Six Man Rotation?

[MadScientist]

I just expect Fiers to return to normal levels

 

Except Fiers has no normal level. He is either the best starting pitcher in baseball when he's on a stretch like this, or he is not effective at all (like the end of the 2012 season.)

 

Ok, then I'd say that there is too much of a risk that he will slip to ineffective to put into the playoff rotation. The last spot for the playoffs should come down to Garza or Nelson, and while Garza was starting to get into a groove before the injury, Nelson has been consistently good in every game except the one marred by Segura's tragedy. I just think Nelson is the better option.

[SRB]

Playoff rotation should be: 1) Garza, 2) Fiers, 3) Gallardo, 4) Lohse

 

I trust Peralta more than anyone in our rotation because power arms win in October.

 

Is it power arms that win, or strikeout pitchers? Peralta throws faster than almost any SP in the majors, but for whatever reason he is not a big strikeout pitcher (yet). Honestly, Fiers is the only member of the rotation who racks up strikeouts. Replacing Lohse with Peralta might be wise though, I agree.

[brewcrewdue80]

Not ever going to happen.

[Bombers]

Look at Jimmy Nelson's splits by innings

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=nelsoji02&year=2014&t=p

His ERA is low from inning 1-4 (under 2.5). Inning 5 is 5.68, inning 6 is 7.94, inning 7 is 9.00

 

His problem has always been he doesn't have a 3rd pitch. Those numbers, albeit small sample, and the fact they won't let him throw much more than 200 innings this year (he is at 153); he looks like a prime candidate to help out our bullpen.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yea, with every start it is looking more and more like that.

[torts]

I am totally okay with that, let Fiers take whatever extra starts are needed, let Nelson wind down a pretty great 2014 season without overdoing it.

[Surhoff5]

Look at Jimmy Nelson's splits by innings

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=nelsoji02&year=2014&t=p

His ERA is low from inning 1-4 (under 2.5). Inning 5 is 5.68, inning 6 is 7.94, inning 7 is 9.00

 

His problem has always been he doesn't have a 3rd pitch. Those numbers, albeit small sample, and the fact they won't let him throw much more than 200 innings this year (he is at 153); he looks like a prime candidate to help out our bullpen.

 

This is exactly how I feel. I love Nelson and think he is going to be a great starter. However, with only throwing two pitches right now, he would immediately solve our "8th" inning guy role.

[FVBrewerFan]

he would immediately solve our "8th" inning guy role

 

I wouldn't go that far. He COULD solve that need, and certainly worth trying. But no guarantee he can be that lights-out, dominant 8th inning guy lots of other teams seem to have.

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

That's where our managers have gotten out maneuvered in the playoffs, they manage like it's the regular season sticking with guys because he's "proven" even though he's clearly slumping... Suppan in '08 and Marcum in '11.

 

 

In the 2011 NLCS, Cardinals starters pitched more than 5 innings zero times. Tony (for as hated as he is), NEVER hesitated to pull his starter the very second he showed any signs of losing control or ability to get outs in the playoffs.

[logan82]

The only reason to go with a 6 man rotation is if all your starters are equally good. That is almost never the case. Don't give any more innings to a lesser pitcher than you have to.

[Fear The Chorizo]

the 2011 Cardinals also were in the midst of an unconscious hot streak of offensive production from mid-september through that postseason. the trade they made to remake their bullpen and give LaRussa what seemed like 30 relief options and that offensive hot streak were what won them the world series, let alone even squeak into the playoffs, that year for sure.

[wildcat83]

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/90571098/young-aces-playoffs-wacha-gray-gausman-nelson-walker#!bHBo3d

 

Jimmy Nelson mentioned in this article by Jim Callis. Seemed as good of a thread as any to link it to. The sentence where he claims Nelson has the best stuff of the rotation seems a bit of a stretch to me...

[Funketown]

The only reason to go with a 6 man rotation is if all your starters are equally good. That is almost never the case. Don't give any more innings to a lesser pitcher than you have to.

 

Probably something that isn't worth anybody's time look up, but can anybody remember a team with more "#3 starters" than the Brewers right now? You could probably make a reasonable argument for any order 1 - 4 between Garza, Lohse, Peralta, and Gallardo; ERA's are all within a quarter of a run of each other (3.32 - 3.58). On top of that, career ERA's of Fiers and Nelson (using career due to sample size, still obviously small with Nelson) are 3.75 and 3.59, respectively.

 

With the race this close, I probably wouldn't mess with a 6-man rotation, but I'd be hard-pressed to take Fiers out of the rotation right now given his performance. Anybody have an idea on Nelson's innings cap this season? He's thrown 150-160 each of the past few years and he's already at 158, on pace for probably 190 - 200 if he pitches on regular rest.

[monty57]

Having everyone pitching well is a good thing. It allows for Garza to sit until he is fully healthy rather than rushing back only to re-injure himself. I expect that things will work themselves out, allowing everyone with minor "dings" that pitchers may normally pitch through to heal up. But if everyone is healthy I think Nelson makes the most sense to move to the pen during the season, with Fiers joining him once the playoffs begin.

[folly412]

 

That's where our managers have gotten out maneuvered in the playoffs, they manage like it's the regular season sticking with guys because he's "proven" even though he's clearly slumping... Suppan in '08 and Marcum in '11.

 

 

In the 2011 NLCS, Cardinals starters pitched more than 5 innings zero times. Tony (for as hated as he is), NEVER hesitated to pull his starter the very second he showed any signs of losing control or ability to get outs in the playoffs.

 

Smart managing in the playoffs. It's no longer a long season; in the regular season a pitcher who gives up two runs in the third inning is left in and allowed to play through, rolling the dice on whether he gives up three more runs or goes seven without giving up another run.

 

In the playoffs, the next hard hit ball has to be enough to yank him since you have to keep the best chance to win today, not tomorrow or next week. Also why it's not necessarily correct that we're adding two more 8th inning right-handed options to the bullpen come playoff time...they're probably needed more as 5th-7th inning "second starters". Though I'd love for one of the starters to help bridge the gap - we're not even close to a version of the 2011 "plan" where the starter goes five, then Hawkins, Saito, K-Rod, Axford to end it.

[logan82]

The only reason to go with a 6 man rotation is if all your starters are equally good. That is almost never the case. Don't give any more innings to a lesser pitcher than you have to.

 

Probably something that isn't worth anybody's time look up, but can anybody remember a team with more "#3 starters" than the Brewers right now? You could probably make a reasonable argument for any order 1 - 4 between Garza, Lohse, Peralta, and Gallardo; ERA's are all within a quarter of a run of each other (3.32 - 3.58). On top of that, career ERA's of Fiers and Nelson (using career due to sample size, still obviously small with Nelson) are 3.75 and 3.59, respectively.

 

With the race this close, I probably wouldn't mess with a 6-man rotation, but I'd be hard-pressed to take Fiers out of the rotation right now given his performance. Anybody have an idea on Nelson's innings cap this season? He's thrown 150-160 each of the past few years and he's already at 158, on pace for probably 190 - 200 if he pitches on regular rest.

Starting Fiers takes innings away from the top 4 who are obviously better than Fiers. Leaving both Fiers and Nelson in the rotation also means more relief innings for lesser pitchers in high leverage situations.

[JohnBriggs12]

If they went to a 4 man rotation the rest of the season, Fiers should be one of the four.

 

It's all about what guys are doing right now, not 3 months ago, or over a career.

[Bombers]

If they went to a 4 man rotation the rest of the season, Fiers should be one of the four.

 

It's all about what guys are doing right now, not 3 months ago, or over a career.

I just don't see RRR taking two guys coming back from injury (Lohse and Garza) and give them only 4 days rest between starts. He already Garza is part of his 5 man rotation when he returns. And he specifically mentioned 5 man rotation. Here is what I see happening:

 

Lohse pitches tonight, followed by Nelson, Gallardo, Peralta, and then Fiers. Garza is scheduled for a full bullpen Session on Tuesday 8/26. He will then go down and do 1 re-hab stint in the minors this weekend. After that he will be inserted into Nelson's spot for the game vs St. Louis at Miller Park on Saturday Sept 6th. (Nelson's spot in the order. Nelson will then go to the pen) Rotation to close the year will line up as Lohse, Garza, Gallardo, Peralta, Fiers. With Lohse, Garza and Gallardo set to face the Cardinals at their house during that series from Sept 16-18. Final 2 games of the year would line up with Lohse / Garza starting those games vs the Cubs. October awaits. Go Brewers!

[JohnBriggs12]

If they went to a 4 man rotation the rest of the season, Fiers should be one of the four.

 

It's all about what guys are doing right now, not 3 months ago, or over a career.

I just don't see RRR taking two guys coming back from injury (Lohse and Garza) and give them only 4 days rest between starts. He already Garza is part of his 5 man rotation when he returns. And he specifically mentioned 5 man rotation. Here is what I see happening:

 

Lohse pitches tonight, followed by Nelson, Gallardo, Peralta, and then Fiers. Garza is scheduled for a full bullpen Session on Tuesday 8/26. He will then go down and do 1 re-hab stint in the minors this weekend. After that he will be inserted into Nelson's spot for the game vs St. Louis at Miller Park on Saturday Sept 6th. (Nelson's spot in the order. Nelson will then go to the pen) Rotation to close the year will line up as Lohse, Garza, Gallardo, Peralta, Fiers. With Lohse, Garza and Gallardo set to face the Cardinals at their house during that series from Sept 16-18. Final 2 games of the year would line up with Lohse / Garza starting those games vs the Cubs. October awaits. Go Brewers!

 

You obviously missed my point. My point was that Fiers should stay in the rotation regardless whether its a 6 man, 5 man or even 4 man. The 4 man rotation was used to make the point, not to suggest it be done or that it was a realistic option.

[Bombers]

You obviously missed my point. My point was that Fiers should stay in the rotation regardless whether its a 6 man, 5 man or even 4 man. The 4 man rotation was used to make the point, not to suggest it be done or that it was a realistic option.

Ah- got ya. Yes, I agree. He should be left in the rotation and Nelson should be pulled.

[DoubleSwitch]

All I'm going to say is that I don't envy Roenicke for having to make this decision, and potentially setting playoff rotation. This years rotation is really weird, and it's hard to argue that any one of them is a better pitcher than the others.

[reillymcshane]

Assuming Garza and Lohse come back healthy, I think Nelson simply gets shifted to the bullpen. With the way Fiers has been pitching, it's crazy to move him out of the rotation.

 

And Nelson might help a lot in the pen. We need another good arm down the stretch. He might be it.

[TooLiveBrew]

Nelson out of the bullpen will probably mean a heavy sinking fastball around 98-99, with a nasty slider to go with it. That's exactly the kind of power arm you want in a late-game role. I think he's the ideal candidate out of the 5-6 starters to move to the 'pen.