off-season moves

[JohnBriggs12]

The problem with stockpiling starting pitching is that eventually there's no place to store it. Fiers is out of options next year. Nelson is coming into his prime years at age 26 next year. Barring injury, he's going to be in the rotation on opening day. Peralta has arrived as budding star and they are going to need to start budgeting some money to keep him. Garza's under contract through 2017. That leaves Gallardo and Lohse on short term but fairly significant deals.

 

You need to build depth just below the surface of the major league roster. That kind of depth either allows you to trade for a veteran or use a young guy. That's why this year worked so well with Nelson and Fiers sitting there in Nashville at the ready. Nelson we figured would be ready, but Fiers comeback has been a pleasant surprise.

 

Lohse and Gallardo both have value in the trade market. I favor dealing Lohse because I just don't see him as worth a QO when he's 37, and he'll then just walk away with zero return. No a 4.41 ERA in 6 starts isn't a huge red flag, but it might be an indication he's not the workhorse he's been. Keeping him you run the risk of him turning into a 2012 version of Randy Wolf, where he's making too much to give up on too soon. I also think that if you need to, dealing for the equivalent of a Lohse at midseason next year isn't beyond the ability of the Brewers.

 

Now that's all assuming everyone in the picture ends the year in good health.

[Funketown]

If Lohse continues to put up 3.5 ERA and stays healthy, I imagine they'll give him a QO if there are no alarm bells. He's getting up there in years, but even if a QO is 1y/15MM, that's not too much more than he's been worth, and if he has hopes of something like 2/25, they may well walk with a pick.

 

Alarm bells are ringing right now (4.41 ERA since break). You don't risk paying $15 million for 37 year old starters. See Bronson Arroyo. Deal him while he still has value.

 

Well luckily they have 1.2 more seasons to evaluate him before deciding on the QO; if he continues to put up a 4.41 there's no need to offer, but if he continues to be a ~3.5 ERA guy it may well be worth the gamble, especially with Gallardo gone.

[JohnBriggs12]

If Lohse continues to put up 3.5 ERA and stays healthy, I imagine they'll give him a QO if there are no alarm bells. He's getting up there in years, but even if a QO is 1y/15MM, that's not too much more than he's been worth, and if he has hopes of something like 2/25, they may well walk with a pick.

 

Alarm bells are ringing right now (4.41 ERA since break). You don't risk paying $15 million for 37 year old starters. See Bronson Arroyo. Deal him while he still has value.

 

Well luckily they have 1.2 more seasons to evaluate him before deciding on the QO; if he continues to put up a 4.41 there's no need to offer, but if he continues to be a ~3.5 ERA guy it may well be worth the gamble, especially with Gallardo gone.

 

If he continues putting up 4.41, he may be keeping a spot from another guy capable of 3.61 which might be enough to cost a postseason trip.

[TooLiveBrew]

If he continues putting up 4.41, he may be keeping a spot from another guy capable of 3.61 which might be enough to cost a postseason trip.

Of course what the "4.41 ERA" narrative ignores is that it's down to one bad start at normal health (8/2 @ STL), & then the start in which he got hurt. Aside from those two games, he's posted a 2.79 ERA since the beginning of July, & a 1.75 ERA since the break.

 

To describe him as a "4.41 ERA pitcher" is either disingenuous, or missing very relevant & clear factors.

[Roderick]

Put me down in the trade Gallardo this offseason camp. That is assuming we get something of value in return. If teams aren't going to pony up something over and above his salary, then I feel no motivation to trade him. Would be nice to get a 3B or a starter that would be ready in 2016.

 

We should be fine in 2015 with Lohse, Garza, Peralta, Nelson, Fiers. For something long-term they could stretch out Thornburg or Smith or Gorzy/Duke (if resigned), and maybe one of Blazek/Jungmann/Pena/Cravy earns a shot midseason. With a Figaro/Hand/etc available to fill in for a start or two.

 

If the Brewers don't want to pay Estrada arby-level pay, but still wanted him do they have the same crack at him as the other clubs or since we didn't offer arby we have to wait to negotiate a contract until after other teams have been given a shot? Seems if the Brewers trade a starter, they could sign Estrada back as high-priced insurance policy.

[monty57]

I would have no problem with Melvin dealing Gallardo or Lohse, but I would be shocked if it happened. They have shown in the past that they would rather play out a good player's final season, and only trade him if the team is out of it, letting him walk in free agency if the team remains in the playoff hunt. In a playoff-hopeful season, it's much safer to go with Gallardo, Lohse, Garza, Peralta, Nelson with Fiers the "long man/6th starter" than it is to trade away a proven starter.

 

The offseason will likely hinge on Ramirez and Rodriguez. If both are coming back, the offseason will be pretty quiet. If neither comes back, Melvin/Attanasio will make one or two "splash" moves, like signing a big named corner IF like Sandoval or Cuddyer.

[logan82]

I guess I still don't fully trust Gallardo. That's probably unfair because he's been very solid this season, but I can't forget his 2013 first half and desperately wishing the Brewers had traded him earlier.

 

$13M is probably a no brainer at this point though, just a shame that Fiers won't get another extended look and will have to be a backup SP at best.

 

I know few if any will agree with me, but I would shop Peralta to see if there is someone out there who believes his ERA. Keri talked about how lucky Peralta has been in his last power ranking for Grantland:

 

http://grantland.com/features/mlb-the-30-astros-indians-braves-brewers-corey-kluber/

He assumes Peralta is lucky this year but his strand rate this year (76%) is more in line with league average(73%) this year than last year(66%). Given that Peralta is a heavy groundball pitcher I find it easier to buy this year's numbers than last year's though the truth is probaly somewhere in between. Peralta is the type of pitcher I would expect to outperform his FIP. Looking at his MiLB stats he pretty consistently did.

[TheCrew07]

Yes my favorite, the assignment of performance to "lucky" or "unlucky" if a player doesn't have numbers which fall in line with the average.

 

Manny Parra was always unlucky and Wily Peralta is lucky largely because of worthless FIP which has always been Strike Out driven.

 

Like so many "analysis" people throw around, the conclusions are only supported by looking at what's happening on the surface, for example the assertion of "luck" with relievers. Well the notion of luck is true to a certain extent since the starting pitcher has no impact on what the reliever does with his mess, but if you look at Peralta's actual game logs instead of his aggregate numbers you can see that he's only left mid inning 9 times in 25 starts and while 3 of his 4 worst starts came while leaving mid inning his "luck" has been fairly neutral when relievers have allowed his inherited runners to score. Duke gave 3 in one of those games and Gorzelanny 2 in another, but in other instances in those 9 games the pen came up huge for him.

 

Most of the analysis doesn't go deep enough because that requires too much effort. Who cares what actually happened in the games when you can use raw numbers to make base assertions?

 

Is Peralta a budding ace? No, I don't think so, he doesn't have the command or a full arsenal of plus pitches to be such, but he's relatively young, he's cheap, and I believe he'll ultimately settle in that #2 range. Even he's nothing more than a #3 down the road why would you trade him and hold onto much older and more expensive players?

 

The idea should be to identify and build around young "core" players not load up with proven veterans because the Brewers simply don't have the financial resources to win big with pitchers in Free Agency which Melvin has repeatedly proven. They can have success on a limited basis here and there, but FA pitching is largely nothing more than a money sink. The focus should be on developing ascending talent not relying on pitchers who are on the downside of their careers.

[SRB]

I understand the temptation to let Gallardo go (leaving you with Garza, Lohse, Nelson, Peralta and Fiers in the rotation). But I just think depth at starting pitcher is so important. We've been immensely lucky this year. We've had one ineffective pitcher pulled, but we've only missed (so far) about 4-5 starts due to injury. That's a great statistic. I think back in 2011, when we made the playoffs, we had a similar thing happen. Look at the injuries to all the pitchers this year. I think something like 20 guys have had Tommy John surgery.

 

It's really important that we're not trotting out Figaro, Hand or other scrubs at the back end of the rotation. Having Fiers or Nelson is such an important option.

 

I have no illusion that we'll keep Estrada for $4-5 million. But keeping Yo should happen. If you don't, and you have an injury, you're counting on Jungmann or a Randy Wolf-like vet to take the #5 slot. I'd rather not do that. Jungmann may be an option down the road, but he's been very average at AAA. I'd give him another 1/2 year or full year to adapt.

 

Fully agreed, but having a #6 as solid as Fiers seems like a luxury if it comes at the expense of other needs (1B, maybe 3B, possibly RP). If the payroll can fit Gallardo at $13M + a free agent 1B who is actually good (Cuddyer, LaRoche) and not just a piece of duct tape, then I'm happy to keep both.

[nate82]

FIP does not = lucky or unlucky. What FIP does is measure a pitchers talent on things that they can control HR's, Walks, strike outs and hit by pitches. What you are doing with FIP, SIERA, XFIP or any other stat is to look at another base stat and to see if that base stat is true. I don't like FIP as it is rather Home Run heavy. I prefer XFIP and SIERA over FIP when looking at ERA as the base stat.

 

There is no stat that is 100% perfect or tells the whole story of a players season. You really need to add all of the pieces together to get the whole story for a player. Some stats do not tell a true story for some pitchers for example XFIP and SIERA are closer to Peralta's actual ERA than FIP is. Peralta is more of a ground ball pitcher and his FIP is going to suffer as he doesn't have a great strike out rate.

 

I believe Peralta is actually performing close to what his true talent levels say in the results he has been posting. He is a borderline #2 and will more than likely settle in as a #3 type starter going forward so around a 3.50 - 3.75 ERA.

[LouisEly]

Put me in the camp of move one of Gallardo or Lohse. They will have plenty of SP depth next year - the other of Gallardo/Lohse, Peralta, Garza, Nelson, Fiers, with Smith, Thornburg, and Pena as additional options with Jungmann, Bradley, and Cravy at AAA for depth. Even Blazek has looked decent and serviceable since being moved into a starting role. Gallardo or Lohse could bring back a much-needed LH 1B, an upper-level 3B prospect, or even an upgrade at SS (see: Rangers, Arizona, maybe Cubs) to allow Segura to find his stroke (and some plate discipline) at AAA next year.

 

The future rotation plan is kind of set. Next year if they lose one of Gallardo/Lohse they have Fiers stepping in; then the following year they lose Lohse for sure with whomever of Jungmann/Bradley/Cravy is ready to step in with Wagner, Lopez, T. Williams, H. Johnson waiting in the wings.

 

If Nelson and Fiers are your #4 and #5, you've got a pretty nice starting rotation.

[nate82]

Gallardo to the Dbacks for Brandon Drury?

 

I think that is a fair deal for the Brewers though he is blocked by Lamb who is probably going to be the future 3B for the Dbacks going forward. Drury just made it to AA this year for the Dbacks so he has at least one more year before he is in the majors but so far in his 60 PA's in AA he has a slash line of .352/.400/.648/1.048 not bad for a 21 year old in AA. If the Brewers only have Ramirez for next year he maybe ready for the 2016 season and he doesn't turn 22 years old until September of this year.

 

The Dbacks are going to be looking to add pitching this off season along with a whole bunch of other teams though some of them like the Yankees will be looking at Scherzer, Lester, or Shields but if the price is to high I could definitely see teams going after players like Gallardo.

[brewcrewdue80]

The Brewers exercise their option from Ramirez but he opts out and the Brewers offer the QO which Ramirez rejects. I don't believe the Brewers are going to want to go more than 2-years with Ramirez and I think Ramirez believes he has another 3-4 years left in him. I would definitely not give Ramirez more than 2-years and that is pushing it unless some how the NL gets the DH after this season. I don't believe Ramirez will be with the Brewers next year.

 

MLBTR had a Writeup about ARam and his mutual option for next season. From the way it was written.

 

ARam will not be a Brewer next season @14mil cost because,

 

He's going to Opt out on his end and the Brewers still owe him the 4mil regardless? Apparently LOL

If the Brewers extend a QO which is in the 15mil+range(Already above what he's to get if option is picked up) Now we're talking 4mil+15-point some mil to pay ARam to play 3b next season. He'll accept the QO 1000% Honestly, no team in their right frame of mind is going to sign ARam to 15mil plus lose their 1st rd pick. His Health is high risk of DL stints. He's just not worth 15mil+.

 

So, The Brewers are about to watch ARam walk after the season and he'll do so with no QO so we get nothing in return for his departure.....

As I understand that writeup.

 

What I figure ARam's value to be would be 2/24mil. (Keep in mind he's being paid 4mil by Milw regardless) It makes zero sense for any team to give him a 3yr deal. Maybe 2/30 max.

[SoupTown]

re ARAM's $4 mill. I dont believe for a second that the Brewers would sign a contract that pays a player $4 mill for WALKING. I just dont believe it. It may be true. But it makes no sense. So I dont believe it.

 

re Peralta: (nate) I believe Peralta is actually performing close to what his true talent levels say in the results he has been posting. He is a borderline #2 and will more than likely settle in as a #3 type starter going forward so around a 3.50 - 3.75 ERA.

 

I dont think that our starters should be labeled at their peak / no improvement left in year 2 of their journey.

[DuWayne Steurer]

There's a lot of talk about trading Gallardo, trading Lohse, or trading one of Gallardo or Lohse. Interesting ideas, but the truth is this. Melvin and Mark A will (once again) believe that the Brewers will be contenders going into 2015. It would be HIGHLY UNUSUAL for them to trade away a top/middle of the rotation starter going into a "go for it" season. It's just not the way Melvin operates. It's just never been part of his MO, and he's not likely to change now.

 

I'm not *personally* questioning the strategy, I'm just saying that's not how our mustachio'd Canadian GM does things, and I see no reason to believe that he will change now.

 

My *best guess* would be that Marco gets non-tendered, and the rotation is Gallardo, Lohse, Garza, Nelson, and Peralta. Fiers is once again the odd man out here.

[monty57]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/08/free-agent-stock-watch-aramis-ramirez-2.html

 

Here's the article bcd80 referenced.

 

From Cot's:

 

Aramis Ramirez 3b

3 years/$36M (2012-14), plus 2015 option

 

-3 years/$36M (2012-14), plus 2015 mutual option signed by Milwaukee as a free agent 12/13/11

 

-12:$6M, 13:$10M, 14:$16M, 15:$14M mutual option ($4M buyout)

 

-$6M in 2014 salary deferred, paid in $3M installments 12/15/17 & 12/15/18

 

-if option is declined, buyout paid in $2M installments 12/15/15 & 12/15/16

 

Not clear from that if the buyout is paid regardless of who declines or only if it is the Brewers who decline. It seems likely that the Brewers will exercise their side of the option, but if healthy, I think there is a good chance that Ramirez will opt out of his side of the option and pursue a multi-year deal which he will probably get. That's even more likely if he gets the $4MM regardless of who opts out.

 

A couple of years ago, he wanted to stay in the midwest, so it is possible that the multi-year deal will be with Milwaukee, but due to the DH, it makes more sense for an AL team to sign an aging slugger. My guess is that the Brewers exercise their option (hopefully but not certainly getting them out of paying $4MM), while Ramirez declines his option. The Brewers offer a two-year deal in the $20-25MM range, and he signs with an AL team on a three-year deal. If he does stay in the NL, my guess is that he would be a Dodger, who could throw a lot of money at him and absorb that salary if he does "fall off a cliff" from age.

 

If Ramirez does end up elsewhere next year, Melvin has some work to do. The Brewer brass would still feel they have a playoff team, so I would guess they would go after a big name, either in free agency or by trading a starting pitcher.

[reillymcshane]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/08/free-agent-stock-watch-aramis-ramirez-2.html

 

Here's the article bcd80 referenced.

 

From Cot's:

 

Aramis Ramirez 3b

3 years/$36M (2012-14), plus 2015 option

 

-3 years/$36M (2012-14), plus 2015 mutual option signed by Milwaukee as a free agent 12/13/11

 

-12:$6M, 13:$10M, 14:$16M, 15:$14M mutual option ($4M buyout)

 

-$6M in 2014 salary deferred, paid in $3M installments 12/15/17 & 12/15/18

 

-if option is declined, buyout paid in $2M installments 12/15/15 & 12/15/16

 

Not clear from that if the buyout is paid regardless of who declines or only if it is the Brewers who decline. It seems likely that the Brewers will exercise their side of the option, but if healthy, I think there is a good chance that Ramirez will opt out of his side of the option and pursue a multi-year deal which he will probably get. That's even more likely if he gets the $4MM regardless of who opts out.

 

A couple of years ago, he wanted to stay in the midwest, so it is possible that the multi-year deal will be with Milwaukee, but due to the DH, it makes more sense for an AL team to sign an aging slugger. My guess is that the Brewers exercise their option (hopefully but not certainly getting them out of paying $4MM), while Ramirez declines his option. The Brewers offer a two-year deal in the $20-25MM range, and he signs with an AL team on a three-year deal. If he does stay in the NL, my guess is that he would be a Dodger, who could throw a lot of money at him and absorb that salary if he does "fall off a cliff" from age.

 

If Ramirez does end up elsewhere next year, Melvin has some work to do. The Brewer brass would still feel they have a playoff team, so I would guess they would go after a big name, either in free agency or by trading a starting pitcher.

I'll go with A-Ram agreeing to a 2-year / 24 million extension this off season. Maybe even before FA gets going.

[pacopete4]

I'll take Aram next season but after that, I'm good with him going on his way. I think with the way Jason Rogers is swinging the bat, we allow him to be the utility 1B/3B next season and if he continues to swing the bat, he's our 3B in 2016 and a cheaper option at that.

[brewcrewdue80]

See, he signed a 3year 36mil contract. 6/10/16=32mil. So I believe that article is correct in that ARam receives the 4mil regardless thus making the 3/36 true. Otherwise the Brewers received 3years of ARam at 32mil cost.

 

I dunno though, it's fairly odd to owe ARam 4mil if He declines vs. Milw's side. Especially since my previous post paints the picture that ARam HAS to decline since he'll make more money regardless if true.

 

I honestly think what will happen is both sides say yes to the option. At ARam's age and Missed Games history, I don't see him making 14mil+ going to FA. Even with the Weak 3b FA market. I see 14mil as his peak price with 8-12.5mil being more realistic. Let's be honest, he's at a stage where unless he's in the AL in the DH spot for games he's likely can only be counted on for 125games in a Season. Leaving near 40games for someone else to cover 3b for him.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's a mutual option. Unless the Brewers & A-Ram ventured into really foreign territory, the $4M clause/buyout applies only if the Brewers decline their side of the option.

[SoupTown]

2015. My *best guess* would be that Marco gets non-tendered, and the rotation is Gallardo, Lohse, Garza, Nelson, and Peralta. Fiers is once again the odd man out here.

 

 

Man that is a good odd man out.

[HiAndTight]

The problem with stockpiling starting pitching is that eventually there's no place to store it. Fiers is out of options next year. Nelson is coming into his prime years at age 26 next year. Barring injury, he's going to be in the rotation on opening day. Peralta has arrived as budding star and they are going to need to start budgeting some money to keep him. Garza's under contract through 2017. That leaves Gallardo and Lohse on short term but fairly significant deals.

 

You need to build depth just below the surface of the major league roster. That kind of depth either allows you to trade for a veteran or use a young guy. That's why this year worked so well with Nelson and Fiers sitting there in Nashville at the ready. Nelson we figured would be ready, but Fiers comeback has been a pleasant surprise.

 

Lohse and Gallardo both have value in the trade market. I favor dealing Lohse because I just don't see him as worth a QO when he's 37, and he'll then just walk away with zero return. No a 4.41 ERA in 6 starts isn't a huge red flag, but it might be an indication he's not the workhorse he's been. Keeping him you run the risk of him turning into a 2012 version of Randy Wolf, where he's making too much to give up on too soon. I also think that if you need to, dealing for the equivalent of a Lohse at midseason next year isn't beyond the ability of the Brewers.

 

Now that's all assuming everyone in the picture ends the year in good health.

 

Right, but we're not there yet. Fiers can pitch out of the pen. With Lohse and Yo under control for just one more year, we really don't have a problem "storing," our depth. Leaving a team that has hopes of contending without a 6th starter better than someone like Taylor Jungman seems unlikely.

 

I also don't see why we'd expect or worry about Lohse having a Wolf like 3rd year other than they were both veterans signed to 3 year ~30 million dollar deals. And if he does walk away after next year with no return, so be it. This team should be very similar next year with our prospects a year older, and hopefully a couple upgrades to the pen.

[igor67]

I'd be very hesitant on multiple years of ARam, he has performed well this year on balance, but his secondary skills have eroded and he is posting solid OPSes based mostly on a good BA. The walks have declined along with the other power numbers, and their were at least a few times this year that it looked like he might be turning the wrong corner.

[JohnBriggs12]

"Fiers can pitch out of the pen"

 

Really? Theoretically sure, but would he be ready to just step in and start? They can stretch him out in spring training, but without regular extended work, he's not going to be able to stay stretched out and they can't just send him down. Long men just aren't used that much. Besides based on what we've seen of him so far this year, you going to stash this guy in your pen? Seriously?

 

If you really want to play it safe, keep all the starters going into spring. If they all come out of Arizona healthy, then make the best deal you can for Lohse. Next year the depth has to come from guys like Jungmann, Pena, Cravy, etc. Thornburg will have an option and he could start the year starting too at AAA assuming he's healthy. One or two of those guys figures to be ready when needed. Another depth move would be to add a non-roster veteran (maybe even Estrada after he's non-tendered), who could be stashed at AAA with an out clause at some point.

 

Point is they could deal a guy like Lohse for something of need, and still be able to build a fairly deep staff.

[Roderick]

Right, but we're not there yet. Fiers can pitch out of the pen. With Lohse and Yo under control for just one more year, we really don't have a problem "storing," our depth. Leaving a team that has hopes of contending without a 6th starter better than someone like Taylor Jungman seems unlikely.

 

Yeah, but putting Fiers in the pen sure seems like a waste to me.

 

So instead of that, trade Gallardo for a starter that will be ready in 2016 or a corner infielder that is ready by then or earlier (we can even chip in on the contract if it generates that much better a prospect).

 

I think the risk of injury or underperformance of a starter(s) is still trumped by the opportunity to make the Brewers stronger for years to come, saving alot of money and keeps the Brewers from losing multiple starters in one offseason.

 

If you need a pitcher, I don't think we would be stuck with no one better than Jungmann, he is just one of the multiple options that include players that have started before in the majors. But, with the saved payroll, they can afford to sign/retain a decent swingman as an insurance policy, like they did with Gorzy before 2013.