off-season moves

[logan82]

Yeah it's probably a waste to have 6 good starters because pitchers are really unlikely to get hurt.

[TheCrew07]

"Fiers can pitch out of the pen"

 

Really? Theoretically sure, but would he be ready to just step in and start? They can stretch him out in spring training, but without regular extended work, he's not going to be able to stay stretched out and they can't just send him down. Long men just aren't used that much. Besides based on what we've seen of him so far this year, you going to stash this guy in your pen? Seriously?

 

Yes, he'll already be 30 years old in 2015, how much more are we exactly expecting to get out of him? If he's the odd man out, so be it. Of the pitchers with the least experience in Peralta, Nelson, and Fiers (I'm not sure Thornburg pitches next year) he's clearly the least talented of the 3 and if they are all going to post similar results over a large sample why wouldn't you stick the oldest and least talented player in the pen and build around the other 2?

 

Fiers' curve has come a long way, it's above average now, but he throws 89-90... the college kid I've spent the summer working with throws that hard... Fiers' command and pitchability are special so when he's locating he can be extremely effective, if he loses his location at all he's going to get lit up similar to every other pitcher we've had with that kind of stuff like Marcum, Suppan, and so on. Fiers' curve isn't on the same level as Marcum's change was either... Mike is going to be up and down, he's not going to continually dominate, he has a large enough MLB sample now to know that he'll fall in that high 3 range on average which is what I expect of Nelson and may be on the low side for Peralta.

[monty57]

If we could trade Gallardo for a stud 1B with a lot of team control, or a stud SP who is sitting in AA/AAA almost ready to step in, then I'd be all for it. But I really don't see that happening. It's too risky, and that's not really Melvin/Attanasio's m.o.

 

By risky, I mean that if they make the trade and Fiers doesn't have a good season, or we have a couple of SP injuries and don't have the depth to cover them, fans and the media will look at that trade as the reason we had a down year. Melvin is far more apt to go for the safer route of sticking with what he has in the rotation and using Fiers as "insurance" in the long man role. While that sets us up for big turnover after next year, it probably gives us the best chance next year, which again fits the Melvin/Attanasio m.o.

 

The only real chance I see of Melvin trading an established starter is if Ramirez leaves. In that scenario, I could see Gallardo or Lohse traded for a veteran corner infielder if he can't find a free agent or swing a deal using prospects.

[FVBrewerFan]

I would feel better about trading Yo if I was confident Jimmy Nelson could produce the same numbers or better. I just don't see him being a top of the rotation type of guy with his stuff. Then you have Fiers, and he is way too much of an unknown to make a commitment like that. (And I'm a huge Fiers fan.)

[narwhalattack]

I would feel better about trading Yo if I was confident Jimmy Nelson could produce the same numbers or better. I just don't see him being a top of the rotation type of guy with his stuff. Then you have Fiers, and he is way too much of an unknown to make a commitment like that. (And I'm a huge Fiers fan.)

 

I think Nelson has good stuff, although it seems he needs to work a bit more on command and he needs to improve his changeup.

[FVBrewerFan]

It's all about the change-up, otherwise he's a #4 or 5 starter.

[Roderick]

Yeah it's probably a waste to have 6 good starters because pitchers are really unlikely to get hurt.

 

Well if we can acquire a 2015 corner infielder or a 2016 starter with six years of control for Gallardo, yes I think it is a waste of resources. Now obviously if the return isn't up to those levels (even if we kick in $ to reduce Gallardo's cost) you don't pull the trigger.

[reillymcshane]

Does the team go after K-Rod or Duke in the offseason?

 

What will each cost? I'm betting K-Rod gets $8-9 million for two or three years. I'm thinking Duke can get $3-4 million on 2-3 years as well.

 

Am I undestimating/overestimating these guys?

 

I think Melvin will try and keep K-Rod. He seems to like to have a 'proven' closer.

[LouisEly]

If we could trade Gallardo for a stud 1B with a lot of team control, or a stud SP who is sitting in AA/AAA almost ready to step in, then I'd be all for it. But I really don't see that happening. It's too risky, and that's not really Melvin/Attanasio's m.o.

It is their M.O. to trade a ML player for ML players/ML-ready players (Carlos Lee, Richie Sexson). Could easily see them flipping Gallardo for a ML LH 1B. The downgrade from Gallardo to Fiers would be far less than the upgrade from Overbay to... just about any starting caliber 1B.

 

They've never traded starting pitching before because they've never had excess starting pitching before and multiple upper-level SP prospects.

[HiAndTight]

Really? Theoretically sure, but would he be ready to just step in and start? They can stretch him out in spring training, but without regular extended work, he's not going to be able to stay stretched out and they can't just send him down. Long men just aren't used that much. Besides based on what we've seen of him so far this year, you going to stash this guy in your pen? Seriously?

 

Yes really. It's not theoretical. He's done it, so saying he can pitch out of the pen is not an abstract idea. It's a fact. He CAN pitch out of the pen. And if someone gets hurt and has to move back into the starting rotation, then we can start that process. He won't be able to go from 1 inning to 100 pitches, but teams regularly move relievers into the rotation. He could start out with a 70 pitch limit, and after 4-5 starts work his way back up. And the pitchers you want to use as depth could be used in the pen to bridge the gap in the meantime.

 

And based on what we've seen out of him this year? Yeah, he's been on a really nice run. He's done this before and then came back to Earth and the the following season was awful.

 

 

If you really want to play it safe, keep all the starters going into spring. If they all come out of Arizona healthy, then make the best deal you can for Lohse. Next year the depth has to come from guys like Jungmann, Pena, Cravy, etc. Thornburg will have an option and he could start the year starting too at AAA assuming he's healthy. One or two of those guys figures to be ready when needed. Another depth move would be to add a non-roster veteran (maybe even Estrada after he's non-tendered), who could be stashed at AAA with an out clause at some point.

 

Point is they could deal a guy like Lohse for something of need, and still be able to build a fairly deep staff.

 

 

Ariel Pena? Jungman? Cravy is a soft tossing lefty who's never thrown more than 90 innings. He's the type who seems to excel in AA vs aggressive hitters, but I really question his ability to be able to step into a big league rotation and thrive in a playoff race.

 

 

 

Either way, I was responding to your assertion that we simply don't have room to "store," all the pitching we've acquired. We're far from that being a problem in my mind. Lets say we traded Gallardo and found ourselves in the same situation we're in right now. With Estrada presumably gone, Gallardo traded, Lohse banged up and Garza on the DL, we'd have Peralta, Nelson and Fiers healthy and then we'd be hoping that Pena could for the first time find the command to be a servicable starter, Hellweg could come back...and do the same, or other potential back of the rotation type starters could get us through a month long stretch? And this is assuming that we don't lose anyone for more than a month.

 

There is also the fact that K-Rod, Gorz, and Duke are free agents, Henderson has shoulder problems and who knows if he's ever going to return to form, Thornburg's "forearm," injury has turned into an issue with his ulnar ligament and he's a question mark.

 

So if we trade Gallardo, we're going to need to put some money back into that pen, and find another veteran who can start for us, not because we don't have any place to store the one extra starter we have.