Theo and the Cubs

[Raw Biz]

I am really liking just about every move that Theo & company have made since arriving in Chicago. First, there's the drafting & international signings (Baez, Bryant, Almora, Soler, etc.).

 

They've added some formerly highly thought of and/or successful pitchers (e.g., Hammel, Arrieta, Doubront, now claiming Jacob Turner), some of which they have been able to trade for some highly touted prospects (e.g., Russell/McKinney).

 

Theo is quietly building a winner down in Chicago. I know many of us here realize this. When will it be time for us to start taking the Cubs seriously? I say they start to be competitive next year but we should really fear them in 2016.

[TheCrew07]

I've mentioned this in the past but I would think 2016 would be pretty realistic. They will be very young position player wise next year even with Alcantara and Baez getting some playing time now. I would think all of Russell, Bryant, and Soler will be in the mix during the 2015 season at some point, but that will be a ton of young talent to build around.

 

They have a couple of interesting pitchers but no one who profiles as a top of the rotation guy. However if they can sign a couple of those guys to gowith their hitting depth it could be very interesting (or disheartening as a Brewers' fan). Price would line up very well with their needs for 2016, I would think he would be a guy they'd be all over.

 

They can solve their hitting issues in house and they have the money to spend on pitching, it's just a matter of landing that pitching in FA or via trade. They have a ton of SS depth, and if you don't have pitching depth that's the next best position to have a surplus of from a trade stand point.

[SRB]

Theo is doing a great job, but I'm not ready to declare them contenders yet. Even if all of their big prospects pan out, they are too offense heavy. They have almost no pitching coming up, so they're going to have to rely on promising cast-offs like Turner, and that's a big gamble.

 

I take it Theo's strategy is to stockpile players like Addison Russell who he can then flip for pitching when they need it, but again, a lot of things need to happen as planned to become a good team.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Baez and Alcantrera were drafted by none other than Jim Hendry, so it's not all from Theo's regime. Bryant and Almora fell in their laps in recent drafts because they were picking at the top due to how bad the MLB club was. Not knocking the drafts of Theo & company, just indicating that their best prospects largely are their high 1st rounders and top international signees when they had more $ than anyone to throw at international talent some of those years. not hitting on top 5 picks kills organizations, they've simply taken advantage of the draft/int'l systems as much as possible by intentionally being awful at the MLB level the past 3 seasons.

 

Until the Cubs go out and buy/trade for a pitching staff with cash and the plethora of prospects they're amassing, they're going to continue to struggle. The gap that needs filling in their farm system is pitching. the have been able to flip alot of marginal pitching for prospects in recent years, but they've also signed Edwin Jackson to an untradeable contract - so both hits and misses on that front.

 

The Cubs have slowly turned the corner this season, both from an organizational development standpoint and an off the field standpoint with their Wrigley renovation plan. I think the fire sale has essentially stopped in Chicago, simply because they have nothing left to trade off the MLB team that would be deemed expendable/valuable. They currently have the rooftop owners by the nuts, and renovations will get underway this offseason, which will lead to increased revenue streams and give the Ricketts family much needed payroll flexibility. Many also forget the amount of debt the Ricketts had to leverage in order to buy the Cubs a few years ago, and getting the renovation done is a priority for them to be able to build a sustainable contender.

 

I think the Cubs' best move was getting Rizzo and giving him time to develop at the MLB level - he's turned into an elite 1B, when 2 years ago many wondered why Theo and Jed went after him so hard via trades ( I think Jed traded for him 2-3 times depending on what organization he moved to)

 

When the Cubs get their renovations completed AND sort their TV contract out, then they're going to be something to reckon with. Of all the prospects seemingly ready to set the world on fire in MLB, 1/2 of them will be solid MLB players, 1/4 will probably flame out, and 1/4 will be difference makers. For them, it's all about finding and being able to pay for pitching.

 

For me, 2016 will be the 1st year they contend for a playoff spot, assuming continued development/health of their key players and a few free agent pitching contracts (I think Scherzer is a target this offseason, Price next offseason). I see 2017-2018 as a realistic timeline for them to have enough talent to contend for something more than a wild card spot....and beyond.

[rickh150]

They could probably compete for the playoffs next year with a couple of top line starters .... tough to come by though. You only need to be a little over .500 to be in the wild card race.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Brewers have to hit the window here the next couple years...Cubs could own the division for a long time after that. Just think of all those brand new annoying fans they are going to attract. I hope Mark A jacks up the prices huge on those Cubs games.

[FVBrewerFan]

When will it be time for us to start taking the Cubs seriously?

 

If they win 3 or 4 vs the Brewers next road trip I'll be taking them seriously.

[owbc]

So far, the Ricketts haven't shown any interest in putting a winning product on the field. They are interested in making money. I'm not convinced they will spend the big bucks on free agents or even signing their young players. Maybe their attitude will change in a few years, but for now I'm not concerned.

[trwi7]

So far, the Ricketts haven't shown any interest in putting a winning product on the field. They are interested in making money. I'm not convinced they will spend the big bucks on free agents or even signing their young players. Maybe their attitude will change in a few years, but for now I'm not concerned.

 

They're rebuilding? You expected them to just throw money all over the place?

[Fear The Chorizo]

So far, the Ricketts haven't shown any interest in putting a winning product on the field. They are interested in making money. I'm not convinced they will spend the big bucks on free agents or even signing their young players. Maybe their attitude will change in a few years, but for now I'm not concerned.

 

pretty much every single thing in this post is wrong. They've thrown a TON of money and resources into their farm system and scouting/development structure, which was non-existent before Theo was hired (by the Ricketts, for big money, by the way). Rizzo and Castro both signed big pre-arby contract extensions last year. They've spent the past few seasons trading away horrible contracts given out by Hendry (I think Soriano is still being paid about 18 million by the Cubs this season), so their seemingly low payroll is actually inflated with players no longer on their roster, whom the Cubs picked up salary in trades in order to get something in return.

 

The Ricketts have allowed Theo and Jed to run the baseball side, which has been a complete teardown of the MLB roster over the past 3 seasons along with a total rebuild of the organization from the ground up. It might seem like the Cubs are being cheap, but I guarantee that as this dead money falls off their books, the Cubs are going to operate like a team without payroll limitations when it comes to signing their own talented players and bringing in free agents worth signing.

[brewcrewdue80]

The Cubs are about to Sport an AL offensive Juggernaut in the NL in a Pitcher's Era. Don't forget their #1 pick this year Schwarber who's already moved up 2 levels and is in A+

 

I won't be surprised at all if the Cubs compete next season. It isn't out of the question with Rizzo-1b/Baez-2b/Bryant-3b/Alcantara-OF/Castro-SS/Almora-OF/Soler-OF and Russell as Utility Inf/backup? Schwarber future at Catcher/OF/1b whatever gets him in the lineup down the road?

 

Of the prospects-Almora appears to be the only bat/prospect that may flame out vs. expectations. The real deal is this. Bryant will be a future #3 the likes of Braun and Rizzo will be the benefactor of getting to bat cleanup behind him. Stud #3/4 hitters locked in make them a team to worry about like Braun/Fielder duo.

 

We're looking at a fielded team of LF-Almora, CF Alcantara, RF Soler, 3b Bryant, 2b Baez making the 500k-1mil range for the next 3 years. Rizzo making 24mil total the next 4years, Castro making 22mil total the next 3 years. Do the math That on avg means 7 of the 8 position players amounting to an avg of what 13mil-21mil total to payroll? Escalating the next 3years? They could throw 25mil per season at 4 SPs and still keep payroll under 140mil (which is my guess they would work around like Milwaukee works around 100mil)

 

Now first name to add as signee via FA is Jon Lester. Then James Shields. 2016 Add David Price. The Cubs could add all three and their payroll wouldn't reach 150mil. at least until 2017 or 2018.

 

Now imagine if they found a sucker to trade Castro to this offseason for a legit looking SP prospect? Let's say to Boston for Ranaudo or Webster or heaven forbid Owens! (figuring Bogaerts gets relegated to 3b duties)

 

You're talking a Lester/Shields 1/2 with the Boston SP #3, Arrieta #5 and I'm sure there's at least 2 scrappy vet #4s they could sign(like Hammel again)

The Cubs will be real in 2015 and very real in 2016.

 

edit add: Just want to mention Lester won't cost a draft pick. And the Cubs sit pretty much 6games ahead(own tiebreakers) for a top 10 pick meaning Shields will cost a 2nd rd pick only to sign. Their pyt record sits at 51-60 9games under .500. Add those 2 SPs? Bryant vs. Olt? Cubs are an over .500 team next year.

[owbc]

So far, the Ricketts haven't shown any interest in putting a winning product on the field. They are interested in making money. I'm not convinced they will spend the big bucks on free agents or even signing their young players. Maybe their attitude will change in a few years, but for now I'm not concerned.

 

pretty much every single thing in this post is wrong. They've thrown a TON of money and resources into their farm system and scouting/development structure, which was non-existent before Theo was hired (by the Ricketts, for big money, by the way). Rizzo and Castro both signed big pre-arby contract extensions last year. They've spent the past few seasons trading away horrible contracts given out by Hendry (I think Soriano is still being paid about 18 million by the Cubs this season), so their seemingly low payroll is actually inflated with players no longer on their roster, whom the Cubs picked up salary in trades in order to get something in return.

 

The Ricketts have allowed Theo and Jed to run the baseball side, which has been a complete teardown of the MLB roster over the past 3 seasons along with a total rebuild of the organization from the ground up. It might seem like the Cubs are being cheap, but I guarantee that as this dead money falls off their books, the Cubs are going to operate like a team without payroll limitations when it comes to signing their own talented players and bringing in free agents worth signing.

 

Thanks for the info, I didn't realize they had invested so much into player development. They will clearly have some good players coming up through the system and significant resources available for making big signings. There is no doubt they will contend. That being said, the Ricketts have not yet shown whether they will sign a $200+ million contract that will propel them from division to WS contenders. They are smart not to do it now, but the fans are still flocking to Wrigley Field to see a last place team. How much incentive do they really have to take a big chunk out of their profits--especially when they are spending so much money improving Wrigley Field?

[trwi7]

Why do they need to sign somebody to a $200 million contract to compete for a World Series?

[logan82]

A lot of offense prospects with no pitching developing. Where have we heard this before?

[Dead Simmons]

What I can't understand is why they let their best two pitchers get away when the offense is starting to shape up? What am I missing?

[monty57]

A lot of offense prospects with no pitching developing. Where have we heard this before?

 

The only difference is that the Brewers don't have the revenue stream to sign front-line free agents or to extend their superstar players (except Braun who willfully signed well under value).

 

bcd80 summed it up. If they get in on guys like Scherzer, Lester, Shields this offseason, they can go from "lot of young position talent / no pitching" to "contenders for the division" as soon as next year. I'd guess Bryant is up in September, and they'll open next season with an infield of Rizzo, Baez, Castro, Bryant. These guys could all be perennial All-Stars, and two of them are already established Major Leaguers. It's likely Baez and Bryant get early extensions like Castro and Rizzo did, so we'll be seeing that lineup for a long time. It really depends on whether they want to give their young guys one more year or if they start to get pitching this offseason. I think if they decide to go for it this year, they'll probably try to get two of the guys listed above, and that could be scary.

 

Throw in that the Cardinals, Pirates and Reds are all good MLB teams with strong farms, and it really makes it important for the Brewers to hold on this year. It'll be pretty tough to win the division going forward.

[brewcrewdue80]

What I can't understand is why they let their best two pitchers get away when the offense is starting to shape up? What am I missing?

 

Who else did they let get away after Samardzija? Hammel was a rental SP that they can just sign again.

 

As for Samardzija, I don't believe in his numbers maintaining long term. I feel more or less he's barely an under 4ERA SP(or a #3 in my book) and just happens to be performing better than that. This season is his first season as a SP his ERA was under 3.8 at age 29. My guess is, as the "Ace" on the Cubs he was seeking Ace type extension. Something like 18-23mil per year. And who knows for how many years? I just don't believe he's proven himself to extend a contract that is worth any more than Garza money.

Kudos imo to Chicago for not getting caught up in a SP having a good run of games and paying him long term expecting that run to continue to be worth that money.

 

I think Lester/Shields are far better to build your rotation around moving forward vs. Samardzija. Scherzer too? I don't know though, I think Scherzer will be the prize FA that a team gives 25mil+ per(Grienke type deal)

[logan82]

By the time their offense is good enough both will be FA and the Cubs will have the money to sign them on a FA contract. If it was the Brewers their best bet would have been to sign them to an extension at a team friendly cost like they did with Sheets.

[fondybrewfan]

Is it too much to ask from them to be the Royals 2.0? KC had a ton of highly touted offensive talent in the minors and they never lived up to expectations. If everything works out and they play to their supposed ability then that offense is going to be really good; but plenty of highly touted players have flamed out before so I will believe it when I see it.

[reillymcshane]

Cubs should have an impressive offense within 2-3 years, a lot of it young and cheap. As people have pointed out, they have little pitching - and the prospects are almost all hitters. Even their best pitching prospect, CJ Edwards, may profile best as a reliever.

 

Still, the club should have money to burn. I expect them to make one major signing in the off season (Lester or Scherzer, for example). Then another after next season, when they should really have the ability to contend as their young guys mature. Add in a more mid-rotation guy, and you start looking like a contender. Jake Arrieta could be a long term solution as well, but we'll have to wait and see if he can sustain this year's success. With all their young guys, they could perhaps trade for a pitcher as well. Castro would be the perfect guy to deal for an arm.

 

I think the Cubs have done as well as could be expected, considering how crappy they were. They have some guys that look like they could be great. They'll need to overpay for some starting pitching in the next couple of years, but with all their young and inexpensive bats, that's okay.

[Boomer5]

The plan works if they can flip Russell for a 1/2 and/or they can sign most of a starting rotation in FA. Potentially good plan if you forget Theo has built 3 last place teams in a row, and they will have ferocious competition for Lester/Shields/Price/et al

 

On the other hand, these guys do have a great eye for hitting talent. Everyone they go after hard seems to be a legitimate MLB talent. The Brewers, on the other hand...............

[monty57]

Potentially good plan if you forget Theo has built 3 last place teams in a row

 

Kind of understating what Epstein has done in his career.

[Boomer5]

Potentially good plan if you forget Theo has built 3 last place teams in a row

 

Kind of understating what Epstein has done in his career.

 

Not really. He has left Boston fans questioning exactly what he specifically actually did for them, and Cubs fans aren't exactly happy with the state of the MLB roster.

 

The Cubs are indeed building some serious hitting talent, and they will try and time their development and low cost years with picking up high priced starting pitching. It can work if they are willing to go all in on a Big three and outbid teams like LA/Boston/NYY. If not, well, we have seen how that goes.

 

I do love their ability to spot electric talent, unlike the Brewers who are driving me insane. Short drive, but still.

[monty57]

Potentially good plan if you forget Theo has built 3 last place teams in a row

 

Kind of understating what Epstein has done in his career.

 

Not really. He has left Boston fans questioning exactly what he specifically actually did for them, and Cubs fans aren't exactly happy with the state of the MLB roster.

 

The Cubs are indeed building some serious hitting talent, and they will try and time their development and low cost years with picking up high priced starting pitching. It can work if they are willing to go all in on a Big three and outbid teams like LA/Boston/NYY. If not, well, we have seen how that goes.

 

I do love their ability to spot electric talent, unlike the Brewers who are driving me insane. Short drive, but still.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/

 

No World Series victories from 1918 - 2003. Three World Series victories in the past decade. In today's world where many have the attention span of a gnat, I suppose some Boston fans (in a down year after a World Series win) are indeed questioning "what he specifically actually did for them," but the quick & easy answer to that is that he put together the framework from which they could have sustainable success.

 

He turned around Boston, and then took over a Cubs franchise in a total mess. No one knows what success he will have, but it looks like they are about ready to turn the corner and become a franchise stocked with talent from top to bottom that can sustain success for the long-term.

[JohnBriggs12]

What I can't understand is why they let their best two pitchers get away when the offense is starting to shape up? What am I missing?

 

They are operating on the theory that we are now in a pitchers era, and therefore hitting talent is harder to find.

 

By the way the report on the radio in Chicago this morning was that the Cubs put in a claim on Cole Hamels. Looks like they are to the point where they are ready to spend on starting pitching. I doubt Phillies would just take the salary relief for a guy who's still earning it, but who knows, that's a ton that would be off their books.