Question about Mark A now that the Crew failed to make playoffs (Latest 10/10: Roenicke will return, Johnny Narron and Iorg gone)

[paul253]

"Why decide that the Brewers are goners in 2015 before the 2014 World Series is over and other teams make their offseason moves?"

 

I guess I am not seeing it as a valid point. Yes you can look at 2014 and say anything is possible. Fine. But the fact is the Brewers played better than anyone expected them to in April and were 10 games under .500 the rest of the way. They were in first place most of the season yes, but only because St. Louis and Pittsburgh were playing so poorly. Once all three teams started playing how most expected them to play you see what happened.

 

The naysayers re: Melvin's approach might prove to be quite right. But until it happens, it's still merely conjecture based on personal biases.

So we have to wait until it happens to say his approach isn't working? Fine. Well it happened this past year. It happened in 2013. It happened in 2012. It happened in 2010 and 2009. How often does it have to happen before we can claim it's not the exception, it's the rule. For the most part Melvin's approach is not working. 2008 was a great year because all of the homegrown guys were up and playing wonderful. Unfortunately injuries to Sheets and Gallardo derailed what could have been a great playoff run. 2011 was an all in year but we don't have the prospects to do that again any time soon. All the other season since 2008 have been disappointments, even this year. Even when the Brewers had a big lead it just didn't feel safe because the Brewers didn't seem like they were that good. And they proved that. So if we patch together a team the same way we patched together teams the last few years why would we expect them to go on a three or four season run of playoff appearances?

[torts]

how about we wait and see what the other teams in the central do this offseason before we start suggesting the brewers are finished next year before they start this years world series.

 

Why should what other teams do determine how we build our roster? I don't mean to sound like a jerk but that's probably the worst strategy you can employ. You don't look at what the Red or Pirates do to determine whether to give Jason Rogers a shot at 1B or obtain a veteran, for instance. You make that determination based on what you feel is best for your organization.

 

that is not what I said, but if thats what you read.. okay? nowhere did I say the brewers should wait for other teams... I said we, as in THE FANS. The brewers are going to make their moves and fill holes internally and from FA (something that I did not think I needed to state in my post, but apparently I should have), but be real here, there are fans posting here that the brewers are going to struggle in the division next year (as a matter of fact, not opinion) and THIS season isnt over!! No one knows what moves or changes are going to happen to other teams this winter, and it happens that one team is VERY young and inexperienced and another is losing 3/5th of their rotation. so again, from the pages of mr. rodgers... R-E-L-A-X.

[fondybrewfan]

What the Royals are doing this year is just solidifying what most baseball teams think. Even if you think you have a mediocre team you don't hold a fire sale. All you have to do is get in and you never know. Mark A and Doug M likely think that if the Royals can do it this year why not the Brewers next year? Its not like most would consider the Royals any more talented than the Brewers.

 

With the 2nd wildcard there are really a very limited number of teams that know they have no shot to make the playoffs. Obviously the end of the year sucked for the Brewers but they were close enough to the playoffs that I don't think DM or MA will consider for even a second making trades this offseason that would weaken the big league team (Presumably to improve the farm). Whether you like it or not the 2nd wild card is a huge incentive to teams to try to fill in a missing piece here or there and not do an NBA style tank and rebuild strategy. The Brewers wouldn't go that extreme but trading someone like Gomez or Lohse would almost certainly end up weakening the MLB team and I extremely doubt DM would consider doing that.

[paul253]

that is not what I said, but if thats what you read.. okay? nowhere did I say the brewers should wait for other teams... I said we, as in THE FANS.

 

That is my mistake. When you said "we" I thought you we referring to the Brewers organization, not the fans. So my comments reference the Brewers waiting to see what other teams do in the offseason. I apologize.

Even if you think you have a mediocre team you don't hold a fire sale.

 

Nobody is advocating for a fire sale though. We're talking about moving one or two guys that aren't part of the long term picture. Nobody is suggesting we move Lucroy or Peralta or Nelson or even Davis.

 

Plus, the Brewers and Royals are in different places. The Royals are where the Brewers were around 2007-2008 with all their homegrown talent finally putting it together. As a team they are definitely on the rise, depending on what happens with Shields I guess. Much more so than we are. As I pointed out, the Brewers were 10 games under .500 after April. They may not be that bad of a team but I'd put them closer to that than the team that was 12 games over in March and April. Of course anything can happen. But you don't throw together a bunch of overpaid vets in search of a fluke.

 

The Brewers definitely need an infusion of young talent to turn the corner, but it's something they clearly lack at the upper levels of the system right now. All I want them to do is not give up a Coulter or a Taylor or a Williams or an Arcia or even the 17th pick to get someone who brings them from a 79 win team to an 82 win team. I actually think the drafts have been better (Coulter, Mederios, Williams, Gatewood, Harrison, Taylor, Diaz, Denson all in the past three drafts, plus Arcia and Lara in international free agency) but we still need many more high ceiling arms. All I'm hoping for in that they don't make the mistake of continuing to give away loads of prospects for a season of success.

[Invader3K]

I don't have a link, but I read yesterday that the Brewers are going to be interviewing several coaching candidates very quickly. No names mentioned though.

[thebruce44]

What the Royals are doing this year is just solidifying what most baseball teams think. Even if you think you have a mediocre team you don't hold a fire sale. All you have to do is get in and you never know.

 

The Royals also have arguably 3-4 starting pitchers that are better than anyone on the Brewers. So, there's that...

[Patrick425]

Just got an email from the Brewers with a fan survey. Not sure if anyone else has seen this or taken the survey, but I thought it was really interesting. Several questions in there dealing with player attitudes. From comments made by Attanasio at the end of the season to this recent survey, it seems fairly evident that there were some players that Mark A. had an issue with as far as their efforts on the field. It would be interesting to know if there were specific instances or comments made by certain players that he thought set a negative tone.

[monty57]

Just got an email from the Brewers with a fan survey. Not sure if anyone else has seen this or taken the survey, but I thought it was really interesting. Several questions in there dealing with player attitudes. From comments made by Attanasio at the end of the season to this recent survey, it seems fairly evident that there were some players that Mark A. had an issue with as far as their efforts on the field. It would be interesting to know if there were specific instances or comments made by certain players that he thought set a negative tone.

 

This is the one thing that makes me think Gomez or Davis might be traded. There really doesn't seem to be any other move that would make sense from this angle (moving a player because of a bad attitude). Now, I'm not saying Gomez or Davis have bad attitudes, but in speculating who may be the culprit, they're the most logical choices that could get dealt for this reason. Gomez rubs a lot of people the wrong way, and Parra got almost all the playing time in LF at the end of the season.

 

Ramirez could walk, but he could do that regardless of what Attanasio thinks of his attitude, and Weeks is gone anyway. They could blame them, but that strategy could blow up on the Brewers. Lucroy and Braun aren't going anywhere. I guess this could be why a pitcher gets dealt, but with our luck, the bad attitude would probably be from Peralta or Nelson and not one of the guys who make more sense to trade (Gallardo and Lohse).

 

Oh well, I just want the World Series to get over so the first steps of the offseason can start to take place (like the Ramirez situation resolving itself), and we can stop the speculation and see what "path" Attanasio wants to take.

[fondybrewfan]

What the Royals are doing this year is just solidifying what most baseball teams think. Even if you think you have a mediocre team you don't hold a fire sale. All you have to do is get in and you never know.

 

The Royals also have arguably 3-4 starting pitchers that are better than anyone on the Brewers. So, there's that...

 

IDK; that seems pretty arguable to me.

[danzig6767]

What the Royals are doing this year is just solidifying what most baseball teams think. Even if you think you have a mediocre team you don't hold a fire sale. All you have to do is get in and you never know.

The Royals also have arguably 3-4 starting pitchers that are better than anyone on the Brewers. So, there's that...

 

Don't forget their bullpen, probably the best in baseball on the back end. In that Shields trade, many forget that Wade Davis also came in the trade and he's been as good as any relief pitcher in baseball.

 

It's not just the playoffs this year. When i watch baseball playoffs the last 5-10 years, having a really lights out bullpen seems nearly as important or as important as having good starters.

 

Look at the Royals and Giants, how important their bullpens have been in the playoffs. Besides Bumgarner, the Giants rotation is hardly a murders row of flame throwing aces. Hell, Jake Peavy who looked washed up in Boston and Vogelsong who is a crafty veteran type of pitcher are two of their starters. None of Baltimore's starters are what you'd consider ace material, but they scored runs and had a great bullpen. The Royals back end of their pen is ridiculously good and a huge reason both for them making the playoffs and for their playoff success so far. Detroit on the flip side had three proven aces, but their terrible bullpen sabotaged them vs the Orioles.

 

Last year except for Lester, it was mostly the Boston bullpen and their offense which carried them in the playoffs to a title. The year prior the Cardinals rotation was far from stellar through much of the playoffs, but their bullpen and offense were great on the way to a title.

 

As baseball as changed with pretty strict 100-110ish pitch counts and clearly defined roles for 7th-8th-9th inning bullpen guys, the impact of bullpens have increased in importance, even more so in the playoffs where so many games are close. Teams that can consistently protect 1-2 run leads from the 7th inning on, keep late tie games tied, and keep only 1-2 run deficits at that small margin for a chance to come back, that's so hugely important in 5 or 7 game series. On the flip side, playoff teams with a shaky bullpen are almost certain to at some point to be done in by that weakness, even if they have a quality rotation.

[3and2Fastball]

Baseball always comes down to pitching & defense. Which, not surprisingly, is the exact reason the Brewers have zero World Series titles

[danzig6767]

Baseball always comes down to pitching & defense. Which, not surprisingly, is the exact reason the Brewers have zero World Series titles

Pitching and defense certainly are important and have been key in this year's playoffs, but the previous two World Series winners Boston and St. Louis won their titles largely via scoring lots of runs throughout the playoffs and having a bullpen who were great.

 

Each year in the playoffs are their own entity. When teams are playing in 5 and 7 game series, any number of things can happen which can be unexpected or expected. For example, as good as the Cardinals and Royals have pitched, both were among the worst home run hitting teams in baseball during the regular season, yet for both the long ball has been huge in a number of their wins. The Giants won yesterday on an error by the pitcher after a bunt.

 

The Dodgers had Kershaw and Greinke, yet couldn't advance in back to back years. Lester and the A's good bullpen couldn't hold a 7-3 lead vs KC in the 8th inning, 7-6 lead in the 9th, and a one run lead in the 12th of the play in game. If those teams replayed that exact scenario 10 more times over, Oakland likely wins it all 10 times. Yost maybe gets fired for inserting Ventura.

 

Lastly, scoring was down throughout baseball. Look at the lineups of all four teams left this year, no surprise that there are mostly low scoring games. You have good pitching facing very mediocre lineups.

[fondybrewfan]

The one area KC has a big advantage over MIL is definitely the bullpen; but bullpens are such a crapshoot you really don't know year to year if you will be any good. I mean I wouldn't consider Detroit's bullpen bad; they just picked a bad time to suck. KC is just playing really good ball in all phases of the game at the absolute best time. I don't think anyone really considers them to be the best team in the AL.

[MNBrew]

As I pointed out, the Brewers were 10 games under .500 after April. They may not be that bad of a team but I'd put them closer to that than the team that was 12 games over in March and April. Of course anything can happen. But you don't throw together a bunch of overpaid vets in search of a fluke.

3 things:

 

1. The Brewers were also 71-55, which is less likely a fluke for that length of time than the 11-25 crash they finished with. In other words, for most of the season, they WERE a team that played well enough to earn the record and the place in the standings they had. That it lasted that long isn't a fluke, at least not in my opinion. Much as you felt they were a lousy team that overachieved, I thought all along they had the potential to be the team they proved to be -- from well before spring training opened ..... The bottom can fall out just as if not more easily than a Cardinals- or Pirates-like hot streak to the end..... To say you felt they were that poor of a team all along, especially when it took a 11-25 stretch to close the season to get to that barely-over-.500 record, is probably still fair but seems a bit too convenient. I still contend that they're more like the team they were for the first 78% of the season than they were for the last 22%. But the team slump was bad and contagious and the offense was the main culprit, which we all know. Almost all teams have some weaknesses, even blatantly fundamental ones, which leads to the next point...

 

2. By your logic, if Melvin's a failure as a GM because his team had flaws and his approach resulted in the Brewers missing the playoffs again, the majority of GMs also are failures, and most to a worse extent than Melvin. There's no perfect way to build a team that's actually attainable every year by any team, at least not realistically, and for reasons that are as varying as they are obvious.

 

3. If you look at the roster, Melvin didn't just throw together a bunch of overpaid vets:

 

- Weeks was overpaid, although his 4-year extension was fair market and well-earned at the time he signed it. The sudden huge drop in production in his prime years probably couldn't have even been projected by most. Injuries and rapid decline cemented his downturn and the resulting badness of his contract.

- Ramirez turned out to be overpaid based on how he produced, but his track record prior to his injury-affected 2013 gave no indication he'd slump that badly as he did in the 2nd half.

 

However, after that...

- Lohse isn't overpaid, especially for his production.

- Ditto Garza. The improvement in the Brewers' rotation was well worth the investment in those two.

- Ditto K-Rod.

- Ditto Gomez, period.

- Ditto Lucroy.

- Ditto Braun, who gets the injury exception/pass from me for now but whose remaining contract years now are cause for more justified concern if he doesn't heal & rebound fully.

- Overbay & Reynolds were obviously questionable moves from Day 1, but they sure weren't overpaid. Weeks was clearly overpaid.

 

... And before they acquired Broxton & Parra, that was it for big contracts or veterans of any consequence (okay, Estrada, whose epic HR rate by far topped his career rate, killed his numbers, hurt the team, and knocked him from the rotation -- but not an overpay if he'd kept his production in line with his 2012 & 2013 work, which was a more likely occurrence).

[paul253]

To say you felt they were that poor of a team all along, especially when it took a 11-25 stretch to close the season to get to that barely-over-.500 record, is probably still fair but seems a bit too convenient.

I'm not necessarily saying they were a poor team. I've thought all along they were an average team. Certainly not the worst team but not championship material. There weren't as bad as that 11-25 stretch but they weren't as good as the 20-8 record either. So take away the 20-8 start and the 11-25 finish. That leaves 98 games. 51-47. 4 games above .500. Usually, not always but usually, that's not good enough to make the playoffs. And I don't know about you but I don't want a team that finishes 4 games over .500 every year. To me that's not the sign of a successfully run franchise.

 

By your logic, if Melvin's a failure as a GM because his team had flaws and his approach resulted in the Brewers missing the playoffs again, the majority of GMs also are failures, and most to a worse extent than Melvin.

 

That's not true at all. I'm not basing my attitude entirely on playoff appearances. I'm basing it on other things, such as what he had to do to even make the playoffs (trade away top prospects to obtain the ace he has been completely unable to acquire any other way), the fact the the team took fairly large steps back after each playoff appearance (10 game dropoff from 2008-2009 and 13 game dropoff from 2011-2012) and the fact that in his 12 seasons as GM we've only finished higher than third place in the division three times. If the organization looked as though it were at least going in a positive direction that would be different. But to me it just seems like this organization is stuck in a rut. No young talent like Braun or Hart or Fielder or Weeks or Hardy or Escobar or Cain or Lucroy coming up. And huge holes in several positions.

 

As far as the overpaid comment. Perhaps "overpaid" isn't the best term. Maybe "unnecessary" is better. We didn't have to sign Garza. We didn't have to sign Lohse. I always thought Ramirez was a panic signing to help offset the loss of Fielder. Free agency should be used to supplement young talent, not take its place. And what has all of that money got us? 8 games under .500 over the last three years. I understand that it's hard to predict how a free agent will do. But I've always thought that with our limited resources we need to be real careful in who we sign. Thornburg or Nelson could have been in the rotation to start the year but Melvin thought we needed another veteran starter in order to make a playoff run. I realize its only been one year with Garza but now with Peralta, Lohse, Gallardo, Fiers, Nelson, Thornburg, as options there are going to be two capable starters, probably young guys, who will be in the bullpen next year. We finally had internal options for the rotation and we didn't even use them. Melvin's preference for vets over young guys is not a secret and I think in some cases its hurt the franchise.

[MNBrew]

I realize its only been one year with Garza but now with Peralta, Lohse, Gallardo, Fiers, Nelson, Thornburg, as options there are going to be two capable starters, probably young guys, who will be in the bullpen next year. We finally had internal options for the rotation and we didn't even use them. Melvin's preference for vets over young guys is not a secret and I think in some cases its hurt the franchise.

 

I agree that Melvin's penchant for vets over young guys hasn't always seemed like the best way to go. A few of those moves definitely panned out, some didn't, and some were a wash. I still think the Lohse signing was a coup because what we had was falling apart at the seams... All the young guys we were counting on other than Peralta (who still took over a half-year to prove he was worth waiting out) were crapping out throughout ST -- Rogers lost all velocity and eventually any hopes of being in the bigs; Fiers was terrible in ST and, the start of the year, just as he'd ended the previous year in the bigs and still pitched horribly in AAA when they sent him down; Thornburg didn't pitch well enough to earn a MLB rotation spot, nor at the time did Burgos or Nelson. Gallardo was decent but not great, and Estrada was no given yet.... I thought the Lohse signing was a blessing because the Brewers were facing entering the season with next to nothing in the rotation in terms of reliability beyond Gallardo, which would've totally sunk them. With how the rest of 2013 went, when about everything that could go wrong did, the Lohse signing didn't guarantee 'em a playoff spot, but it did help a team in need of rotation stability & leadership, which to my thinking made it a very worthwhile signing. (I'd sure love to see Gallardo pitch & conduct himself as a leader more than a guy who follows the other leaders.)

 

Re: the rotation now & going forward, while Thornburg arguably could've started this year, he's no given for next year due to his injury situation never noticeably improving -- the whole rest of the year, no answers or evidence of progress. Fiers needed to get his game together in AAA again, which thankfully he did. Nelson, for however strong he looked at the end of last year & in AAA this year, proved in the 2nd half that he's not as MLB-ready yet as many of us thought he'd be. It got to the point that pretty much any appearance was a losing proposition for him. That tells me he's not an automatic "should be in the rotation now" guy going into 2015. If he's got Peralta-like stuff and is on a Peralta-like upward ascent, then he should start showing notable improvement next year. But anything he gets in the bigs next year, he still has to earn.

 

Re: your other point about promising prospects at the upper levels, you've got a solid point. There seems to be a considerable gap. However, that doesn't necessarily mean everything. Guys like Cain & Escobar got enough MLB playing time with the Brewers that many weren't convinced at all that they'd realize their potential. Given that Cain was knocking on the MLB door at the end of 2010, ending that year with an hardly stellar call-up showing, it's really taken him 'til this year to turn himself into a healthy & very reliable regular.... not unlike Mickey Brantley in the '08 Sabathia trade.... Both those guys were decent prospects but hardly the no-brainers to become the types of MLB regulars they are now -- and it took 'em several years and multiple trips to the minors (not Escobar, but Cain & Brantley) to become that. Similarly, Escobar hit well at the end of '09, enough to punch Hardy's ticket out of town, but hit really badly in 2010, enough so that many doubted the validity of his 2009 -- killer glove but lousy hitting & production, terrible plate discipline, etc. Fast-forward to now and we'd sure love to have Cain or Aoki back, and Escobar sure looks a whole lot better than Segura did this year. Those 3 KC guys plus Brantley are good reminders -- heck, as is Jeffress!!! -- to all of us (Melvin and any FO guy on any team, for that matter) that sometimes the best thing to do is have faith in the young guys and give them the time to develop. At the same time, for every Brantley or Cain or Odorizzi, there's a LaPorta, a Will Inman, a Cole Gillespie, or even Brett Lawrie who, for one reason or another, doesn't live up to the potential over the long-term that merited his inclusion as a top prospect in a trade for a difference-making veteran. The majority of Melvin's moves haven't totally emptied the farm system like many suggest, though obviously the two SP acquisitions in the winter of 2010-11 did skim the cream off the top, leaving a seemingly flat & uninteresting remainder, as we heard endlessly at the time.... However, keep in mind that that MLB-worst farm system remainder included the Gennetts, Davises, Thornburgs, Kintzlers, Peraltas, Maldonados, etc., who are all integral and generally successful members of the current MLB roster -- not so putrid after all, just seemed to be lacking in blue chippers.

[danzig6767]

 

As far as the overpaid comment. Perhaps "overpaid" isn't the best term. Maybe "unnecessary" is better. We didn't have to sign Garza. We didn't have to sign Lohse. I always thought Ramirez was a panic signing to help offset the loss of Fielder. Free agency should be used to supplement young talent, not take its place. And what has all of that money got us? 8 games under .500 over the last three years. I understand that it's hard to predict how a free agent will do. But I've always thought that with our limited resources we need to be real careful in who we sign. Thornburg or Nelson could have been in the rotation to start the year but Melvin thought we needed another veteran starter in order to make a playoff run. I realize its only been one year with Garza but now with Peralta, Lohse, Gallardo, Fiers, Nelson, Thornburg, as options there are going to be two capable starters, probably young guys, who will be in the bullpen next year. We finally had internal options for the rotation and we didn't even use them. Melvin's preference for vets over young guys is not a secret and I think in some cases its hurt the franchise.

 

Attanasio says hi.

 

Read the stories after signing Suppan, Loshe, Ramirez, and Garza. In each instance, stories included comments of Attanasio negotiating directly with the agents for all four players. Attanasio taking them out to dinner trying to sell them on signing with the Brewers.

 

Now Melvin very well could have been in agreement with Attanasio about signing all four guys or maybe 2-3 of them. With Lohse though there were multiple stories/interviews with Melvin where he said he just wasn't interested, mainly because he didn't want to lose the first round pick. Then out of nowhere as starters struggled in spring training, Lohse gets signed and Attanasio talked about how he had been in contact with Boras for weeks, but only later could he come up with agreeable contract terms. Attanasio also mentioned about how he did a study on draft picks 20th or later for how often they panned out and that helped him decide that giving up a first in signing Lohse was worth it.

 

FWIW, i'm not trying to imply that Melvin in general is against Attanasio's desire to try and be win first each year, but it sure is hard to believe that the owner hasn't been a key factor in those type of signings which bother you. He's definitely no Mark Murphy in Green Bay who allows Ted Thompson to do pretty much as he pleases. Instead, he seems to be closer to how Herb Kohl operated with the Bucks, only with more success and much better fan support for a variety of reasons. Dumping Melvin and bringing in a new GM would by no means be a strong likely-hood of a major change in team building philosophy.

 

That said, even if Attanasio hired a new GM, demanded a win now approach each year, and Attansio stayed involved with roster construction regarding bigger name free agents,, i'd still prefer a change just to see if a new GM could do better in a win now mandate and with strong owner involvement.

 

Edit---By the way, one huge huge bummer from the offseason was Jose Abreu. Reports came out that the Brewers bid 60 plus million for Abreu, only to be topped by Chicago at 68 million, probably only about 5 million more. After that fell through, Attanasio went after Garza. The team not only could have potentially made the playoffs had they landed Abreu instead, they'd also have him for another four years at a position they desperately need help at.

[danzig6767]

Two more examples today of the importance of bullpens in today's playoff baseball.

 

1. The Giants pen covers six scoreless innings as a huge factor in winning 6-4. Their pen has been fabulous through the whole playoffs.

 

2. KC gets yet again four more dominating innings from their pen to hold on to a series sweeping 2-1 win.

 

The so often stated mantra of teams needing at least one true ace, preferably a hard throwing beast and two other high quality starters to advance in the playoffs is looking more and more like a myth than a near absolute reality. Sure, it would be nice to have a true ace and two other high end starters, but it seems no longer essential at all. In fact, the four teams with the best high end starters all got bounced out early. This has been happening in previous playoffs.

 

With days off in the playoffs and managers not having to worry about burning out their bullpens as they have to strongly consider in regular season games, they can simply yank a struggling starter only say 3-4 innings to a game and if their pen is really good, that manager often will have 3 to 5 guys with numbers near as good, as good, or better than the starter if he's not an ace.

 

So to me in today's baseball, when trying to compare two teams facing each other in the playoffs, i'd look at their bullpens near as closely as their rotations. Granted, bullpens can be volatile from year to year when putting them together, but if you can get one with multiple high end stuff pitchers to throw 3-4 innings of close games, you can often cover for a less than stellar group of starters.

[young guns]

Parra got almost all the playing time in LF at the end of the season

Thats because davis was hurt. Because of the expanded rosters, we just didn't really hear about it.

[Invader3K]

Parra got almost all the playing time in LF at the end of the season

Thats because davis was hurt. Because of the expanded rosters, we just didn't really hear about it.

 

Everyone's been really tight lipped about who supposedly "gave up" or "had attitude issues" on the team. Haven't really seen any speculation come out about it from anyone who would be in the know. I haven't heard anything about Davis one way or another, but I doubt a guy who's basically a rookie like him would be causing any major problems.

[brewmann04]

we can talk what could have been,but i like Mark Approach trying to put together a winning team.

[logan82]

I like that he is trying to put together a winning team. I am not a big fan of how he is going about it.

[JohnBriggs12]

Kansas City's bullpen has been ridiculously good all year. Between them Holland, Davis, and Herrera had a 1.28 ERA and 9.0 WAR (Per Baseball Ref) over 204 innings. By contrast, the Brewer's top 3 relievers had an ERA of 3.09 and 2.8 WAR. That's 6 win difference right there. 88 wins and the Brewers match Pitts and SF. These guys have been the difference in the postseason as well. Amazing.

 

Hard to see any team getting that kind of bullpen production in consecutive years. Key move for KC was moving Wade Davis, who was a middling starter at best, into a reliever. Who saw him having one of the most dominant seasons in recent history as a reliever?

 

When a bullpen is as good as KC's, it takes pressure of the rest of the team. Ask yourself, what was the turning point in the Brewer season? It was the game in San Diego when K-Rod got squeezed and blew the save. Over the course of 162 games those kind of losses add up. The Royals don't have the burden of those games in their memory banks for this season. They can't even conceive of losing when they are tied or have a lead late because in their experience, the opponent can't score.

[MNBrew]

The bullpen may well have been the Brewers' biggest difference-maker in 2011. Once K-Rod was acquired & took over the 8th inning, Saito, Hawkins, K-Rod, & Axford basically turned it into a 5-6 inning game every night. I wish they'd not gotten tight on the coin when it came to keeping Hawk & Saito for 2012.

[monty57]

Parra got almost all the playing time in LF at the end of the season

Thats because davis was hurt. Because of the expanded rosters, we just didn't really hear about it.

 

I know, but after he was able to play, Parra continued to start. I chalk this up to Roenicke liking Parra's defense and disliking Davis' arm. I think eventually Davis will end up at DH, as teams can run on him at will.

 

My post was pure speculation, but when the owner says people gave up, then at least in his eyes some players gave up and something will probably be done about it. I was just trying to think of who might be in Attanasio's sights. If all he does is get rid of a couple of relatively meaningless coaches, then his whole episode in the press box was a bunch of hot air.

 

I thought the Lohse signing was a blessing because the Brewers were facing entering the season with next to nothing in the rotation in terms of reliability beyond Gallardo, which would've totally sunk them.

 

He's pitched as well as could be expected, but during Lohse's tenure as a Brewer, they haven't done anything as a team, so might they be better off if they had just not signed him? Same goes for Ramirez.

 

Re: your other point about promising prospects at the upper levels, you've got a solid point... At the same time, for every Brantley or Cain or Odorizzi, there's a LaPorta, a Will Inman, a Cole Gillespie, or even Brett Lawrie who, for one reason or another, doesn't live up to the potential over the long-term that merited his inclusion as a top prospect in a trade for a difference-making veteran.

 

As you pointed out, some prospects fail while others succeed. That's why it's vitally important to stockpile as many good prospects as you can from a variety of sources (draft, trade, international). By trading away prospects, not trading for prospects and not really getting into international signings until recently, they were highly dependent on the draft to stock up their farm and they haven't been very good in the draft. Recent changes (drafting for higher upside, signing international players) seem to be positive.

 

I understand that it's hard to predict how a free agent will do.

 

An important point that is often overlooked as people talk about how unpredictable ("crapshoot") prospects are. Yes some prospects fail, but so do veterans. However, prospects are generally a lot cheaper than veterans, so with the right strategy in place, you can stockpile a lot more prospects than you can veterans, and making a mistake on one is not nearly as costly. If we got in the habit of occasionally trading away a "proven" vet for a few prospects, you don't have to hit on all of them. If, for instance, we traded Lohse for three guys, only one of those three would have to pan out and we would get six cheap years of a good, young player for one expensive year of a guy who may or may not be league average over one more season near the end of his career. If we happen to be right on two of the three, we've got a steal. Of course, none could pan out, which is why this can't be a one-off situation, like the Brewers have made it by rarely making "proven-for-prospect" trades, but often making "prospect-for-proven" moves.

 

Note: "prospect-for-proven" does not only mean trades, it can also mean things like giving up draft picks for free agents, or bringing in journeyman vets to block younger, cheaper players.