2014-08-26 Brewers (Nelson) at Padres (Ross), 9:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 4-1]

[Bombers]

Running out of another inning with two of our best hitters coming up. Keep green lighting them, RRR, it's working!

+1

[DuWayne Steurer]

Running out of another inning with two of our best hitters coming up. Keep green lighting them, RRR, it's working!

 

The double bonus side effect is that it is also fewer pitches that a tough pitcher like Ross has to throw.

[TGOTJ]

I'm a proponent of advanced metrics, but just don't understand how they rank the Brewers highly.

 

I don't like the baserunning metrics for a variety of reasons. The biggest one is that they just tell you "this guy took an extra base" or "this guy got thrown out trying to take an extra base". There's no context. That doesn't tell you if it's truly "good baserunning" or "bad baserunning". It just measures extra bases and outs on the basepaths, nothing more.

 

Exactly. In the NFL, Belichek (and others, including McCarthy) have been lauded for their practicing of "situational football". NFL players have to react much more quickly than MLB players. It makes no sense to me that Davis couldn't (or wasn't told) that his run didn't mean anything. But, hey, we're aggressive!

[yfinn6]

Aside from a nice defensive play here and there, it's almost like Segura is trying to play his way off this team.

[coolcool]

Don't think Segura taking off there was too outrageous. If it works, you have a runner in scoring position. If not, your leadoff hitter is leading off.

[The stache]

Don't mean to ruffle too many feathers but Jimmy Nelson is a pretty average pitcher. If those David Price rumors had some backbone I would have more seriously considered dumping him off on them.

 

He is right now, yes. Some pitchers dominate right away. Some take a while to develop. I don't think Nelson will ever be Sandy Koufax, but you just don't give up on a guy with that kind of potential. I don't think he's a pretty average pitcher. He wasn't just good in AAA, he was dominant. Let him adjust a little more to the Majors, and learn how the game is played at this the highest level.

 

Come talk to me in two years. If Jimmy hasn't progressed, I'll gladly admit that I was wrong. I won't ever duck out to save face. I've watched a lot of baseball in my life, and I know the difference between just a warm body, and somebody with a makeup that has very good potential. I think he will be a good starter. There's nothing wrong with his mechanics right now. He's just not confident yet. Peralta showed some of that same thing early on, and now he's playing very well.

[Dmiles23]

Segura seems to have lost everything this year. He's been thrown out 9 times in 25 attempts now.

[TGOTJ]

Don't mean to ruffle too many feathers but Jimmy Nelson is a pretty average pitcher. If those David Price rumors had some backbone I would have more seriously considered dumping him off on them.

 

He is right now, yes. Some pitchers dominate right away. Some take a while to develop. I don't think Nelson will ever be Sandy Koufax, but you just don't give up on a guy with that kind of potential. I don't think he's a pretty average pitcher. He wasn't just good in AAA, he was dominant. Let him adjust a little more to the Majors, and learn how the game is played at this the highest level.

 

Come talk to me in two years. If Jimmy hasn't progressed, I'll gladly admit that I was wrong. I won't ever duck out to save face. I've watched a lot of baseball in my life, and I know the difference between just a warm body, and somebody with a makeup that has very good potential. I think he will be a good starter. There's nothing wrong with his mechanics right now. He's just not confident yet. Peralta showed some of that same thing early on, and now he's playing very well.

 

I hope you're correct. How would that apply to Segura?

[WinkelsasVsSoriano]

Don't think Segura taking off there was too outrageous. If it works, you have a runner in scoring position. If not, your leadoff hitter is leading off.

 

I would have been more OK with it if that leadoff hitter was a guy like Aoki - someone who's not likely to provide much power. But when you have one of your best home run threats up, I'm not a fan. Plus, Ross has a pretty good move to first.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I don't mind Segura stealing with 2 outs to get into scoring position.....I just mind that he's getting caught. He's now 16/9 in stolen bases. At that caught stealing rate, he might as well never try to steal, because he's costing the team runs. Even if you try to split it into context specific situations, he shouldn't steal if he's successful less than 67% of the time. When you add on the fact that you have one of your best XBH guys on the team at the plate, it's just not a good move.

[yfinn6]

Nice at-bat, Gomez.

[AdvantageSchneider]

Wily Peralta had a 4.37 ERA his first full season in the bigs. Nelson going into tonight's game has a 4.10 ERA.

 

I think he'll be fine.

[The stache]

 

I hope you're correct. How would that apply to Segura?

 

Oh man, I just don't know what's going on with Jean. I think he's frustrated beyond belief. And let's all keep in mind it was only a few weeks ago that his little boy died unexpectedly. That's not an excuse for what has been a horrible year-he was struggling before that. But wasn't his boy sick before he died, too?

 

I think the only answer I can give is that I haven't a clue. Usually when somebody is struggling, you can watch them for a while, and pick up where they're struggling, and what needs to be changed. Or, at least you can come up with a theory. I'm not a Major League Coach, of course, and the Brewers aren't ringing my phone off the hook. But again, when you've spent far too many hours watching the game over the years, you can identify some things. With Jean, I think what we're seeing is a complete mental breakdown. A few times he's warmed up a little, and once or twice it looked like he might be coming out of it. I think he was approaching .260 for a while. I'll have to check that. I think he was at .256 or .257. But since then he's regressed, not only at the plate, but on the base paths, and now in the field. He didn't suddenly become slow. He didn't become a 90 pound weakling. When you see somebody have a complete collapse like Jean's had, well, I'd bet good money that there's nothing physically wrong with him. No more than the bumps and bruises any Major Leaguer will have over a 162 game season. I think Jean's second guessing himself. I think he's lost his confidence. He says the right things in interviews. He knows what he's doing wrong. He acknowledges the problem. He just can't solve it. Pitchers made their adjustments to Jean's game. He hasn't been able to counter with adjustments of their own.

 

I think it's safe to say the "fatigue" issue that I and a few other forum members hypothesize had nothing to do with his struggles. And that's too bad. I would love to have an excuse that makes us all feel better. I like Jean Segura a lot. My heart aches for the loss he's still dealing with. But ultimately, you need to put people on the field that will help you win, and Jean Segura is doing nothing right now to help this team. He's a black hole at the plate. He's making mistakes in the field. And he's a burner that's getting thrown out once in every three stolen base attempts.

 

He needs to sit, and go down if he still can. He needs to find what's wrong, because having him try to work it out is clearly not working, and it's just frustrating him more.

[yfinn6]

Aramis at 2-0: slider (check swing), slider (swing), slider (weak grounder).

 

None of those pitches in the strike zone. Oy vey..

[TGOTJ]

 

I hope you're correct. How would that apply to Segura?

 

Oh man, I just don't know what's going on with Jean. I think he's frustrated beyond belief. And let's all keep in mind it was only a few weeks ago that his little boy died unexpectedly. That's not an excuse for what has been a horrible year-he was struggling before that. But wasn't his boy sick before he died, too?

 

I think the only answer I can give is that I haven't a clue. Usually when somebody is struggling, you can watch them for a while, and pick up where they're struggling, and what needs to be changed. Or, at least you can come up with a theory. I'm not a Major League Coach, of course, and the Brewers aren't ringing my phone off the hook. But again, when you've spent far too many hours watching the game over the years, you can identify some things. With Jean, I think what we're seeing is a complete mental breakdown. A few times he's warmed up a little, and once or twice it looked like he might be coming out of it. I think he was approaching .260 for a while. I'll have to check that. I think he was at .256 or .257. But since then he's regressed, not only at the plate, but on the base paths, and now in the field. He didn't suddenly become slow. He didn't become a 90 pound weakling. When you see somebody have a complete collapse like Jean's had, well, I'd bet good money that there's nothing physically wrong with him. No more than the bumps and bruises any Major Leaguer will have over a 162 game season. I think Jean's second guessing himself. I think he's lost his confidence. He says the right things in interviews. He knows what he's doing wrong. He acknowledges the problem. He just can't solve it. Pitchers made their adjustments to Jean's game. He hasn't been able to counter with adjustments of their own.

 

I think it's safe to say the "fatigue" issue that I and a few other forum members hypothesize had nothing to do with his struggles. And that's too bad. I would love to have an excuse that makes us all feel better. I like Jean Segura a lot. My heart aches for the loss he's still dealing with. But ultimately, you need to put people on the field that will help you win, and Jean Segura is doing nothing right now to help this team. He's a black hole at the plate. He's making mistakes in the field. And he's a burner that's getting thrown out once in every three stolen base attempts.

 

He needs to sit, and go down if he still can. He needs to find what's wrong, because having him try to work it out is clearly not working, and it's just frustrating him more.

 

I'm a Dad, and cannot even begin to comprehend what he's going through. I'm most concerned with his hit tool - the lack of power, the overwhelming amount of 6-3 groundouts. This era is shaping up to be a pitching /defense era, and I think defense will be valued. You made a great post on Belanger (I remember him!), but I don't think Jean's defensive skills are on in the same zip code. He's going to have to hit a little to stay in the majors. Let's hope Arcia continues to develop.

[trwi7]

The problem with Segura is easy. He swings at everything. Why throw him anything he can hit when you can throw pitches out of the zone and have him get himself out?

[The stache]

Jean came into June hitting .269. June is where the wheels started coming off. He hit .196 for the month, with a slash line of .239/.294/.533. The Brewers managed to go 18-9 with Segura getting 20 hit in 112 plate appearances. He had 2 triples and 2 home runs. No doubles. And he stole only 4 bases in 6 attempts.

 

In July, he was worse. He hit .179. His slash line was .220/.269/.489. Ouch.

 

He's been better in August. He's hitting .255. 13 for 51 with 2 doubles. But he hasn't stolen a base in the month on August 26th. His slash line has been .339/.294/.633. That would be at least less painful if he was playing solid defense and stealing bases. But he's not.

 

For the last three months, here's his baseball card. You might want to tell the kids to leave the room.

 

http://imageshack.com/a/img537/4039/JexbJj.png

 

Ouch.

[TGOTJ]

The problem with Segura is easy. He swings at everything. Why throw him anything he can hit when you can throw pitches out of the zone and have him get himself out?

 

I think that's exactly, and I think that's exactly why Weeks never reached the heights a lot of people thought he would. Slider low and away - swinging K.

[The stache]

Aramis at 2-0: slider (check swing), slider (swing), slider (weak grounder).

 

None of those pitches in the strike zone. Oy vey..

 

Ya, I was alluding to this earlier tonight. A few times tonight the Brewers were in a position to get a walk, and they ended up striking out on some terrible pitches. Braun was ahead 2-0, I think, and he eventually struck out on a ball that was about two inches off the ground. And ARam's at bat was even worse.

 

Ramirez gets a pass from me tonight. He didn't play a great game, but he's been so on all month, he can hit the showers. Most of the rest of the team should donate their game checks.

[The stache]

The problem with Segura is easy. He swings at everything. Why throw him anything he can hit when you can throw pitches out of the zone and have him get himself out?

 

Exactly. Tell the shortstop to get ready for a weak grounder.

[trwi7]

The problem with Segura is easy. He swings at everything. Why throw him anything he can hit when you can throw pitches out of the zone and have him get himself out?

 

I think that's exactly, and I think that's exactly why Weeks never reached the heights a lot of people thought he would. Slider low and away - swinging K.

 

Rickie's problem was that he was too selective. He would take a couple pitches that he could hit and fall behind and then strike out on breaking balls off the plate. Weeks at least knows the strike zone. Segura doesn't have a clue.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The problem with Segura is easy. He swings at everything. Why throw him anything he can hit when you can throw pitches out of the zone and have him get himself out?

 

 

Except that his OOZ swing % has only gone up marginally from last year to this year. Last year it was 34.5%, this year it's 37.1%. That doesn't tell the story of how he went from a .750-ish OPS guy to a sub .600 OPS guy.

 

His gb/fb/ld ratios are all about the same. His HR per FB ratio is down (almost by half). His strikeouts are actually down. I think everyone knows he's "rolling over to shortstop", the question is 'why'?

[wildcat83]

Reading all of the Segura posts... Can you imagine the discussion if he was extended last year when there was talk about it. I don't think they ever were close, but there had to be some discussion for it to leak out publicly. How bad would this year look if he had signed an extension.

 

I haven't given up on him, I think he will hit for average next year, never going to be a power threat though...

[DuWayne Steurer]

Another terrible beard. They should add one run to anyone's E.R.A. who has a terrible beard like that.

[The stache]

http://millerpolooza.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/hi-res-1402327_display_image1.jpg

 

On this day in 1987, Paul Molitor went 0-4 in a 1-0 10 inning Brewers win over the Cleveland Indians. That ended Molitor's hitting streak at 39 games. Molitor's streak was the 7th longest in Major League History, and the longest in the American League since 1941 when Joe DiMaggio set the Major League record by hitting in 56 straight games. DiMaggio's streak ended on July 17th. DiMaggio, being interviewed after the game, said that having the streak end cost him $10,000, as the Heinz Corporation would have paid him $10,000 to endorse their Heinz 57 product if he'd hit in 57 straight. The next day, DiMaggio started another streak, hitting in 16 straight games. Incredibly, that meant DiMaggio hit safely in 72 of 73 games.