Theo and the Cubs

[Fear The Chorizo]

100 million remaining on Hamels' contract, with the Phillies' payroll being in as awful a situation as it currently is...I would imagine the Phillies would seriously consider sending Hamels to Chicago if the Cubs are willing to pay that amount and part ways with a solid middle IF prospect to groom for replacing Rollins or Utley down the road. Many Cubs fans are wondering where Alcantrera will play everyday and whether he'd transition to OF with better prospects/players in the Cubs system being groomed for SS (Castro, Russel), 2B (Baez), and CF (Almora). Alcantrera's had a pretty solid 1st month in the bigs, and I can see him being tradebait that could move in this sort of deal.

 

The way free agent pitching contracts are going, I'm sure a team like the Cubs who desperately need frontline pitching would view 5 years of Hamels at 100 Million as a bargain, even if it costs young, cost-controlled talent...especially if it's already blocked by prospects with higher ceilings.

[Boomer5]

Potentially good plan if you forget Theo has built 3 last place teams in a row

 

Kind of understating what Epstein has done in his career.

 

Not really. He has left Boston fans questioning exactly what he specifically actually did for them, and Cubs fans aren't exactly happy with the state of the MLB roster.

 

The Cubs are indeed building some serious hitting talent, and they will try and time their development and low cost years with picking up high priced starting pitching. It can work if they are willing to go all in on a Big three and outbid teams like LA/Boston/NYY. If not, well, we have seen how that goes.

 

I do love their ability to spot electric talent, unlike the Brewers who are driving me insane. Short drive, but still.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/

 

No World Series victories from 1918 - 2003. Three World Series victories in the past decade. In today's world where many have the attention span of a gnat, I suppose some Boston fans (in a down year after a World Series win) are indeed questioning "what he specifically actually did for them," but the quick & easy answer to that is that he put together the framework from which they could have sustainable success.

 

He turned around Boston, and then took over a Cubs franchise in a total mess. No one knows what success he will have, but it looks like they are about ready to turn the corner and become a franchise stocked with talent from top to bottom that can sustain success for the long-term.

 

Theo's moves were not ultimately the turning point, take a look at him vs Duquette. His FA moves, in particular, were disastrous. Look, I wish the Brewers had the Cubs prospects for sure, but Theo is grossly over rated.

[Boomer5]

So what's the move with Hammels? Give up Russell in exchange for an ace with a big contract?

[fondybrewfan]

I give them about a 5% chance of working something out for him. Dealing Russell would make sense though since they would be dealing from an area of strength.

 

From everything Amaro said around the trading deadline he is probably going to ask for something stupid like Kris Bryant. The Phillies are terrible and are going to be terrible for a long time until Amaro decides to bring in some young talent. Having Hamels on the team isn't really doing anything right now.

[Boomer5]

It would be an impressive move if they can turn Samardzija into Hammels with a less than ace FA contract. If they did that, they would have to start the clock with Bryant et al next year.

 

Personally, I think teams shoot themselves in the foot by worrying too much about the super two. If the worst case is the player is going to be too elite and expensive, that's a heck of a problem to have.

[monty57]

As long as this would be for one of the Cubs' shortstop prospects (not Bryant), this move really could make sense for both teams. The Phillies get out from under a big contract while picking up a top-line prospect. It also opens the door to trading Rollins in the offseason for more prospects.

 

Meanwhile, the Cubs get a front-line starter for years to go along with their hitting prospects. Then they go after one of the "big three" FAs (Scherzer, Shields, Lester) and they've got a dominant 1-2 punch. That may not make them favorites for the Central, but they'd definitely be moving up the ladder and it would be one tough division next year.

[brewfanks]

My Cubs fan brother-in-law is becoming increasingly obnoxious... Please give me hope that the Cubs will not pass the Brewers in the next two years?

[TheCrew07]

Just a note here to remind everyone once again the the GMs in baseball do not draft or sign amateur players, that is exclusively the domain of the Scouting Director. In this case when Epstein came in he split amateur scouting into separate departments and they now have both a domestic and international scouting and other teams have followed suit. They keep moving people around in Chicago so I lost track of who's doing what, but I have been keeping track of the SDs.

 

Hendry didn't draft anyone, he astutely plucked Tim Wilken from the Rays who actually oversaw both professional and amateur scouting until Theo came in and split responsibilities up. The Cubs current SD is a first timer Matt Dorey but both he and Jaron Madison have absolutely nailed the last 3 drafts . Madison came from the Padres, was the SD for a year, and is now the Farm Director.

 

Wilken had an awful draft in 2010 (although he's one of the best scouts in the business), but since 2011 those 3 have combined to kill it, plus picking up Soler on the international market.

 

Queue the high draft pick excuse... despite that's exactly how the Brewers acquired Fielder, Weeks, and Braun.

 

The Cubs will have the means and the opportunity to drastically upgrade their pitching if they are willing to do so which is something the Brewers couldn't do with that first wave of prospects. Nothing is written in stone but sitting here pretending that they aren't a threat is as foolhardy as it was to make the same claims about Pittsburgh when they were clearly ascending as a franchise. This is a very easy train to see coming...

[owbc]

You guys have done a nice job convincing me that the Cubs are a serious threat. I'm now very concerned. Thanks :-)

[brewcrewdue80]

Among the immediate Prospect concerns of the Cubs is also the International signings they made last year nabbing what? #1 and #3?

Eloy Jimenez-OF 26G ..693OPS 2HRs Gleyber Torres-SS 30G .797OPS 1HR .295avg ...That's 2 Gilbert Laras a year ahead in progression.

Also nabbed SPs Erling Moreno(17th) 5G 4S .79ERA 9k-3bb in 11.1 ip Jen-Ho Tseng(29) 16G/14S 2.47ERA .90 Whip 73k-13BB in 87ip

And 3b Wladimir Galindo(25) 62G .818OPS 7HRs

 

These are names that are 2017/18 potential adds to the Cubs team besides this glut super 6 they have within a year. Tseng was an older international signing who's 19 now. He likely shoots up the system far quicker than Moreno who may be a '19 addition at earliest.

 

To me my projections would be the Cubs add Lester/Shields followed by Price with Edwards joining the rotation with Price and Tseng joining in 2017 mid year. And I'm thinking WS contention for Cubs 2017 after having Playoff sniffs in 2015 and a Playoff appearance in 2016 getting their young core a taste.

 

The Cubs will be pearched atop the Central for a long time to come.

[Boomer5]

You guys have done a nice job convincing me that the Cubs are a serious threat. I'm now very concerned. Thanks :-)

 

They still need to get pitching.

[homer]

I'm glad they missed out on the Tanaka sweepstakes.

[RockCoCougars]

I for one am not ready to cede the Central to the Cubs for the next decade just yet. Even if most of these prospects pan out, to compete they are going to have to sign some free agent pitchers to big deals. Epstein's track record with multi-year deals in free agency is atrocious.

[TheCrew07]

Yea because the Brewer's FA pitching record under Melvin is spectacular...

 

I don't want to jinx Lohse but so far he's the only one hanging in there, though Wolf did for 2 seasons as well.

[SRB]

Yea because the Brewer's FA pitching record under Melvin is spectacular...

 

I don't want to jinx Lohse but so far he's the only one hanging in there, though Wolf did for 2 seasons as well.

 

"Hanging in there"? The Lohse signing was nothing short of fantastic, and the Garza signing is showing a lot of promise as well. Yeah, Suppan and Looper were enormous duds (and Wolf became an enormous dud), but I think that's the nature of signing free agent pitchers. The Suppan deal is the only one that never made sense even from day one. Also have to give Melvin credit for scrap-heap finds like Chris Narveson.

[LouisEly]

When will it be time for us to start taking the Cubs seriously?

I believe the answer to the question is, "once they are not in last place by the draft, much less the All-Star game".

[TheCrew07]

It's much longer list than that (Looper, Davis, Hall, Hart, Weeks, Riske, and Gagne off the top of my head) and it's awfully difficult to claim anything about Garza before the contract is even 25% up.

 

Of course Free Agency is a trap, I've been saying it for years and have no desire to revisit that conversation. My main point here is that people are continually calling out our division rivals for doing the same things the Brewers did to get to where they did... only our division rivals have more resources at their disposal whether it be in depth of talent, financial resources, or both.

 

For any Brewer fan to criticize any other GM for bad contracts is hypocritical at best when to date Mike Cameron's contract has been the only deal which worked out well start to finish.

 

I'm not saying Brewer fans should like the other teams in the division but I do think we're all capable of objectively respecting them for what they've done and the talent they have without being dismissive for whatever reason(s) one would choose.

 

I hate the Cubs as much as anyone on this board, I will never attend another Cub game at Miller Park, but at the same I'm not going to pretend that the Brewers are truly the most talented team in the division and claim that they are well positioned for the future. The Pirates, Cubs, and Cardinals have done well on the farm and have the talent to maintain or ascend while the Brewers and Reds... not so much.

[Boomer5]

Yea because the Brewer's FA pitching record under Melvin is spectacular...

 

I don't want to jinx Lohse but so far he's the only one hanging in there, though Wolf did for 2 seasons as well.

 

I can't speak for everyone here, but my point was Theo was horrible in FA with the Red Sox. I didn't make any comments comparing him to Melvin. I have plenty of criticism for Melvin, and more specifically, the Brewers lack of ability to draft.

[logan82]

Melvin has generally been bad in FA but we still made the postseason twice. A lot of parallels can be drawn between the Cubs now and the Brewers in 2003ish. The huge difference being the Cubs have more money to spend.

[Boomer5]

Melvin has generally been bad in FA but we still made the postseason twice. A lot of parallels can be drawn between the Cubs now and the Brewers in 2003ish. The huge difference being the Cubs have more money to spend.

 

That's true. Theo will have to show he can pick up pitching though for his plan to work. The line up looks to be frightening offensively to be sure.

[reillymcshane]

A note from MLB trade rumors saying that some of Lester's old teammates expect him to sign with the Cubs this off season:

 

Some of Jon Lester‘s former teammates believe the southpaw will sign with the Cubs this offseason. Lester, of course, has ties to Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, and the Cubs’ recent waiver claim of Cole Hamels indicates that the team is prepared to spend big money on a top-tier starting pitcher.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/08/rosenthals-latest-tigers-lester-front-offices.html

 

The Cubs will be seriously pitching challenged next year, even if they sign a starter or two. Plus, some of their young guys will no doubt need some time to adjust to the majors. I won't be too worried about them until 2016 or 2017. And even then, a lot of these prospects need to pan out for them. And injuries can derail a team pretty quickly.

[dlk9s]

I can't stop reading the subject line of this thread to the tune of "Benny and the Jets."

 

Th-th-th-Theo and the Cubs...

[danzig6767]

I for one am not ready to cede the Central to the Cubs for the next decade just yet. Even if most of these prospects pan out, to compete they are going to have to sign some free agent pitchers to big deals. Epstein's track record with multi-year deals in free agency is atrocious.

To me, the two most important things which big time helped Theo in Boston weren't moves he made, but instead moves he tried hard to make, but fell through.

 

1. The biggest was when Theo was so close to acquiring A-Rod, only to have the players union squash the deal over the restructuring of Rodriguez's contract. ESPN recently did a pretty fascinating 30 for 30 piece on that whole A-Rod situation between the Red Sox and Yankees, interviewing many of the parties involved. Theo and the Red Sox were nearly certain they had A-Rod, only to be devastated as not only the trade fell through, but then Rodriguez went to the Yankees.

 

2. Theo waived Manny Ramirez hoping any team would take on his contract, only to see Manny be a huge factor in ending the Red Sox title drought.

 

Fairly often in pro sports, the moves a GM tries to make, but fall through for whatever reason can end up being as big or bigger saviors than good moves made. Ron Wolf mentioned something similar in his book about his tenure as Packers GM.

[homer]

Jed Hoyer is the GM in Chicago. Theo is President. So Hoyer probably has more say in player moves than Theo.

[danzig6767]

Jed Hoyer is the GM in Chicago. Theo is President. So Hoyer probably has more say in player moves than Theo.

Do you really believe that? Believe that if say Hoyer want to sign or trade for X player, but Theo disagreed, that Hoyer would have the final say? I don't.