Brewers scouting Red Sox [Latest -- Lester traded to OAK]

[Austin Tatious]

I would have a hard time giving up Nelson for just two months of Lester. I can't see that at all.

 

One of the lower levels guys, like Jorge Lopez? Lopez and Haniger? That's two top 10 prospects. Lopez has a high ceiling.

[chadomac]

Napoli sounds like a great idea. I'd be in for Lester too if it was anyone but Nelson going over to Boston.

[TooLiveBrew]

Napoli sounds like a great idea. I'd be in for Lester too if it was anyone but Nelson going over to Boston.

Napoli for me is the guy they should be targeting. If you can get both, then I guess good (but that depends on the cost, of course).

[Bombers]

Trading Jimmy Nelson is just idiotic in my opinion. Come playoff time you only need 3.5 starters. I say .5 because, sure your 4th starter will get 1 start in a 7 game series. 1. So lets trade 6 years of Jimmy Nelson for a guy who may not be better than our top 3 anyhow?

[fondybrewfan]

I would propose Napoli and Lester for Lopez, Haniger, Thornburg and one of Coulter/Arcia/Taylor

 

Significantly improves this years team while not completing gutting the system either

[JohnBriggs12]

It's hard to trade Thornburg while he's on the DL. No way would I deal Nelson for Lester.

 

How about Gallardo and a prospect for Lester? Boston would be getting a proven major league starter they can project in their 2015 rotation and they'd still have the option of bringing back Lester.

[torts]

It's hard to trade Thornburg while he's on the DL. No way would I deal Nelson for Lester.

 

How about Gallardo and a prospect for Lester? Boston would be getting a proven major league starter they can project in their 2015 rotation and they'd still have the option of bringing back Lester.

 

 

that will never happen in a million years. first, trading a top 3 SP for another top 3 SP doesnt happen. second, trading a player with an option like Gallardo for a player hitting FA makes no sense. third, adding a prospect on top of gallardo to get 2 months of Lester makes even less sense. your proposal is a fleecing of the Brewers with the mention of them also getting Lester back next year.

[Bnowell4evr]

It's hard to trade Thornburg while he's on the DL. No way would I deal Nelson for Lester.

 

How about Gallardo and a prospect for Lester? Boston would be getting a proven major league starter they can project in their 2015 rotation and they'd still have the option of bringing back Lester.

 

You can get around by having the trade include a "ptbnl"

[JohnBriggs12]

It's hard to trade Thornburg while he's on the DL. No way would I deal Nelson for Lester.

 

How about Gallardo and a prospect for Lester? Boston would be getting a proven major league starter they can project in their 2015 rotation and they'd still have the option of bringing back Lester.

 

 

that will never happen in a million years. first, trading a top 3 SP for another top 3 SP doesnt happen. second, trading a player with an option like Gallardo for a player hitting FA makes no sense. third, adding a prospect on top of gallardo to get 2 months of Lester makes even less sense. your proposal is a fleecing of the Brewers with the mention of them also getting Lester back next year.

 

Okay...Gallardo for Lester straight up. I believe Nelson's fully capable of matching the innings Gallardo would give them the rest of this year and that torts is the key. Gallardo's a 3 or a 4 on a good team. Nelson is capable of provided that type of production now. Lester is a clear number one. Boston is a team that retools. It doesn't rebuild. They'd look at Gallardo as 2015's version of Jake Peavy, only younger and more likely better.

 

Yes the Brewers would lose Gallardo for 2015, but they'd also save the $13 million that could and probably would be spent elsewhere (1B or pitching?). They also have starters in the wings in Thornburg and Will Smith with good stuff.

 

Lester would give the Brewers that ace down the stretch and into the postseason. Gallardo's 3 or 4 spot in next year's rotation can be filled. There's no easy way to find an ace for this year's team.

[Oldcity]

Put yourself in Boston's shoes. If you were trading a blue chip like Jon Lester, would you want a declining Yovani Gallardo (who only has one more year of control himself) back for Lester, or would you want a highly rated prospect?

 

Gallardo is not what teams will be looking for.

[Bnowell4evr]

I wonder if the Brewers might look to make the Red Sox a one stop shop for acquiring all their needs at the deadline? We all agree that Jimmy Nelson for a half year of John Lester is preposterous but what if we also received Koji Uehara and Mike Carp in the deal or Lester + Napoli? I'm thinking back to 2011 and the Cardinals trade of Rasmus for Jackson, Rzepzinski and Dotel and I'm hoping we can do something similar.

[brewcrewdue80]

No way can Lester be worth Nelson. None. It makes zero sense to have left Nelson in your minors to keep him from reaching Super 2 status if in the back of your mind you were willing to trade him for a 2month+Postseason rental! None! Seriously, what are they thinking if they go through with this? You should have started Nelson then back near the end of May when Estrada's true capability was showing. At least then you would have seen if Nelson was expendable and/or giving Estrada a Bullpen spot that by this time in the season he could have shown value being one(like Wade Davis)

 

Trading for Price losing Nelson, you at least have him for Next season where you can trade him in the offseason/during next season and/or getting your draft pick compensation when he declines a QO. Lester offers none of that. So I want none of him for Nelson.

[BallFour]

Also my thinking is why bring up Nelson to the bigs if you really were planning on trade him. I would have just let him dominate AAA hitters and not reveal if he could get MLB hitters out or not.

[monty57]

Gallardo for Lester is not going to happen, but I'd rather trade him for Lester then Nelson. If the Brewers trade Nelson for a couple months of Lester I might stop watching them. I could somewhat understand it for Price, who is under control for another season, but not for a few month rental.

 

I don't know how we match up if we were looking to trade for Lester. For comparison purposes, when we traded away a few month of Greinke, we received Segura (around Nelson's level as a prospect), Pena and Hellweg. Without Nelson in the deal, I don't know if Boston would do it, but if so you're probably looking at something like Thornburg, Taylor, Coulter/Arcia. Heck, after the Cubs got Russell for Jeff S., the Red Sox are probably looking for the equivalent of a top 10 guy for Lester, which means that even if we included Nelson, we'd probably have to include a couple other good prospects.

 

I guess the fact of the matter is that if you want to make a big splash, what you have to give up to make that splash could be painful. I'd personally rather hunt for a decent 1B than an ace starter... our SP has been fine, but our first basemen stink.

[torts]

Super 2 status matters to other franchises as much as it does to ours, which also increases Nelson value on the trade market. so to say "if he was gunna be traded, shoulda started him in May" actually potentially drives down Nelsons value as now whatever team would acquire him would have a player who has that extra year of arbitration cost associated with them, driving up that players long-term costs.

[brewcrewdue80]

Gallardo for Lester is not going to happen, but I'd rather trade him for Lester then Nelson. If the Brewers trade Nelson for a couple months of Lester I might stop watching them. I could somewhat understand it for Price, who is under control for another season, but not for a few month rental.

 

I don't know how we match up if we were looking to trade for Lester. For comparison purposes, when we traded away a few month of Greinke, we received Segura (around Nelson's level as a prospect), Pena and Hellweg. Without Nelson in the deal, I don't know if Boston would do it, but if so you're probably looking at something like Thornburg, Taylor, Coulter/Arcia. Heck, after the Cubs got Russell for Jeff S., the Red Sox are probably looking for the equivalent of a top 10 guy for Lester, which means that even if we included Nelson, we'd probably have to include a couple other good prospects.

 

I guess the fact of the matter is that if you want to make a big splash, what you have to give up to make that splash could be painful. I'd personally rather hunt for a decent 1B than an ace starter... our SP has been fine, but our first basemen stink.

 

The problem to me is comparing Grienke's trade value vs. Lester's is that the Angels really had poor pitching and absolutely needed an upgrade. The Brewers aren't in that shape they were. Yeah Segura is/was about Nelson's value and then Pena/Hellweg were throwins. But Segura is/was a huge acquisition to fill a major need. And meanwhile the Angels had 2 other SS/2b locked in longterm that even today, Segura likely is having a hard time to find ABs.

 

Nelson is ML ready. He's not a Prospect imo anymore. Segura was a AA player at the time. Hellweg/Pena were as well. Nelson also isn't blocked to be the team's #5 SP. Now, trading away someone like Taylor okay. We have Gomez through 2016 and Monte Harrison is off to a great Start. Taylor may not have a long term fixture for this team due to that. Taylor just doesn't come with that top 100 prospect ranking. But if we are going to trade for Lester he's where they should start.

Samardzija has team control value like Price so that to me adds value over Lester. You can get compensation for those guys upon leaving or at least trade them away in the future before they leave via FA.

 

If you somehow acquire Lester and keep Nelson...How fantastic would that be because surely Nelson moves to the bullpen and then it's like finding our Flamethrowing RH RP while adding an Ace to the Playoff Rotation. But Dunno how we'd pull that off minus tossing Arcia/Taylor/Coulter and maybe even Jungmann?

[JohnBriggs12]

Nelson is just too valuable to give up for a rental, even a guy that increases the odds of winning in the postseason. That has buyer's regret all over it. Sabathia at least had draft pick compensation tied to him and the pitchers the Brewers gave up in the deal were throw ins. The big guy in the deal was LaPorta who was stuck behind Fielder. With the price of pitching what it is, the Brewers just cannot afford to give up talent like Nelson just as he's emerging as a big league pitcher.

 

My Gallardo suggestion was thinking out of the box admittedly but since the Brewers don't have a top positional prospect at AAA who's currently blocked ala LaPorta in 2008, how are you going to attract Lester? The guys at Brevard are good, but not sure they are centerpiece material at this point. Jungmann isn't either nor are other pitching prospects in the system outside of Nelson. Thornburg might be if he were healthy but he's not. I know Boston says it wants "prospects" but historically Boston's been a team that retools every year. Gallardo would be fit in their rotation next year, a rotation that needs major re-hauling.

[monty57]

The problem to me is comparing Grienke's trade value vs. Lester's is that the Angels really had poor pitching and absolutely needed an upgrade. The Brewers aren't in that shape they were. Yeah Segura is/was about Nelson's value and then Pena/Hellweg were throwins. But Segura is/was a huge acquisition to fill a major need. And meanwhile the Angels had 2 other SS/2b locked in longterm that even today, Segura likely is having a hard time to find ABs.

 

Nelson is ML ready. He's not a Prospect imo anymore. Segura was a AA player at the time. Hellweg/Pena were as well. Nelson also isn't blocked to be the team's #5 SP.

 

You're just looking at it from the Brewer standpoint, as there are other teams that feel they "absolutely need" a pitching upgrade. Melvin was able to get the return he got because both Texas and the Angels were interested and he played them against each other. The Red Sox can deal with any team that may want Lester, so the Brewers will have to beat everyone else's offer. If the Brewers don't include Nelson, the Red Sox just pick up the next call from the next team. It's pretty unlikely they'd settle for an offer based around Taylor... he's not that highly rated, and even though people like to rip prospect ratings, they're pretty important when making deadline deals for prospects.

 

Also, Segura had just been called up to the Angels when he was traded. The Brewers sent him back to AA after the trade and promptly called him back up to stay a few days later. Yes, the Angels had other middle infield options, which is a nice "problem" to have. We unfortunately don't have a list of good prospects, so we can't just drop down to trade who we want. If we're looking to trade for a star player, the other team will basically demand Nelson and/or someone from our MLB roster. After Nelson, we have guys who probably have similar value to Hellweg and Pena.

[TooLiveBrew]

You're just looking at it from the Brewer standpoint, as there are other teams that feel they "absolutely need" a pitching upgrade. Melvin was able to get the return he got because both Texas and the Angels were interested and he played them against each other. The Red Sox can deal with any team that may want Lester, so the Brewers will have to beat everyone else's offer. If the Brewers don't include Nelson, the Red Sox just pick up the next call from the next team. It's pretty unlikely they'd settle for an offer based around Taylor... he's not that highly rated, and even though people like to rip prospect ratings, they're pretty important when making deadline deals for prospects.

Semantics, I know, but I think it's relevant...

 

It's not that prospect rankings are important (or even necessarily considered by MLB front offices), but typically speaking the people who put together prospect rankings will be looking for the same qualities that MLB scouts are. So I'd say it's because a prospect would be highly valued from a talent evaluation standpoint that would lead to him getting a good ranking from a BA/BP/Sickels/etc., & not really the other way around.

 

Now, back to your regularly scheduled thread.

[brewcrewdue80]

To me Nelson is far more valuable than Segura because he's a 6'6" Workhorse/innings eating build SP. Segura's projection line reads like many SS outthere. Somehow he exceeded that line the first 2months last season but since is showing that projection line was pretty much dead on.

I know the Red Sox are capable to just talk elsewhere with better offers and so let them. I don't think any other teams connected to Lester can offer a ML SP the quality of Nelson. Only ones out there would be Walker(who is having issues) and Heaney of the Marlins who don't make sense to go after Lester as they aren't really a playoff contender this year imo..give it another year with Fernandez back.

 

Now if a team offers an exceptional Position prospect the Brewers can't match, so be it. Looking at the big picture Nelson has a ton of value right now, especially when you look at the team's offensive standing today, next year, and the future. 1b is a problem today. 3b will be a problem next year likely. CF the year after that. Nevermind the fact that Lohse/Gallardo exit after next season leaving Peralta/Garza as your SPs. Nelson is huge loss for a short term rental to this franchise. Especially when based on the standing 7teams are within 2.5games #1-7 in the NL with only 5 getting Playoff spots. Factor in 2 are automatic given to West/East The Brewers are 1 of 5 teams vying for the final 3 spots. 40% aren't going to make it. We're a little better than a coin flip right now to make the Playoffs. How do you give up a strength of the team to improve on it for 11/12 starts?...Maybe and give away 180 future starts doing so with just a coin flip's chance of even having that player make the playoffs?

The team needs to stand pat, not panic and sell away the future to (maybe)improve on only a 60% chance of Postseason.

 

22 games thus far this month 82 runs scored. Take off the two 11/9 run games it's 60 runs in 20games. Meanwhile 92 runs given up total on the month in 22 games. We're 8-14 and it's not SP that is behind that record.

[superfly]

To me Nelson is far more valuable than Segura because he's a 6'6" Workhorse/innings eating build SP.

 

There's nothing I hate more as far as descriptions of players go than to classify a starting pitcher as an "innings eater." What that phrase truly means is the guy doesn't have what it takes to be a great pitcher, hes "just a guy" you can throw out there and eat some innings and hope he doesn't get you shellacked.

 

If Nelson is an innings eater, trade him. IMO

[torts]

trade them estrada

[StearnsFTW]

To me Nelson is far more valuable than Segura because he's a 6'6" Workhorse/innings eating build SP.

 

There's nothing I hate more as far as descriptions of players go than to classify a starting pitcher as an "innings eater." What that phrase truly means is the guy doesn't have what it takes to be a great pitcher, hes "just a guy" you can throw out there and eat some innings and hope he doesn't get you shellacked.

 

If Nelson is an innings eater, trade him. IMO

 

He said "innings eater build". Pretty big difference.

 

I don't think Nelson is nearly the prospect that a lot of people here do. I think his ceiling is that of a #3 pitcher, with a #4 type more likely. His command isn't very good and he's 25. Obviously that can improve, and here's hoping it does.

 

Even as a #3/#4 he's still valuable.

[DoubleSwitch]

I think there's a pretty good chance Nelson will never be as valuable a commodity as he is right now. Depending on his changeup and his ability to keep his BB/9 around or under 3 he's either a solid starter or a reliever. I don't think he's the sure thing slam dunk a lot of people here do, flamethrowers with control problems and a questionable third pitch are the type of prospect that's always getting overrated. People always rip on melvin for not selling high on guys. This might be a good chance to do so.

[narwhalattack]

Lester's been scratched from his next start and Workman is pitching in his place. Seems like Lester's gonna get dealt soon... but to whom?

 

And the baseball world holds its breath...