Verlander's Mediocre 2014 Season... Fluke or sign of things to come?

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6341/justin-verlander

 

He's been awful virtually the whole season. Noticed he's sporting a 4.76 ERA after tonight's shelling by the Pirates.

 

5 years and 140 million to go after this season...

 

There are some awful contracts that the Tigers put out in the 2011-2013 era... Fielder, Verlander, Cabrera (only because of how long they are paying him)

[homer]

He's got a ton of innings on that arm.

[The stache]

Kate Upton is his Memo. Detroit needs to dress Glenn Close up in a white dress, and send her to Wrigley the next time the Tigers play the Cubs.

[Bombers]

I guess for me it's always a risk with those power arm guys. When you throw that high 90's stuff. What happens when your velocity decreases? Can you semi re invent yourself? Now I am not saying his velocity is down and I don't know what his secondary pitches are. But you have to be leary with the power arms. I don't see how anyone could have seen this coming though

[Bombers]

@Tom_Gage: #Tigers Verlander to have MRI on right shoulder after having soreness and "worst stuff of my career"

[TURBO]

Didn't he have a similar year 2 years ago, then bounced back strong last year?

[DuWayne Steurer]

Didn't he have a similar year 2 years ago, then bounced back strong last year?

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml

 

He was bad in 2008. WHen he was 25 years old. You can expect a guy to bounce back when he's 25. I don't know when he's 31.

[TooLiveBrew]

Many Brewers fans were convinced the sky was falling for Gallardo last season.

 

An injury/ailment makes the most sense to me regarding Verlander, both because a guy that talented wouldn't just lose ability so suddenly, & because of all the innings he's racked up.

 

If/Once he's healthy again, I think he's much more likely to get back much closer to his peak numbers than just plain old falling apart.

[lcbj68c]

I think he is just hurt and therefore not pitching well.

[DHonks]

Since when is a 4.76 ERA awful? Isn't that a #2 or 3? And that's in his worst year. I'm not worried at all about him,

[sveumrules]

Average ERA for AL starters is 4.00 this year. 4.76 is bottom 10 in MLB right next to Marco Estrada.

[danzig6767]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6341/justin-verlander

 

He's been awful virtually the whole season. Noticed he's sporting a 4.76 ERA after tonight's shelling by the Pirates.

 

5 years and 140 million to go after this season...

 

There are some awful contracts that the Tigers put out in the 2011-2013 era... Fielder, Verlander, Cabrera (only because of how long they are paying him)

Verlander very well could end up bouncing back after this season so long as he doesn't have a serious injury. To early to know right now.

 

That said, teams across baseball the last few years have gone on a massive spending binge handing out huge long term deals to both starting pitchers and position players. It's only a matter of when, not if many to most of these contracts become big albatrosses as these players get more years under their belts.

 

You have guys like Verlander, Sabathia, and Cain who have to worry their teams. As for position players, Prince looks to be in real decline and owed 24 million per until 2020. The Reds owe Votto a staggering 200 plus million through 2024. Pujols has been better this year, but still only has an .800 OPS and is owed 190 million through 2021. Josh Hamilton is owed another 90 million? Ryan Howard still owed 85 million. Cabrera could have trouble simply just walking from the on deck circle to the the plate on the back end of his contract when he'll be making 30 million per

 

Why do so many teams keep doing this? I get that baseball overall is swimming in money like never before, but man, most 5-6 year big money deals for veteran starting pitchers around age 30 and 7-10 year deals for veteran position players are very likely to become dead money years before the contracts are up.

 

Just imagine the contract which Boras will get for Max Scherzer come this offseason. I'd bet at minimum he'll get 6 years and quite possibly 7, at i'd assume 30 million per or more. Scherzer is really good and will certainly help whoever signs him, but he'll be in his 30's for each year of that deal. That team should hope to get at least three years worth the money he'll be paid before the likely decline and/or injuries set in.

[lcbj68c]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6341/justin-verlander

That said, teams across baseball the last few years have gone on a massive spending binge handing out huge long term deals to both starting pitchers and position players. It's only a matter of when, not if many to most of these contracts become big albatrosses as these players get more years under their belts.

 

You have guys like Verlander, Sabathia, and Cain who have to worry their teams. As for position players, Prince looks to be in real decline and owed 24 million per until 2020. The Reds owe Votto a staggering 200 plus million through 2024. Pujols has been better this year, but still only has an .800 OPS and is owed 190 million through 2021. Josh Hamilton is owed another 90 million? Ryan Howard still owed 85 million. Cabrera could have trouble simply just walking from the on deck circle to the the plate on the back end of his contract when he'll be making 30 million per

 

Why do so many teams keep doing this? I get that baseball overall is swimming in money like never before, but man, most 5-6 year big money deals for veteran starting pitchers around age 30 and 7-10 year deals for veteran position players are very likely to become dead money years before the contracts are up.

 

This. I cannot fathom complaining about Ryan Braun's extension when he maxes out around 19M, IIRC. We got him extremely cheap relative to his production for so many years. Even if he declines to the point of Pujols or Ryan Howard, we still aren't talking $30M. I'm hoping when Braun does start to decline, someone from the Lara and Co. are ready to be our next superstar and we can avoid these big money deals to older talent.

[JohnBriggs12]

Since when is a 4.76 ERA awful? Isn't that a #2 or 3? And that's in his worst year. I'm not worried at all about him,

 

Five+ years ago you could say that, but not now. It's a pitching dominant era now. Verlander's had a steady decline in velocity for 3 straight years. Could he still be successful? Sure but he's going to need to transition into a different type of pitcher.

[TauPentaRei]

As an A's fan, primarily, I can tell you that he will show up for the playoffs and he will be scary.

 

Inklings of his demise as last year's regular season wound down were made completely moot as he pitched exceptionally in games 1 and 5 of the ALDS.

 

I don't know, maybe he just has the A's number.

[brewcrewdue80]

Didn't he have a similar year 2 years ago, then bounced back strong last year?

 

Maybe you're thinking of Cole Hamels who sported an ERA north of 4 til around this point last season and then brought it back to respectability?

 

 

The long term contracts aren't going to change. That's the only way these teams win over said player in FA. I'm just surprised these contracts aren't built up in the early years. Rather than pay Verlander 20mil the first 3years and then 28 the next 5. Just pay the man 28 the first 5 and 20 the last 3? Heck give him 35.5mil the very first year and then pay him 22.5mil per season after that.

 

Or 35mil the first 2 years. Then 30mil. and just 20mil per the last 5seasons?

 

Why don't we see deals structured more that way? Robinson Cano's deal is a straight 24mil per for 10years. How does that work at age 40/41? Like really? Pay that man 30mil the first 5years. So you owe him 18per the final 5years?

 

Wish there were something like the NFL's contracts where there's money guaranteed, but a team can cut a player w/o owing that player all of his contract. (gotta be built in that way due to severe injuries...but not like we don't see injuries in MLB)

 

Anyway, is this a Fluke or things to come? The 4.76ERA is a Fluke(Fip at 4.07) His Hits/9 is up 1 while his Ks/9 are down 2.2 over his previous 4years. If I look back on his early numbers in his career, his current numbers would be around his 3.6ERA days. But he's nowhere close to being the under 3.3ERA SP he was.

 

So with that said, I think it's a sign of things to come, but he'll sport a 3.7-4.0ERA which still makes him capable of being a 3-4WAR SP.

[igor67]

I don't think people are surprised to see guys overpaid at the end of these deals, what stands out for me is the number of them where you aren't just looking at 1 or 2 ick years at the end, but 3 or more years of pure wasted money. Pujols atleast is producing some value, but the drop-off from All-world to OK regular or worse. Same with Prince, him not aging well isn't a major shock but I still figured he had more in the tank. It used to just be the pitchers that this would happen too.

[TooLiveBrew]

Didn't he have a similar year 2 years ago, then bounced back strong last year?

Verlander's 'what the heck?' year was 2008 (4.84 ERA in 201 IP)

[guylanderfridancies]

2011 he threw 251 innings +20.1 in the playoffs.

2012 he threw 238.1 innings +28.1 in the playoffs.

2013 he threw 218.1 innings +23 in the playoffs.

 

That's 707.2 regular season innings, and 71.2 high pressure, high stress playoff innings in the last 3-years.

 

Yea, I think his arm may be a little sore.

[Funketown]

His K/9 rate is down to 6.69; I suspect he's got some type of nagging injury or that he's just starting to wear down. That's nearly 800 innings from 2011 - 2013 including the playoffs, about 260 per year. His velocity is down quite a bit too.

[guylanderfridancies]

His K/9 rate is down to 6.69; I suspect he's got some type of nagging injury or that he's just starting to wear down. That's nearly 800 innings from 2011 - 2013 including the playoffs, about 260 per year. His velocity is down quite a bit too.

 

He's currently at 938 Innings since the start of the 2011 season. I think he needs some time off.