All things considered, Ryan Braun is having a great season

[Fear The Chorizo]

when hitting to the opposite field, most hitters don't want to "roll over" the bath with their hands - instead you'd want to hit with a strong top hand, and drive the ball to right field with your legs and leverage more than handspeed whipping through the ball.

 

If Braun's thumb is bothering him, and it almost assuredly is, the first thing that would go away would be his ability to whip the hands through the zone when pulling a ball - that added batspeed on inside pitches is what helps generate backspin on baseball...so instead of line drives in the gap or right at outfielders, that little extra whipping action caused by firing the hands through backspins the ball and turns it into a 400' pitching wedge that ends up in the left field seats. Whipping the hands starts in the wrists, but the right thumb is the lever behind the bat as it's contacting the ball. If the lever isn't solid or it's painful when putting that kind of torque on it, it's very tough to elevate the baseball when pulling it.

[The stache]

He has a 1500 ops on balls to the opposite field...that's pretty good. I'm hopeful his power is down due to injuries. Only he knows for sure.

 

I think his power decline is most definitely due to a combination of injuries. He came into the season with the thumb being an issue, but it didn't seem to be affecting his power too much early on. In his first 18 games, he had 6 home runs, including a 3 home run and a 2 home run game. I know he started developing some blisters because he wasn't able to feel how tightly he was gripping the bat, but he was able to deal with it. I think once the abdominal muscle became an issue, that's when his power really started to decrease. Hopefully, that has subsided, and judging from his hitting the last week and a half or so, it may be a thing of the past. He's started pulling the ball to left field with some authority.

 

It's not a stretch to think he could end up with 25 home runs if he stays healthy.

[PrinceFielderx1]

What power decline?

[adambr2]

36th of 57 qualifying outfielders in WAR. Last among ours. OPS dipping near .800.

 

His season is disappointing and his contract extension may end up being devastating.

[fondybrewfan]

Its not like we are paying him $25 Million a year during that extension; it tops out at $19 Million. That is probably an amount the Brewers could afford to be a complete sunk cost and still field a competitive team if it is assumed the payroll is around $100 to $120 Million when that $19 Million number hits. We aren't talking Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, or Miggy here.

[SRB]

$19M is far from "devastating" over the next few years. What is the market rate for WAR now, $6-7M/WAR?

 

His defense is the main culprit (according to UZR). I still think moving him to 1B makes a lot of sense. Reduces wear and tear and hopefully keeps him healthier too.

[davego]

I hope first is considered for 2015.

[Funketown]

It should be considered, but we certainly can't dismiss the possibility that the reason the club hasn't already moved him there is that they don't think he could hack it. He's decent in the outfield, so for me the main reason I'd want him moved is if the club thinks it would be easier for him to stay healthy.

[TheCrew07]

Devastating is a relative term, $19 million is still 15.8% of the $120 million payroll which was postulated...

 

For comparison sake the majority of us thought Bill Hall's $6.925 million in 2009 was too much dead weight and that was 8.63% of the Brewers' $80,182,502 2009 payroll.

 

Braun's first extension was perfect, the second extension not so much, and if in fact Braun misses a year or completely falls apart at the end of his contract $19 million is an avalanche of dead money, there's no excusing it away.

[trwi7]

What is the market rate for WAR now, $6-7M/WAR?

 

I hate this argument because we can't pay the market rate for WAR. Our margin of error is still smaller than other teams' so spending $18 million for a 3 WAR player is different here than it is in LA, Philly, Chicago or even St. Louis.

[danzig6767]

Unless a player is in his early 20's like say Mike Trout is, signing guys to 8-10 year contracts at big money is being shown to be much more likely to end poorly than work out well for the teams doing so. The risk factor is so high.

 

The scary thing about Braun is whether it's the thumb sucking his power, no longer using PED's, or maybe a combination of both, this has the potential of the Brewers never seeing elite Braun again.

[SRB]

What is the market rate for WAR now, $6-7M/WAR?

 

I hate this argument because we can't pay the market rate for WAR. Our margin of error is still smaller than other teams' so spending $18 million for a 3 WAR player is different here than it is in LA, Philly, Chicago or even St. Louis.

 

That's not exactly true though. Any free agent we sign is going to be close to the perceived market value for his services. It's not like Doug Melvin has some magic to make people sign here for less than they are valued on the market.

 

The issue with being a small market (not entirely clear that Milwaukee has a small market payroll anymore though) is that we can't pay market value for superstar players, because it's tying too much money up in one guy. But the market value for superstar players now and in coming years is like $30M/season, not $19M.

 

Paying market value for 3 WAR or so is perfectly fine. Heck, even without factoring in option guarantees A-Ram is making $16M and Garza/Gallardo are going to be making $13M. I fail to see how the extra $3-5M (which prevents you from signing what, a Todd Coffey or a Tom Gorzelanny?) is a disastrous contract for the Brewers.

 

It's a pretty reasonable contract for a former MVP. And $19M is the peak, it's not backloaded at the tail end of his career. When Braun is A-Ram's current age (36), he will actually be making the same as A-Ram is making in 2014 ($16M).

[DocLuna7]

There are so many unknowns that I think it is way too early to call the Braun extension a bad contract yet. I am hoping that Braun's thumb is the reason his power numbers are down this year and the optimist in me still thinks that that's the case. Having played baseball for a long time myself I can imagine that an injury to a thumb ligament would be particularly hard to produce with. I think the other thing to consider is how the value of contracts have continually risen each season. Locking up a guy who is even decent for the long-term and paying him $16 million or whatever his final year calls for him to get, could be a steal by then.

[MNBrew]

I think it's incredibly obvious that the thumb injury is the answer to the power issue.

 

No one was tested more than Braun in 2012, and his numbers all-around were as good or better than in his MVP year of 2011. Once the thumb thing came into play, everything changed. He's still pretty darn productive, just not with the HRs.

 

In these days of tabloid journalism, self-righteous or haughty mistrust, and all-or-nothing perceptions by many across society, I think it's important to keep in mind that there's not a one of us that can pretend to know exactly how painful his thumb issue actually is or the extent to which it's affecting his game (though the extent to which he's hitting the ball to the right half of the diamond does make for a rather obvious suggestion).

 

I'm not saying the thumb issue is everything, as, for instance, his chase rate is quite lousy by his prior standards, but I do think it's the key issue.

[SRB]

He's also had a full season (2010) with a worse ISO than he has this season, so the argument that this is just "Braun without PEDs" makes no sense.

 

He's having a down year, probably due to lingering injuries, and is still doing pretty darn good minus the defensive metrics. No reason to panic.

[trwi7]

The problem with the thumb injury is they haven't been able to fix it. Surgery would make it numb and it isn't guaranteed to work anyways. A lot of rest between the suspension and spring training didn't make it better. So how exactly is the thumb not going to be a significant detriment for him going forward?

[Invader3K]

Overall, Braun is still a very good player. He's just not having a great season...and it will remain to be seen if he returns to his past levels of greatness, or if this is a start of a gradual decline. I do think the thumb injury is really affecting him more than most want to admit.

 

I do think his defense overall has looked solid in right field...seems like he's taken to the position way better than Corey Hart ever did. Of course, the missed fly ball late in the game yesterday will again bring up questions about his defensive capability.

[FVBrewerFan]

If this the "new normal" for Braun, his contract moving forward will be higher than his WAR would dictate. But at least you're still getting production out of him, it's not a total loss by any means.

[dlk9s]

I really wish he would just get back on PED's already. His hair hasn't been the same.

[3and2Fastball]

yesterday's game illustrated why Braun should be in LF when Parra is in the game. Anything else is just silly. Braun drops a fly ball that Parra would have caught with ease and would have ended the inning, and the next batter hits a HR. Little things like that add up over the course of a game or season.

 

Braun is still a very good player who is capable of great things.....

[1992casey]

I'm not saying the thumb issue is everything, as, for instance, his chase rate is quite lousy by his prior standards, but I do think it's the key issue.

 

Something like chase rate could easily be the consequence of trying new things, i.e. hitting to the opposite field way more often than in previous years.

[The stache]

Braun's power is just fine. The last home run he hit a few nights ago was an opposite field home run at Chavez Ravine...at night. I've heard more times than I can remember that hitting opposite field home runs at Dodger Stadium, particularly at night, is one of the hardest things to accomplish in baseball. The home run before that was an absolute bomb to left center field, 440 feet. When he connects with the ball square on, he's driving the hell out of the ball. But he's not able to meet the ball square on because his swing has being ravaged by this thumb issue. At certain times during the season, he's appeared like the Ryan Braun of old. He hit 3 home runs in a 5 game span not too long ago. Then he slumped again. He got down to the upper .270s, went on a 13 or 14 game hitting streak, and was back over .300. Now he's back in the mid .270s.

 

It's not Braun's power that is missing. It's his ability to hit the ball squarely and drive it that is. He's having to take more chances because he just can't make adjustments once his swing has begun.

 

I'm fully confident that if his thumb heals, he will be the same player we've become used to since 2007. I just hope that happens.

[3and2Fastball]

Braun is increasingly a defensive liability in RF

[MNBrew]

Braun is increasingly a defensive liability in RF

Because he made an error last night? I don't think so. The occasional error will happen even with the best players, preposterous as that seems with so many people's expectations so high, media coverage so high, and patience/tolerance consequently so low.

 

Gomez has made a couple dumb errors (whether called an error or not) in CF recently, but I don't think it means he's increasingly a defensive liability in CF.

[dlk9s]

Braun's OF weakness is definitely going back on balls. He seems good (eye test) side to side and is surprisingly decent on balls in front of him (meaning tough plays, not simple fly balls that he runs in a few steps for). Cannon, obviously.

 

People just have to stop worrying so much. Barely any player is amazing at everything. I know we're all concerned about his health and that the drop in offensive prowess this season makes his defense more important, but let's not go nuts because the guy has trouble catching the occasional ball at the wall.