Off season: Gallardo for Napoli?

[monkeyman343434]

With the Red Sox signing Rusney Castillo, they've got quite a logjam of hitters. Cespedis, Castillo, Victorino, Craig, Ortiz, Betts, Bradley Jr, Pedroia, Holt, Middlebrooks, 10 guys for 7 spots (excluding SS which I would say is Xander's spot and C, because I don't believe any of them catch).

The Sox dealt away two of their main starters at the deadline this year, so they might be looking for a stopgap SP until some of their prospects are more ready.

Seems like this could be a win-win for both sides, each team trading from an area of strength for an area of weakness, and i believe they would both make about the same $ next year and both with next year as the last year of their contracts (assuming the Brewers pick up the Gallardo option)

Thoughts?

[monty57]

I'd hate that deal. If we trade Gallardo or Lohse (the guys who will be FAs after next season), I want someone who will be with the team for more than one year. If we can get a good young player with a lot of team control, I'm alright trading a SP away. If not, then we should just hold onto the depth.

[jerichoholicninja]

Napoli is probably done for being a productive everyday player. It seems his degenerative hip issue is finally popping up as little issues that are keeping him out of the lineup on a somewhat regular basis. I don't think a Gallardo trade will return what most posters are hoping for but he is definitely worth more than Napoli.

[Fear The Chorizo]

you could make a very good argument that Gallardo has been the Brewers' best starting pitcher this season...he's had scuffles for sure, but he's been very, very good of late - typical of what his career #'s bear out. I'm not sure why the Brewers wouldn't simply exercise his option and plan to put him right back towards the top of the 2015 rotation.

 

Seems like we have a big pile of SP depth heading into next year, but A LOT can go happen to eliminate it in a short amount of time.

 

And a Gallardo trade over the offseason would get a pretty good return...just not good enough for me to be willing to move him. Possibly at the trade deadline next July if the Brewers are out of it. I'd be willing to give up a little value in return by waiting to see how next year's team looks.

[TheCrew07]

If you're going to trade Gallardo you don't wait for the trading deadline next year, you move him when he's at his peak value.

[reillymcshane]

I'd pass, but it's not a horrible idea. I like Napoli. He dislocated his finger in April, and played with that all year, so there might be some lingering issues. I guess, at worse he's a .260ish hitter with a .360ish OBP and 15-20 HR. That's pretty good.

 

However, I'm not thrilled with the trade idea because I'm not on board with dealing a starter at this time. Our depth isn't good enough to count on a rotation of Lohse, Garza, Peralta, Fiers and Nelson - with Jungmann the next guy on the totem poll (unless Thornburg or Smith is moved into the rotation).

 

Plus, I'd rather get a guy to fill the slot for at least a couple of years. Maybe spend the money on a guy like LaRoche or Cuddyer for two years. Or try a younger guy who's been blocked by other players in the past.

 

It might be the kind of move you make next summer if 1B is a problem, and we feel okay about the rotation and depth. But now, I'd pass. I know 1B looks like a black hole, but a guy like Reynolds isn't that bad (he has a 1.7 WAR) - especially for $3 million or so.

[monkeyman343434]

I see the contracts of Napoli/Fiers basically washing out with Gallardo/Reynolds. And I see the improvement from Reynolds to Napoli as being a much greater improvement than the drop off from Gallardo to Fiers.

 

Napoli currently has a OPS+ of 132 this season, compared to Reynolds at 96, according to baseball reference. Fangraphs has Napoli with a 2.4 WAR and Reynolds at 1.7. Also has Gallardo at 1.7 WAR for 2014, so would be getting a "more valuable" player in the swap.

 

I think a Lohse, Garza, Peralta, Fiers, Nelson rotation is a really solid, but not great rotation with a much improved lineup. I would be a big fan of Napoli hitting 5 or 6. Gomez, Lucroy, Braun, A-Ram, Napoli, Krush, Scooter, Segura.

 

I also wouldn't be opposed to seeing Jason Rogers at 1b next year as well.

[HiAndTight]

If you're going to trade Gallardo you don't wait for the trading deadline next year, you move him when he's at his peak value.

 

 

Right, but he's saying he wants to keep Gallardo on next years team and IF things don't go well, then maybe you trade him at the deadline so you can get something for him.

 

And I don't know that this off-season will be his peak value. It's a fluid situation. A team may be desperate for a start and with all the teams that find themselves in contention there are far fewer sellers with the additional wild card than in years past. So a team going into the season with some young starters may not give up as much for Gallardo in the off-season before injuries as they might when they find themselves with a pitcher or two done for the year while they're in contention.

[HiAndTight]

Napoli is probably done for being a productive everyday player. It seems his degenerative hip issue is finally popping up as little issues that are keeping him out of the lineup on a somewhat regular basis. I don't think a Gallardo trade will return what most posters are hoping for but he is definitely worth more than Napoli.

 

 

Not really. He's got a finger issue that cost him 15 days on the DL at the end of May, but that's about it. He's still very productive at 1st base and is having as good, if not a better year than last year.

 

Plus he's walking about 16 pct of the time.

 

And his hip injury really isn't that big of a deal. It's not only very common(the Packers failed Favre for it before Ron Wolf went down and told the Doctors to pass him) but as someone who has it, you can go a long time without experiencing symptoms which is the case with him. He didn't know about that he even had avascular necrosisn in his hip. He probably could have continued catching, but that would have sped up the process.

[JohnBriggs12]

It's too early to gauge the market. One benefit of dealing either Gallardo or Lohse (who I prefer) is for significant salary relief assuming the return is prospects. They may have to spend in the closer market. If they can bring back Reynolds and see Clark as an option, why pay for one year of a diminishing Napoli?

[HiAndTight]

It's too early to gauge the market. One benefit of dealing either Gallardo or Lohse (who I prefer) is for significant salary relief assuming the return is prospects. They may have to spend in the closer market. If they can bring back Reynolds and see Clark as an option, why pay for one year of a diminishing Napoli?

 

 

Again, what makes you think Napoli is diminishing? I understand that you believe the money could be best spent elsewhere, but Napoli is still a very productive player. His hip hasn't caused him any problems yet(aside from moving him out from behind home plate as a precautionary move for his career). He's pretty much the same offensive player.

[DHonks]

The Brewers opened the season 9-deep in their rotation with Gallardo, Lohse, Garza, Peralta, Estrada, Thornberg, Smith, Fiers, Nelson, and Burgos. Obviously Burgos has been let go and Thorny can't be counted on in 2015, but that's a lot of options. The player I would most shop is Yo, given a couple of things. First of all, I don't know anything about his love for the organization or city. He might be willing to extend at a fair price. But realistically, a quality Mexican-American pitcher would be really desired in Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, LA, or San Diego. We could probably get a pretty good return considering he is only signed for 2015 and his number have been in decline.

 

I like the Yo for Napoli idea. What about Yo for Andre Ethier (and cash)? He's due $53.5 million for the next 3 years (plus 2018 option). If we could get the Dodgers to eat about $10 million of that, we could acquire him to play 1b (he's only played two games there). He's fallen out of the rotation in LA, would provide balance to the lineup, has good career OBP. Why would the Dodgers do this? So they aren't paying $53.5 million to a bench player.

 

Think we could throw together a package to re-acquire Fielder from the Rangers?

[jerichoholicninja]

Yo's being Mexican adds absolutely nothing to his value.

[AZBrewCrew]

Yo's being Mexican adds absolutely nothing to his value.

I see what DHonks meant by his post. Latin American athletes are kind of like "ambassadors" to the Hispanic community in many of the cities he mentioned. Gerardo Parra might not seem like a big deal in Milwaukee, but he was a pretty big fan favorite here in Phoenix and especially within the Hispanic community here, same with Miguel Montero

[DHonks]

AzBrewCrew understands. Everytime Yo throws in Houston or Phoenix, there's tons of excitement that is created. People have speculated for years about how he'd be a great addition to the teams. The Mexican-American communities don't really identify with Latin players from throughout the Caribbean, Latin America, or South America. They tend to idolize the best Mexican players. Given that teams are for-profit, many have speculated how many Gallardo jerseys would be sold if he pitched for SD, LA, Hou, TX, or Phx. Therefore, I would speculate we could potentially use them to get more out of those particular clubs.

[HiAndTight]

AzBrewCrew understands. Everytime Yo throws in Houston or Phoenix, there's tons of excitement that is created. People have speculated for years about how he'd be a great addition to the teams. The Mexican-American communities don't really identify with Latin players from throughout the Caribbean, Latin America, or South America. They tend to idolize the best Mexican players. Given that teams are for-profit, many have speculated how many Gallardo jerseys would be sold if he pitched for SD, LA, Hou, TX, or Phx. Therefore, I would speculate we could potentially use them to get more out of those particular clubs.

 

 

Who are these people who have speculated about how many jersey's Gallardo would sell there? I could see if he was a transcendent player. Ie, Ichiro playing in Seattle, or Matsui playing in New York. The Asian fan base you could gain would be substantial. Fernando pitching in LA. But Gallardo has merely been good. I sincerely doubt teams are lining up and speculating at the impact at #2/3 pitcher could have on their bottom line. I'd also like to see some evidence that there is more excitement created when Yo pitches in AZ or Texas because it's Gallardo? I've neither seen, nor heard anything beyond his family and friends going to the games as he was born in Texas.

 

If that were the case, then you would have thought that those teams would have had more interest in K-Rod, or a guy like Soria, both players of Mexican decent.

 

And Gallardo was raised in the US.

 

I think the extent of the value we're going to get out of Gallardo is what value he brings to the team based on his ability to pitch, not because he was born of Mexican decent.

[DHonks]

K-Rod isn't Mexican, he's Venezuelan. Soria...never realized he was from Mexico. But he's also a closer. A lot of the speculation for AZ was back when Darron Sutton and Mark Grace were on broadcasts. In 2013 the Dbacks thought they would land Gallardo and much was made about him being a great fit both for the club and the fan base. We know the Rangers and Astros aggressively pursued him in previous years as well. Maybe it's living in Arizona, but I've heard people for years talking about wanting to acquire him and how he'd make sense.

 

At this point I see Yo's option getting picked up and the Brewers considering dealing him. Someone might be desperate for pitching. I'm scared of his declining velocity and K's. He's got a WHIP below career norms, but it's aided by his best career walk rate. I swear I remember him pounding the zone early in his career, with tons of those K's on fastballs looking. Perhaps he can continue to reinvent himself as a pitcher.

[MNBrew]

I don't care about Gallardo's nationality or residency. He's a pitcher of increasing inconsistency & decreasing reliability. He's either totally hot (enough to last 6-7 IP, anyway) or totally lousy. For all his potential, he really hasn't given the team much of a chance to win in way, way too many of his games. And there's zero "clutch" factor with him, either.

 

I hate to say it because there are lots of games where he's gotten quite good results -- his 3.61 ERA in spite of his recent debacles means there's been lots of decent pitching along the way -- but I think I'd just rather risk taking a step backwards by trading him for a reasonably decent return vs. dealing with another year of way too many games like this one tonight.

[JohnBriggs12]

Yo's value is sinking fast. To the point where the Brewers may decide they can better use that money elsewhere.

[LouisEly]

Yo's being Mexican adds absolutely nothing to his value.

Just curious, have you ever lived in the southwestern part of the U.S.? And have you watched the ESPN 30-for-30 about Fernando Valenzuela?

 

Funny how the people who live/lived in the southwestern U.S. think it adds value. Those who live/lived there know how important cultural identity is within the Hispanic community.

[jerichoholicninja]

Yo's being Mexican adds absolutely nothing to his value.

Just curious, have you ever lived in the southwestern part of the U.S.? And have you watched the ESPN 30-for-30 about Fernando Valenzuela?

 

Funny how the people who live/lived in the southwestern U.S. think it adds value. Those who live/lived there know how important cultural identity is within the Hispanic community.

 

Yo is an above average player at best. He's not Fernando, he's not Adrian Gonzalez, he's not even Vinny Castilla. To use a famous sarcastic wrestling quote, "That'll put a lot of butts in the seats."

[3and2Fastball]

Yo's ERA would go down quite impressively if he pitched in San Diego

[HiAndTight]

Yo's being Mexican adds absolutely nothing to his value.

Just curious, have you ever lived in the southwestern part of the U.S.? And have you watched the ESPN 30-for-30 about Fernando Valenzuela?

 

Funny how the people who live/lived in the southwestern U.S. think it adds value. Those who live/lived there know how important cultural identity is within the Hispanic community.

 

 

Gallardo isn't even the best Mexican pitcher in baseball and you're comparing him to Fernando?

 

One player came in and at 20 years old won a Rookie of the Year award, Cy Young, Silver Slugger and led his team to a WORLD SERIES.

 

The other is 28 and is a average #3 pitcher. Sorry, I don't see what the two have to do with each other.

[LouisEly]

Gallardo isn't even the best Mexican pitcher in baseball and you're comparing him to Fernando?

Go back and read what I wrote. I asked if you had seen the ESPN 30 for 30 film about Fernando Valenzuela. If you have seen the film, you will understand what I am talking about.

 

The Hispanic community HATED the Dodgers because of how many Hispanics were evicted, many with force, from Chavez Ravine to make room for Dodgers stadium. Hispanics didn't go to Dodgers games until Fernando arrived - cultural identity is so important that Fernando, because he is Mexican, turned an entire community of Mexicans/Hispanics from Dodgers haters into Dodgers fans because he is Mexican. That is what the film is about. Watch it and you will understand why Gallardo would have added value to a team in the Southwest.

[HiAndTight]

Gallardo isn't even the best Mexican pitcher in baseball and you're comparing him to Fernando?

Go back and read what I wrote. I asked if you had seen the ESPN 30 for 30 film about Fernando Valenzuela. If you have seen the film, you will understand what I am talking about.

 

The Hispanic community HATED the Dodgers because of how many Hispanics were evicted, many with force, from Chavez Ravine to make room for Dodgers stadium. Hispanics didn't go to Dodgers games until Fernando arrived - cultural identity is so important that Fernando, because he is Mexican, turned an entire community of Mexicans/Hispanics from Dodgers haters into Dodgers fans because he is Mexican. That is what the film is about. Watch it and you will understand why Gallardo would have added value to a team in the Southwest.

 

Yeah, and that was almost 34 YEARS ago and I don't see any correlation here. I've also seen 30 for 30 films about the civil rights movement and African Americans in sports from the 1960's. Both are important to understand in a historical sense, but to try and pretend you could replicate the cultural phenomenon you had with Fernando-mania with Yovani Gallardo is absurd to me. Gallardo would have to be a mix of Clayton Kershaw in the regular season and Madison Bumgarner in the post-season to gin up anything resembling that level of enthusiasm.

 

Not to mention, you said it in your post. The Dodgers HAD problems with the Hispanic community...30-40 years ago. They don't now. Now they have Adrian Gonzalez, Puig, and whatever player they can get that will help them win.

 

Again, one player was a 20 year old PHENOM who won a Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, Silver Slugger, was top 5 in the MVP voting and...again, let his team to a world series...vs...Yovani Gallardo, a 28 year old #3 pitcher.

 

This is a argument that just isn't nearly as a relevant today among two players who aren't even in the same stratosphere.

 

You honestly think on a team with a 250 million dollar payroll filled with superstars, adding Gallardo is going to be a significant boost in ticket sales for that team? I think that's almost insulting to Mexican/Hispanic Dodger fans. I'm sure they'd be more excited to see Kershaw pitch for them or Greinke than Gallardo if they're fans of the team.