Grantland: Analysis of NL Central Race

[MoreTrife]

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nl-central-race-brewers-cardinals-reds-pirates/

 

Of course Cards are the most feared due to the ability to make a big trade. I see no one to fear in their lineup, yet it's true - they always get it done.

[SRB]

David Price just replaces the injured Michael Wacha (2.79 ERA, 3.05 FIP before his injury). I don't see how it dramatically improves the team they were in the first half.

 

The Brewers are much easier to improve because they've been filling positions with improvable players all season (like 1B and 5th SP), so any addition is truly an improvement and not just a replacement.

[TheCrew07]

David Price just replaces the injured Michael Wacha (2.79 ERA, 3.05 FIP before his injury). I don't see how it dramatically improves the team they were in the first half.

 

The Brewers are much easier to improve because they've been filling positions with improvable players all season (like 1B and 5th SP), so any addition is truly an improvement and not just a replacement.

 

Right because everyone in the NL would be looking forward to Price, Wainwright, and Wacha in the post season... I know I'd feel great about those match-ups from a Brewer perspective...

[AdvantageSchneider]

Is Price going to be dealt? Rays are only 4.5 games out of the wild card.

[AZBrewCrew]

I dont feel the Rays will dump Price before the deadline. Like the previous poster said, they really arent that out of it yet. Besides, one pitcher still doesnt replace Molina

[SRB]

David Price just replaces the injured Michael Wacha (2.79 ERA, 3.05 FIP before his injury). I don't see how it dramatically improves the team they were in the first half.

 

The Brewers are much easier to improve because they've been filling positions with improvable players all season (like 1B and 5th SP), so any addition is truly an improvement and not just a replacement.

 

Right because everyone in the NL would be looking forward to Price, Wainwright, and Wacha in the post season... I know I'd feel great about those match-ups from a Brewer perspective...

 

Are we talking about the postseason or the NL Central race? Obviously adding Price improves them if/when Wacha returns at the very end of the regular season.

[homer]

Is Price going to be dealt? Rays are only 4.5 games out of the wild card.

 

 

I think they've gone 25 - 11 last 36 games. It will be interesting to see what they do.

[JohnBriggs12]

Is Price going to be dealt? Rays are only 4.5 games out of the wild card.

 

 

I think they've gone 25 - 11 last 36 games. It will be interesting to see what they do.

 

 

ESPN reported on Monday that the Rays considered themselves back in it not just in the wild card but in the AL East and they've won every game since. They've got guys who've been part of playoff teams on that roster. Unless they tank in the next week, they'll hold on to their guys. Price can be traded in the offseason.

 

The guys picking the Cardinals to win now are the same guys that picked the Brewers to finish 4th before the season. I put little stock in their analysis. If the Brewer rotation pitches to their capabilities, and the bullpen gets settled, the Brewers are right there.

[igor67]

One thing for sure is that suddenly the As grab of Smarwhatever looks even better with Price off the market. One thing worth noting about all of those sabermetric analysis pieces is that even this deep into the year their projections are almost entirely based on the preseason predicted talent levels. As the Rays bouncing back shows, some of that is justified, but both in terms of production and especially injuries on the ground the Brewers are more than a .500 team that PECOTA claims and the Cards are not a .540 team over the rest of the season.

As a result the dip last week to less than a 50% chance of making the playoffs was kind of silly. They aren't an 80-90% near lock either, but 60-70% to make the playoffs right now seems fair given the number of teams close enough to luck into a really hot month.

[Warning Track Power]

Right because everyone in the NL would be looking forward to Price, Wainwright, and Wacha in the post season... I know I'd feel great about those match-ups from a Brewer perspective...

I don't feel good about any Game 1 pitching matchup against most of the potential opponents in the postseason (Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals, Reds). Lohse vs Kershaw, Bumgarner, Wainwright, Cueto likely means a 0-1 deficit after Game 1. I would feel much more excited about facing the Braves, Nationals or Pirates as I think we match up ok against Santana, Strasburg and Liriano.

[owbc]

I don't feel good about any Game 1 pitching matchup against most of the potential opponents in the postseason (Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals, Reds). Lohse vs Kershaw, Bumgarner, Wainwright, Cueto likely means a 0-1 deficit after Game 1. I would feel much more excited about facing the Braves, Nationals or Pirates as I think we match up ok against Santana, Strasburg and Liriano.

 

The Brewers will be ok in a 5 or 7 game series, but that Wild Card game is terrifying. There is a huge advantage to winning the division--and even more so for getting the best record in the league. The WC game winner burns through a starting pitcher--so if the Brewers end up with the best record in the NL, they could put Lohse up against a #2 starter in game 1.

[fondybrewfan]

LAD is the obvious team that really scares you from a 1/2 perspective. BUT if you get them at home it might be entirely different. I don't think we would be overmatched in a 5 or 7 game series against most of the NL; but against the Dodgers you probably need to win two games against Kershaw and Grienke in a 7 game series. That will be pretty tough; just hope you have home field advantage in that series.

[JohnBriggs12]

Dodgers have weaknesses. Their offense has underachieved, with only two guys in the lineup with OPS over .800. They are getting very little from the catcher position.

 

Giants are more well rounded, and could very well win that division. Ideally St. Louis and Dodgers meet in WC game with one knocking out the other. Pittsburgh could even sneak in there and knock the Cards out completely.

[brewcrewdue80]

Not sure where to post this, but how do the Brewers come back from the AS Break with 13 straight games...Meanwhile the Cards will have 3 days off in between series, before Milwaukee gets their first day off! Today was their 2nd off day since the break? Only positive is Milw's off day is before the Cards series while StL has to fly home from SD the night before.(of course Wainwright pitching that day makes things likely far easier to transition) Just seems very friendly to me. Wainwright gets to pitch 3 turns in a 9game span for StL due to the off days-July22/27/Aug1 vs. Milw. Which will be day after trade deadline. So say they nab Price, this "Injury bug" they have with the SP currently, isn't really being exposed since they are skipping turns in their rotation just in time to pick up someone via Trade if needed. Yep, they aren't using their #5 SP until Maybe the Aug 2nd game vs. Milw. Nelson will be on turn #3 on that same day. And again, Wouldn't be surprised if StL Nabbed a SP before the Trade Deadline who just may take that day's game, giving them the ability to avoid using a #5 SP the entire 2nd half(since that acquired SP would be better than a #5 typically) Who came up with this schedule?

[TigerUppercut]

As others have said, just get yourself in the playoffs and see what happens. Personally, I'll be happy to take my chances. We really don't know what will happen, injury wise, from here on out. Remember in 2008 where we thought we'd be golden with a 1/2 of CC/Sheets? You never know.

[SRB]

This is probably more relevant for 2015 and beyond, but allegedly one of the early frontrunners if Tulowitzki is ever put on the block is St. Louis. That would be a nightmare scenario...

[MoreTrife]

This is probably more relevant for 2015 and beyond, but allegedly one of the early frontrunners if Tulowitzki is ever put on the block is St. Louis. That would be a nightmare scenario...

 

 

oh god...i just almost spit up my cereal. i didn't know he was on the block! please no! you're right, absolute nightmare!!

[monty57]

I think this was a pretty good read. The Brewers have been pretty-much injury free, and have had a number of over-performers, with few under-performers. Meanwhile, the rest of the division has had a lot of injuries and under-performing players. That pretty much needs to continue through the second half in order for the Brewers to win the division.

 

As to the Wild Card, I don't know how many games everyone has against everyone else, but generally it's tougher to make the WC in a division with four competitive teams than it is in a division with two good teams. Washington/Atlanta and San Fran/LAD get to beat up on Miami, NYM, Philly, Arizona, San Diego and Colorado, while all we get to beat up on are the Cubs.

[DuWayne Steurer]

This is probably more relevant for 2015 and beyond, but allegedly one of the early frontrunners if Tulowitzki is ever put on the block is St. Louis. That would be a nightmare scenario...

 

 

It bears mentioning that

 

1.) Tulo simply can't stay on the field.

 

2.) Tulo away from Coors is a pretty good hitter, not a great hitter.

[chewy522]

When thinking of matching up number 1 pitchers in a wild card game, it could be a close race to get in so teams might not be able to line up their pitchers the way they want. So, for example, if the dodgers need to win game 161 and 162 to get in, Kershaw will not necessarily be their wildcard game starter. So our well balanced pitching staff does not look so bad given the races are tight and teams can't line up their starters the way they want.

[Fear The Chorizo]

seeing that Tulowitzki cannot stay healthy over the course of a season (he hasn't played over 150 games since 2009), i don't see it as a nightmare scenario if the Cardinals give up 1/2 their farm system to acquire a great but likely diminishing player who will be getting paid a ton for a long time.

 

he's 29, so staying at SS and suddenly avoiding breaking down from injuries isn't very likely.

[Thurston Fluff]

The Brewers have been pretty-much injury free, and have had a number of over-performers, with few under-performers.

 

I guess that all depends on what you call over performing. I don't think Lucroy or Gomez are over performing for example. I think they are just very good and in the prime of their career. Maybe Gennett is but then again he has hit at every level and doesn't have to play against lefties. That he doesn't have to play vs lefties doesn't make his numbers over what he is capable of. It makes the team wise for not using him in a way that would make him worse. On the flip side I think Segura and Estrada are under performing as is Garza to some extent. Ultimately this team really does just have some very good players more than they have guys playing over their heads. The lack of injuries has been key. Especially considering depth is our biggest issue.

[SRB]

Injury free? Yeah right! Just imagine how far ahead we'd be if Wang had never gone to the DL.

[HiAndTight]

David Price just replaces the injured Michael Wacha (2.79 ERA, 3.05 FIP before his injury). I don't see how it dramatically improves the team they were in the first half.

 

The Brewers are much easier to improve because they've been filling positions with improvable players all season (like 1B and 5th SP), so any addition is truly an improvement and not just a replacement.

 

Right because everyone in the NL would be looking forward to Price, Wainwright, and Wacha in the post season... I know I'd feel great about those match-ups from a Brewer perspective...

 

 

Right, because you completely responded to the point that SRB made, which was how Price DOESN'T DRAMATICALLY IMPROVE THE TEAM THEY WERE IN THE FIRST HALF.

 

Do you know that Wacha is going to be coming back? Because according to the latest MRI and St Louis beat writers, Wacha is out until at least September.

 

So they get David Price. They are also without Molina likely the rest of the way.

 

 

So his point was that adding Price doesn't dramatically improve the team they had in the first half.

A team that may very well not have Wacha and if it does he may not be the same pitcher he was last year.

 

It's incredible how far less snide and condescending posts are scrutinized, yet Crew's never seem to be.

A team that won't have it's more valuable player during the second half.

[RightFieldCoder]

seeing that Tulowitzki cannot stay healthy over the course of a season (he hasn't played over 150 games since 2009), i don't see it as a nightmare scenario if the Cardinals give up 1/2 their farm system to acquire a great but likely diminishing player who will be getting paid a ton for a long time.

 

he's 29, so staying at SS and suddenly avoiding breaking down from injuries isn't very likely.

[sarcasm]We don't have to worry about the Cards trading for Rafael Furcal. He can't be healthy enough to stay on the field.[/sarcasm]