Purely hypothetical "what if" game - Greinke and Sabathia trades

[homer]

Some people hate this stuff and if that's you feel free to close the thread and post elsewhere.....

 

 

"What if" the Brewers had never made the trades for Sabathia and Greinke? For argument's sake, let's assume they didn't make any other trades but made the same free agent moves (i.e. Lohse and Garza). They'd have Escobar at short and Odorizzi in the rotation. Is that a better team than what they have now? Is it a better team going forward? Is that worth not making the trades? Seeing Odorizzi the other day got me thinking about this.

[trwi7]

Don't forget about Michael Brantley either who's sporting an OPS near .900 this year. So yes we would be better without making those trades.

[homer]

Don't forget about Michael Brantley either who's sporting an OPS near .900 this year. So yes we would be better without making those trades.

 

 

Crap. Totally forgot about him. Thanks.

[jjgott]

Maybe...we still might be waiting for our first playoff appearance since 1982 though

[sveumrules]

Sure we'd be better this year in theory, but we're already in a pretty good position to make the postseason as is. I'll take the 2 playoff appearances that would not have occurred without those trades over just about any hypothetical.

[djoctagone]

2008 was the first time the brewers drew over 3 million fans.

 

2008: 3,068,458

2009: 3,037,451

2010: 2,776,531

2011: 3,071,373

 

even with a departed sabathia, the fans came out in droves in 2009. take away that postseason appearance, and the brewers likely draw 200,000 - 400,000 fewer fans.

 

could the brewers have sustained the payroll they've had from 2008 - 2014 with fewer fans attending games?

[umphrey]

Going back to the Marcum trade, 3 years of Aramis is probably working out better than 6 of Lawrie.

[Samurai Bucky]

Going back to the Marcum trade, 3 years of Aramis is probably working out better than 6 of Lawrie.

 

Wasn't one of the knocks on ARam that he wasn't a good defensive player? He seems like he is doing a very good job...

[wildcat83]

Lorenzo Cain probably our 4th outfielder as well...

 

I would still make them. The run that CC had to end that season was awesome, and there is the winning breeds winning theory as well. The franchise might be in a totally different place right now without the playoff runs.

 

We may not have the free agents we do if the team never showed it would take risks to be competitive. Free agents don't gravitate to proven losers very easily.

 

That being said I'm happy we didn't sell the farm for an arm this year. We needed it then, the franchise needed to be over that hump, I think long term stability is more important now.

[SRB]

Well yeah, in 2014 we no longer have either so I would love to have Escobar, Odorizzi, Brantley, etc. just lying around. They were still both great trades though.

 

Also worth mentioning that the Sabathia trade almost netted us Mike Trout via the compensation pick.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

i'd gladly do those trades again and again. why? because they led to playoff appearances. half of the guys the brewers traded away have amounted to nothing. matt laporta? nobody. escobar? nobody. lorenzo cain? who? odorizzi hasn't yet to put up a solid season. brantley is the only good player the brewers lost. i don't think brantley would have made the impact that greinke did.

 

not all prospects are good prospects. the brewers are doing just fine without those guys. would anyone here really trade in the memories of '08 and '11 for a few no name prospects? i sure wouldn't.

[danzig6767]

Sure we'd be better this year in theory, but we're already in a pretty good position to make the postseason as is. I'll take the 2 playoff appearances that would not have occurred without those trades over just about any hypothetical.

To me, it wasn't just the two playoff appearances, it was also the great fun of the journey getting there in both years.

 

Given i'm old enough to remember many of those dark days of about 20 years of bad teams who often were out of the playoff chase by June 1st, to actually see the Brewers playing games in August and September which i could be heavily invested in was such a refreshing change. Usually by July i was used to barely watching games unless a prospect of interest was called up.

 

Football is my favorite sport, but there is something unique about following a baseball team who competes for a playoff berth all year. Watching so many games in a long 162 game season makes you get so invested into the team vs football which is only played once a week. Night after night each game can feel important even though there are 162 games.

[Boomer5]

Both trades were the right moves. The Sabathia trade put the Brewers on the map so to speak.

 

The Grienke trade was a bit tougher on our farm system, but it lead to the play offs and they flipped him for what we are hoping is a decent haul. All we need a certain SS to learn to hit again. Perhaps Pena isn't fully written off yet?

 

I still never understood the Lawrie move. I guess he was a major jerk so they wanted to move him ASAP. But Marcum was such a weak return, despite having a very good first 5 months for us.

[Outlander]

Not even counting the playoff appearances I think they are a better team now. My guess would be that they would have given up on Gomez by now and made Cain/Brantley the outfielders at some point and Lawrie would be having another down year instead of Ramirez. I would rather have Gomez/Davis/Ramirez than Cain/Brantley/Lawrie. I would also guess that only one of Odorizzi and Peralta would be in the rotation right now and quite frankly Odoirizzi would not be having a better year than Peralta is having this year. One of Odorizzi/Peralta would be playing the Nelson role this year so they would have more starting pitching depth and maybe would not have had to acquire Parra because they might be doing a Brantley/Davis platoon. It is just very hard to predict what would have happened because there are so many moving pieces and if you take back a few pieces there are others that go away. Additionally, who knows what desperate moves they would have potentially made to have a chance to reach the playoffs for the first time in 32 years.

[HiAndTight]

i'd gladly do those trades again and again. why? because they led to playoff appearances. half of the guys the brewers traded away have amounted to nothing. matt laporta? nobody. escobar? nobody. lorenzo cain? who? odorizzi hasn't yet to put up a solid season. brantley is the only good player the brewers lost. i don't think brantley would have made the impact that greinke did.

 

not all prospects are good prospects. the brewers are doing just fine without those guys. would anyone here really trade in the memories of '08 and '11 for a few no name prospects? i sure wouldn't.

 

That wasn't and isn't the question. It's a purely hypothetical question about how would this team look if they still had all the players they'd traded away. And you seem to be awfully dismissive of the players the Brewers traded away and I'm not sure why. None of them complained about the Brewers, none of them had a say, and they helped get the pitchers you so clearly are thrilled we got.

 

Calling guys like Lorenzo Cain a nobody is just...ridiculous.

 

Cain has a 3.1 WAR this year, is hitting over .300, 16 SB's, and a VERY good defender. That's a nobody?

Alcides Escobar is a very good SS. He's an outstanding defender like Cain, and is hitting about .280/.315. Not Arod, but really-really valuable player.

 

Odorizzi's "crime," here is that he hasn't yet put together a dominating season? HE'S 24 YEARS OLD!!! He was good as a 23 year old in the AL East and this year has a FIP of 3.46, has a K/9 of 10.06. What the heck do you want from him? Remember when you called Peralta an ace and said it was an "insult," to him to suggest that Jimmy Nelson is very similar to him?

Well, sorry to break it to you, but last year when Peralta was 24(same age as Odorizzi) he wasn't nearly as good as Odorizzi. In fact THIS YEAR he's has a FIP of 4.20 to Odorizzi's 3.46, about 3.5 fewer K's per 9 IP.

 

And then there's the one you did concede was alright, Brantley...who by the way has been more valuable than anyone on this Brewers team and is a borderline superstar.

 

 

 

So...nobody said that we shouln't have made the trades, rather, how would this team look with the Players we traded away. But trying to diminish the value of every player we traded away....I don't get the point there. Does that make you feel better if the players we traded fail? Don't we still have a historic 2nd half from CC and a couple playoff runs? So no need to distort how good the players we traded actually are.

I think this all goes back to your mantra about prospects are unproven(which is like saying water is wet to me, but I digress).

[RockCoCougars]

Bottom line, these were both 'win now' deals. I don't think that you can expect to win these on a long term basis. The Brewers got two playoff appearances and the other teams received some nice players. I'd call that a win/win. Now if the Brewers had missed the playoffs and/or one of the guys turned into a Hall of Fame type player, then all bets are off- but not the case here.

[HiAndTight]

Not even counting the playoff appearances I think they are a better team now. My guess would be that they would have given up on Gomez by now and made Cain/Brantley the outfielders at some point and Lawrie would be having another down year instead of Ramirez. I would rather have Gomez/Davis/Ramirez than Cain/Brantley/Lawrie. I would also guess that only one of Odorizzi and Peralta would be in the rotation right now and quite frankly Odoirizzi would not be having a better year than Peralta is having this year. One of Odorizzi/Peralta would be playing the Nelson role this year so they would have more starting pitching depth and maybe would not have had to acquire Parra because they might be doing a Brantley/Davis platoon. It is just very hard to predict what would have happened because there are so many moving pieces and if you take back a few pieces there are others that go away. Additionally, who knows what desperate moves they would have potentially made to have a chance to reach the playoffs for the first time in 32 years.

 

 

That's a big assumption, isn't it? Odorizzi is striking out on average 10 per 9 innings and has an FIP of about .7 runs a game lower than Peralta. But I don't know why only one could be in the rotation. If you want to play that type of hypothetical, MAYBE we offer Abreu even more money and don't sign Garza.

I also see no reason they would have given up on Gomez in favor of Brantley AND Cain. Cain is a very good player, solid player. But Gomez emerged before Cain played a full season. And Brantley and Gomez really started to ascend at the same time. I think the Brewers would have gladly made room on the roster for him.

 

I think it's 50/50 that Ramirez is signed. Lawrie was 21 years old when we signed Aram.

But.....lets say we had to go with Lawrie this year. He has been in and out of the line up, but he's also played just 20 fewer games than Aram and has a 1.5 WAR to ARam's 2.1. Just saying, that's a LOT of money we are saving.

 

Lineup

CF-Gomez

1B-Braun

RF-Brantley

3B-Ramirez

C-Lurcoy

LF-Cain

2B-Gennett

SS-Escobar

I'm putting Braun at 1st base. I think the argument that he was a really bad 3rd basemen means he'd be a really bad 1st basemen is ridiculous. He struggled with his throws. Braun made some extraordinary plays with his range. Now instead of having to get to his feet and rush a throw all the way across the diamond, he has to flip it to the pitcher. He's more than capable of doing that adequately.

We're better defensively in RF, LF, and SS(arguably). The lowest BA in that lineup would be Escobar's .278.

 

I'd probably be more inclined to start Davis, but Cain would give us a great defensive OF.

Rotation-

Lohse

Gallardo

Peralta

Garza

Odorizzi

Nelson

Nelson would probably go to the BP this year...and we could certainly use him out there. Odorizzi might be a better fit in the pen with that splitter he throws and his ability to get the K.

 

Bench-

I know Maldy would be on the bench. We'd probably still have Weeks and Lawrie would give us nice depth, but we're still really RH'ed heavy.

 

BP-Assuming we signed Garza, Odorrizi or Nelson would likely be in the pen giving it a nice boost, but relatively unchanged beyond that.

 

 

Obviously how the team is built would have changed, BUT if you just take the players that we traded away, I think we'd have a better defense. One that would not only have the same power(perhaps a bit more) but also would be deeper.

 

I think this team would be a much tougher team to beat in a playoff series.

[igor67]

While one can certainly play mix and match assumptions, Outlander is undoubtedly correct that if you truly go back and rewind the tape different choices will be made outside of the trades. Keep in mind that while Cain is performing nicely this year that is his 3rd year and his you have to live through some OK to completely unspiring seasons of offense. Escobar in 3000 PA has a career OPS of .644, with essentially no significant improvement. And with Brantley the Indians had to wait through close to 4 years of low .700 OPS' out of a LF, before he exploded this year. It is not just a matter of those prior playoff appearances, I'm not convinced the Brewers or a lot of teams would have still been trotting Brantely and Escobar out at this point. They aren't bad players, but its not like they have created obvious surplus value.

[Boomer5]

While one can certainly play mix and match assumptions, Outlander is undoubtedly correct that if you truly go back and rewind the tape different choices will be made outside of the trades. Keep in mind that while Cain is performing nicely this year that is his 3rd year and his you have to live through some OK to completely unspiring seasons of offense. Escobar in 3000 PA has a career OPS of .644, with essentially no significant improvement. And with Brantley the Indians had to wait through close to 4 years of low .700 OPS' out of a LF, before he exploded this year. It is not just a matter of those prior playoff appearances, I'm not convinced the Brewers or a lot of teams would have still been trotting Brantely and Escobar out at this point. They aren't bad players, but its not like they have created obvious surplus value.

 

I agree here. Obviously having Cain, Brantley, Jake O, and especially Escobar would be great now. But these guys are just now in 2014 putting it together and the trades were made in 08 and 11. In 2014 the Brewers are in the play offs picuture even with out them

 

The Brewers got quality and gave up quality. If Segura was hitting as advertised, this really wouldn't even be a discussion.

[HiAndTight]

While one can certainly play mix and match assumptions, Outlander is undoubtedly correct that if you truly go back and rewind the tape different choices will be made outside of the trades. Keep in mind that while Cain is performing nicely this year that is his 3rd year and his you have to live through some OK to completely unspiring seasons of offense. Escobar in 3000 PA has a career OPS of .644, with essentially no significant improvement. And with Brantley the Indians had to wait through close to 4 years of low .700 OPS' out of a LF, before he exploded this year. It is not just a matter of those prior playoff appearances, I'm not convinced the Brewers or a lot of teams would have still been trotting Brantely and Escobar out at this point. They aren't bad players, but its not like they have created obvious surplus value.

 

 

This isn't 1998 anymore. First of all, OPS isn't as important for certain players. But beyond that, a .644 OPS from a very good defensive SS is really not that bad. But for your 9th hitter, if you're getting a great glove at SS and a decent batting average(.293 BA two years ago, .278 this year to go along with 80 SB's in 88 attempts the last 3 years) I don't see you giving up on that player.

 

Same goes for Brantley who by the way has played more CF than LF. One, just about every team has to "wait through," players not putting up huge numbers at the age of 22, 23.

 

Brantley was at 22 years old came up as a Sept callup and put up a .707 OPS in 28 games. He hit .313/.356 that year.

Struggled at 23 years of age and was up and down.

At 24, it was his first full year starting.

At 25 he had a .750 OPS with a .288 BA and .348 OBP.

 

At what point exactly do you believe the Brewers would have given up on him?

 

And saying they waited 4 years of low .700 OPS before he exploded this year is disingenuous. He was a Sept callup in the first "year," you're talking about, then had two average years at 23 and 24 playing CENTER and LF.

In other words, he was a 2 WAR player in his 2nd season, a 3.2 WAR player in his 3rd year and is now on pace to be about a 6 WAR player.

 

Unless you believe the Brewers are going to find a new SS and LF'er, then I find it highly unlikely that they wouldn't have waited for him to develop, which didn't take nearly as long as you suggested to become a good player.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

i'd gladly do those trades again and again. why? because they led to playoff appearances. half of the guys the brewers traded away have amounted to nothing. matt laporta? nobody. escobar? nobody. lorenzo cain? who? odorizzi hasn't yet to put up a solid season. brantley is the only good player the brewers lost. i don't think brantley would have made the impact that greinke did.

 

not all prospects are good prospects. the brewers are doing just fine without those guys. would anyone here really trade in the memories of '08 and '11 for a few no name prospects? i sure wouldn't.

 

That wasn't and isn't the question. It's a purely hypothetical question about how would this team look if they still had all the players they'd traded away. And you seem to be awfully dismissive of the players the Brewers traded away and I'm not sure why. None of them complained about the Brewers, none of them had a say, and they helped get the pitchers you so clearly are thrilled we got.

 

Calling guys like Lorenzo Cain a nobody is just...ridiculous.

 

Cain has a 3.1 WAR this year, is hitting over .300, 16 SB's, and a VERY good defender. That's a nobody?

Alcides Escobar is a very good SS. He's an outstanding defender like Cain, and is hitting about .280/.315. Not Arod, but really-really valuable player.

 

Odorizzi's "crime," here is that he hasn't yet put together a dominating season? HE'S 24 YEARS OLD!!! He was good as a 23 year old in the AL East and this year has a FIP of 3.46, has a K/9 of 10.06. What the heck do you want from him? Remember when you called Peralta an ace and said it was an "insult," to him to suggest that Jimmy Nelson is very similar to him?

Well, sorry to break it to you, but last year when Peralta was 24(same age as Odorizzi) he wasn't nearly as good as Odorizzi. In fact THIS YEAR he's has a FIP of 4.20 to Odorizzi's 3.46, about 3.5 fewer K's per 9 IP.

 

And then there's the one you did concede was alright, Brantley...who by the way has been more valuable than anyone on this Brewers team and is a borderline superstar.

 

 

 

So...nobody said that we shouln't have made the trades, rather, how would this team look with the Players we traded away. But trying to diminish the value of every player we traded away....I don't get the point there. Does that make you feel better if the players we traded fail? Don't we still have a historic 2nd half from CC and a couple playoff runs? So no need to distort how good the players we traded actually are.

I think this all goes back to your mantra about prospects are unproven(which is like saying water is wet to me, but I digress).

Just because I don't think they're good doesn't mean I have something against them. There is nothing wrong with what I said about Odorizzi. He has yet to do anything of relevance. He's young and unproven. He could be good or could be a flash in the pan.

 

Alcides Escobar is nothing special. I'll take Segura 100x over him. We've seen how good Segura can be. I think he'll be consistently good once he matures. Escobar was hyped to death and was supposed to be the next big thing. He's not bad, but he's nothing special either. I was a bit harsh on Cain. I take that back. He's still nowhere close to the guy the Brewers have in CF right now. These guys got the Brewers great players because of what they did in the minors. As minor league players they were great. Their perceived value was far greater than their actual production at the MLB level. I don't have much respect for Brewers prospects because they haven't earned it. I don't trust Brewers prospects, especially pitchers. They have fallen short of the hype often. I trust Cardinals prospects more because most of them are consistently good.

[monty57]

I don't trust Brewers prospects, especially pitchers.

 

Then we should probably trade Gallardo, Peralta and Nelson for some other team's prospects ASAP to strengthen our playoff hopes this year.

 

 

To topic:

 

Regarding the Greinke and Marcum trades, I think that we were going down one of two roads that offseason. If we didn't make those trades, then we would have traded away Fielder and Hart for sure and potentially guys like Weeks. Melvin explored trading Fielder and Hart, but was asking the world in return (two young stud MLB-ready pitchers for Fielder) so he couldn't make a deal and instead went "all in." It's impossible to know how things would've panned out, but if we had traded them, we would have those players to add to the ones already being discussed (Cain, Escobar, Brantley, etc)

[Point Beer Is Best]

Well yeah, in 2014 we no longer have either so I would love to have Escobar, Odorizzi, Brantley, etc. just lying around. They were still both great trades though.

 

Also worth mentioning that the Sabathia trade almost netted us Mike Trout via the compensation pick.

 

This is the one that kills me. "What if" the Yankees didn't sign Tex and we got the Yankees 1st round pick instead of the Angels and drafted Trout? Trout-Gomez-Braun outfield?

 

We ended up with a higher comp pick that season for losing Brian Shouse. And got nothing for Ben Sheets due to his injury.

[Patrick425]

i'd gladly do those trades again and again. why? because they led to playoff appearances. half of the guys the brewers traded away have amounted to nothing. matt laporta? nobody. escobar? nobody. lorenzo cain? who? odorizzi hasn't yet to put up a solid season. brantley is the only good player the brewers lost. i don't think brantley would have made the impact that greinke did.

 

not all prospects are good prospects. the brewers are doing just fine without those guys. would anyone here really trade in the memories of '08 and '11 for a few no name prospects? i sure wouldn't.

 

That wasn't and isn't the question. It's a purely hypothetical question about how would this team look if they still had all the players they'd traded away.

 

Actually that was the part of the question. Here is the original post:

 

"What if" the Brewers had never made the trades for Sabathia and Greinke? For argument's sake, let's assume they didn't make any other trades but made the same free agent moves (i.e. Lohse and Garza). They'd have Escobar at short and Odorizzi in the rotation. Is that a better team than what they have now? Is it a better team going forward? Is that worth not making the trades? Seeing Odorizzi the other day got me thinking about this.

 

I think vegasbrewcrew was answering the part I bolded of the original post. I don't know that I agree with him that the players that were traded were "nothing", but it doesn't matter to me whether or not we would be a better team now, I agree with him that I would do those trades again in a heart beat.

[TheCrew07]

I haven't read the thread past the OP but I feel like I should probably comment since I've been so outspoken about the short-term philosophy the Brewers have embarked on since 2006. I completely understand that's the way baseball has traditionally operated, I just vehemently disagree that it's a viable strategy for Milwaukee to follow. I'm not going to elaborate on that further as I have 100s of posts on this subject over the years which should leave no doubt to my reasoning if people will actually take the time to read them.

 

Undoubtedly other moves would have been made, the Brewers weren't going to hang onto "surplus" talent and roll with the craptastic pitching they had in house so my issue has always been the targets, not the idea of trading for pitching, which I believe is absolutely necessary when you aren't developing pitching in house.

 

Melvin, like many posters here on the forum believe in "good enough" pitching, as in good enough pitching to get into the playoffs and then let the chips fall where they may. I've always been looking to build a dynasty where the organization is extremely competitive year in and year out and to do that requires impact pitching at the MLB level and depth of impact pitching in the organization. So where as many people focus on the 8 position players who are out there every day I've been the exact opposite, looking to get 3 #2 type pitchers or more than we can control for years to come.

 

With that in mind I've always focused on young pitching. I would have targeted players like Buccholz and Niemann, players with talent who were stuck in AAA while their teams made post season pushes. There aren't a ton of deals for young impact pitching floating around so in order to capitalize on those deals Melvin would have to be willing to give up a piece that would have hurt the big league club on the surface like Hart or Hardy. I say on the surface because in the end I think those deals would have ended up being a wash in that first year by erasing negative WAR from the pitching rotation. This organization has never been willing to sell if they think the MLB is "in it", they've historically wanted to buy with prospects.

 

Since I've always wanted young impact pitching to team with Gallardo and build around (now Peralta) I'm much more flexible when it comes to trades, I'm looking to maximize the potential return not arbitrarily limit myself to predefined MLB team situations... I'd trade just about anyone at any time if the return is what I was looking for... Prospect for prospect deals? Sure! MLB pieces for impact pitching prospects? Sure! Really the only type of deal I've been against are the rental player deals because less than 2 years later all the same problems come back around again. I'm into fixing problems, the actual core issues, I'm not into applying band aids to the MLB rotation to get by. Also, I really didn't have any faith in the Brewers' ability to draft and develop pitching so draft picks have never appealed to me.

 

What I would like is what Tampa Bay has been able to do; get over the hump with impact pitching and then use that pitching to continually cycle back fresh impact arms into the organization. Pitching is king and always will be, everyone needs it and most teams don't have enough of it so if you have surplus pitching then you're bargaining from a truly powerful position. We can continue to draft and attempt to develop pitching, but being to able to cycle players away as they approach FA lessens the burden on the part of the farm system with which the Brewers have historically struggled.

 

There are 1-3 deals per year in which young impact pitching is involved, that's where I would have looked to make a splash. I've always liked Odorizzi, he was my favorite pitching prospect at the time of the Greinke trade, I thought he would be a #2 but his secondary stuff just never turned that corner to be filthy so BA ultimately ended up being correct in that he'll likely be a #3. Regardless I would love to have a relatively young rotation full of legitimate 2s and 3s, players that we could later flip and recycle for younger versions of themselves. I'd like to have enough depth where we can make decisions based more on talent rather than experience and/or cost.

 

Give me 3 young #2 type pitchers and I feel very good about a playoff series against anyone. I don't care about "proven", I care about relative talent, I'm always willing to be patient with and give talent the opportunity to shine. Baseball needs to get past the idea that young players need to be productive right away or they aren't "ready", every player is going to have his own learning curve. Instead of being hounded by the pressure to produce they need the room to be comfortable and learn from failure without constantly having to look over their shoulder. This is basic sports psychology stuff that MLB has typically been horrible at, baseball is probably the most mentally challenging sport there is because the margins between good and bad are so very small.

 

I believe professional sports are a young man's game so I'm looking to cut bait with all players by the time they are 31-32 and continually turn the roster over. I don't believe in "Brewer for life", I used to as I grew up infatuated with that notion as I'm sure many others on this forum did, but I just don't think those romantic/idealistic notions have any practical application in the modern sports world.

 

I've thrown out tons of alternative specific trade scenarios in the past, some would have flopped (McGowan), some would have worked out well (Niemann), but in general I would have looked towards talented yet inexperienced pitchers as opposed to proven CY quality pitchers with limited team service.

 

Give me talent and longevity over an immediate short term production boost. With the idea of the playoffs expanding yet again I think it will allow teams to think more about building something long-term as no longer have to be 1 of the top 2 teams in the league to get in, or 4 as was the case for most of the Brewers' recent history. It's much easier to be in the top 6 or 8 in any given year than it is to be in the top 4 every single year.