Jimmy Rollins placed on Waivers

[DuWayne Steurer]

Segura's numbers aren't so hideous that they should do anything drastic like bring in an aging expensive SS at the end of his career. Sophomore slumps are pretty common. He's a starting caliber SS. Brewers have some potential successors in their system if it gets to that in another year or two.

 

 

He's OPS-ing under .600. That's pretty bad. He's been bad offensively for over a year now. Pitchers have figured him out and he has yet to figure out any kind of adjustment. His defense is good, not great, and certainly not good enough to make up for sub-.600 OPS offense. If he doesn't figure it out soon, the Brewers are going to be forced to figure out a solution here.

[SoupTown]

quote "had his BABIP not been around .200 for about half his PA's, his numbers would look a lot differently"

 

If you hit most of your BIP as slow hoppers to the shortstop, that is exactly what I would expect for a BABIP

 

Most sabr guys actually dont realise that a line drive and pop up and ground ball are NOT the same event... a BIP

[Funketown]

quote

 

Most sabr guys actually dont realise that a line drive and pop up and ground ball are NOT the same event... a BIP

 

People have been tinkering with an expected BABIP based on batted ball profiles for several years now...No reasonable SABR guy would ever tell you Yuni B should expect the same BABIP as Miguel Cabrera. I suspect Segura's .266 is a bit lower than it will be going forward, but his batted ball profile seems pretty poor, so despite his speed I'm not too optimistic about balls finding open space.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/simple-xbabip-calculator/

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/xbabip-spreadsheet/

[HiAndTight]

quote

 

Most sabr guys actually dont realise that a line drive and pop up and ground ball are NOT the same event... a BIP

 

People have been tinkering with an expected BABIP based on batted ball profiles for several years now...No reasonable SABR guy would ever tell you Yuni B should expect the same BABIP as Miguel Cabrera. I suspect Segura's .266 is a bit lower than it will be going forward, but his batted ball profile seems pretty poor, so despite his speed I'm not too optimistic about balls finding open space.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/simple-xbabip-calculator/

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/xbabip-spreadsheet/

 

Based on what? What makes you say that? His BABIP is down about 60 points despite hitting almost the exact same LD pct, more GB's, fewer pop up's.

 

What about his profile do you mean?

 

And those are interesting ideas that they're experimenting with, but it's really just an idea he's trying to develop right now.

[Funketown]

He's 130th out of 150 qualified players in LD%; I should have clarified that when I say it seems a bit low, I mean I'd think it would be about .290 or so going forward, but I just don't see him putting up a .330 BABIP like last year unless he starts driving the ball.

[trwi7]

Segura is also swinging 3% more on pitches outside of the strike zone while making less contact. I don't know how anyone can watch him and think he's getting unlucky based on his BABIP because his LD% and GB% are the same as last year.

[endaround]

Check out Segura's swing% heat map. He's swinging at almost everything inside and high compared to last year.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=5933&position=SS&ss=2014&se=2014&type=2&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=bat

 

Rollins would be so much better than Segura right now

[Funketown]

His plate discipline numbers are really ugly.

 

Check out his O-Swing and Z-Swing percentages. There are other guys (e.g. Sandoval, Gomez) who swing at more out of the zone, but Segura has a much lower Z-Swing than anybody above him.

 

Of course, even if Segura found his way to a .300 BABIP he'd probably be hitting more like .260/.290/.340, which is much more acceptable but still pretty ugly.

 

Back to the topic, Rollins would probably be good for a league-average clip at the plate, and most likely be a pretty sizable improvement. At ~$15MM for the end of 2014 and all of 2015, this would make sense if they were ready to give up on Segura and wait for a guy like Arcia, but as a platoon or backup I'll pass. (Also, I never noticed before but Segura has hit righties quite a bit better than lefties in his career, so given that Rollins also hits better against RHP in his career a platoon is really not a good option).

[JohnBriggs12]

They aren't giving up on Segura. He'd have to repeat his numbers from this year in 2015 for that to happen. Almost every team every year including championship teams have guys underperforming. It's the nature of the game. When that guy's 24 and a year removed from posting solid numbers, and is on a team that is second in the league in runs scored, it's not time for a panic move, which bringing in Rollins would amount too.

 

Post All Star break, Segura's hitting .261/.282/.362. Rollins is hitting .222/.267/.394.

[jerichoholicninja]

They aren't giving up on Segura. He'd have to repeat his numbers from this year in 2015 for that to happen. Almost every team every year including championship teams have guys underperforming. It's the nature of the game. When that guy's 24 and a year removed from posting solid numbers, and is on a team that is second in the league in runs scored, it's not time for a panic move, which bringing in Rollins would amount too.

 

So Segura is your new Yuni huh? Doesn't matter how bad a player is doing as long as the team wins it doesn't matter right?

[JohnBriggs12]

They aren't giving up on Segura. He'd have to repeat his numbers from this year in 2015 for that to happen. Almost every team every year including championship teams have guys underperforming. It's the nature of the game. When that guy's 24 and a year removed from posting solid numbers, and is on a team that is second in the league in runs scored, it's not time for a panic move, which bringing in Rollins would amount too.

 

So Segura is your new Yuni huh? Doesn't matter how bad a player is doing as long as the team wins it doesn't matter right?

 

Ok, should the Royals have dumped Escobar after he hit just .234/.259/.300 last year? He's now hitting .278/.313/.371.

 

Having a bad stretch doesn't make you a bad player. Yuni hit well in the 2nd half of 2011. Had they dumped him in June, they would have been hard pressed to get something better offensively.

 

This situation is completely different. Segura's still a young player with tremendous upside. Rollins is done.

[monty57]

At the plate, Segura had two good months, and has had over a year straight of very poor performance. He is still young, so anyone calling for him to be "dumped" is probably overreacting, but if we had another option it would be nice if he could be sent to AAA to straighten things out. We don't have another option, and I don't think acquiring Rollins is the road we should take, so we're just going to have to hope that Segura can turn things around at the MLB level.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

If the O's don't resign him (i think they have someone younger they might go with), I'd be interested in bringing back Hardy... maybe as a utility IF (play 3B, SS, 2B), who could settle into his old starting SS role if Segura doesn't pick it up next year.

 

Not huge money, but maybe a $2/10 type deal

[Roderick]

If the O's don't resign him (i think they have someone younger they might go with), I'd be interested in bringing back Hardy... maybe as a utility IF (play 3B, SS, 2B), who could settle into his old starting SS role if Segura doesn't pick it up next year.

 

Not huge money, but maybe a $2/10 type deal

 

I doubt Hardy would even have a meeting with Melvin. $10M seems steep for a planned utility guy and a just in case insurance policy. And would Hardy be someone that is good in the clubhouse in a bench role?

[pacopete4]

Hardy isn't coming near Milwaukee.

[logan82]

Hardy isn't coming near Milwaukee.

and I wouldn't blame him.

[endaround]

Hardy should get a 3 year deal worth about $45 million with a 4th year option. If he is coming to Milwaukee (highly unlikely) it would be to replace Segura.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Hardy should get a 3 year deal worth about $45 million with a 4th year option. If he is coming to Milwaukee (highly unlikely) it would be to replace Segura.

 

Zero chance Hardy approaches those numbers IMO

[trwi7]

Hardy should get a 3 year deal worth about $45 million with a 4th year option. If he is coming to Milwaukee (highly unlikely) it would be to replace Segura.

 

Zero chance Hardy approaches those numbers IMO

 

3/45 is much closer than the 2/10 that was suggested earlier.

[JohnBriggs12]

Alexei Ramirez could be had in a deal this winter as they have a nice prospect Carlos Sanchez who took huge strides at AAA this season, and need pitching badly. I'm not ready to give up on Segura, but if they go that route, Ramirez could be a nice bridge to Arcia.

[Mr Southpaw]

Segura is cheep and Arcia is two years away. I would worry more about 1B.

[monty57]

Segura is cheep and Arcia is two years away. I would worry more about 1B.

 

Agreed. This offseason's moves are going to be determined by what happens with Ramirez and Rodriguez. Melvin is at least going to have to address the 1B situation and possibly add a RH reliever. He may also have to address 3B and closer. Upgrading shortstop should be well down his list. I'd either have to be blown away in a deal for a SS or believe that there is absolutely no way to improve anywhere else before I'd set my sights on finding a replacement for Segura.

 

The team could be improved by adding a top SS and making Segura the utility guy/RH part of 2B platoon, but relatively speaking, that improvement would be dwarfed by finding a good first baseman.