Jonathan Papelbon

[Bombers]

With the Brewers scouting the Phillies, I am thinking they are scouting Papelbon and his 1.34 ERA in 40 apperances. What would you be willing to trade for him? I am against trading arms so that leaves Haniger or Taylor, IMO.

 

I get Pap is under control for next year, so that is sort of the Phillies throwing in the towel on next years season. Especially if they dump Lee. But If I were them, they need to start aiming for 2016/2017.

 

• Howard's contract is atrocious and his last year is 2016.
  
• Utley has options starting in 2016 through 2018.
  
• Lee has a 2016 option.
  
• Rollins option will vest for 2015
  
• Cole Hamels has an option for 2019

 

So If they aim to just throw in the towel on 2015, unload players this year and next year, the Phillies could have a pretty quick turn around.

 

Papelbon's stats: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/papeljo01.shtml

[jerichoholicninja]

I don't know what it would take but I doubt he would be happy not closing.

[Roderick]

I get Pap is under control for next year, so that is sort of the Phillies throwing in the towel on next years season.

 

Don't they have two young pups that throw close to 100 throwing the 7/8 innings? I wouldn't think the Phillies would call it throwing in the towel on next season if they just move one of those guys into the closer role.

 

As for what it would take to get him, I have no idea, but it has to be less than Street. Street is signed and is only going to cost $7M in 2015, whereas Papelbon is signed for 2015 for $13M and will probably vest the 2016 option at $13M and Papelbon is three years older.

 

As for not closing, that would only be for the rest of this season. Under this scenario, I doubt KRod would be signed for 2015. He would just be brought in as an in season pickup.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd bet their scouting Grady Sizemore. The only reason Philly picked him up was to see if a couple good weeks could generate trade interest.

[Bombers]

Roderick - that is where I am coming from. Having Papelbon as our closer for the next few years sounds like a good idea to me. The Brewers team will be mostly intact from this year to 2015. We just need a new closer.

 

JB - I thought about that too, so I wish the Brewers would have picked him up when Boston cut him in mid June.

[Bnowell4evr]

I'd bet their scouting Grady Sizemore. The only reason Philly picked him up was to see if a couple good weeks could generate trade interest.

 

That would be my guess as well. Sizemore is an improvement over Schafer with the stick and can still play CF if needed.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd bet their scouting Grady Sizemore. The only reason Philly picked him up was to see if a couple good weeks could generate trade interest.

 

That would be my guess as well. Sizemore is an improvement over Schafer with the stick and can still play CF if needed.

 

Brewers haven't gotten the production out of the 4th OF spot and you can bet Melvin's been eyeing cheap veterans who might be available.

 

Unless the Brewers have had secret conversations about moving Braun to 1B and they are eyeing Byrd, I think it's Sizemore.

[monty57]

Roderick - that is where I am coming from. Having Papelbon as our closer for the next few years sounds like a good idea to me. The Brewers team will be mostly intact from this year to 2015. We just need a new closer.

 

I'd rather just extend K-Rod for another season for less than they'd have to pay Papelbon. I think the Brewers see Thornburg as their closer of the future, so one more year of K-Rod and then four years of a cheap Thornburg makes more sense then paying Papelbon that much money.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Would the Brewers go for Utley and Papelbon, Utley could play 1st and 2nd.

 

Lots of money to take on but.......

[Roderick]

Roderick - that is where I am coming from. Having Papelbon as our closer for the next few years sounds like a good idea to me. The Brewers team will be mostly intact from this year to 2015. We just need a new closer.

 

I'd rather just extend K-Rod for another season for less than they'd have to pay Papelbon. I think the Brewers see Thornburg as their closer of the future, so one more year of K-Rod and then four years of a cheap Thornburg makes more sense then paying Papelbon that much money.

 

I think we are spitballing people to add to the pen this year, because I would be willing to bet that Melvin makes a move for the pen. I wouldn't necessarily target Papelbon, I was just throwing my thoughts out there if he is the one we pick up. Picking up a guy that is proven veteran signed through 2015 isn't necessary by any means, but it would make it so that the Brewers don't overpay to keep any of the trio of KRod, Duke (who is earning himself quite a raise I bet), Gorzy.

 

So you figure for 2015 some combination of Thornburg, Smith, Kintzler, Henderson, Jeffress, Wooten, Fiers, Estrada plus who they re-sign or have traded for this season.

[HiAndTight]

Roderick - that is where I am coming from. Having Papelbon as our closer for the next few years sounds like a good idea to me. The Brewers team will be mostly intact from this year to 2015. We just need a new closer.

 

I'd rather just extend K-Rod for another season for less than they'd have to pay Papelbon. I think the Brewers see Thornburg as their closer of the future, so one more year of K-Rod and then four years of a cheap Thornburg makes more sense then paying Papelbon that much money.

 

 

I don't see anything that suggests the Brewers think Thornburg is their closer of the future.

 

I think Papelbon would be a great addition. He's still pitching great and could give us a great backend of the pen just like in 2011 when we traded for a top closer.

 

Papelbon's contract is expensive, but I would think if we gave up a couple of good prospects they'd be willing to take some money back. And I am not among those who is still confident that K-Rod is going to be a good closer next year or especially the next couple. If fact I worry about him struggling down the stretch this year.

 

Papelbon for Taylor+Jungman and the Phillies send 6-8 million back and I'd be thrilled with that deal.

[TURBO]

I think Jeffress is a better option as a possible future closer than Thornburg...

[benji]

I agree Jeffress very easily could be the closer next year

[HiAndTight]

I think Jeffress is a better option as a possible future closer than Thornburg...

 

Absolutely, and I would be fine with that because chances are that things won't go perfectly for us next year and we won't be in the same position we're in right now.

 

He needs to get his curve ball down, but between him and Henderson we have two good options.

 

The thing is, THIS YEAR, I don't really trust K-Rod, I don't want to put Jeffress in there in a ALDS game 5. So if we could make one move, Papelbon would be it. Or Uehara. People talk about the closer being overrated, but there is something to be said to having an experienced winner in the post-season with the game on the line.

 

But beyond that, you take Smith, Duke and Gorz and pair them with four right handers like Henderson, Jeffress, K-Rod, and Papelbon. You could carve up lineup's with R/L matchup's and close the game with whoever is throwing the best.

 

The problem is K-Rod is still pitching too good for us to trade for a pitcher the caliber of Papelbon IMO. Both have been among the best in the game, so it'd be tough to have either SU.

[sheetskout]

I would imagine Hellweg to be in that bullpen mix sometime soon. I'm a little surprised they haven't given up on him as a starter yet at Nashville.

[lcbj68c]

I don't see the obsession with Henderson. I've got a feeling he never gets a chance to close another game in his career. I think he'll end up being just a guy. To me, a ceiling for Henderson seems to be a solid 8th inning guy at this point.

[HiAndTight]

I don't see the obsession with Henderson. I've got a feeling he never gets a chance to close another game in his career. I think he'll end up being just a guy. To me, a ceiling for Henderson seems to be a solid 8th inning guy at this point.

 

I don't know how his ceiling could be lower than what he showed us last year. Maybe you're right and he won't be a closer again, but he was a closer last year and a very good one.

So it's been proven that his ceiling is that of a top very good closer.

75 K in 60 IP, 28 of 32 saves, 2.70 ERA and he can throw in the mid to upper 90's.

 

That's closer type stuff. And given the Brewers current situation, unless he suffers a serious injury, I would be shocked if he isn't our closer going into next year or at some point in the future. Though....I would prefer Papelbon closing for us.

[TheCrew07]

I would imagine Hellweg to be in that bullpen mix sometime soon. I'm a little surprised they haven't given up on him as a starter yet at Nashville.

 

You realize of course that he had TJ and didn't have any consistent command before the procedure and most players struggle with their command coming out rehab? He may figure it out, but he's also out of options so it might not even be with the Brewers.

 

Ariel Pena is in the same boat option wise, he may ultimately be a BP guy.

[Outlander]

Papelbon cleared waivers so it sure looks like that contract is scaring off a lot of teams. Maybe it really wouldn't take much at all to get him and the Phillies are looking more at salary relief. Huge risk but I think Melvin knows he doesn't really have a reliable set up man in Kintzler, Jeffress, Wooten or Estrada. You could kind of see it with Roenicke as well because he would rather Gorz face the right handed Sandoval than go with one of his righties against the lefty Sandoval.

[jjgott]

You could kind of see it with Roenicke as well because he would rather Gorz face the right handed Sandoval than go with one of his righties against the lefty Sandoval.

 

Sandoval is a way worse right handed hitter than a left handed one: http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/29212/pablo-sandoval

[Roderick]

I sure hope they pick up Papelbon, our pen is looking to be the downfall of this team. Since he cleared waivers, I hope the pricetag has dropped. All depends on how motivated Phillies mgmt feels compelled to make a trade, I suppose. I assume they aren't as they didn't get a deal done before the deadline.

 

Let's say we send over two of: Jungmann/Bradley/Gagnon/Pena and they pick up $5M of his 2015 cost? Would that be fair? We can even kick in H.Morris if the Phillies would pick up more. Chances are one of those pitchers would probably make the Phillies roster at some point on the cheap. And Papelbon pushes us over the hump and we win the central this year and he settles the closer spot for next years roster and he isn't totally toast when we are still on the hook for his contract in 2016.

 

I would think Papelbon could live without closing for what remains of this season if he knew he was the closer next year.

[Bombers]

For once I wish we were the Yankee's and could just take on Pap and Rollins.

[HiAndTight]

I would imagine Hellweg to be in that bullpen mix sometime soon. I'm a little surprised they haven't given up on him as a starter yet at Nashville.

 

You realize of course that he had TJ and didn't have any consistent command before the procedure and most players struggle with their command coming out rehab? He may figure it out, but he's also out of options so it might not even be with the Brewers.

 

Ariel Pena is in the same boat option wise, he may ultimately be a BP guy.

 

 

Actually, one of the benefits many pitchers find from Tommy John is that during their rehab, such an emphasis is placed upon repeating your delivery and your mechanics, that having TJ for a young pitcher very often HELPS improve their control and command.

 

Far from a guarantee, but I don't know why we'd be ruling Hellweg out of a future role in the BP....and late in the BP if in fact his command does indeed improve.

[HiAndTight]

Papelbon cleared waivers so it sure looks like that contract is scaring off a lot of teams. Maybe it really wouldn't take much at all to get him and the Phillies are looking more at salary relief. Huge risk but I think Melvin knows he doesn't really have a reliable set up man in Kintzler, Jeffress, Wooten or Estrada. You could kind of see it with Roenicke as well because he would rather Gorz face the right handed Sandoval than go with one of his righties against the lefty Sandoval.

 

 

The thing is, Papelbon has been so good for so long, that if we could just get Philly to pay 3-4 million over the life of the contract(2 million more if the option vests) I think he'd be worth it.

 

We're so close to having a really dominant bullpen. Just one really good right handed reliever. Kintzler does look better to me, but I've said that before this year. Jeffress looks great, but not as a SU guy just yet, more as a 6th-7th inning guy. And if Henderson came back....

 

I think the losses that we've suffered late in games, especially given who some of them were to in other years would have already crushed this team. We're lucky to be where we are right now and still fighting, but losing leads late in games to the Cards or other teams with really good starting pitchers who we've managed to get a lead on, that does more damage than just a single loss.

 

I would have claimed Papelbon. Worst case scenario you have an elite closer this off-season who is owed 13 million dollars with a vesting option that a team could work around. I think you would be able to trade that. Even if you had to then eat a little bit of the deal.

[RockCoCougars]

I think Papelbon would be a good get IF he were to come in and act like a professional and accept/earn his role. Given his past history, that's a big if. Not sure if it's true or not, but I've heard that he won't waive the no trade clause unless it is for a closer's job.