Brewers Bullpen

[Bombers]

I have been wondering what is going on with our Bullpen? In the start of the year, it appeared we could do no wrong. Now it appears not much is right. They currently have a team bullpen ERA of 3.61. That is ranked as 15th in all of MLB and 8th in the NL. 5 teams have a team bullpen era following us in the 3.6 -3.7 range. So we are not far off from being 13th ranked NL team on bullpen ERA either.

 

Injured:

Thornburg - Melvin said rehabbing reliever, Tyler Thornburg, who has been on the DL since early June because of a right elbow injury, is throwing off the mound in Arizona. “We hope to get him back at some point [before the end of this season],” Melvin said. (http://brewersbeat.mlblogs.com/)

 

Henderson - Last I heard Melvin talk about him, he said: "We're thinking Henderson will eventually get back, probably sooner than Thornburg," said Melvin. (http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/brewers-unlikely-to-make-big-move-before-trade-deadline-b99313634z1-267812941.html) .. Latest is he was bumped to AAA.

 

Here to stay:

K-Rod - I think he has been great this year and am probably in the minority where I am fine with him as our closer.

Smith - I certainly hope his "slider of death" returns and he reverts back to early season form.

Duke - He has been amazing.

Estrada - He is a great long man to have.

Gorzelanny - He has been great in his 10 appearances. 0 ERA.

 

Ones to replace:

Wooten - I think he should be sent down. It is just hard to get excited about a guy who can barely thrown 90. In 37 games he has a 4.32 ERA and is 1-4. Has a WHIP of 1.364

Kintzler - I would also send him down. In 38 games he has 3.71 ERA and is 1-3. Owns a WHIP of 1.500

 

Options for replacement

Jeffress - I am all aboard the bring up Jeffress train. He has a 1.51 ERA in 40 appearances in AAA.

Fiers - 2.68 ERA in 15 appearances. He was successful in his brief time up this year.

Trade - ? I am against this. I just don't see the need to send away top prospects when we have options in the minors.

[Bombers]

Ok - well then. I should hit page re-fresh before I post as I didn't see they called up Jeffress. Glad that is taken care of

[bjkrautk]

...there is that guy whose currently rehabbing his 11.12 ERA, almost entirely accumulated in games the team had already let get away. Might be skewing the aggregate totals a bit.

[torts]

BRING BACK WANG!!!

[brewmann04]

Duke and Gozo have been very good and Smith has been great,now hopefully we get Henderson and Jeffress to form a solid Righty combo.

[Bombers]

...there is that guy whose currently rehabbing his 11.12 ERA, almost entirely accumulated in games the team had already let get away. Might be skewing the aggregate totals a bit.

That is a good point. Doing a quick take on number minus WCW we would have a team bullpen ERA of 3.14. However, if we removed all teams worst reliever, everyone would bump down some. But probably not as drastic as .5 ....

[torts]

Kintzler is the next guy to go! I foresee Thorny hitting the 60-day soon to make room on the 40 man, Kintzy getting demoted to AAA and whoever is brought in trade taking his spot on the MLB roster

[igor67]

Wooten and Kintzler could be improved on, but they certainly weren't disasters. If DM can keep the system producing a few guys like that every year, who are cheap serviceable depth with options it adds a lot of value to the team especially with bullpen guys where they can go from stud to dud and back again fast, just keep moving those guys around to find which combo is working.

[JohnBriggs12]

Estrada is very expendable if they could find a team that wants him. I certainly wouldn't put him in the "here to stay" category. Yeah he got through 5 2/3 the other night but they weren't exactly clean innings, and the farther he is away from starting the less stretched out he'll be. He'll likely be non-tendered this winter anyway. I'm fine with Kintzler handling long relief role along with Gorzelanny. Kintzler just needed to get out of key late inning role.

[jerichoholicninja]

Sometimes bullpens are good. Sometimes bullpens are bad. Have we learned nothing here?

[Oxy]

Sometimes bullpens are good. Sometimes bullpens are bad. Have we learned nothing here?

 

 

Yep. One can come up with all sorts of theories and psychologies and strategies and whatnot, but bullpens are always fickle for everybody. Usually bullpens are one of the defining pieces that turn a good team into a great team. Their capriciousness is part of what keeps things interesting, I guess.

 

It seems to me that the best you can do is have a plethora of arms available and ride 'em when they are hot. Outside of Rivera and Hoffman, have there been any year-in-and year-out studly bullpen arms in the last 15 years? It seems like guys have at best a 2-3 year run of greatness then fall back to mediocre.

 

I think the Brewers have enough arms available to make it work, and make it work well.

[igor67]

I'd say our own K-rod had a really excellent decade in his 20's. Only one year his FIP ERA was over 4, most seasons it was low 3 or less. His K rate has remained pretty good, though not the ridiculous levels of his first couple of seasons and his walk rates have improved as well. In that way the only significant loss of skill has been a modest creep up in HR rates. Still the general point stands there only seem to be a handful of the elite bullpen guys who have any sort of real longevity.

[Patrick425]

I realize that this is not a popular opinion on this site, but in regards to the recent bullpen issues, I think part of the problem is that during the first half of the season the bullpen had to fill the hole left by basically having one less pitcher on the staff. I still think having Wang on the roster was a mistake. I know the popular opinion was that he was basically a "mop-up guy" and so it didn't matter, but he didn't even fill that role. I don't think there was another pitcher on any another team that was on the active roster for as long as Wang was and pitched as few innings as he did (I'm guessing no one is even close). So, other pitchers had to fill in for those missing innings during the first 3 months of the season and maybe we are now starting to see the effects of that, especially with Smith.

[PrinceFielderx1]

You build a bullpen around hard throwers that have control. You do that and you will have a very good bullpen most years. That's the way to do it and the best you can hope for.

[SRB]

I realize that this is not a popular opinion on this site, but in regards to the recent bullpen issues, I think part of the problem is that during the first half of the season the bullpen had to fill the hole left by basically having one less pitcher on the staff. I still think having Wang on the roster was a mistake. I know the popular opinion was that he was basically a "mop-up guy" and so it didn't matter, but he didn't even fill that role. I don't think there was another pitcher on any another team that was on the active roster for as long as Wang was and pitched as few innings as he did (I'm guessing no one is even close). So, other pitchers had to fill in for those missing innings during the first 3 months of the season and maybe we are now starting to see the effects of that, especially with Smith.

 

Nobody on the Brewers has thrown an inordinate number of innings though. K-Rod has the most (57.0 IP) and that only ranks 27th in MLB. Will Smith is at 55.1 IP, and everybody else in the bullpen is below 50 IP. Don't see how Wang-related overuse could possibly be an issue.

 

The Brewers bullpen as a whole has actually thrown the fifth fewest innings of any bullpen in baseball, and the third lowest in the NL.

 

*Edit* Didn't realize this, but on the season the Brewers bullpen as a whole has the best xFIP of any bullpen in baseball (3.33), even including Wang's innings and some other outliers. Seems like a pretty promising sign going forward.

[FVBrewerFan]

Or it helps prove how flawed a stat xFIP is.

[Thurston Fluff]

Gorzelanny has been back a little over 2 months and has pitched 14.1 innings. Wang was here for a little over 2 months and pitched 17 innings.

The reason they used the guys they did was the games dictated we use the best pitchers available. The most likely replacement for Wang would have been Wooten. Unless you think they would have used Wooten over Thornburg, Duke or Smith in tight games you are barking up the wrong tree.

[SRB]

Or it helps prove how flawed a stat xFIP is.

 

Not that complicated. If your bullpen strikes a lot of guys out, doesn't walk very many guys, and doesn't give up all fly balls, you're going to have a good bullpen over time.

[logan82]

I realize that this is not a popular opinion on this site, but in regards to the recent bullpen issues, I think part of the problem is that during the first half of the season the bullpen had to fill the hole left by basically having one less pitcher on the staff. I still think having Wang on the roster was a mistake. I know the popular opinion was that he was basically a "mop-up guy" and so it didn't matter, but he didn't even fill that role. I don't think there was another pitcher on any another team that was on the active roster for as long as Wang was and pitched as few innings as he did (I'm guessing no one is even close). So, other pitchers had to fill in for those missing innings during the first 3 months of the season and maybe we are now starting to see the effects of that, especially with Smith.

It looked worse than it really was because there were a lot of close games in the first month with a lot of bullpen innings. Mop up guys wouldn't have been used in those situations either way.

[Patrick425]

I realize that this is not a popular opinion on this site, but in regards to the recent bullpen issues, I think part of the problem is that during the first half of the season the bullpen had to fill the hole left by basically having one less pitcher on the staff. I still think having Wang on the roster was a mistake. I know the popular opinion was that he was basically a "mop-up guy" and so it didn't matter, but he didn't even fill that role. I don't think there was another pitcher on any another team that was on the active roster for as long as Wang was and pitched as few innings as he did (I'm guessing no one is even close). So, other pitchers had to fill in for those missing innings during the first 3 months of the season and maybe we are now starting to see the effects of that, especially with Smith.

 

Nobody on the Brewers has thrown an inordinate number of innings though. K-Rod has the most (57.0 IP) and that only ranks 27th in MLB. Will Smith is at 55.1 IP, and everybody else in the bullpen is below 50 IP. Don't see how Wang-related overuse could possibly be an issue.

 

The Brewers bullpen as a whole has actually thrown the fifth fewest innings of any bullpen in baseball, and the third lowest in the NL.

 

I guess this is the best "pro-Wang" argument I have seen. With Roenicke as the manager, the Brewers tend to use their bullpen less than most other teams in baseball. He has an obsession about trying to get 6 innings out of his starter.

 

It looked worse than it really was because there were a lot of close games in the first month with a lot of bullpen innings. Mop up guys wouldn't have been used in those situations either way.

 

This is the argument I don't agree with. Most team's "mop-up guys" are not pitchers that would never ever be used in any close games. They are capable MLB level players (Wang was not). If you have a string of close games you have to have at least a little faith in the "mop-up" to put him out there and give other guys in the bullpen a rest. The Brewers clearly had no faith in Wang to do that (and rightly so). Heck, they seemed hesitant to use him with a 4 or 5 run lead.

[Thurston Fluff]

With Roenicke as the manager, the Brewers tend to use their bullpen less than most other teams in baseball. He has an obsession about trying to get 6 innings out of his starter.

 

I think managers who don't have an obsession with getting six innings out of their starters are mostly ones in the unemployment line. Or soon to be on it.

[brewmann04]

Is that asking to much to ask a starter to give their team 6 innings .

[bani1717]

In the playoffs, yes that could very easily be too much. But ordinarily and at this point in the season, no.

[HiAndTight]

In the playoffs, yes that could very easily be too much. But ordinarily and at this point in the season, no.

 

 

In the playoffs you don't worry about usage. You may very well have Jimmy Nelson coming in throwing 95-96 and pitching two innings, or you might bring Duke into the game in the 6th inning depending on matchups. I've slowly gotten a little more confident about a potential post-season series. We still SHOULDN'T win vs of the other playoff staffs, but we have guys who can at least potentially matchup with other teams top pitchers.

[bani1717]

I completely agree... just trying to express my desire for Roenicke to be quicker on the bullpen trigger in the playoffs this time around, should we make it.