College Basketball Thread 2014-15

[brwrsfan]

In ESPN's latest mock draft (insider required), they have Dekker going 25th to the Lakers. That's starting to get dangerously close to the second round. Being a first round pick is essential for anyone that leaves early. First round picks are guaranteed contracts and roster spots. Second round picks make substantially less money, aren't guaranteed spots on rosters and often times wind up in Europe.

 

If he's really projected at the bottom of the first round, Dekker has a huge decision to make. How certain is it that he'd go in the first? Basically...does he think he would improve or hurt his stock during his senior year? Improving would mean likely moving up in the first round, stock dropping would mean second round pick or worse. It's a tough call certainly. Would hate to see him leave early and then not get picked in the first round - guess that's what the NBA advisors are for.

 

Obviously a lot can change in projections between now and the end of the year and whatnot, but if he's really projected in the 25-35 range, that makes the decision way, way more difficult than if he was more or less a certain first round pick.

[tmwiese55]

you're 100% right. if that's the best report he gets from the NBA advisors before his decision he should stay. Based off some of the UW insider stuff I read and off what he did at the Lebron and KD camps last summer that he's been told he's a lock first rounder. Our system doesn't allow for people to really show their stuff so media people doing mocks probably don't really know where to put him.

 

That being said, best thing for him might be to get drafted in the 20s to a good team and just be a role player. maybe better than going to a crap team and being forced to be the man. It's all about the right fit in the NBA. Seems like he might be the type you'd be disappointed in if you use say a #8 pick on him or say he underachieved because he'll probably never be a star. But if you take him at #25 and he is a rotation player you're happy with him. If that makes sense at all.

[fondybrewfan]

Big game for the Badgers tonight. Win at Maryland and at home against Michigan State on Sunday and they should leapfrog Gonzaga for the coveted #1 seed. I don't think being a #2 is really a big deal for the Badgers if it ends up that way; I just don't want them to be in the Kentucky region. Getting on that #1 line assures them of not having to face Kentucky until the Final 4.

 

I think both Duke and Virginia probably have another loss or two in them but it is asking a lot of the Badgers to win out this season. Maryland, MSU, OSU and the conference tourney will be awfully hard to sweep through. Gonzaga probably isn't losing at all and neither is Kentucky.

[tmwiese55]

I've read a few things lately saying that if we don't get a 1 seed that we'll get put in Kentucky's bracket due to being regionally close to them. They don't seed it like a normal snake type system. Meaning that it's not guaranteed the #5 overall gets put in the same bracket as the #4 overall and that #1 overall isn't for sure with #8 overall. And since the most convenient location for both UW and UK for the Sweet 16 and Elite is in Ohio that we'll get stuck with them rather than getting shipped out to play all our games on the west coast to be in the Gonzaga bracket. I saw this in articles on multiple sites, CBS, ESPN, Grantland.

 

Best case would be to get the #1 seed in the West with Gonzaga getting bumped down rather than Duke or UVA, therefore getting Gonzaga as our 2 seed. If we win the next 3 and at least make it to the championship game of the B1G Tourney I don't know how anyone can say we don't deserve it.

[tmwiese55]

Right after I posted that I saw this article about the 1 seeds.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-the-dagger/why-the-top-no--2-seed-could-be-selection-sunday-s-biggest-loser-194001171.html

[brwrsfan]

This is a really must win game for the Badgers. This is the highest rated team they will play this year other than Duke. Beating them on the road would go a long, long way in helping that one seed. We're actually favored by 5, so hopefully that holds true. Maryland has been pretty up and down this year but mainly good at home. This is a huge game for them also so this could be a real battle.

 

Hopefully they can pull it out. And yes, the committee does try to keep teams close to home but they do also look at competitive balance as well. So it's not automatic that we'd get placed in the Midwest.

[fondybrewfan]

Villanova can also make a very good case for a #1 seed as well. If UW wins out I think they are basically guaranteed a #1 and perhaps they could conceivably lose one more game. If they are a #2 I want Gonzaga, Villanova, or Virginia to be there #1 seed. Even Duke wouldn't be that bad; that team just got incredibly hot at the Kohl Center earlier this year.

 

First things first though; they have to beat Maryland. Maryland has been winning rather ugly including nearly losing to Northwestern at home. UW should and is favored in this game but no doubt Maryland knows how big of a game this would be for them.

[tmwiese55]

I didn't realize they only had 2 losses due to me pretty much writing off that whole conference and that Villanova has been a consistent underperformer in the tourney for years and generally never as good as their records say. They have a case vs Gonzaga but I don't see them having one over us unless we lost 2 more games. They have a bad loss to Seton Hall, nearly as bad as ours to Gonzaga. And we blown out by G-Town, who we comfortably beat.

[brwrsfan]

Glad to see us come out fired up for a huge road game. Just awful offense, missing a ton of open threes, not moving. Even worse on defense, allowing 65% and a large number of layups. Better get it together or this game is going to turn into a blow out.

 

Maryland is purposely slowing the game down and it's working out to their huge advantage as we can't execute on offense - missed at least 5 WIDE open threes in the first half.

[fondybrewfan]

Pretty tough to beat a good team on the road when your two starting guards go a combined 3-17 from the floor. I will give Koenig the benefit of the doubt; this was his first bad shooting game since becoming a starter. Gasser however has been broke lately and his missing completely wide open shots. Gasser and to a lesser extent Dukan are going to have to start making some shots if UW wants to make a run in March.

 

It will probably be pretty hard to get a #1 seed now unless there a multiple losses from the teams ahead. Not a big deal to me; but again don't end up in Kentucky's bracket.

[tmwiese55]

Threes were wide open in the first half, if we hit 3-4 of those like we normally do it's a whole different game. Wide open 3s are the second best shot in bball, especially for a team that shoots as well as UW. They just didn't go in, it happens, especially a tough road environment on short rest for a team that's basically been only playing 5 guys for the last month due to Dukan being terrible lately. One thing I've been annoyed with by UW fans the last several years is complaining about shooting so many 3s when they don't go in, but no complaints when they do go in. That's our offense, it's what we do, sometimes you miss though.

 

1 seed is tough now, it's pretty rare that a 3 loss team that wins the B1G Regular and Tourney Championship (assuming a win out, which is no guarantee) doesn't get a 1 seed, some years you might be number 1 overall. It could totally happen this year though.

[bjkrautk]

Not a big deal to me; but again don't end up in Kentucky's bracket.

 

Since the NCAA selection committee values geographic proximity over the S-Curve for the top 4 seeds in each region, a #2-seed Wisconsin would be placed in the same bracket as Kentucky (Cleveland, Ohio, if memory serves). There have been a few stories on that subject this past week.

[superfly]

Gonna have to beat Kentucky either way if we want to win a title, so might as well get it out of the way earlier.

[fondybrewfan]

I have heard it both ways regarding geography. I don't think anyone really has a clue; ultimately the committee can do whatever they want. The Midwest regional is in Cleveland; so I don't know that it would favor either UW or Kentucky in that instance.

 

I am not saying UW can't beat Kentucky; I would just much rather play anyone else in a Regional Final to make a Final 4. Everyone here would rather they be the #2 with Gonzaga or Virginia the #1.

[Funketown]

I'm not sure why everybody is acting like Kentucky is a guarantee to make the final four. They're really, really good, but they really haven't faced an elite opponent yet.

 

It's certainly in anyone's interest to be as far away from Kentucky as possible int he bracket and hope some 5-seed goes 8/13 from beyond the arc and hits free throws.

[lcbj68c]

Hayes looked like hot garbage vs Maryland. He'd better not perform like that again if this team wants to make a deep tournament run. I reckon any shot at a #1 seed is gone even if they run the table and Gonzaga loses.

[DHonks]

I didn't realize they only had 2 losses due to me pretty much writing off that whole conference and that Villanova has been a consistent underperformer in the tourney for years and generally never as good as their records say. They have a case vs Gonzaga but I don't see them having one over us unless we lost 2 more games. They have a bad loss to Seton Hall, nearly as bad as ours to Gonzaga. And we blown out by G-Town, who we comfortably beat.

 

wow, pretty crazy statement to read. Nova had several crappy years but entered the tourney highly ranked last year before being knocked out over the weekend by eventual champs UCONN. Why are you writing off one of the nation's best conferences? They'll likely get 6 solid to very good teams into the Big Dance.

 

speaking of the Dance, good to see Michigan St turning it on. They always seem to cover the spread in the NCAA. Should be 6 Big East teams and 7 Big Ten teams making the dance....good for all the Marquette and Wisconsin fans on this forum

[paul253]

I'm not sure why everybody is acting like Kentucky is a guarantee to make the final four. They're really, really good, but they really haven't faced an elite opponent yet.

 

I agree. I don't think there is any way Kentucky is undefeated if they play in the ACC. I don't think they'd be undefeated even if they played in the Big Ten and the Big Ten is having a down year. The SEC has a bunch of average teams. Other than Kentucky nobody really good though. I'm not saying that Kentucky isn't good because obviously they are. But I don't think drawing them in the tournament is the automatic death sentence everyone is making it out to be.

[tmwiese55]

"wow, pretty crazy statement to read. Nova had several crappy years but entered the tourney highly ranked last year before being knocked out over the weekend by eventual champs UCONN. Why are you writing off one of the nation's best conferences? They'll likely get 6 solid to very good teams into the Big Dance."

 

Seriously, you think the current Big East is one of the best conferences? You realize all the big programs are gone now don't you? I don't see your point about them losing in the round of 32 last year as a 2 seed after a 5 loss season as validation, I actually think it proves exactly my point. And the two times they made the tourney previously they lost in the first round. And the time before that the round of 32 again (as a 2 seed). 09 they made the FF and they've been a disappointment since.

 

Obviously after our loss they have a strong case vs us but I was just saying I hadn't been paying attention to them for those reasons. And really I'd love to get them as 1,2, or 3 seed in our bracket.

[Funketown]

The Big East is undoubtedly one of the better conferences in the country right now. Sagarin has the Big East 2nd behind only the Big 12 in his conference ratings. Depending on how much you value strength at the top vs. depth, there's really no way you can argue it's worse than the 4th strongest conference this year. Right now bracketmatrix has 60% of the conference as 9-seeds or better. I don't know that they're that strong at the top, but it's a very deep conference.

[tmwiese55]

Yea I suppose they don't have any awful teams like the B1G has in their bottom 4 teams. But your comment just tells me they're just being highly regarded right, that's my point, they're being too highly regarded.

 

Cmon guys, their second best team is Butler. Nova, Butler, Gtwon, Providence, St Johns, Xavier, Depaul, Seton Hall, Creighton, Marquette. That is the current conference, this is a mid major conference. Half these teams weren't even in a major conference two years ago, take away the name Big East and this is just a step up from the MAC or MWC, Conf USA. Essentially they just poached the better teams from those conferences. Say what you will, nobody will fear any of these teams in the tourney and they might only get 4 teams in (likely 6 though). This was supported last year by their top two teams last year and high seeds Nova and Creighton both getting bounced in round of 32, and Nova's been bounced for several years in a row early. Of course the whole league can change that by doing something this year but i'll believe it when I see it.

[tmwiese55]

Saw an article on Grantland today hyping Nova so I looked a bit more into them. I'm sure none of us have watched them much but they're heavy on Junior/Seniors and have 6 different guys averaging 9 ppg. These are usually two big things I look for in tourney teams (aside from blue bloods like UK, KU, Duke who are a threat at all times), so there's a lot to like here. Again, if not in a 2nd tier conference and not have the Nova history I and most fans probably would be giving them more love. I'll definitely pay closer attention now, we'll see if they can make the sweet 16.

[Funketown]

So...Rick Barnes' Texas squad has two first rounders (one a probable lottery pick), and they look like they'll be in the NIT.

 

Lunardi moves Villanova up to a 1 seed with their win and Gonzaga's loss. I don't think Duke will be a 1-seed when all is said and done unless they win out; Virginia can probably lose once more (maybe twice?) and maintain their 1 seed.

 

Time to think about gearing up for Championship Week.

[Menotti80]

Lunardi moves Villanova up to a 1 seed with their win and Gonzaga's loss. I don't think Duke will be a 1-seed when all is said and done unless they win out; Virginia can probably lose once more (maybe twice?) and maintain their 1 seed.

 

Time to think about gearing up for Championship Week.

 

 

If Duke loses only 1 more game, they likely will keep a 1 seed unless both Villanova & Wisconsin win out. Duke's resume is very impressive.

[Funketown]

I think it comes down to whether the selection committee wants to give the ACC two #1 seeds. For my money, I view the resumes of Duke, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Villanova on a similar level. I suspect that if two of those go undefeated from here on out (and the others don't), they'll get the final two one seeds.

 

It seems like the country is top-heavy this season. Virginia got a #1 seed with 6 losses last season, Arizona got a #1 with 4 losses. Off the top of my head it seems like 4 losses in a major conference with a decent non-conference schedule is good enough for a 1-seed, but that won't do it this season.