coaches changes the players. You are not going to change Braun, Gomez, Ramirez, Davis, Lucroy, or Gennett. The only player that could possibly be changed is Segura. So one player out of the normal regulars being changed is going to make this team better?

 

The approach is not going to change if the Brewers bring in a new coach for hitting or even on the base paths it is going to be the same no matter who you bring in unless you want to trade all of the players I just listed above. Mark A is not going to do this at best you are going to see a new hitting coach and maybe a few new coaches on the bench. Roenicke is going to stay and Melvin is still going to be here. Mark A is not going to make these knee jerk reactions that fans like to make. I wouldn't be surprised to see Narron back next year.

 

To me change the management is just making changes just to make changes. The end result of making these changes is going to be about the same as it is this year. This team had two good months followed by mediocre to horrible months. The Brewers have been on the decline since about the beginning of June. If you want to see an actual collapse caused by a GM look at the A's who have lost more ground than the Brewers have. Everyone was crowning the A's as World Series contenders and winners around June and then absolute locks after the trading deadline with their acquisitions. The A's look worse than the Brewers do right now especially their offensive struggles. I wonder if Beane and Melvin will be fired in Oakland?

[FVBrewerFan]

I am not sure how changing coaches changes the players. You are not going to change Braun, Gomez, Ramirez, Davis, Lucroy, or Gennett.

 

I don't agree with that. If that was true, you really don't need coaches or a manager at all. GOOD coaches find a way to get through to a player. I'll agree no coach can change every player, but I would hope a good coach could help some of them.

 

With that said, I do agree it's more on the players themselves than anything else. It's why I wanted to trade Braun before this season. Gomez too if the price is right. I'm sick of watching almost our entire line-up swing at fastballs at their eyebrows and sliders a foot off the plate. We caught lightning in a bottle with Gomez, but there's just no way he could maintain the OBP/OPS he's had for about a year with his approach to hitting.

[Patrick425]

Jonathon Lucroy has hit .319/.402 in the last 28 days and .286/.353 in the 2nd half

 

Carlos Gomez has hit .284/.375 in the last 28 days

 

Aramis Ramirez has hit .300/.341 in the 2nd half.... he has slumped in the last 28 days

 

To me, Lucroy has definitely been the most consistent. I know people hate the word "clutch" on this board. You can call it what you want, but it feels like the Brewers can never get that two out base hit when they need it. Their LOB numbers over the last month have been crazy. Seems like they are leaving 10+ guys on base every game. Call it clutch, bad luck, whatever..it's all the same..it sucks.

 

I have had such roller coaster thoughts about Gomez since he has joined the Brewers. He's energetic, plays with tons of enthusiasm and you gotta love all that, but right now it is so frustrating to watch him. Regardless of whether or not people think bunting was the right call in his first extra inning AB last night, he failed at it. If he succeeds and Scooter then hits that double, Brewers win. Then his next AB, he tries bunting with bases loaded and 2 outs??? That's just mind boggling. Stealing 3rd with 2 outs the other night ended up working out, but was so stupid. I have absolutely no confidence in him with a 1-2 or 0-2 count. I feel like the next pitch could be anywhere from the top of his head to the top of his feet and anywhere within 2 feet of the plate and he's going to take a wild, ugly swing at it.

[TURBO]

...and the worst thing is, he doesn't learn from his mistakes, he does them over and over and over again. Coaching staff must be fine with it though.

 

[fondybrewfan]

Do you think the A's are firing Melvin over their collapse? There melt down is even worse than the Brewers.

 

The meltdown occurred because suddenly no on the team could hit, field, or pitch. If you want to blame the coach for the players not playing up to their abilities that's fine; I just don't. This is a team that was projected to finish perhaps around .500 and given our talent level that probably was a reasonable expectation. Now we are almost surely going to finish above .500 and we are still fighting for a playoff spot with 10 days to go; that just doesn't scream a firing to me. If the Brewers had never had that 20-7 run and instead gradually built up their wins to where they are now there would be no complaining; but because the Brewers had a great hot streak in the early part of the year perhaps we as fans ended up overestimating how good this team really was. This team had ended up about where it should have and perhaps a bit better.

[brewmann04]

good point we stay staus que