off-season moves

[DHonks]

Thinking about some potential log-jams....not sure what we do.

SP: Yo, Garza, Lohse, Peralta, Nelson, Fiers, Thornburg, Smith, Pena, Hellweg, Burgos, Jungmann, Bradley, etc

SS: Segura, Arcia

 

We'll likely pick up Ramirez's option or extend him. He can play 1b or 3b. I'd rather have another year of Overbay and Reynolds than Morris. But perhaps Rogers could play 1b or 3b.

 

Might we be able to trade a pitcher or Segura for a young talented 1b or 3b??

[SoupTown]

My eye says this will be the easiest off season Doug has had... except for the back of the bullpen. We are not going to pay Frankie $10 mill, I hope. So I think he will be gone.

 

You let Morris / Clark battle for the left side of first base platoon. Overbay retires gracefully. Reynolds you keep.

 

You let Weeks go, of course, and save $10 mill

You non tender Estrada, and save around $5 mill.

 

You look for that right hand / or swich utility infielder to platoon a bit with Scooter.

You keep Parra - he is likely the best 4th outfielder in the league.

 

I guess you wait for the 'unloved' in free agency. Hart on a non guaranteed contract. The utility guy mentioned above.

 

Smith and Thornburg and one of Fiers/Nelson need to be in the pen. 2016 will be the interesting year where we roll over our starters. I guess Lohse and Gallardo will be gone. Depending upon how YoGa finishes this year, you may not even think he is worth the 13 mill option for 2015. And ARAM is gone after 2015.

 

Arcia, of course, is at least two years away. Jean will be the man for at least two more years. That 'good D' 'poor bat, 8 hole.. shortstop. At league min, that is ok.

 

My feeling is the 2015 team will actually be a tad better... just young guys improving and some money saved. To be honest, Doug has set up the contracts well. 2015 will good (like 2014). 2016 will be very interesting. If OUR young guys and our minors do as we hope, then great. But if our minors and young guys are really just back end starters, and the odd bullpen guys, and the odd reserve outfielder... then 2016+ will be sad. 2015 will be good.

 

Just for fun, 2016 looks like this... Garza, Peralta, Smith, Nelson, Fiers for starters. Maybe that is good?

Infield we look for a new 1st baseman and third baseman.

 

Without looking, I think Gomez and Lucroy may be gone after 2016. Ouch. And Garza will be gone. So if you want to really panic. Leave it for 2017!

[superfly]

I hope we don't let Frankie go, he's been a great fit for our organization and provided his asking price is not outrageous I would like him back. Pretty sure he loves it here too.

 

Rami should be back, and I wouldn't be surprised if Lucroy gets an extension this offseason..he's earned it and under no circumstance should we let him walk.

[nate82]

How I see the off season going down.

 

The Brewers exercise their option from Ramirez but he opts out and the Brewers offer the QO which Ramirez rejects. I don't believe the Brewers are going to want to go more than 2-years with Ramirez and I think Ramirez believes he has another 3-4 years left in him. I would definitely not give Ramirez more than 2-years and that is pushing it unless some how the NL gets the DH after this season. I don't believe Ramirez will be with the Brewers next year.

 

Estrada will be released or traded hopefully traded for something.

 

The starting rotation should consist of Garza, Lohse, Gallardo, Nelson, and then you have free for all for that final spot in spring training with Smith, Pena, Jungmann, and Fiers.

 

K rod will be gone but the Brewers will not offer a QO to him. I believe they have an agreement in place where they will not offer him a QO at the end of this season. This means either Thornburg or Smith will take over the closer spot.

 

If the Brewers lose Ramirez to free agency I can see them picking up Headley depending on how much he will cost. I can also see the Brewers trying to pick up a left handed bat to platoon with Rogers as I don't see the Brewers bringing Reynolds back for another year.

[TooLiveBrew]

The starting rotation should consist of Garza, Lohse, Gallardo, Nelson, and then you have free for all for that final spot in spring training with Smith, Pena, Jungmann, and Fiers.

Think you're forgetting Peralta here. It's a nice problem to have, to be a Brewers fan & have so much quality starting pitching!

[SRB]

I may be the only one with this opinion (especially after tonight) but I would decline Gallardo's $13M option since I think a rotation of Lohse/Garza/Peralta/Nelson/Fiers is very solid. Alternatively they might be able to trade Gallardo. Either way, I feel like they need to free up some money in the starting rotation because they desperately need a 1B (preferably Cuddyer) and possibly a 3B if the situation with A-Ram doesn't work out.

[nate82]

The starting rotation should consist of Garza, Lohse, Gallardo, Nelson, and then you have free for all for that final spot in spring training with Smith, Pena, Jungmann, and Fiers.

Think you're forgetting Peralta here. It's a nice problem to have, to be a Brewers fan & have so much quality starting pitching!

 

[sarcasm]Peralta who?[/sarcasm]

 

[TooLiveBrew]

I may be the only one with this opinion (especially after tonight) but I would decline Gallardo's $13M option since I think a rotation of Lohse/Garza/Peralta/Nelson/Fiers is very solid. Alternatively they might be able to trade Gallardo. Either way, I feel like they need to free up some money in the starting rotation because they desperately need a 1B (preferably Cuddyer) and possibly a 3B if the situation with A-Ram doesn't work out.

I don't disagree with you that the club could look to move Yo, but I think declining his option would mean turning down a nice package of prospects that you could get via trade. No way do I want to see them just decline the option.

[SoupTown]

If ARAM chooses not to come back, he loses $14 mill salary. So, if he thinks he can get a 4 year x 40 mill contact on the market that makes sense - maybe. That means he is happy to play years 2,3,4 for $8.7 mill a year. And there is no way the Brewers decline their side of the $14 mill option (and pay out $4). So, in effect, the Brewers are paying $10 mill (on top of guaranteed) for ARAM for next year. So, again, as you say nate, if ARAM declined, the Crew would offer him QO. And then the other teams would balk at giving him a good pay, because they lose the draft pick.

 

ARAM will be our 3rd baseman next year. I am sure (famous last words).

[igor67]

I don't think the pitching is a log jam, more like enough of the right kind of depth. Too many teams have to chase a starter in trade when someone goes down, with Fiers and Jungman as #6 and #7 we have some very workable options there. Maybe enough to make a trade if something compelling comes along. Guys like Pena, Burgos, Hellweg can be in the Spring mix for reliever spots along with whatever else Doug can find in the bargain bin. No sense in paying a ton. That set-up in my mind makes a solid argument for taking a swing at Rollins as a nice shot in the arm for the offense right now, and a hedge on Segura for next year.

[endaround]

Keep in mind Ramirez is only in Milwaukee because he seems to care more about where he plays than most players. He opted out of $16 million from the Cubs for 2012 to get paid $16 million for 2012 and 2013 from the Brewers (and also agreed to have his 2014 salary paid in installments). Its just my guess, but it seems like he likes being able to go to his home in Chicago as often as possible and he knows that the Cubs would have traded him if he stayed.

[Funketown]

So rough estimate...They'll non-tender Estrada and won't pick up Weeks' option. Looks like if they pick up Ramirez at $14MM, Gallardo at $13MM and Parra gets about $6MM in arbitration that puts them around $80MM in salary. The only position players I see them needing assuming Ramirez is back is a platoon partner for Gennett and a 1B. The bullpen will also need some work.

 

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tz1FL3X6KldYXIoGOHXpv6A&output=html

[JohnBriggs12]

I would deal Lohse instead of Gallardo. Lohse won't get you as much back, but keep in mind once Lohse's contract ends, the Brewers aren't going to extend him a QO, so he'd just walk. An average season from Gallardo is worth a QO for 2016.

[Funketown]

If Lohse continues to put up 3.5 ERA and stays healthy, I imagine they'll give him a QO if there are no alarm bells. He's getting up there in years, but even if a QO is 1y/15MM, that's not too much more than he's been worth, and if he has hopes of something like 2/25, they may well walk with a pick.

[jerichoholicninja]

Short stop is starting to look more like first base in that the current options aren't anything great but any upgrades would be very costly or a lateral move at best.

[SRB]

I guess I still don't fully trust Gallardo. That's probably unfair because he's been very solid this season, but I can't forget his 2013 first half and desperately wishing the Brewers had traded him earlier.

 

$13M is probably a no brainer at this point though, just a shame that Fiers won't get another extended look and will have to be a backup SP at best.

[endaround]

Short stop is starting to look more like first base in that the current options aren't anything great but any upgrades would be very costly or a lateral move at best.

 

There a ton more options for SS though. And it helps that the best SS in the game wants out of Colorado.

 

Above average to average Free agents:

Hanley Ramirez

JJ Hardy

Jed Lowrie

Stephen Drew

Adsubral Cabrera

 

Possible available via trade:

Troy Tulowitski

Jimmy Rollins

Starlin Castro (Many Cub prospects are MI and Castro hasn't turned into the superstar as was hoped)

[endaround]

I guess I still don't fully trust Gallardo. That's probably unfair because he's been very solid this season, but I can't forget his 2013 first half and desperately wishing the Brewers had traded him earlier.

 

$13M is probably a no brainer at this point though, just a shame that Fiers won't get another extended look and will have to be a backup SP at best.

 

I know few if any will agree with me, but I would shop Peralta to see if there is someone out there who believes his ERA. Keri talked about how lucky Peralta has been in his last power ranking for Grantland:

 

http://grantland.com/features/mlb-the-30-astros-indians-braves-brewers-corey-kluber/

[nate82]

 

There a ton more options for SS though. And it helps that the best SS in the game wants out of Colorado.

 

Above average to average Free agents:

Hanley Ramirez

JJ Hardy

Jed Lowrie

Stephen Drew

Adsubral Cabrera

 

Possible available via trade:

Troy Tulowitski

Jimmy Rollins

Starlin Castro (Many Cub prospects are MI and Castro hasn't turned into the superstar as was hoped)

 

I could see the Rockies and the Cubs getting into a 3-team deal sending Castro to the Rockies and the third team getting Tulowitzki with the Cubs getting a few prospects in return. The Yankees come to mind but I don't believe they have the pitching prospects to pull that deal off.

 

I don't want anything to do with Rollins, Cabrera, Lowrie, or Drew. They are all on the decline and at best would only be a slight upgrade to Segura. Castro, Tulowitzki, Hardy, and Ramirez would be the only upgrades but you are looking at giving up a lot of prospects for Castro and Tulowitzki or giving up a lot of money for Ramirez. Hardy is probably the only player in that group that would be a decent upgrade compared to the cost it would take to get him.

 

 

 

I know few if any will agree with me, but I would shop Peralta to see if there is someone out there who believes his ERA. Keri talked about how lucky Peralta has been in his last power ranking for Grantland:

 

http://grantland.com/features/mlb-the-30-astros-indians-braves-brewers-corey-kluber/

 

I would trade anyone and everyone on the roster for the right price but I would first try to deal Gallardo first before trying to trade Peralta. But I could definitely see a deal with the Astros or the Diamondbacks being a possibility for Peralta or even the Marlins. Peralta could bring back a lot of talent compared to what the Brewers would receive for either Lohse or Gallardo. Unless Gallardo completely dominates all the way to the end of the season I don't see a team giving up all that much for him you might get a B prospect and a very young C type prospect. I wouldn't count on anything more than that for Gallardo.

 

 

On another note I wonder what it would take to get either Mike Olt or Josh Vitters from the Cubs? They are running out of room to put both of them with Bryant coming up and unless the Cubs decide to put two of the three in the OF which I don't see happening. It is an interesting log jam that the Cubs have.

[DHonks]

Peralta is still just scratching the surface with his 98 mph sinker. I'll take my chances with him over Yo any time. If he develops a true strikeout pitch...lookout!

 

As for Ramirez and K-Rod...they've both made it known--as endaround said--that they like Milwaukee. I wouldn't be surprised to see both extended for 2-3 years

[JohnBriggs12]

I guess I still don't fully trust Gallardo. That's probably unfair because he's been very solid this season, but I can't forget his 2013 first half and desperately wishing the Brewers had traded him earlier.

 

$13M is probably a no brainer at this point though, just a shame that Fiers won't get another extended look and will have to be a backup SP at best.

 

Gallardo's been as consistent and durable as any guy out there. One bad half in more than a half dozen seasons for a guy still under 30? Lack of trust is not a factor.

[JohnBriggs12]

If Lohse continues to put up 3.5 ERA and stays healthy, I imagine they'll give him a QO if there are no alarm bells. He's getting up there in years, but even if a QO is 1y/15MM, that's not too much more than he's been worth, and if he has hopes of something like 2/25, they may well walk with a pick.

 

Alarm bells are ringing right now (4.41 ERA since break). You don't risk paying $15 million for 37 year old starters. See Bronson Arroyo. Deal him while he still has value.

[TooLiveBrew]

Fwiw, Arroyo's salary this season (age-37) is $9.5MM. It was $16.45MM last season, but he posted a 3.79 ERA over 200+ IP, so he likely was worth the salary.

 

I do agree on selling high on Lohse this offseason.

[fondybrewfan]

It wouldn't be in DM's MO to trade Lohse this offseason though. MAYBE if Fiers remains lights out he thinks about it; but even then he would only trade him for an MLB piece in return (Perhaps such as a 1st basemen). Melvin has never been the type to try to guess on "selling high"; he really sticks with guys.

 

I wouldn't be opposed to trading Lohse but with as good as he has been I wouldn't wait to trade him just to trade him; I would want something worthwhile in return. Lohse's salary is not an issue for the Brewers even if he turns out to be terrible in 2015.

 

I am not considered about Lohse's performance post all star break; if a 4.41 ERA is bad Lohse I will take that any day. This is probably just a blip.

[reillymcshane]

I guess I still don't fully trust Gallardo. That's probably unfair because he's been very solid this season, but I can't forget his 2013 first half and desperately wishing the Brewers had traded him earlier.

 

$13M is probably a no brainer at this point though, just a shame that Fiers won't get another extended look and will have to be a backup SP at best.

I understand the temptation to let Gallardo go (leaving you with Garza, Lohse, Nelson, Peralta and Fiers in the rotation). But I just think depth at starting pitcher is so important. We've been immensely lucky this year. We've had one ineffective pitcher pulled, but we've only missed (so far) about 4-5 starts due to injury. That's a great statistic. I think back in 2011, when we made the playoffs, we had a similar thing happen. Look at the injuries to all the pitchers this year. I think something like 20 guys have had Tommy John surgery.

 

It's really important that we're not trotting out Figaro, Hand or other scrubs at the back end of the rotation. Having Fiers or Nelson is such an important option.

 

I have no illusion that we'll keep Estrada for $4-5 million. But keeping Yo should happen. If you don't, and you have an injury, you're counting on Jungmann or a Randy Wolf-like vet to take the #5 slot. I'd rather not do that. Jungmann may be an option down the road, but he's been very average at AAA. I'd give him another 1/2 year or full year to adapt.