Brewers acquire OF Gerardo Parra from Arizona; prospects Mitch Haniger and Anthony Banda to D-backs

[sveumrules]

Ryan Braun was a historically bad third baseman. I've seen posts on this forum over the years saying his throwing was the main culprit which would not be a problem at first base. The numbers simply do not bear this out.

 

His UZR was -28.5 in less than a full season, -42.8 extrapolated to 150 games. Of that, -20.1 was attributed to his poor range and -8.4 was attributed to his arm.

 

There were 225 balls hit in his defined zone, 127 of which he turned into outs for a conversion rate of .564. For comparison the league average conversion rate for all 3B in 2007 was .680 with the next worst offender among qualifiers being Edwin Encarnacion at .600.

 

By both the eye test and the numbers Braun is a serviceable corner outfielder. Moving him back to the infield where a significant portion of his offensive value would be negated by his horrendous defense is something I'd rather not see.

[SRB]

Braun's inability to play 3B in 2007 has basically zero correlation to his ability to play 1B in 2014/2015. I understand that a random guy off the street can't just step in and play 1B, but I feel like some are going to the other extreme and acting like 1B is incredibly difficult. It's the easiest position in baseball and there's a reason so many aging players from the history of baseball ended up there.

 

If you are a plus athlete and not a midget (Braun meets both criteria), you will be a competent 1B.

[SRB]

Ryan Braun was a historically bad third baseman. I've seen posts on this forum over the years saying his throwing was the main culprit which would not be a problem at first base. The numbers simply do not bear this out.

 

His UZR was -28.5 in less than a full season, -42.8 extrapolated to 150 games. Of that, -20.1 was attributed to his poor range and -8.4 was attributed to his arm.

 

There were 225 balls hit in his defined zone, 127 of which he turned into outs for a conversion rate of .564. For comparison the league average conversion rate for all 3B in 2007 was .680 with the next worst offender among qualifiers being Edwin Encarnacion at .600.

 

By both the eye test and the numbers Braun is a serviceable corner outfielder. Moving him back to the infield where a significant portion of his offensive value would be negated by his horrendous defense is something I'd rather not see.

 

Use Prince Fielder as an example: Prince was a bad but not catastrophic defender at 1B. What do you suppose his defensive metrics would have been if he was playing 3B? I'm willing to bet far worse than even Braun. The positions are not equivalent and one is simply much easier than the other.

[3and2Fastball]

Braun problems were mostly throwing, not fielding the ball. He made several great diving stops only to throw the ball 6 rows into the stands. He would be fine at 1B

[sveumrules]

Third base and first base both require quick, instinctual reaction times as they are the two closest positions to home plate, besides the pitcher of course. I don't think that after getting 7 years older and playing the outfield for that entire time that Braun's reactions/instincts will have improved at all.

 

Sure, lots of aging players have ended up there but how was their defense? If Braun needs to move to first at some point because his outfield defense is slipping or we acquire another plus corner outfielder, that's fine. I just don't believe we've reached that point yet because his OF defense is fine and Gerardo Parra is not a plus corner outfielder.

[sveumrules]

Braun problems were mostly throwing, not fielding the ball. He made several great diving stops only to throw the ball 6 rows into the stands. He would be fine at 1B

 

The objective data I posted above doesn't necessarily agree with your subjective recollection.

[3and2Fastball]

Braun problems were mostly throwing, not fielding the ball. He made several great diving stops only to throw the ball 6 rows into the stands. He would be fine at 1B

 

The objective data I posted above doesn't necessarily agree with your subjective recollection.

 

Thanks. I missed your post the first time, and stand corrected. I appreciate your contributions here

[sveumrules]

Use Prince Fielder as an example: Prince was a bad but not catastrophic defender at 1B. What do you suppose his defensive metrics would have been if he was playing 3B? I'm willing to bet far worse than even Braun. The positions are not equivalent and one is simply much easier than the other.

 

Prince Fielder is the worst defensive first baseman I've ever observed. If he can't be considered catastrophic I don't know who can. Adam Dunn maybe?

 

I agree that 1B is clearly easier than 3B, but why move Braun from a more difficult position where he is an average defender to an easier one where he will, in all likelihood, be below average?

[DuWayne Steurer]

If Parra were an .800 OPS type guy, I could see having this discussion. He's not, he never has been, and I can't for the life of me believe he ever will be.

 

As others have said, Braun is a serviceable outfielder, with a plus arm, and we'd be moving him to a place (infield) where we know he's really really bad, and his one plus attribute (his arm) would serve almost no purpose. To make room for a .720 OPS corner outfielder who's had a DWAR higher than 1.0 once in his career. I just don't see the need for this kind of shuffling.

[DoubleSwitch]

Braun shouldn't move to first unless he can no longer handle the outfield physically, same with ARam. It's much easier to sign an average hitting first baseman than an average hitting outfielder, and they are much cheaper to trade for. It makes no sense to move a guy down the defensive spectrum unless he significantly below average defense, that's throwing value away for no reason. There is probably a better than 50% chance that Parra is non-tendered this off-season so I don't even see how he factors into the discussion.

[SRB]

The rationale behind moving Braun is not that Braun is horrendous in RF or that Gerardo Parra is an MVP caliber player, it's that we have a gaping black hole at 1B and a serviceable everyday LF/RF sitting on the bench. Unless you want another year of Lyle Overbay.

[DoubleSwitch]

The potential pool of free agent first basemen looks a lot better this offseason than last. Not to mention Reynolds hasn't exactly been a disaster. He's a good example of the fact that league average bats who can play solid first base are available for nothing even in a bad year for free agent first basemen.

[SRB]

The potential pool of free agent first basemen looks a lot better this offseason than last. Not to mention Reynolds hasn't exactly been a disaster. He's a good example of the fact that league average bats who can play solid first base are available for nothing even in a bad year for free agent first basemen.

 

It looks pretty atrocious to me:

 

Yuniesky Betancourt (33)

Billy Butler (29) – $12.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Michael Cuddyer (36)

Corey Hart (33)

Adam LaRoche (35) – $15MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout

Adam Lind (31) – $7.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Mike Morse (33)

Carlos Pena (37)

Ty Wigginton (37)

Kevin Youkilis (36)

 

Assuming LaRoche stays with the Nationals, it's pretty much Cuddyer or bust. Maybe Morse if he costs nothing.

 

Reynolds has exceeded expectations in 2014, but he's still splitting time with Overbay (horrendous), and he has a .317 wOBA this year. Parra has a career .313 wOBA and a track record of amazing defense.

[Boomer5]

There's no first basemen available to reasonably upgrade the offense. Since Parra isn't an offensive upgrade over Reynolds, the move of Braun to 1B has low reward.

[SoupTown]

"It's much easier to sign an average hitting first baseman than an average hitting outfielder, and they are much cheaper to trade for."

 

That should be true. But it seems not to be true. Unless you consider Reynolds as the example.

 

With a corner outfielder, there are MORE of them. So, it seems that would be a good target... ala Parra. Hey, Parra has be so good for us, hey! Is he simply the best fourth outfielder in the game? I am still of the opinion that Braun at first and Parra in right makes a better team. And you still keep Reynolds next year - backup first, third, right field. At least it keeps you from being desperate in free agency and trade.

[logan82]

The free agent 3B look better than the FA 1B. Either would work.

[adambr2]

Ryan Braun was a historically bad third baseman. I've seen posts on this forum over the years saying his throwing was the main culprit which would not be a problem at first base. The numbers simply do not bear this out.

 

His UZR was -28.5 in less than a full season, -42.8 extrapolated to 150 games. Of that, -20.1 was attributed to his poor range and -8.4 was attributed to his arm.

 

There were 225 balls hit in his defined zone, 127 of which he turned into outs for a conversion rate of .564. For comparison the league average conversion rate for all 3B in 2007 was .680 with the next worst offender among qualifiers being Edwin Encarnacion at .600.

 

By both the eye test and the numbers Braun is a serviceable corner outfielder. Moving him back to the infield where a significant portion of his offensive value would be negated by his horrendous defense is something I'd rather not see.

 

Use Prince Fielder as an example: Prince was a bad but not catastrophic defender at 1B. What do you suppose his defensive metrics would have been if he was playing 3B? I'm willing to bet far worse than even Braun. The positions are not equivalent and one is simply much easier than the other.

 

Prince Fielder was the worst defensive first baseman in MLB in 2013, 2010, and 2006, the 3rd worst in 2012, the 2nd worst in 2011, 2008, and 2007, the 8th worst in 2009. Surely this would qualify him as "catastrophic".

[JohnBriggs12]

The potential pool of free agent first basemen looks a lot better this offseason than last. Not to mention Reynolds hasn't exactly been a disaster. He's a good example of the fact that league average bats who can play solid first base are available for nothing even in a bad year for free agent first basemen.

 

It was better last year but the Brewers pursued the wrong guys. They should have been all over Morneau who was going to be another year removed from his concussion and Mike Morse who rakes in Miller Park. You are right about Reynolds but I'd still prefer Morse.

[Outlander]

The recent thread on the Sabathia and Greinke trades got me thinking of this trade and what people will think of it down the road. I am starting to fear that the Brewers and fans will regret giving up Anthony Banda in the trade. In three starts thus far he is 2-0 with 22 strikeouts in 17.1 innings of work.

[SRB]

Prince Fielder was the worst defensive first baseman in MLB in 2013, 2010, and 2006, the 3rd worst in 2012, the 2nd worst in 2011, 2008, and 2007, the 8th worst in 2009. Surely this would qualify him as "catastrophic".

 

Not really. He only had one season (2006) with an UZR/150 below -10.0, and his career UZR/150 is only -5.5, which is bad but not abnormally bad. In contrast, Adam Dunn has had a season with a -28.3 UZR/150 at 1B, and a truly catastrophic defender is someone like Brad Hawpe: career -19.0 UZR/150 in the OF, one full season with a -44.7 UZR/150. To the extent Prince led MLB in negative defensive WAR, it's probably because he consistently played more innings than anybody else.

 

Prince Fielder's career UZR/150 at 1B was better than Ryan Braun's UZR/150 in RF and roughly equivalent to Braun's career UZR/150 in the OF.

[TURBO]

The recent thread on the Sabathia and Greinke trades got me thinking of this trade and what people will think of it down the road. I am starting to fear that the Brewers and fans will regret giving up Anthony Banda in the trade. In three starts thus far he is 2-0 with 22 strikeouts in 17.1 innings of work.

 

100% agree. While most were mourning Haniger, (I was too) the real pain I felt was in losing Banda. I've watched him steadily improve over the season in Wisconsin, and the last time I saw him pitch, he was fantastic.

[logan82]

At 3B Ryan Braun had a -28.5 UZR in a partial season. -42.8 UZR/150. His range part was -20.1 UZR. He was actually better at throwing the ball than fielding it and he wasn't very good at fielding. If he had fielded the ball at an average rate he would still have had a -12.6 UZR/150. Braun wasn't just horrendous, he was historically horrendous.

[SRB]

I am honestly baffled that so many don't think Ryan Braun could play competent defense at 1B, but whatever it's probably a moot point because I doubt he moves anytime soon.

[monty57]

I am honestly baffled that so many don't think Ryan Braun could play competent defense at 1B, but whatever it's probably a moot point because I doubt he moves anytime soon.

 

It's possible he'd be okay, but the chance that he's really bad is big enough that it seems to make more sense just to let him play OF, where we know he plays passable defense.

[logan82]

I am honestly baffled that so many don't think Ryan Braun could play competent defense at 1B, but whatever it's probably a moot point because I doubt he moves anytime soon.

We have explained in detail why. He looked bad the stats were bad, not just the throwing. You may disagree but I don't see how it can be baffling.