Six Man Rotation?

[FVBrewerFan]

Lohse should be back in a few days, and latest news is Garza should be back in roughly two weeks. That leaves us with 6 starters, the proverbial "good problem to have."

 

Would it make sense to go with a 6 man rotation in September? All of the starters on track to pitch a huge amount of innings, and this may be a way to keep them fresh down the stretch and into the playoffs. Plus, I don't think there's much difference now from 1-6.

 

I still have flashbcks to what happened the last two playoff appearances. Sheets and Marcum had dead arms by the time October rolled around. Fiers seemed to burn out in 2012 at the end of the year. Nelson is going to be way over the innings he pitched last year at this pace.

 

If they went to the six man rotation, it would save a couple starts for each guy and have them all fresh for October. The only downside I can see is changing the routine, and I just don't know how big of a factor that really is. What do you think?

[Outlander]

I would be fine with that but I do recall Lohse and perhaps others not really like the idea of 6 days rest. There are a couple of off days as well in September so I don't know if Roenicke would really want the rock the boat with the vets and would feel more comfortable sending Fiers of Nelson to the bullpen.

[Bombers]

I agree with Outlander. Ultimately it is up to Lohse, Garza and Yo. If they want it, then they will get it but chances are slim. Another good question is; name your playoffs rotation. Clearly, Lohse, Garza and Yo would be starters. But then you only need 1 more for that 4th game. Looking at the first inning splits of Nelson vs Peralta, I would lean towards starting Nelson. Then stick Peralta in the pen and he can be used every day. Maybe that doesn't translate and he wouldn't be used to doing that. But anyway you slice it, come playoff time - you only need 4 starters.

 

First Inning:

Peralta - 25 IP / 1.08 ERA / .205 AVG / .290 OBP / .250 SLG / .540 OPS

Nelson - 7 IP / 2.57 ERA / .200 AVG / .310 OBP / .200 SLG / .510 OPS

Fiers - 3 IP / 0.00 ERA / .100 AVG / .182 OBP / .200 SLG / .382 OPS

[JohnBriggs12]

I would be fine with that but I do recall Lohse and perhaps others not really like the idea of 6 days rest. There are a couple of off days as well in September so I don't know if Roenicke would really want the rock the boat with the vets and would feel more comfortable sending Fiers of Nelson to the bullpen.

 

The Brewers play 17 straight days starting on August 29th. A 6 man rotation means 5 days of rest between starts not 6 for that period. Rock the boat with the vets? Really? I like to think they are a bit more professional than that. They see what Fiers and Nelson are doing. Lohse isn't the manager, and besides since the break, he's been the least effective starter. The points about the staff being gassed in 2011 are excellent. Gallardo's shown the past couple of years he's benefitted with some time between starts.

[bork]

I could see Fiers and Nelson piggybacking. Nelson will likely have to skip a start or two to keep his innings from getting too high. No one else really has that concern.

 

One wildcard is Peralta's chase of 20 wins. He has 7 starts left, but could start on the last day of the season, if they pitch him every 5 days and skip someone with the days off in September. I could see them giving him that extra start if he has a chance at 20 wins.

 

The other wild card is whether the last games of the season are fighting for the division, or resting up and lining up starters for the playoffs.

[TooLiveBrew]

I would be fine with that but I do recall Lohse and perhaps others not really like the idea of 6 days rest. There are a couple of off days as well in September so I don't know if Roenicke would really want the rock the boat with the vets and would feel more comfortable sending Fiers of Nelson to the bullpen.

 

The Brewers play 17 straight days starting on August 29th. A 6 man rotation means 5 days of rest between starts not 6 for that period. Rock the boat with the vets? Really? I like to think they are a bit more professional than that. They see what Fiers and Nelson are doing. Lohse isn't the manager, and besides since the break, he's been the least effective starter. The points about the staff being gassed in 2011 are excellent. Gallardo's shown the past couple of years he's benefitted with some time between starts.

So here you go again with the 6 game sample size. In 4 of those six games, his ERA is 1.75. Prior to rolling his ankle, 'since the AS break', his ERA was 1.83. He's had two bad starts, which happens over the course of a season... especially when a player injures himself like Lohse did. Did his performance suffered after rolling his ankle? Not surprisingly, yes.

 

In the month of July his ERA was 3.03. On the year it's 3.49. The idea that you've uncovered some trend that Lohse is now the weakest SP link isn't backed up by the facts.

[JohnBriggs12]

Fiers (3 straight dominant starts) and Nelson (5 straight quality starts) don't need to be piggybacked. If anything, the question marks are Garza who as well as he's pitched before the injury will have missed a month and Lohse who was lit up in 2 of his last 3 starts.

 

Roenicke has to make the decisions here. He's paid to do that, not Lohse or Gallardo. He shouldn't rule out either Nelson or Fiers for the postseason either if they continue to pitch like they have. These aren't kids. Fiers is 29 and Nelson is 25. I think they are both capable.

[JohnBriggs12]

I would be fine with that but I do recall Lohse and perhaps others not really like the idea of 6 days rest. There are a couple of off days as well in September so I don't know if Roenicke would really want the rock the boat with the vets and would feel more comfortable sending Fiers of Nelson to the bullpen.

 

The Brewers play 17 straight days starting on August 29th. A 6 man rotation means 5 days of rest between starts not 6 for that period. Rock the boat with the vets? Really? I like to think they are a bit more professional than that. They see what Fiers and Nelson are doing. Lohse isn't the manager, and besides since the break, he's been the least effective starter. The points about the staff being gassed in 2011 are excellent. Gallardo's shown the past couple of years he's benefitted with some time between starts.

So here you go again with the 6 game sample size. In 4 of those six games, his ERA is 1.75. Prior to rolling his ankle, 'since the AS break', his ERA was 1.83. He's had two bad starts, which happens over the course of a season... especially when a player injures himself like Lohse did. Did his performance suffered after rolling his ankle? Not surprisingly, yes.

 

In the month of July his ERA was 3.03. On the year it's 3.49. The idea that you've uncovered some trend that Lohse is now the weakest SP link isn't backed up by the facts.

 

Ok who is the weakest of the 6 since the break if it's not Lohse? I'm not advocating removing Lohse, but his recent struggles ankle related or not are factual. Lets go back 10 starts on Lohse. He's 3-5 with a 4.21 ERA. Again, not bad by any means, but the standard this group is setting is awfully high.

[folly412]

It makes a lot of sense for the 17 day stretch coming up. Late in the season with innings accumulating, injuries, going that long without an off day, and needing to evaluate for playoff roles. After that stretch, re-evaluate based on health, performance, and standings for the last 12 games.

 

Playoff four could also be interesting. The favorites have to be the three with playoff success and Peralta, the best pitcher on the staff over the past 1 1/2 seasons. If anyone isn't fully healthy, has an ineffective September, or Fiers would remain completely dominant that could change.

[TooLiveBrew]

Frankly, we don't have a weak link. It's a great problem to have. I don't think we can count on any specific return time from Garza (even though the club has a target date now), & that bridge can be crossed when Matt is actually ready to return to full action.

 

Whether we go with an extra man in the rotation or not, having more quality SPs than rotation spots is fine. Whoever RR, DM, & Kranitz opt to put in the bullpen will be just fine.

[FVBrewerFan]

Another good question is; name your playoffs rotation. Clearly, Lohse, Garza and Yo would be starters.

 

I don't think that's clear at all. That's why I want to see all 6 start, and make that decision at the end of the year. For example, if Fiers is still this dominant a month from now, I put him in the playoff rotation. If Peralta keeps doing what he's doing, I have him in the rotation. It's all about health and performance, and there's no way I pencil in Lohse, Garza, and Yo this early. This is about winning a World Series, not codifying a couple veterans.

[FVBrewerFan]

Whoever RR, DM, & Kranitz opt to put in the bullpen will be just fine.

 

I meant to mention this in my original post. Whoever the two "odd men out" are when the playoffs start, it should WHOAA SOLVV the issue of 8th inning guy/ RHP out of the pen. Whoever they are, they need to get over the fact they're not starting and embrace their role. For example, Nelson taking on the 8th inning role could be huge for this team.

[JohnBriggs12]

Lets look at what the Cardinals did last year. They went with hot hands in the postseason who weren't part of the rotation the first half, young Michael Wacha and Joe Kelly, and Lance Lynn who had a great September. Their other postseason starter was their unquestioned ace Wainwright. Left out was Shelby Miller who had a fine year, but wasn't as sharp down the stretch. Given that the Cards postseason record has been pretty good in this era, I think it behooves the Brewers to have an open mind and not make decisions based on whether or not a veteran could get hurt feelings.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Since Garza will get back after the minors are shut down he's probably throwing 3-5 innings his first couple times out. They may want to piggyback one of these guys with Garza or they'll have extra arms from the minors to Johnny Wholestaff it. I go back and forth on this one. I could see a six man rotation during the big 17 game stretch with Garza just coming back to keep them fresh for the playoffs. They want to avoid a Suppan/Marcum situation where they are trotting out a worn out arm into the playoffs...although with 6 solid starters for 4 spots that shouldn't be an issue, unless they don't want to hurt a veteran's feelings if it's one of them that is broken.

 

At some point 6 becomes 4 in the playoffs and the bullpen could use a decent RHP. Maybe Nelson can fill that role. I get nervous about them overusing him like a Thornburg, but he could be pretty valuable as an 8th inning fireballer down the stretch. Tough decisions, but it's good they have options for once.

[Roderick]

Lets look at what the Cardinals did last year. They went with hot hands in the postseason who weren't part of the rotation the first half, young Michael Wacha and Joe Kelly, and Lance Lynn who had a great September. Their other postseason starter was their unquestioned ace Wainwright. Left out was Shelby Miller who had a fine year, but wasn't as sharp down the stretch. Given that the Cards postseason record has been pretty good in this era, I think it behooves the Brewers to have an open mind and not make decisions based on whether or not a veteran could get hurt feelings.

 

Barring an injury, I don't see RR starting Nelson or Fiers over any of the other starters in the playoffs, despite how good they may pitch down the stretch.

[MadScientist]

Another good question is; name your playoffs rotation. Clearly, Lohse, Garza and Yo would be starters.

 

I don't think that's clear at all. That's why I want to see all 6 start, and make that decision at the end of the year. For example, if Fiers is still this dominant a month from now, I put him in the playoff rotation. If Peralta keeps doing what he's doing, I have him in the rotation. It's all about health and performance, and there's no way I pencil in Lohse, Garza, and Yo this early. This is about winning a World Series, not codifying a couple veterans.

 

At this point I can't see any way Peralta is not in the playoff rotation. I think the best bet at the moment is Yo, Lohse, Peralta and Nelson. Fiers and Garza to the pen. With Garza coming off an injury it makes sense, and I just expect Fiers to return to normal levels (still good, but not completely lights out). If he doesn't, then the choice gets more difficult.

[bm1090]

I think Garza, Lohse, Gallardo and Peralta are the clear 4 in the playoff rotation with both Nelson and Fiers in the bullpen.

 

If it's not against the Cardinals I would give Yo game one. In his 3 playoff starts not against STL he has been lights out and he has been there before. Especially if the game is in Milwaukee. Garza was on fire for 2 months before his injury so if he comes back solid I have no problem slotting him into the playoff rotation. Peralta obviously gets a spot. Lohse should too unless he gets shelled during September.

 

I'd probably go Gallardo, Peralta, Lohse, Garza, in that order. Separates the two harder throwing pitchers and puts the soft tosser (Lohse) in between two predominantly fastball pitchers.

[FVBrewerFan]

I just expect Fiers to return to normal levels

 

Except Fiers has no normal level. He is either the best starting pitcher in baseball when he's on a stretch like this, or he is not effective at all (like the end of the 2012 season.)

 

I fully expect RR to use the vets no matter what, but I think it would be foolish not to start Fiers if he's still pitching like this come October.

 

Actually, I'm open to the idea of using a 5 man rotation in the playoffs, depending on how they're all doing coming into the playoffs. Keep the arms fresh, the opponent doesn't get a 2nd look at the starter as often, and as of now there really isn't much separation 1-6. Sticking a to a 5 man rotation in the playoffs may not be the worst idea.

[Dead Simmons]

I just expect Fiers to return to normal levels

 

Actually, I'm open to the idea of using a 5 man rotation in the playoffs, depending on how they're all doing coming into the playoffs. Keep the arms fresh, the opponent doesn't get a 2nd look at the starter as often, and as of now there really isn't much separation 1-6. Sticking a to a 5 man rotation in the playoffs may not be the worst idea.

I like that idea. As to the 6 man rotation, I've seen it tried by La Russa in September 2010. The Cards had a big lead in the standings and it seemed like a good idea. But the top 3, Carpenter, Wainwright and Garcia only won ONE game between them the rest of the way. At one point we lost 8 straight. We barely won the division and were swept by an LA team in the LCS that we had dominated in the regular season. A bitter lesson.

[SRB]

Playoff rotation should be: 1) Garza, 2) Fiers, 3) Gallardo, 4) Lohse

[Bombers]

2014 First Inning splits:

Name - IP / ERA / AVG / OBP / SLG / OPS

Peralta - 25 IP / 1.08 ERA / .205 / .290 / .250 / .540

Nelson - 7 IP / 2.57 ERA / .200 / .310 / .200 / .510

Fiers - 3 IP / 0.00 ERA / .100 / .182 / .200 / .382

Lohse - 25 IP / 5.40 ERA / .247 / .324/ .423 / .747

Garza - 22 IP / 6.45 ERA / .258 / .330 / .371 / .701

Gallardo - 25 IP / 4.68 ERA / .271 / .333 / .344 / .677

 

I don't see how the stats above say, tossing 2 of Garza, Yo and Lohse into the pen makes the team better. I would almost say putting Nelson and Peralta into the pen and keeping Fiers on for the 4th starter gives you more flexibility. So when Lohse goes 7 innings of 2 run ball, you can close the game out with Peralta / k-rod.

[Bnowell4evr]

Playoff rotation should be: 1) Garza, 2) Fiers, 3) Gallardo, 4) Lohse

 

I trust Peralta more than anyone in our rotation because power arms win in October.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If healthy, Garza has the stuff to succeed in the postseason - the issue becomes if he can avoid the meltdown inning that occasionally plagues him. Until his oblique injury, he was the best starter the Brewers had going over the last month of his outings.

 

If Garza comes back in the next 1-2 weeks, what about piggybacking Nelson/Fiers once every 5 days? A bit outside the box, but you start one for 5-6 innings and bring the other one in to finish a game out, rotating the order for each start. That way essentially both of them are potentially available between outings to add quality depth to the bullpen.

[folly412]

2014 First Inning splits:

I don't see how the stats above say, tossing 2 of Garza, Yo and Lohse into the pen makes the team better. I would almost say putting Nelson and Peralta into the pen and keeping Fiers on for the 4th starter gives you more flexibility. So when Lohse goes 7 innings of 2 run ball, you can close the game out with Peralta / k-rod.

 

Not saying how it will/should factor in, but Lohse has gone 7 innings with 2 run ball (actually 1 run) once in 8 playoff starts. Playoff ERA of 4.86 in 13 games (8 starts) with an average start lasting less than five innings.

 

Which brings about the main reason I bring it up - quick hooks are common in the playoffs. If a pitcher gives up 3 runs in 4 innings during the season it's typical to let him ride out 100 pitches/6 innings to save the bullpen. In the playoffs you need quality options, less so for the single innings that bullpen guys are used to, but to get through multiple middle innings when the starter is yanked at the first sign of trouble. If healthy, we should have two of those between the six current starters.

 

 

Playoff rotation should be: 1) Garza, 2) Fiers, 3) Gallardo, 4) Lohse

 

I trust Peralta more than anyone in our rotation because power arms win in October.

 

Agree. You don't move the best pitcher on the staff over the last season and a half to the pen.

[TheCrew07]

There are too many off days in the playoffs to use a 5 man rotation, it's completely unnecessary.

 

I don't like the idea of a 6 man rotation at all unless it's something the Brewers are going to adopt full time. It doesn't matter how many starters you throw out there, none of our guys are going to give us a complete game on any kind of regular basis. Having a 6th starter limits your BP options more than having Wang on the roster did, I'd rather shift an arm to the pen such a Nelson to save on innings and provide some depth there where it's needed.

 

I don't think the # of innings was the issue with either Sheets or Marcum... Greinke was awful in the playoffs as well and missed the start of the season. Sheets was injured, that was the accumulative effect of his career, not what transpired during the 2008 season, and I never trusted Marcum to stay healthy which is why I railed so vehemently against that trade in the first place.

 

I've long argued that the post season is an entirely different animal than the regular season, depth isn't as important as matching up best on best. As such, you roll your 4 best starting pitching options, and put everyone else in the pen so you load up as much talent into each game as possible. In the post season the hot hand matters as there isn't time for regression to mean in either a positive or negative sense. We need to let go of our 162 game perception of baseball once the regular season ends; with the continual off days in each playoff series the relievers get the rest they need by default so managers have the ability to be much more aggressive with their pitching/line-up changes through the course of the game.

 

That's where our managers have gotten out maneuvered in the playoffs, they manage like it's the regular season sticking with guys because he's "proven" even though he's clearly slumping... Suppan in '08 and Marcum in '11.