All things considered, Ryan Braun is having a great season

[Funketown]

It's not just the play last night, watching him all season he doesn't seem to make very many tough plays going back on the ball. When he's hitting .300/.360/.540 it's easier to dismiss his defensive flaws, but when he's putting up a .280/.330/.470 type of line with below average defense and earning ~$20 million, it's easy to see why there is frustration among fans.

 

The contract is by no means an albatross yet; even if he's a 130 wRC+ type of player and isn't too bad in the outfield, he'll be worth most of what he's getting paid. I'm just hoping that his defense doesn't get any worse in his 30's, and if it does, he's able to move to learn how to play 1B.

[lcbj68c]

Every player has flaws. Every player will decline in their career and earn more at the end of their career. There were years Ryan Braun made significantly less than he was worth and nobody said a word. There is going to come a point when he earns significantly more than he is worth. It is what it is.

[The stache]

As shown in his homer the night before last, his power is just fine.

 

Braun is still an elite talent. He's just not able to produce at an elite level because he has an injury in just about the worst place he could possibly have one. In his hands. Bat grip is everything. If you can't control the bat correctly, and by that I mean generate bat speed while meeting the ball squarely, you're not going to put up eye popping numbers.

[trwi7]

His power obviously isn't fine until they find some way to fix the thumb. I don't know why people have such a hard time admitting that.

[Funketown]

Braun's ISO:

 

2007 - 2012: 3,854 PA's, .255 ISO, ranked 7th out of 385 qualifying players

2013 - 2014: 706 PA's, .206 ISO, would be ranked 18th out of 126 qualifying players if Braun qualified

 

I'm not sure how you can possibly watch Braun this season and not be concerned about his power going forward. I don't know what's going on with his thumb, but something obviously isn't right with Braun.

[dlk9s]

Most people aren't saying it isn't a concern. Most people are saying that they aren't concerned about his post-PED ability/power, that even with the injury, he's still better than most players in the league.

 

We all know it's the thumb. It's completely obvious just by watching him hit. There's definite concern about the future of his thumb, but no concern over his general ability or if he'll decline without PED's.

[HiAndTight]

The problem with the thumb injury is they haven't been able to fix it. Surgery would make it numb and it isn't guaranteed to work anyways. A lot of rest between the suspension and spring training didn't make it better. So how exactly is the thumb not going to be a significant detriment for him going forward?

 

That's not the case. There are several different surgeries he could have. Simply removing the nerve causing him issues is the quickest fix, but not having feeling in your right thumb is a pretty significant sacrifice. I've had two surgeries on my thumb and have nerve damage and it's really unpleasant. You can do everything, but the lack of feeling is really hard to describe. It'd rather have pain in it at times than not have feeling. Another surgery to try to fix it could end up making it significantly worse.

 

But the third option could fix the problem. The problem is that could keep him out for a long time, 6-9 months. I'm guessing that's the route he goes this off-season in order to try and get healthy, but who knows.

 

As for why he's not pulling the ball, according to him, the thumb has made him tentative. It's not that he can't because of the thumb or oblique, it's because when he gets jammed it's extremely painful. It's psychological as much as physical for him(again, that's according to comments I've heard him make). But I know it stings a little to get jammed normally, I can only imagine how much it'd hurt with a bad thumb.

[HiAndTight]

His power obviously isn't fine until they find some way to fix the thumb. I don't know why people have such a hard time admitting that.

 

 

Agreed. There is a difference between, "he's still a really good player even with the injury," and "his power is fine."

 

If his power was fine, he wouldn't be missing so many mistakes on the inner half.

If his power was fine, he wouldn't have moved even further off the plate(he already stands father off the plate than anyone I've seen).

If his power was fine, he'd.....be better. Ryan Braun doesn't even think his power is fine.

 

We're lucky he's a great player so that when he's not healthy he's still a good player...but I still want that great player back, and if that means he has surgery right after this season and doesn't come back until next June, so be it. I just hope he can get it fixed.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Braun is still a relatively productive player. Yes, he's not a superstar, but at this point I don't think we need to start wringing our hands and chewing our nails just yet. He's still able to hit, hit for some power, and provide good middle of the order production. I think we all understand that the thumb issue is what it is. But Braun is, and was going to be underpaid for what he was doing with the bat, even going forward. I don't think this is an issue unless he turns into a sub - .725 OPS guy. We're not there yet, so I think the best thing to do is ride it out and see what the options are with the thumb. He's 30, it's not like he's an older guy with a 'bad' body type like a Mo Vaughn or someone like that.

[SRB]

Braun's ISO:

 

2007 - 2012: 3,854 PA's, .255 ISO, ranked 7th out of 385 qualifying players

2013 - 2014: 706 PA's, .206 ISO, would be ranked 18th out of 126 qualifying players if Braun qualified

 

I'm not sure how you can possibly watch Braun this season and not be concerned about his power going forward. I don't know what's going on with his thumb, but something obviously isn't right with Braun.

 

That's a convenient way of framing it. If you break his ISO out year-by-year, then it's clear that he's had down years in the past with even lower ISO than in 2014.

 

ISO

2007: .310 (492 PA)

2008: .268

2009: .231

2010: .197

2011: .265

2012: .276

2013: .200 (253 PA)

2014: .209

 

In your splits, the first number if brought up by Braun's insane 2007 season, and the second number is brought down by his injuries in 2013-14. But going forward (beyond this season) I see no reason not to expect his ISO to bounce around his career mark of .247

[Funketown]

How is that "convenient"? As far as future projections, the most recent seasons are the most relevant.

 

Edit: Although from what you're saying it sounds like we're basically saying the same thing. I'm concerned about Braun's power because I'm concerned about his tendency to struggle with these nagging injuries. When healthy, perhaps it is reasonable to still think he'll hit like he did a few years ago, but he's got to get that thumb healthy. I don't know much about these surgeries, but 6-9 months after the season is over in (hopefully late) October would likely have him back before the All-Star break. If that's the price to get him healthy, it seems like a pretty reasonable route to take.

[HiAndTight]

Braun's ISO:

 

2007 - 2012: 3,854 PA's, .255 ISO, ranked 7th out of 385 qualifying players

2013 - 2014: 706 PA's, .206 ISO, would be ranked 18th out of 126 qualifying players if Braun qualified

 

I'm not sure how you can possibly watch Braun this season and not be concerned about his power going forward. I don't know what's going on with his thumb, but something obviously isn't right with Braun.

 

That's a convenient way of framing it. If you break his ISO out year-by-year, then it's clear that he's had down years in the past with even lower ISO than in 2014.

 

ISO

2007: .310 (492 PA)

2008: .268

2009: .231

2010: .197

2011: .265

2012: .276

2013: .200 (253 PA)

2014: .209

 

In your splits, the first number if brought up by Braun's insane 2007 season, and the second number is brought down by his injuries in 2013-14. But going forward (beyond this season) I see no reason not to expect his ISO to bounce around his career mark of .247

 

 

I don't think it's convenient I think it's just straight forward and clearly illustrates when Braun started to decline. And the reason to not expect his ISO to bounce around his career mark is injuries. You write off the past two years to injuries, but the fact is he may deal with his thumb injury for the rest of his career, and he's going to be 31. I don't see any reason right now to expect his ISO to match his prime-healthy(and frankly PED aided) seasons.

 

 

I do hope he has surgery, that it works out as well, and he can put up a couple more big seasons, but at this point he's over 100 points below his career OPS, his BA is down about 35 points and his power is obviously zapped. So surgery seems worth the risk at this point.

[Pugger]

His power obviously isn't fine until they find some way to fix the thumb. I don't know why people have such a hard time admitting that.

 

What exactly is wrong with his thumb? I've heard a lot of different things...

[SRB]

How is that "convenient"? As far as future projections, the most recent seasons are the most relevant.

 

Edit: Although from what you're saying it sounds like we're basically saying the same thing. I'm concerned about Braun's power because I'm concerned about his tendency to struggle with these nagging injuries. When healthy, perhaps it is reasonable to still think he'll hit like he did a few years ago, but he's got to get that thumb healthy. I don't know much about these surgeries, but 6-9 months after the season is over in (hopefully late) October would likely have him back before the All-Star break. If that's the price to get him healthy, it seems like a pretty reasonable route to take.

 

By "convenient" I just mean you're lumping together a bunch of seasons and comparing it against (basically, since 2013 was shortened) this season by itself, which obscures the fact that Braun's ISO has been up and down throughout his career, including a full-season mark lower than 2014 when Braun wasn't injured (as far as I remember).

 

Obviously I am slightly concerned too, but I don't think we are anywhere near definitive evidence that Braun is in decline or that his thumb is that big of a problem.

[sheetskout]

RT @bachlaw: Amusing fact: post-Biogenesis Ryan Braun, with his chronic thumb injury, has a higher ISO (.204) than Miguel Cabrera (.198)

[lcbj68c]

Braun is still a relatively productive player. Yes, he's not a superstar, but at this point I don't think we need to start wringing our hands and chewing our nails just yet. He's still able to hit, hit for some power, and provide good middle of the order production. I think we all understand that the thumb issue is what it is. But Braun is, and was going to be underpaid for what he was doing with the bat, even going forward. I don't think this is an issue unless he turns into a sub - .725 OPS guy. We're not there yet, so I think the best thing to do is ride it out and see what the options are with the thumb. He's 30, it's not like he's an older guy with a 'bad' body type like a Mo Vaughn or someone like that.

 

+Infinity. That worthwhile post was a joy to read.

[torts]

His power obviously isn't fine until they find some way to fix the thumb. I don't know why people have such a hard time admitting that.

 

What exactly is wrong with his thumb? I've heard a lot of different things...

 

nothing. everything.

[Invader3K]

He hit another home run tonight. Looks like he's doing OK to me, adjustments or not.

[torts]

to left center in a deep park, too.

[Fear The Chorizo]

He's never had a great walk rate, but this year it's lower than other years - likely because he's been challenged more at the plate due to the nagging injuries and periods where he's scuffling. The thumb is definitely an issue when it comes to his power - 2013 and 2014 are by far his lowest slugging % seasons. Hoping he's able to overcome that issue somehow and get back to the mid .500's or better slugger he had established himself to be.

 

Braun's still in the top 30 of all MLB in OPS - he's having a solid season while dealing with various ailments, and the counting stats look pretty good considering the time missed with the DL stint...just not the MVP-caliber production he put up in 2011 or 2012.

[3and2Fastball]

If he can be reasonably healthy, he should have a tremendous road trip this week, as he has historically been great in San Diego and even better in San Francisco, and he seems to be on a hot streak (hitting safely in 8 of the last 9 games). Last night was certainly a great start

[The stache]

I made the mistake of singing Ryan's praises after game one, even going so far as to predict that he would have a stellar final 30 games. Then he went 0 for 8 with 4 Ks in the final two games.

 

As one that believes in reverse psychology, let me say that Ryan is going to suck the remainder of the season. He's going to show absolutely no power, he'll look like the second coming of Fred Merkle on the basepaths, and he'll drop balls left and right in right field.

 

Ryan Braun will not play well, the Brewers won't make the playoffs, and I won't be happy come October.

[1992casey]

What exactly is wrong with his thumb? I've heard a lot of different things...

It's a nerve issue. While surgery is an option, it's far from guaranteed that it would be successful.

[The stache]

Ya, the nerve issue makes it so Ryan can't tell how tightly he's gripping the bat, and that causes swelling and blisters. That's got to be a real pain to try and play through.

[torts]

best article ive seen yet detailing the injury braun has

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/8/28/6075061/ryan-braun-hand-injury-brewers